Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited December 4, 2016, 11:27 pm
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

Anyone ever hear of the "Simpson Effect"?

Topic closed. 10 replies. Last post 2 years ago by casino crawler.

Page 1 of 1
51
PrintE-mailLink
casino crawler's avatar - Lottery-049.jpg
San Diego, CA
United States
Member #165351
April 3, 2015
86 Posts
Offline
Posted: April 10, 2015, 3:40 pm - IP Logged

I heard this idea years ago from some crusty gambler to the effect that a person's can actual effect the result of a seemingly random endeavor (like playing lotto or the slotI never could find anything on it, but I did see the "Simpson paradox" and the Simpson-Yule studies that talk about statistics and improbable results...now I am paraphrasing greatly.  I am wondering if the "Simpson Effect" is just a sort of urban lore amongst players? Any input would be appreciated.

    Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
    Zeta Reticuli Star System
    United States
    Member #30470
    January 17, 2006
    10348 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: April 10, 2015, 8:38 pm - IP Logged

    Simpson's paradox

    From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    Simpson's paradox for continuous data: a positive trend appears for two separate groups (blue and red), a negative trend (black, dashed) appears when the data are combined.
    Simpson's paradox, or the Yule�Simpson effect, is a paradox in probability and statistics, in which a trend that appears in different groups of data disappears or reverses when these groups are combined. It is sometimes given the impersonal title reversal paradox or amalgamation paradox.[1]

    This result is often encountered in social-science and medical-science statistics,[2] and is particularly confounding when frequency data are unduly given causal interpretations.[3] Simpson's paradox disappears when causal relations are brought into consideration. Many statisticians believe that the mainstream public should be informed of the counter-intuitive results in statistics such as Simpson's paradox.[4][5]

    Edward H. Simpson first described this phenomenon in a technical paper in 1951,[6] but the statisticians Karl Pearson, et al., in 1899,[7] and Udny Yule, in 1903, had mentioned similar effects earlier.[8] The name Simpson's paradox was introduced by Colin R. Blyth in 1972.[9]

    _________________________________________________________

    Not sure if that's what you meant but it sounds like the 'crusty gambler' was trying to convince you some kind of gambler's voodoo or universal consciousness works.

    Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

    Lep

    There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

      Raven62's avatar - binary
      New Jersey
      United States
      Member #17843
      June 28, 2005
      49674 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: April 10, 2015, 9:07 pm - IP Logged

      Simpson's paradox refers to a phenomena where by the association between a pair of variables (X,Y) reverses sign upon conditioning of a third variable, Z ,regardless of the value taken by Z. If we partition the data into subpopulations, each representing a specific value of the third variable, the phenomena appears as a sign reversal between the associations measured in the disaggregated subpopulations relative to the aggregated data, which describes the population as a whole.

      A mind once stretched by a new idea never returns to its original dimensions!

        LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
        Happyland
        United States
        Member #146344
        September 1, 2013
        1129 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: April 10, 2015, 11:19 pm - IP Logged

        In plain English, if the national median wage has increased but median wages in every educational subgroup (H.S. dropouts, Bachelor's degree recipients, etc.) has decreased, then you have a Simpson's paradox. The rub for this case lies in the proportion of the educational subgroup making higher/lower median wages.

        Usefulness to the lottery: none that I know of

        Good for practical examples of counterintuitive statistics though

        If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
        If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

        2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
        P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

          Original Bey's avatar - Lottery-022.jpg

          Bahamas
          Member #133462
          September 30, 2012
          5946 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: April 10, 2015, 11:21 pm - IP Logged

          In plain English, if the national median wage has increased but median wages in every educational subgroup (H.S. dropouts, Bachelor's degree recipients, etc.) has decreased, then you have a Simpson's paradox. The rub for this case lies in the proportion of the educational subgroup making higher/lower median wages.

          Usefulness to the lottery: none that I know of

          Good for practical examples of counterintuitive statistics though

          Thank you! Lol.

          "Everything works  ONCE!"

            eddessaknight's avatar - nw paladin.jpg
            LAS VEGAS
            United States
            Member #47729
            November 22, 2006
            4494 Posts
            Online
            Posted: April 13, 2015, 3:42 pm - IP Logged

            I heard this idea years ago from some crusty gambler to the effect that a person's can actual effect the result of a seemingly random endeavor (like playing lotto or the slotI never could find anything on it, but I did see the "Simpson paradox" and the Simpson-Yule studies that talk about statistics and improbable results...now I am paraphrasing greatly.  I am wondering if the "Simpson Effect" is just a sort of urban lore amongst players? Any input would be appreciated.

            Hello again casino crawler  (Bey Effendi ?) et al,

            I am rewriting on your thought provocative topic as my (another) original post has mysteriously deleted without notice,Confused

            So I am going to take it from the top, this time  with music 

            I put before you, for serious consideration, another cause and effect theory that may have more practical application....

            Heisenberg Effect

            Werner Heisenberg was a German theoretical physicist was a quantim forerunner saying that an evnt did not exist unless witnessed & when observed the event becomes changed

             

            Hope fully this message gets through to you......

            Vox Clamantis in Deserto Nevado

            (Voice crying in the Nevada desert). 

            Eddessa_knight Sun Smiley

              casino crawler's avatar - Lottery-049.jpg
              San Diego, CA
              United States
              Member #165351
              April 3, 2015
              86 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: April 13, 2015, 6:13 pm - IP Logged

              It disappeared??/ That is its own paradox.  Actually I saw your name and came over here.  I am now going to quote people's text and ask for an email notification so I can find these.  Still learning the lottery post ropes.  I will do my homework on yours...thanks for the response!  I see there are a lot of math geek types (my second major undergrad)...maybe thats why I like Keno and the lottery (well I like the Fantasy Five...in Cal...better odds)

                casino crawler's avatar - Lottery-049.jpg
                San Diego, CA
                United States
                Member #165351
                April 3, 2015
                86 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: April 13, 2015, 6:21 pm - IP Logged

                In plain English, if the national median wage has increased but median wages in every educational subgroup (H.S. dropouts, Bachelor's degree recipients, etc.) has decreased, then you have a Simpson's paradox. The rub for this case lies in the proportion of the educational subgroup making higher/lower median wages.

                Usefulness to the lottery: none that I know of

                Good for practical examples of counterintuitive statistics though

                I raised it since I was discussing casino keno in another forum.  Based on the pure mathematics, me and the person who taught me to play are beating incredible odds (over 9 million to 1) to win the progressive jackpots that we have.  So I was trying to look beyond the pure math...and see if there was any explanation.

                 

                I know ...I know...you can't believe much about what you hear in a casino....Wink

                  eddessaknight's avatar - nw paladin.jpg
                  LAS VEGAS
                  United States
                  Member #47729
                  November 22, 2006
                  4494 Posts
                  Online
                  Posted: April 14, 2015, 6:54 pm - IP Logged

                  I raised it since I was discussing casino keno in another forum.  Based on the pure mathematics, me and the person who taught me to play are beating incredible odds (over 9 million to 1) to win the progressive jackpots that we have.  So I was trying to look beyond the pure math...and see if there was any explanation.

                   

                  I know ...I know...you can't believe much about what you hear in a casino....Wink

                  Hi guy.

                  First a remedial Congratulations Drum on beating incredible odds of over 9 million to 1, not easy to do with straight math unless there is a super computer?

                  I like the Cali 5 also, I really love any 5 that comes out of a single source (like keno) vs different machines mix

                  Relative to maintaining I offer a few humble precepts:

                  My activity @ gambling ground zero for the last 24 years includes (pro bono publico) assisting some good guys & gals (advantage players) to contend with casino reactions to their winning with countermeasures. After developing a consistent positive ROI game plan the next & bigger challenge is how keep on profiting without interference! Once player is found to be a major winner they are identified. automatically recorded w/photo & info systematically shared downstream with other operators - world wide 

                  Case in point, a nice senior known keno patron just won $100,00 wagering $400 bet on CashAll game winning numbers  20-30-61-72. When a patron puts down the hammer *(huge wager) you can bet he believes in the outcome. Any way this major paranoid casino detains him 5 hours so background checks can be done with police records, gaming control board, Griffith private gaming detective agency, etc _- no game operators, including outrageous playing odds of keno & lotteries are going to sit idly by not reacting to consistent winners who are seen as a threat their bottom line ~as a nice enough & smart young man I know you SAVVY???

                  *Seagram's Whiskey CEO Samuel Broffman : "To make $120 from $100 is hard work but to make $120 Million from $100M i inevitable !"

                   

                  FORTES FORTUNA JUVAT
                  Eddessa_Knight Sun Smiley

                    str8ca$hhomie's avatar - Cash

                    United States
                    Member #146028
                    August 22, 2013
                    842 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: April 16, 2015, 8:34 am - IP Logged

                    Simpson's paradox refers to a phenomena where by the association between a pair of variables (X,Y) reverses sign upon conditioning of a third variable, Z ,regardless of the value taken by Z. If we partition the data into subpopulations, each representing a specific value of the third variable, the phenomena appears as a sign reversal between the associations measured in the disaggregated subpopulations relative to the aggregated data, which describes the population as a whole.

                    Good Morning Raven 62,

                    Just a thought off the top of my head, and by the way you explained this very well, but do you think that it could be possible that Gail Howard was aware of this phenomena when she coined the term "Reverse Cascade" which just happens to be one of the functions to be considered in the Drawings Between Hits  Chart #4 in the Advantage Plus Program ??

                    Sometimes it's extremely difficult if not practically impossible to get people to disregard the smoke and mirrors.  Instead, they seem to enjoy the ride down the proverbial Garden Path....... helpless to extricate themselves from being totally deceived by known forces in their midst who would argue that they have come here for the sole purpose of helping people.......str8ca$hhomie

                      casino crawler's avatar - Lottery-049.jpg
                      San Diego, CA
                      United States
                      Member #165351
                      April 3, 2015
                      86 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: April 16, 2015, 6:16 pm - IP Logged

                      Hi guy.

                      First a remedial Congratulations Drum on beating incredible odds of over 9 million to 1, not easy to do with straight math unless there is a super computer?

                      I like the Cali 5 also, I really love any 5 that comes out of a single source (like keno) vs different machines mix

                      Relative to maintaining I offer a few humble precepts:

                      My activity @ gambling ground zero for the last 24 years includes (pro bono publico) assisting some good guys & gals (advantage players) to contend with casino reactions to their winning with countermeasures. After developing a consistent positive ROI game plan the next & bigger challenge is how keep on profiting without interference! Once player is found to be a major winner they are identified. automatically recorded w/photo & info systematically shared downstream with other operators - world wide 

                      Case in point, a nice senior known keno patron just won $100,00 wagering $400 bet on CashAll game winning numbers  20-30-61-72. When a patron puts down the hammer *(huge wager) you can bet he believes in the outcome. Any way this major paranoid casino detains him 5 hours so background checks can be done with police records, gaming control board, Griffith private gaming detective agency, etc _- no game operators, including outrageous playing odds of keno & lotteries are going to sit idly by not reacting to consistent winners who are seen as a threat their bottom line ~as a nice enough & smart young man I know you SAVVY???

                      *Seagram's Whiskey CEO Samuel Broffman : "To make $120 from $100 is hard work but to make $120 Million from $100M i inevitable !"

                       

                      FORTES FORTUNA JUVAT
                      Eddessa_Knight Sun Smiley

                      You are right about everything...except I am a female.  I find most of the real keno addicts around here are the women....  That itself maybe counterinuitive since women are supposedly less math oriented.  When I got my degree (back when) I was one of only two women in the program.

                      Some of the tribal casinos around here are parainoid too.  Two old women changed seats after a major win (truth is the winner had to go to the bathroom after hitting) and the friend sat there waiting for them to "key" the jackpot.  End of story, a five hour detention as well...but the old ladies sued for talse imprisonment and I heard the casino settled...so I guess they got a second jackpot!