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Statistics for Playing All Numbers in Pick 5

Topic closed. 5 replies. Last post 2 years ago by Hans.

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MrProgrammer's avatar - Lottery-001.jpg

United States
Member #161388
November 28, 2014
83 Posts
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Posted: December 14, 2014, 3:10 pm - IP Logged

Is it better, or not, to play all numbers possible across a few tickets covering them all, for the Pick 5 games?  Let's find out.  I am going to program up something this week to get this answer.  The general consensus from many out there, from what I can tell so far, is that it IS advantageous to do this.  To me, sounds reasonable, possible, tempting to believe and start playing like this.  But is it REALLY better?

So, a mystery I cannot avoid solving for myself, and I want to contribute my findings to all of LP to see.  I will do it first on a 5 of 39 game, which is the most common one out there.  I will work on it this week in the evenings (I do have a day job).  So expect some statistics on this later this coming week.  Once I have the basic routines written, I will also do later for all other Pick 5 games out there that are not 5 of 39.  Like Texas which is 5 of 37, which I will do second.  And then others after that.  Will the results be the same as for the others?  Another question that needs to be answered.

How will I do this to be sure I am getting correct statistics?  Until I design all pieces during this programming effort, I can't say in detail yet.  I will disclose that later when I am done and have ran it many ways and times.  Then you can analyze my methodology at that time.

Should be interesting, I think.  Feel free to post your predictions here, between now and and my first set of answers later this week.  And if you are in the camp that current thinks it is better, or not.  I think predictions and thoughts ahead of the findings will be interesting and fun too.

MrProgrammer  Cool

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    NASHVILLE, TENN
    United States
    Member #33372
    February 20, 2006
    1044 Posts
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    Posted: December 15, 2014, 9:16 am - IP Logged

    I wish you success and look forward to your results.

      MrProgrammer's avatar - Lottery-001.jpg

      United States
      Member #161388
      November 28, 2014
      83 Posts
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      Posted: December 17, 2014, 7:40 am - IP Logged

      Global Accurate Random Draw Machine Build for any Pick X of Y, for an N Draws.  DONE.  Built for this 5 of 39 task first, but built it flexibly, now works for any Pick X of Y, for N Draws.  Even Keno 20 of 80.  Anyway, this part (phase 1) is done and was the first step for this stated forum thread task.  Next up, picks spreading out the numbers across tickets, and comparing the results to quick picks, for the 5 of 39 game as stated.  On track to finish by Sunday or sooner, as stated.  More updates later.

      MrProgrammer  Cool


        United States
        Member #159906
        October 12, 2014
        15 Posts
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        Posted: December 17, 2014, 12:21 pm - IP Logged

        Hey MrProgrammer can you give me some picks for Washington State Hit 5 based on your method?

        Thanks!

         

        Wink

          MrProgrammer's avatar - Lottery-001.jpg

          United States
          Member #161388
          November 28, 2014
          83 Posts
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          Posted: December 21, 2014, 8:12 am - IP Logged

          I'm done, disappointing (but not surprising really), results.

          Did two types of runs. 

          Type 1 - Apples to Apples.  8 quick picks per run, against the 8 special picks needed to cover all 39 digits

          Type 2 - Orange to Apples.  1 quick pick per run, against the 8 special picks needed to cover all 39 digits.

          In all cases, for the 8 special picks, I did a did a special random pick, randomly picking a remaining number from the bin of 39 (down to 0), and put them in tickets 1-8 one each position at a time.  First 8 in position 1 of each ticket.  Second 8 in position 2 of each ticket, etc.  For the 40th digit on the 8th ticket of the special picks, I did another random pick of all the other numbers previously assigned to the other 7 tickets.  Could not have 2 of the same number on the eight ticket.  Reordered each ticket sequentially (as with all quick picks) once it was done.

          For all runs, I did 25,000 random draws of 5 of 39, and then saved all 25,000 away in a file.  Then I read them back one at a time, and THEN did the 8 (for Type 1 run) and 1 (for Type 2 Run) 5 of 39 quick picks, representing our quick pick tickets.  THEN, I did the special random "all numbers across 8 tickets" as described in previous paragraph.  THEN, I counted hits for all and saved away for later analysis.  THEN, I read in the next of the 25,000 saved away draws for the run, and did all the above described in THIS paragraph again.  Until all 25,000 draws were done.  For each run.

          Did Type 1 (Apples to Apples) for 10 Runs of 25,000 each, one at a time.  Did Type 2 (Orange to Apples) for 10 runs of 25,000 each, one at a time.  Each of 20 Runs got a different random number generator seed used for the entire run.

          Results, for the Type 1 (Apples to Apples) runs.  It was a tie.  Both got approximately (for each hit count 3 and up and in total of all 3+ hits) exactly what the odds say pretty much, with minimal differences.  Conclusion.  A small number of tickets covering all digits, are just more picks, each with a small chance of winning just as a quick pick or manual pick is.

          Results, for the Type 2 (Orange to Apples) runs.  It was a tie, for each of the 8 special picks against the one quick pick (and also against all the 8 quick picks on the Type 1 Runs - again confirmed).  Conclusion.  Same as Type 1 Run conclusion.

          So, as for an ongoing picking strategy, I do not recommend this method.  Certainly not 8 tickets instead of 1, you will just lose 8 times as fast (unless you get lucky but that can happen with 1 ticket). Unless you are already picking 8 quick pick tickets every time anyway, and in which case this method is no worse (or any better).

          It would also be the same (I can tell now) for any other Pick 5 game, or any Pick 6 game.  So I will not be doing this same analysis for other Pick 6 games, or Pick 6 games.  I consider this question answered now, for myself anyway.  It took a while to build and even longer to run, so I am not wasting any more time on this question.  There are other questions to be answered!

          MrProgrammer  Cool

            Hans's avatar - Lottery-029.jpg
            Monte Carlo
            France
            Member #55589
            October 9, 2007
            1181 Posts
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            Posted: December 22, 2014, 8:08 am - IP Logged

            I play two sets of 12 numbers,is hat good statistically speaking?

            Strive to predict 8 tickets for 12 numbers with Max ROI for Pick6!