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Continue Wheeling??

Topic closed. 25 replies. Last post 2 years ago by ThatScaryChick.

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SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
Economy class
Belgium
Member #123700
February 27, 2012
4035 Posts
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Posted: April 11, 2015, 11:24 am - IP Logged

Even the chances of getting just one number are not so good:

 

Prize LevelOdds of WinningEst. PrizeEst. Rolldown Prize
Overall Odds: 1:7.58
5 Balls     
1:376,992$200,000-
  4 Balls       
1:2,432.21$100$555 (maximum)
  3 Balls 
1:81.07$10$20
  2 Balls       
1:8.39Free TicketFree Ticket

FANTASY 5 Odds of Winning and Estimated Prize Payouts

What is the price of one combination?

How many numbers are played? ...

    SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
    Economy class
    Belgium
    Member #123700
    February 27, 2012
    4035 Posts
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    Posted: April 11, 2015, 11:27 am - IP Logged

    I can give you the probabilities on a full 9-number wheel:

    0.03% chance of jackpot (plus multiple lesser prizes).

    0.9% chance of 4 balls (plus lesser prizes)

    7.8% chance of 3 balls (plus a bunch of free tickets)

    27.9% chance of 2 balls

    --no prizes below this line--

    41.9% chance of 1 ball

    21.4% chance of matching nothing at all.

    What is the cost of a combination?

    What is the payout range for each chance?

    How many combinations are there for each chance?

      SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
      Economy class
      Belgium
      Member #123700
      February 27, 2012
      4035 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: April 11, 2015, 11:31 am - IP Logged

      I have a Gail Howard Wheel 5 book.

      It's been some time since I read parts of it, but I think she says that the more numbers you wheel, the better your chances of trapping the winning numbers.

      And then don't play a full wheel,just pick a partial one that gives you a reasonably good chance of winning.

      The more numbers you wheel, the thinner the chance for a payout, generally speaking.

      You can wheel all numbers with a wheel of 100 combinations, and you win maybe 5 dollars every single time, maybe only free tickets! Get real!

        music*'s avatar - nw bookeep.jpg
        Happy California
        United States
        Member #157856
        August 2, 2014
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        Posted: April 11, 2015, 3:47 pm - IP Logged

        WinTwice,  Thank You for posting.   You did good by splurging in your celebrations. 10% or less of your winnings.

         You are a good example of looking forward to retirement.  Looking at your future in rewind.  Looking at your heirs and making your money last until death and beyond.

         I hope that you are a frequent Lottery Post  poster.

          cbr$'s avatar - maren
          Cordova,Al.
          United States
          Member #104482
          January 15, 2011
          5422 Posts
          Online
          Posted: April 11, 2015, 4:39 pm - IP Logged

          Hello all! First of all, I'm new here - so I apologize in advance if my question seems ridiculous or obvious to any members.

          I'm hoping you might offer me a little advice.

          In the not too distant past, (last few months) I was lucky enough to win a Florida Fantasy Five jackpot. The total was just short of $100,000. Needless to say, I was beyond shocked. I'm not really a regular lottery player. Maybe a few Powerball or MegaMillions tickets now and then when the jackpots reach stratospheric heights with an occasional Fantasy Five thrown in, but that's about it. $70k after taxes was a very nice windfall.

          Now comes the...well...weird part of my story. For some strange reason I decided to play a 'wheel' of numbers that night. I'd read about 'wheeling' on occasion, but never really gave it much thought. Again, can't explain why I did it, but that evening I played a 'full wheel' of nine numbers...sort of based on the frequency of appearance in recent draws. Some "hot" vs some "cold", that kind of thing. Just a fun kind of experiment with about a hundred disposable dollars. I likened it to how much I might spend in a cruise ship casino. (Where I've both won AND lost - no surprise there!)

          When I checked the numbers the next morning, I didn't even need to check my tickets. I knew just enough about "wheeling" that I could see that my fun little experiment had paid off. All of the winning numbers were included in my wheel. I knew I held at least one jackpot winning ticket. Of course, I did pull out my stack of tickets (about 125 total) and checked. Sure enough, one of the series of numbers I picked was a jackpot winner! I was pleasantly surprised by finding that I also had about 15 or 20 second prize winners - each worth about $100, plus maybe 30 or 40 third prize winners of about $9.00 each. That was an extra $1,800 or so in non-jackpot prizes! I was very surprised. What are the odds of this happening - do many people win the first time they try a 'wheel'? My guess is: no. In fact, I'll answer my own question and say the odds are not good at all.

          I wish I could tell you of lavish spending sprees in the weeks after my win, but I'm pretty boring when it comes to money. I didn't have much debt to speak of, but I paid off the few low balances I had on a couple of credit cards, added to my savings account and had a nice long weekend trip with my wife...during which we didn't really look at any bills we signed. (Not typical for us...we usually budget pretty carefully on trips). Apart from that, the majority is invested and won't be touched...a bit of a boost for our retirement accounts.

          The point of my post is not to tell you this story. That just serves as background color for my question(s) for anyone who wants to reply.

          Of course, I knew full well that this was an extremely rare occurrence. My day as a lottery winner had come, and gone. It was time to get up from the table and walk out with my winnings. Lightning doesn't strike twice...no matter how much we ask the lottery 'gods' to hit us again. But the very basic human emotion of greed is kind of powerful. So I admit that I've wasted some money in the months since my win and tried the 'wheeling' deal a number of times since. I've done the 'wheel' thing another 15 times or so. Each time, laying out about $125.00. So I've spent about $1,900.00 on lottery tix since my win. Hoping to win again, but expecting to lose what I'm spending. Well, I did lose most of those drawings...but...on two occasions, four winning numbers appeared in my wheels. Each of those times I had numerous second prize winners of $110-$130 each. Plus third prize winners too. All told, I've won an additional $4,300 during this time. After spending a ridiculous $1,900.00 on lottery tickets (which I would have considered insane just a few months ago), I find myself with an extra $2400 after accounting for my (by all accounts) irresponsible lotteryspending spree! I feel like I'm going a little crazy.

          My question for you is: is this just more common than one would think? I kind of doubt it, otherwise I suspect lotteries would go bankrupt pretty quickly. But since I'm a total ignorant amateur in this field, I thought I'd get some advice from you good people.

          Do I continue with these experiments? At this point, I'm playing with "house" money anyway, so I can absorb a $2000 loss without much guilt...do I tempt Lady Luck a little more? At the same time, I don't want to throw away a nice little windfall of $2k.

          Greed dictates that another jackpot could be around the corner. Logic says another jackpot is all but impossible. Luck indicates that I won't know either way unless I play the game.

          I know I'm overthinking this. It's just a game of chance.

          What do you think?

          (Please try to keep all replies civil and respectful. I didn't write any of this to offend, insult or otherwise incite anyone. I'm just looking for some honest, respectful feedback. Thanks.)

          If you like to wheel your numbers, you such do so. It a few things, or words in these statements that sound like shouldn't worry about a bite from the greed bug. Keys words, You & your wife usually budget, putting money in your retirement account...etc. These are the steps you take to continue to enjoy your life style later after the both of you retire. 

            Raven62's avatar - binary
            New Jersey
            United States
            Member #17843
            June 28, 2005
            51138 Posts
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            Posted: April 11, 2015, 8:48 pm - IP Logged

            So, I can understand darthfury78's point here. How many people ever win the lottery once, much less twice? I think I may take my winnings and enjoy my brief day in the sun as a minor lottery winner. Maybe I'll pick up a Powerball or MegaMillions ticket if/when jackpots get astronomically high...though I realize the odds of winning those are about a million times worse than winning Fantasy Five again.

            I was lucky...plain and simple. The odds are stacked against most of us and I beat 'em once. I'm happy with that! Anyone have a compelling argument for me to continue giving it a shot? I'm certainly willing to listen.

            I will admit, I wheeled again this evening. We'll see how that turns out! Wish me luck...who knows, lightning might strike twice. 

            If I have no luck on this go-around, I wish the best of luck to everyone else here. I won $100,000. Never really expected it to happen, I just bought the tickets based on a little dreaming and some hope. However, I played and it did actually happen. You just never know. You just may win that $10,000,000 jackpot or more!!! Be realistic and responsible, live life as if you'll earn  that $10,000,000 eventually (legally and ethically, of course) but NEVER give up hope. Hope is free...and the tickets are only a dollar or two. Entrepreneurship is not quite as cheap, but the hope springing from an aspiring business owner is immensely powerful...and can even change the world. Tomorrow just might be the day your numbers come up! Or a year or two from now may just be the day your business hits $100-million in revenue. Either way, you won't make it to either place without some hope, a plan and some concrete action.

            Best of luck to ALL of the future multi-millionaires reading this post! May you accomplish everything you set out to do!

            What you need is a Magic Wheel: One that takes Losing Numbers and turns them into a Winning Combination!

            A mind once stretched by a new idea never returns to its original dimensions!

              datamon414's avatar - Lottery-012.jpg
              New Member
              Keene, NH
              United States
              Member #117936
              October 18, 2011
              18 Posts
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              Posted: April 12, 2015, 11:15 am - IP Logged

              Wintwice,
              Firstly, my heartiest congratulations on your recent win in Florida.
              Personally, i feel elated when one of our members here, has that kind of success.
              I feel like I know them personally,lol. Secondly, the only ridiculous question, is the
              one that's NEVER asked.
              Your decision how you continue to play in the future, should be like it was initially, just
              play when you feel the urge. You convey the impression that you are fiscally grounded, and as such
              will never squander the family's wealth on the lottery.
              However, you may consider giving your wife a ' bank ' of her own to try her luck, lol.
              In the interest of disclosure, I'm an advocate of Wheeling Systems. I have a small library
              of Gail Howard's publications. Many years ago, playing her System # 608, 18 numbers, 42 plays
              resulted in a 4+1 winning combination, $5000 + plus multiple smaller prizes. Jackpot was $42M.
              I have had numerous smaller hits over the years wheeling numbers, including wins with LP Pick 6
              wheels. I mostly select my numbers from Hit Frequency Statistics Charts.
              Wheeling Systems are compatible with a variety of players budgets. They also offer great coverage.
              For those who are familiar with Wheeling Systems, let me share the fact that I'm currently experimenting
              with Wheeling Systems with POWER NUMBERS. Basically, instead of just using a single digit, for e.g in the
              PN slot, I'm using more digits from the game, for greater coverage. Will report any success in the future.
              Greed, Logic and Luck are great ingredients for playing games of chance, when each is measured wisely.
              Good Luck to all here with your future lottery investments.

                Technut's avatar - moon
                3rd Rock from Sun
                United States
                Member #159103
                September 13, 2014
                151 Posts
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                Posted: April 12, 2015, 12:33 pm - IP Logged

                Really you would quit playing after winning $100,000? And remember that isn't even the full amount because taxes will get taken out of it so that doesn't leave you much. And yes I know it's still a lot of money and you could still do a bunch of things with that amount, but it's not enough money for most people to retire or quit their jobs for.

                So yeah I would continue playing.

                I Agree!

                Yesterday is History, Tomorrow is a Mystery, Today is a gift that's why it's called the PRESENT! (c8

                  Avatar
                  Arizona
                  United States
                  Member #165073
                  March 24, 2015
                  220 Posts
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                  Posted: April 13, 2015, 10:18 pm - IP Logged

                  "The thing to remember about wheeling is that it actually has a lower probability of winning than the same number of random tickets, but when you do win, lots of the tickets will win."

                  Sorry, but this is plain wrong. I can guarantee unique number combinations by wheeling. I cannot do so with random tickets. All told, the probability of winning for any given ticket is the same, thanks to the rule of independent events.

                  Anyway, there is no magic to wheeling. It is simply variance reduction. Instead of having to replace the marbles each time you draw, you draw them all at once, so to speak (urn example). Similarly, if you buy 1 lottery ticket every draw for a year or play 108 different lottery tickets in a single draw, then you will have a higher probability of winning at least once if you play all in one. In the end your expected value is still the same though. You just get there faster with wheeling because you reduce variance with more non-duplicate combinations. Of course, you spend more $$$ too.

                  If I hit a jackpot I may be prone to up my lottery budget but nothing crazy. I might use a tax write-off strategy. I would still stick to the games with the best odds though (scratch-offs). I suck at picking numbers, let alone succeeding twice LOL

                  If you play a complete 9-number wheel (=126 tickets) on Florida's Fantasy 5 you have a 63.3% chance of winning nothing at all.

                  If you buy 126 random tickets, the probability of winning nothing is less than one in a million.

                  With 126 random tickets, there's a 5.05% chance that at least one of your tickets will match exactly four balls.

                  With the wheel, you've got a 0.93% chance that some of your tickets will have four balls - but if that chance comes up, five or twenty tickets will have them.

                  The chance of winning the jackpot is 0.03% either way.

                    Avatar
                    New Member

                    United States
                    Member #165446
                    April 7, 2015
                    3 Posts
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                    Posted: April 13, 2015, 11:20 pm - IP Logged

                    Thank you all for your thoughtful responses! I truly appreciate all of the information provided here. For a genuine lottery novice, you've all taught me quite a bit. 

                    I can report some results from my most recent wheel adventure on April 11...and they are surprisingly quite positive! I ended up catching three numbers in my 9-number wheel. That night, the third prize for FL Fantasy Five was $17.50. I think that's a bit higher than the normal advertised third prize of about $10 because it was a "roll-down" event (no one won the jackpot statewide that night).

                    In any event, I ended up with 26 combinations that included those three numbers for winnings of about $450.00! (Plus a whole bunch of free tickets - patrons in line behind me were getting pretty impatient when I cashed them all in!)

                    It's certainly no jackpot, but it more than covered the money I spent to buy the tickets. I really don't know how to attribute this to anything but luck at this point. It seems highly unusual to 'beat the odds' as many times as I have over the past months. 

                    This has been a fun experiment...but I can see how it could get really expensive, really quickly...especially without any wins to help you continue the process. I certainly suspect that my recent experience is not the norm. I may give the wheel deal another shot or two...but I think I'll spend maybe another $250 or so and call it a day. Of course, I'll report back if I hit another jackpot, but something tells me you won't be hearing from me anytime soon!

                    Of course, there's always that little possibility and a lot of hope! 

                    Best of luck to all and thanks again for your insightful and informative comments. 

                    I hope your jackpot's just around the corner. It really is fun holding that winning ticket in your hand. It's even more  fun trading it in for a rather large check! Wink

                      ThatScaryChick's avatar - x1MqPuM
                      Idaho
                      United States
                      Member #56506
                      November 21, 2007
                      6537 Posts
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                      Posted: April 13, 2015, 11:28 pm - IP Logged

                      It sounds like you are having lots of luck and fun playing, Wintwice! Congrats. Yes Nod

                      "No one remembers the person who almost climbed the mountain, only the person who eventually gets to the top."