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This Explains a Lot

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garyo1954's avatar - garyo
Dallas, Texas
United States
Member #4549
May 2, 2004
1684 Posts
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Posted: October 18, 2014, 10:45 pm - IP Logged

So I was playing with percentages....well, actually, I was playing with percentages in 2 step (again), when it occurred that it would be cool to the percentages for a Pick3 game. Never know. Some number might be hitting 92.837%, making it the ultimate Pick3 winner in the history of the world.

Didn't choose Texas for this. Wanted a LOT of data for obvious reasons. And since I already picked on the Ramblin' Wreck and Bulldogs (Georgia), and had most of that data, I updated it.  Didn't update like I wanted. The Midday and Evening data are flipped, but for this it will be fine. Trust me. Or don't.

They key here is every time the question is asked, "What is the average number of draws before a number come up?" the answer is, "The expectancy is about 2.5 draws."

So here's the true, honest-to-goodness, no-doubt-about-it, positively, absolutely, for real answer (at least in Georgia......

 

13,282 draws later we got a bunch of....uh, stuff, which tells us.....stuff. So let's see if we can make sense of what this stuff is all about.

N1, N2, N3, SUM = Number 1, Number2, Number 3, Sum; 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 = the numbers; C for Current (how long they are currently outin all positions.

First thing we see the game has leveled out. Not going to be a lot of changes in this game. If you need proof, look at the 5 column. 13 draws ago it was hitting 26.85%. Since then it has hit 8 times and only increased that percentage by .03%. 

More proof? Look at the 1 column. 1 has been out 10 draws in all positions and it has lost only .02%.

Safe bet these numbers will remain another 13000 draws.

The percentage below the number, for example the 27.15% below the 1, is the average percentage from the first draw. The greatest fluctuation is about .6% (digit 2).

And then the little number down there in the strange looking yellow. He's the average number of draws it takes that digit to hit!

Guess it is safe to say about 2.5 is the average number of draws before any number is expected to hit. And now we have proof.

G

My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"