|Posted: December 21, 2014, 8:12 am - IP Logged|
I'm done, disappointing (but not surprising really), results.
Did two types of runs.
Type 1 - Apples to Apples. 8 quick picks per run, against the 8 special picks needed to cover all 39 digits
Type 2 - Orange to Apples. 1 quick pick per run, against the 8 special picks needed to cover all 39 digits.
In all cases, for the 8 special picks, I did a did a special random pick, randomly picking a remaining number from the bin of 39 (down to 0), and put them in tickets 1-8 one each position at a time. First 8 in position 1 of each ticket. Second 8 in position 2 of each ticket, etc. For the 40th digit on the 8th ticket of the special picks, I did another random pick of all the other numbers previously assigned to the other 7 tickets. Could not have 2 of the same number on the eight ticket. Reordered each ticket sequentially (as with all quick picks) once it was done.
For all runs, I did 25,000 random draws of 5 of 39, and then saved all 25,000 away in a file. Then I read them back one at a time, and THEN did the 8 (for Type 1 run) and 1 (for Type 2 Run) 5 of 39 quick picks, representing our quick pick tickets. THEN, I did the special random "all numbers across 8 tickets" as described in previous paragraph. THEN, I counted hits for all and saved away for later analysis. THEN, I read in the next of the 25,000 saved away draws for the run, and did all the above described in THIS paragraph again. Until all 25,000 draws were done. For each run.
Did Type 1 (Apples to Apples) for 10 Runs of 25,000 each, one at a time. Did Type 2 (Orange to Apples) for 10 runs of 25,000 each, one at a time. Each of 20 Runs got a different random number generator seed used for the entire run.
Results, for the Type 1 (Apples to Apples) runs. It was a tie. Both got approximately (for each hit count 3 and up and in total of all 3+ hits) exactly what the odds say pretty much, with minimal differences. Conclusion. A small number of tickets covering all digits, are just more picks, each with a small chance of winning just as a quick pick or manual pick is.
Results, for the Type 2 (Orange to Apples) runs. It was a tie, for each of the 8 special picks against the one quick pick (and also against all the 8 quick picks on the Type 1 Runs - again confirmed). Conclusion. Same as Type 1 Run conclusion.
So, as for an ongoing picking strategy, I do not recommend this method. Certainly not 8 tickets instead of 1, you will just lose 8 times as fast (unless you get lucky but that can happen with 1 ticket). Unless you are already picking 8 quick pick tickets every time anyway, and in which case this method is no worse (or any better).
It would also be the same (I can tell now) for any other Pick 5 game, or any Pick 6 game. So I will not be doing this same analysis for other Pick 6 games, or Pick 6 games. I consider this question answered now, for myself anyway. It took a while to build and even longer to run, so I am not wasting any more time on this question. There are other questions to be answered!