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Markov Chains in Lottery Games

Topic closed. 26 replies. Last post 2 years ago by SergeM.

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NASHVILLE, TENN
United States
Member #33372
February 20, 2006
1044 Posts
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Posted: November 7, 2014, 12:46 pm - IP Logged

I would think that using Markov chains for the powerball or mega number would be effective than using the theory on combinations of numbers.

 

I could be wrong; I usually am.  Have you tried this on the bonus ball drawings?  If so, what were your results.

    SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
    Economy class
    Belgium
    Member #123700
    February 27, 2012
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    Posted: November 7, 2014, 4:39 pm - IP Logged

    The question is what are the probabilities. Than what will be the outcome after a series of experiments.

    The post is mainly about followers and their frequencies as I could read. Mainly it is not about Markov, as I saw no probability and no decisions model. I saw no Euler and no matrix. The post must be about a program, not about Markov chains.

      stoopendaal's avatar - archer

      Netherlands
      Member #3476
      January 24, 2004
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      Posted: November 8, 2014, 5:38 am - IP Logged

      The program is merely a Markov Chain text generator for (lottery) numbers. All the tool does is to link each number to a list of numbers for the imported draw results. Like  Tialuvslotto said  "Still, any information is useful, and this is one tool to help dial in good numbers to play"

      No transition matrix is needed to be described because the previous state (winning numbers) has no influence on the next state when lottery draws are trained.

       

      Here an interesting post about studying the behaviour of a lotto game using the analysis of Markov Chains. http://home.yiqingliang.com/2013/11/15/lotto-a-faithful-statistic-follower/

        Tialuvslotto's avatar - Jailin
        Texas
        United States
        Member #150797
        December 31, 2013
        815 Posts
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        Posted: November 8, 2014, 8:01 am - IP Logged

        The program is merely a Markov Chain text generator for (lottery) numbers. All the tool does is to link each number to a list of numbers for the imported draw results. Like  Tialuvslotto said  "Still, any information is useful, and this is one tool to help dial in good numbers to play"

        No transition matrix is needed to be described because the previous state (winning numbers) has no influence on the next state when lottery draws are trained.

         

        Here an interesting post about studying the behaviour of a lotto game using the analysis of Markov Chains. http://home.yiqingliang.com/2013/11/15/lotto-a-faithful-statistic-follower/

        Very interesting link, Stoopendaal!  I would agree with the author that the accuracy of this method is only around 20%.

        "There is no such thing as luck; only adequate or inadequate preparation to cope with a statistical universe."

        ~Robert A. Heinlein

          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
          mid-Ohio
          United States
          Member #9
          March 24, 2001
          19825 Posts
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          Posted: November 8, 2014, 12:52 pm - IP Logged

          The program is merely a Markov Chain text generator for (lottery) numbers. All the tool does is to link each number to a list of numbers for the imported draw results. Like  Tialuvslotto said  "Still, any information is useful, and this is one tool to help dial in good numbers to play"

          No transition matrix is needed to be described because the previous state (winning numbers) has no influence on the next state when lottery draws are trained.

           

          Here an interesting post about studying the behaviour of a lotto game using the analysis of Markov Chains. http://home.yiqingliang.com/2013/11/15/lotto-a-faithful-statistic-follower/

          It's interesting that your link had a link to Expert Lotto software.  In the past there have been several members that used that software exclusively and while their prediction statistics were among the top 10% they never scored a major hit.  Perhaps it's time to take another look at it with a fresh approach.

           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
             
                       Evil Looking       

            stoopendaal's avatar - archer

            Netherlands
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            January 24, 2004
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            Posted: November 9, 2014, 3:56 pm - IP Logged

            Hi,

            I added a quick pick generator to the program using the generated Markov Chains/followers from the imported lottery draw results.

            Instructions:

            step 1. Import lottery draw results

            step 2. Hit the button 'C.Generate Markov Chains'

            step 3. Select the number of picks to generate (5 up to 50)

            step 4. optional: sort numbers, show average occurrence, show match with numbers

            step 5. And finally hit the 'Generate Picks' button

            I have also added a feature that shows the match of entered numbers (combination) with each of the generated picks (now only for jackpot games) 

            pick generator

              SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
              Economy class
              Belgium
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              February 27, 2012
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              Posted: November 9, 2014, 5:46 pm - IP Logged

              After that you need to check what your automated picks have cost and what they paid over a long period. How good does your system do compared to the expectancy of the game plaid?

                RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

                United States
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                March 13, 2008
                3966 Posts
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                Posted: November 9, 2014, 6:06 pm - IP Logged

                It's interesting that your link had a link to Expert Lotto software.  In the past there have been several members that used that software exclusively and while their prediction statistics were among the top 10% they never scored a major hit.  Perhaps it's time to take another look at it with a fresh approach.

                RJ

                I came away from the article with the opinion that expert lotto offered no mathematical advantage. 

                Every lottery system I have ever tested relies on some type of conditional element.  If the elements

                are factored back in then the we will wind up back where we started.   Some software's require the

                user to make choices while others make choices for us but in the end nothing will ever move us any

                closer to a JP win unless we are able to calculate the seed value for RNG based draws.  There are

                many observable data's which can be applied to lower prizes but the big one will always be fair game

                for any line played.   Markov chains can help us zero in on the degree of advantage for the method

                under test but with random anything can happen.  Random will disrupt the best laid plans and we best

                remember that.  Most things come very easy for me, lottery however is my personal Professor Moriarty.

                RL

                Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                  US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

                  RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                  mid-Ohio
                  United States
                  Member #9
                  March 24, 2001
                  19825 Posts
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                  Posted: November 11, 2014, 1:47 pm - IP Logged

                  RJ

                  I came away from the article with the opinion that expert lotto offered no mathematical advantage. 

                  Every lottery system I have ever tested relies on some type of conditional element.  If the elements

                  are factored back in then the we will wind up back where we started.   Some software's require the

                  user to make choices while others make choices for us but in the end nothing will ever move us any

                  closer to a JP win unless we are able to calculate the seed value for RNG based draws.  There are

                  many observable data's which can be applied to lower prizes but the big one will always be fair game

                  for any line played.   Markov chains can help us zero in on the degree of advantage for the method

                  under test but with random anything can happen.  Random will disrupt the best laid plans and we best

                  remember that.  Most things come very easy for me, lottery however is my personal Professor Moriarty.

                  RL

                  True but software not only track past drawings but assists a player in developing a strategy for future drawings.  I always assumed software doesn't have a working strategy or it wouldn't be for sale, a players have to develop his own using lottery software only as a tool.

                   * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                     
                               Evil Looking       

                    SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
                    Economy class
                    Belgium
                    Member #123700
                    February 27, 2012
                    4035 Posts
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                    Posted: November 27, 2014, 6:38 pm - IP Logged

                    I had a look, how the distribution is for trailers. It appeared that for some time a number wouldn't follow another number. That gap is eventually filled some day, avg 0.04 value below, for two numbers count. The graph won't paste, it has a Poisson shape.

                     

                    0,04
                    0,11
                    0,49
                    1,13
                    2,40
                    3,64
                    4,98
                    5,80
                    6,87
                    5,00
                    4,60
                    3,40
                    2,56
                    2,07
                    0,84
                    0,51
                    0,31
                    0,18
                    0,02
                    0,02
                    0,02
                      SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
                      Economy class
                      Belgium
                      Member #123700
                      February 27, 2012
                      4035 Posts
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                      Posted: November 27, 2014, 6:42 pm - IP Logged

                      Column A: trailer frequency 

                      Column B: frequency (trailer frequency)

                      02
                      15
                      222
                      351
                      4108
                      5164
                      6224
                      7261
                      8309
                      9225
                      10207
                      11153
                      12115
                      1393
                      1438
                      1523
                      1614
                      178
                      181
                      191
                      201

                      Some boring statistics

                        SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
                        Economy class
                        Belgium
                        Member #123700
                        February 27, 2012
                        4035 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: November 27, 2014, 6:48 pm - IP Logged
                        x123456789101112
                        11254883106513108
                        277121115712148773
                        3101265678912765
                        4611561085841388
                        588765891111899
                        665779789124713
                        7997789141175512
                        810661488610911114
                        91110661281398685
                        1012125541097711104
                        11611987681268810
                        1210126868786965

                        ... 45 * 45