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Best time to play for a Single digit??

Topic closed. 18 replies. Last post 2 years ago by Kola.

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WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
Stone Mountain*Georgia
United States
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November 2, 2002
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Posted: November 25, 2014, 12:19 pm - IP Logged

                When is the best time to play for a single digit? US Flag

   Some say wait until it's missing for x amount of time.

         Some say .....play it as a straight and wait until it goes missing in ONE position forx amount of time. 

              ......and some say "hey, a digit will hit most often on an average of every 3 days"  So, they logic it out by saying "Let's focus on that ....just play it every 3rd missing day"   

                         

 

 

The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                              Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                              Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                       Win d    

    winsumloosesum's avatar - Lottery-060.jpg
    Pennsylvania
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    Member #2218
    September 1, 2003
    5396 Posts
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    Posted: November 25, 2014, 12:45 pm - IP Logged

    If any digit in all 3 positions reach 10 skips I would play that digit as a double or if playing by position use the longest out skip for that digit by position.

    Example,

    Digit 7

    Position 1 skip = 10

    Position 2 skip = 32

    Position 3 skip = 25

    I would play the 7 in Position 2

    Or

    Play a "mirror" from the previous draw by position

    Mirrors

    0 & 5

    1 & 6

    2 & 7

    3 & 8

    4 & 9

    So, using the example above I would look for a digit 2 that fell in the previous draw or 2 and play the digit 7 from the digit 2.

      WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
      Stone Mountain*Georgia
      United States
      Member #828
      November 2, 2002
      10491 Posts
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      Posted: November 25, 2014, 2:57 pm - IP Logged

      If any digit in all 3 positions reach 10 skips I would play that digit as a double or if playing by position use the longest out skip for that digit by position.

      Example,

      Digit 7

      Position 1 skip = 10

      Position 2 skip = 32

      Position 3 skip = 25

      I would play the 7 in Position 2

      Or

      Play a "mirror" from the previous draw by position

      Mirrors

      0 & 5

      1 & 6

      2 & 7

      3 & 8

      4 & 9

      So, using the example above I would look for a digit 2 that fell in the previous draw or 2 and play the digit 7 from the digit 2.

      Thanks Steve. 

        Also we need to check out the space ......in or around the 6 times due region for a single digit.  The 16,17,18 area. 

       Although there are more spots where long out digits appear to collect...... there are what some would consider better targets for betting and with better successes. Better for what is called our "Degree of Certainty." 

       So, what's better .......frequency or Degree of Certainty?  For me and my money ....I use the latter. 

         Some think they would be the same thing .....just like the best Doubles trap area. It's a little counter intuitive but they are not always the same places. 

       

       

      The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                    Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                    Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                             Win d    

        Avatar

        United States
        Member #41846
        June 23, 2006
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        Posted: November 26, 2014, 5:28 am - IP Logged

        Thanks Steve. 

          Also we need to check out the space ......in or around the 6 times due region for a single digit.  The 16,17,18 area. 

         Although there are more spots where long out digits appear to collect...... there are what some would consider better targets for betting and with better successes. Better for what is called our "Degree of Certainty." 

         So, what's better .......frequency or Degree of Certainty?  For me and my money ....I use the latter. 

           Some think they would be the same thing .....just like the best Doubles trap area. It's a little counter intuitive but they are not always the same places. 

        WIND  you lost me with the 16,17,18 . I don't understand where that came from. can you elaborate please.  also do you have a formula for calculating degree of certainty?

          LottoBux's avatar - 2elh5if
          Ontario
          Canada
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          Posted: November 26, 2014, 6:16 am - IP Logged

          WIND  you lost me with the 16,17,18 . I don't understand where that came from. can you elaborate please.  also do you have a formula for calculating degree of certainty?

           "an average of every 3 days"  X  "in or around the 6 times due region"=~18

                                 

            Tialuvslotto's avatar - Jailin
            Texas
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            Posted: November 26, 2014, 8:19 am - IP Logged

            DC for the 16-18 times skip region would be 0.99

            "There is no such thing as luck; only adequate or inadequate preparation to cope with a statistical universe."

            ~Robert A. Heinlein

              Avatar

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              Posted: November 26, 2014, 6:27 pm - IP Logged

              LottoBux, Tia  thanks.   Must have still been asleep this morning.

                garyo1954's avatar - garyo
                Dallas, Texas
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                Posted: November 26, 2014, 10:33 pm - IP Logged

                                When is the best time to play for a single digit? US Flag

                   Some say wait until it's missing for x amount of time.

                         Some say .....play it as a straight and wait until it goes missing in ONE position forx amount of time. 

                              ......and some say "hey, a digit will hit most often on an average of every 3 days"  So, they logic it out by saying "Let's focus on that ....just play it every 3rd missing day"   

                                         

                Win D,

                Don't think there is enough raw data for beyond the shadow of a doubt. Nonetheless, charting one individual game, Texas Night 3, (not combined Texas draws), here's what it looks like:

                For any combined draw expect the numbers to be different.

                0-9 across the top are the digits; 16 - 29 are the longest a digit stayed out at any point; Totals are the number of times a digit stayed out 16 or more draws; <19 is how many times a digit hit before the 19th draw; Pct is the percentage the digit hit before the 19th draw.

                Average is the average number of draws a digit stayed out between 16 and the highest total of times.

                Right column is the percentage any digit hit at that draw.  From that we see any digit out 16 draws will hit more than 1 in 4 times (better than a quarter of the time, 29.63%). A digit will hit at the 17 draw slightly better than 1 in 5 times (20.37%). A digit out 18 draws will hit 1/7 times (14.81%).

                This is all based on 108 results, not a lot data for this type calculation.

                Using what we got, overall, 65% of the time any digit stays out 16 draws it will hit before the 19th draw.

                And will hit before the 20th draw 76%.

                Ask your doctor if Pick3 is right for you. 

                G

                My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"

                  JeetKuneDoLotto's avatar - mystic

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                  November 27, 2014
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                  Posted: November 27, 2014, 3:43 am - IP Logged

                                  When is the best time to play for a single digit? US Flag

                     Some say wait until it's missing for x amount of time.

                           Some say .....play it as a straight and wait until it goes missing in ONE position forx amount of time. 

                                ......and some say "hey, a digit will hit most often on an average of every 3 days"  So, they logic it out by saying "Let's focus on that ....just play it every 3rd missing day"   

                                           

                  Greetings Win D.

                  I am not sure if there is a best time to play for a single digit. 

                  I mostly try to find a best time for a trio of digits.

                  The last time i looked getting a single digit did not pay off very well.

                  Some, say, say, say...

                    CARBOB's avatar - FL LOTTERY_LOGO.png
                    ORLANDO, FLORIDA
                    United States
                    Member #4924
                    June 3, 2004
                    5961 Posts
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                    Posted: November 27, 2014, 5:31 am - IP Logged

                    The image is P1, digit 7 from Fl Merged before the 11/26/14 draw. The top value is the number of hits, digit 7 had at the bottom value, number of skips. The digit 7 has a 70% chance of showing in P1 by 10 draws and each digit is different. The draw was 759.

                     

                     

                    0P1
                    45557%
                    SKIP9
                    1P1
                    52873%
                    SKIP1
                    2P1
                    47160%
                    SKIP22
                    3P1
                    48969%
                    SKIP7
                    4P1
                    50164%
                    SKIP8
                    5P1
                    47160%
                    SKIP10
                    6P1
                    44668%
                    SKIP4
                    7P1
                    48070%
                    SKIP34
                    8P1
                    43555%
                    SKIP5
                    9P1
                    48670%
                    SKIP2

                     

                     

                     

                     

                    7P1  123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899100
                    48070%  4849753525292025171411171085611563105282323452212021110011000000000200000010000000000000000000000000000000000000000
                    SKIP34  195232121341281032969542532117925436924064139733457510719227475523179627771448716513188016081749102119093132  38137038742098    1331483                  658            1526                                                                               
                      winsumloosesum's avatar - Lottery-060.jpg
                      Pennsylvania
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                      Member #2218
                      September 1, 2003
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                      Posted: November 27, 2014, 6:23 am - IP Logged

                      The information below was from a doc file located inside Lottoman called Pick 3

                      https://app.box.com/s/3ya4ut16kf014i43926o

                      Excellent reading!!!

                      Credit to Scott Piel

                       

                      Other Statistical Views

                      The Real World

                      If you've studied Statistics, one thing you know is that the laws of probability all start with statements like "In a perfect world" and "Given that all things are equal". These are amazing qualifiers. What they are saying is that in order to achieve the exact results we expect, there can be no variables between what we calculate and the conditions of the trials. In other words, we have to take into account every difference between the balls and each trial in order to calculate the exact probabilities of the outcomes.

                      This is an extremely important observation for the simple reason that we do not live in a perfect world and that not everything will be equal. No matter how diligently the balls are marked and weighed, each one is going to be a little different from the rest. Further, the conditions under which the trial (drawing) takes place will not be identical from one to the next.

                      There is something of a raging debate on this point, but it remains that every ball has a different weight and balance. Further, the physics of each ball will vary -- one will be more round than another, slightly different in size and have different frictional characteristics. Likewise, the barometric pressure, temperature and humidity will all vary from one draw to the next, etc.

                      There are, in short, a host of variables we have not taken into account when calculating the probabilities for the game. The bottom line is that what we expect is based on a perfect world we do not live in and, therefor, the results we expect will not exactly match the results we see. In fact, it is the very realization that we do not live in a perfect world that permits us to compare the calculated expectations with the actual events in order to spot trends and patterns.

                      For what it is worth, the calculated probabilities are called theoretical probabilities because we base them on the theory of a perfect world where all things are equal. The results of our observation of the game, on the other hand, are called empirical evidence (or probability). This raises the obvious question: "How do we find the empirical probabilities in the game?".

                      This question leads us back, again, to the definition of probability: The number of things we are looking for divided by the number of things we are looking among, or, the number of correct results divided by the number of possible results. Thus, to find the empirical probability of something happening, we go over the history of the game and count how many times the right result took place and then divide by the number of draws we looked through.

                      For example, suppose we wanted to know the empirical probability of a one ball appearing in the first position. We would go through the history of the game and every time we see the one ball in the first position we make a mark on a piece of paper. When we're done, we count the number of marks and divide by the number of draws in the history. Thus, if we have eighteen weeks of draws (126 draws) and the one ball appeared in the first position 13 times, the empirical probability of a one ball in the first position is 13:126 or 1:10. This happens to be exactly the case over the last eighteen weeks of the New York Daily (the draws from 12/13/94 through 4/19/95).

                      However, the same does not hold true of all numbers. If we look at the last eighteen weeks in New York, we find that the zero ball has appeared in the first position nineteen times and the five ball has only appeared in the first position nine times. That is, at a minimum, a very significant difference. The empirical probability of a five ball in the first position is 1:14 while the same for the zero ball is 1:6. Over the same eighteen weeks, we find that the six ball has also appeared in the first position just eight times for an empirical probability of 1:15. It, too, is behaving strangely.

                      For whatever reason, it would appear that in the real world, the zero is a better bet than the five or six as the first ball. In fact, the probability of a zero in the first position is better than that of the five or six combined (1:6 -vs.- 1:7). We have no way of knowing why this is happening. We can only observe the results and make the best possible use of what we find. The difference might be nothing more than the result of the strange things that random events can do, or, it may be an indication of a clear difference between the one ball's and the five ball's behaviors. Is there some way to differentiate between "The luck of the draw" and an actual physical difference?


                      Average and Mean

                      Remember that when we talk about probability, we are talking about what happens "on average". Further, that average is just the number of times we see a particular result divided by the number of trials. Thus, we see the five and six balls in one of every fifteen draws, on average. Likewise, we see the zero ball in one of every six draws.

                      The average, as we have already seen, is a simple division. It is just the number of times we see the result (frequency) divided by the number of results. A very good example of average would be talking about the average family income in your neighborhood. You might go around the area asking all your neighbors how much they earn a year. When you were done, you would add up all of their answers and divide that by the number of neighbors you had asked (we'll say 20 neighbors). Perhaps the average family income in your neighborhood is $40,000 a year.

                      Suppose, however, that one of your neighbors recently hit the Super Lotto for $5 million. In this case, their income would be about $250,000 a year. Being down to earth, friendly, folks -- they choose to remain in their home and not let the money change their lifestyle. What does this do to the average income of the neighborhood? Since we has asked 20 people about their income, the lucky families winnings would make the average income $50,000 a year in place of the
                      $40,000. Is the average correct and does it fairly report what is "normal" in the neighborhood?

                      Obviously, the average is misleading us into believing that the families in this area are better off than they really are. There is, however, another way we can look at the problem that may give a more honest answer. We could use the median income in place of the average income. By definition, the median tells us what is exactly half way between the highest and lowest extremes in the results we've obtained. Therefor, it offers what may be a clearer picture of "normal".
                      Finding the median is, fortunately, not difficult. However, we can not do it with a simple equation. Rather, we'll need paper and pencil. We start by writing down the incomes reported by the neighbors in order from the lowest income to the highest income. We then pick the income that is in the middle. In other words, since we asked 20 families their incomes, we take the one that is tenth or eleventh in the list. As a result, exactly half the incomes reported will be less then (or equal to) the median and exactly half will be more than (or equal to) the median. More often than not, the median will be closer to the truth.

                      The important thing to realize about the use of the median is that it allows for the unusual or unexpected. In other words, in this neighborhood where one family has an income much higher than the rest, their income does not have a significant effect on the result.

                      We can also apply the median view to the lottery and, perhaps, answer the question of whether or not the lack of the five and six are just freak events or if there is a real pattern in their unusual behavior.  Likewise, we can use the median to see if the zero ball is really as hot as we think, or also a freak event.

                      In order to do this, we have to do a little more than just count how many times the zero, five or six appear. We must also keep track of how many draws take place between each appearance. We scan through the history of the game and look for the first five. Once we find it, we count how many draws until the five shows again. Then start the count back at zero and count how many times until the next appearance of the five and so on until the end of the history.
                      Once we've found all the occurrences of the five, we rearrange the results from the shortest number of draws between appearances to the longest number of draws between shows. When we're done, we pick the number of draws exactly in the middle of the list. We then would do the same for the six and the zero.

                      Remember that probability was talking about the average and tells us how often something happens. Thus, if the probability of a five appearing in the first position was 1:14, we expect to see the five in one out of every fourteen draws. On the other hand, when we worked out the median for the five, we actually counted the number of draws between appearances and picked the one in the middle. The important thing is that both the average and the median are talking about the number of draws between appearances.

                      If the five is behaving in a settled pattern, the average and the median will be nearly the same. if, on the other hand, the five ran in a streak and then stopped entirely (or visa-versa), the average and median will be very different. Likewise, the zero might have turned up in a slew of consecutive draws then stopped drawing. This would account for the higher probability of the zero but mislead us into thinking it was more common than it really is. The key is this: If the average and median are close to one another, the results are likely to be normal behavior. If, on the other hand, they are widely different, the results indicate something unusual took place and the median is a better statement of what is normal.

                      Returning to the last eighteen weeks of the New York daily, we find several interesting things about the zero, the five and the six. The zero has both an average and a median probability of 1:6. It is, simply, a hot number. Likewise, the six has an average probability of 1:15 and a median of 1:12. It appears to be a cold number. However, the five has an average probability of 1:14 and a median probability of 1:3! Had we not looked at the median, we might have been very misled into thinking the five was a bad play while it appears to be one of the better ones in reality.

                      More than likely, what happened was the five went for a long stretch without appearing for one reason or another. However, according to the median, it does typically appear more often than the zero does. Therefor, the five is actually a better number to play than the zero.
                      Similar revelations of the median clue us into the fact that the hottest number in the game is not the zero (which occurred most often over the last eighteen weeks) but is actually the five which is followed closely by the nine (which only appeared 13 times). The nine has an average probability of 1:8 (worse than the zero's 1:6) but also has a median of 1:4 (better than the zero's 1:6). We'll also find that the three (drawn 16 times) appears more frequently at 1:5 than the zero. Further, seven has been drawn roughly half as often as the zero (at 11 times) yet has a median of 1:6 which is identical to the zero.


                      Frequency and Age

                      What we've really been talking about, when discussing probability, average and mean, is frequency. Again, we've been discussing how often things happen. In other words, the frequency of the zero is 1 in 6 draws, the five is 1:3, the 3 is 1:5, the seven is 1:6 and the six is 1:12. However, if the seven was drawn less often than the zero but both have the same median frequency, the seven must have gone for a spell without drawing. Likewise, the five has been drawn far less than the zero yet tends to appear more frequently. Was that in the beginning of the eighteen weeks, the end of the period or somewhere in the middle?

                      We find the answer to that question by determining the age of the seven and the five. In other words, how long has it been since the seven or five appeared in the first position? To do this, we simply start at the end of the eighteen weeks and count draws backwards until the seven appears in the first position and then do the same for the five. We find that the current age of the seven is twelve -- there have been twelve draws since the seven appeared. Likewise, the current age of the zero is eight and the current age of the five is zero (the five appeared in the most recent draw).

                      Since the median number of draws for both the seven and the zero is 1:6, it would appear that the zero is acting about normal (at an age of eight) while the seven is well overdue (it's current age is twice the median). In fact, the seven has a current age that is greater than it's average frequency of 1:10. From this we can conclude that the seven has recently grown cold.
                      At the same time, we'll find that the five appeared in the most recent draw and has also appeared in the same position in the two draws before it. Thus, the five has recently been very hot in the first position and the probability of seeing it, yet again, in the first position are extremely low (1:10,000). We can be fairly sure that the five is not a good play in the first position for the next draw. However, we might want to consider it again in the very near future.


                      The clue is found in a comparison of the current age and the median. As the current age grows closer to the median, the number is coming due. As the current age passes the median, the number becomes overdue. Finally, when the current age becomes a multiple of the median (i.e. twice the median or three times the median), the number is a particularly good bet. There are, of course, many other factors that come into play and style will vary from one player to the next.


                      Statistical Summary

                      What is important to keep in mind is that we are dealing with events that, while not actually random, are close enough for all practical purposes. All of the "facts" we collect about a game (age, average and median probabilities, etc.) are nothing more than generalizations that serve to describe typical behavior in "the long run". None of these permit us to say with certainty that the next draw will be one thing or another. However, if we make careful use of these statistics, we can find ourselves playing with greater accuracy and winning more often than randomly stabbing at the game.

                        CARBOB's avatar - FL LOTTERY_LOGO.png
                        ORLANDO, FLORIDA
                        United States
                        Member #4924
                        June 3, 2004
                        5961 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: November 27, 2014, 6:43 am - IP Logged

                        The image is P1, digit 7 from Fl Merged before the 11/26/14 draw. The top value is the number of hits, digit 7 had at the bottom value, number of skips. The digit 7 has a 70% chance of showing in P1 by 10 draws and each digit is different. The draw was 759.

                         

                         

                        0P1
                        45557%
                        SKIP9
                        1P1
                        52873%
                        SKIP1
                        2P1
                        47160%
                        SKIP22
                        3P1
                        48969%
                        SKIP7
                        4P1
                        50164%
                        SKIP8
                        5P1
                        47160%
                        SKIP10
                        6P1
                        44668%
                        SKIP4
                        7P1
                        48070%
                        SKIP34
                        8P1
                        43555%
                        SKIP5
                        9P1
                        48670%
                        SKIP2

                         

                         

                         

                         

                        7P1  123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899100
                        48070%  4849753525292025171411171085611563105282323452212021110011000000000200000010000000000000000000000000000000000000000
                        SKIP34  195232121341281032969542532117925436924064139733457510719227475523179627771448716513188016081749102119093132  38137038742098    1331483                  658            1526                                                                               

                        Need to make a correction, sorry.

                        Top Row= Skip

                        Mid Row = Number of hits at the Top Row Skip

                        Bot Row= Number of skips since hit of the Top Row Skip

                        as you can see before the Mid draw, yesterday, digit 7 had hit twice and there had been 3132 draws since it hit at 34 skips.

                         

                         

                         

                         

                         

                         

                         

                        Happy Thanksgiving Chaz. Hope all is well.

                          winsumloosesum's avatar - Lottery-060.jpg
                          Pennsylvania
                          United States
                          Member #2218
                          September 1, 2003
                          5396 Posts
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                          Posted: November 27, 2014, 6:57 am - IP Logged

                          Pennsylvania Combined Draws:

                          Average = Total Draws Analyzed 126

                          Current Age (Current Skip)

                          Hits (+/-) = Average - Hits

                          Max Skip = Highest Skip from last 126 draws

                          Credit below to Scott Piel Lottoman Pick 3 doc.

                          The clue is found in a comparison of the current age and the median.

                          As the current age grows closer to the median, the number is coming due.

                          As the current age passes the median, the number becomes overdue.

                          Finally, when the current age becomes a multiple of the median (i.e. twice the median or three times the median), the number is a particularly good bet.

                          There are, of course, many other factors that come into play and style will vary from one player to the next.

                          Positions

                            CARBOB's avatar - FL LOTTERY_LOGO.png
                            ORLANDO, FLORIDA
                            United States
                            Member #4924
                            June 3, 2004
                            5961 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: November 27, 2014, 7:02 am - IP Logged

                            Pennsylvania Combined Draws:

                            Average = Total Draws Analyzed 126

                            Current Age (Current Skip)

                            Hits (+/-) = Average - Hits

                            Max Skip = Highest Skip from last 126 draws

                            Credit below to Scott Piel Lottoman Pick 3 doc.

                            The clue is found in a comparison of the current age and the median.

                            As the current age grows closer to the median, the number is coming due.

                            As the current age passes the median, the number becomes overdue.

                            Finally, when the current age becomes a multiple of the median (i.e. twice the median or three times the median), the number is a particularly good bet.

                            There are, of course, many other factors that come into play and style will vary from one player to the next.

                            Positions

                            Very nice Steve. Is it available for download?

                              winsumloosesum's avatar - Lottery-060.jpg
                              Pennsylvania
                              United States
                              Member #2218
                              September 1, 2003
                              5396 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: November 27, 2014, 4:24 pm - IP Logged

                              Here is the Excel file for Pennsylvania Pick 3 Evening draws

                              https://app.box.com/s/uvlz2gowjih44n1qzc4p

                              You will need to replace Florida drawings in the tab labeled Draws.

                              Replace dates, and draws in cell columns D & H.  Adjust the formulas for the dates in cell column D

                              The Tab labeled DigitPositionAnalysis has the charts.