Anyone ever hear of the "Simpson Effect"?Prev TopicNext Topic

• casino crawler

  

  San Diego, CA
  United States
  Member #165,343
  April 3, 2015
  86 Posts
  Offline
  Apr 10, 2015, 3:40 pm

  ▲▼

  I heard this idea years ago from some crusty gambler to the effect that a person's can actual effect the result of a seemingly random endeavor (like playing lotto or the slotI never could find anything on it, but I did see the "Simpson paradox" and the Simpson-Yule studies that talk about statistics and improbable results...now I am paraphrasing greatly.  I am wondering if the "Simpson Effect" is just a sort of urban lore amongst players? Any input would be appreciated.
• Coin Toss

  

  Zeta Reticuli Star System
  United States
  Member #30,469
  January 17, 2006
  11,788 Posts
  Offline
  Apr 10, 2015, 8:38 pm

  ▲▼

  Simpson's paradox
  
  From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
  
  Simpson's paradox for continuous data: a positive trend appears for two separate groups (blue and red), a negative trend (black, dashed) appears when the data are combined.
  Simpson's paradox, or the Yule�Simpson effect, is a paradox in probability and statistics, in which a trend that appears in different groups of data disappears or reverses when these groups are combined. It is sometimes given the impersonal title reversal paradox or amalgamation paradox.[1]
  
  This result is often encountered in social-science and medical-science statistics,[2] and is particularly confounding when frequency data are unduly given causal interpretations.[3] Simpson's paradox disappears when causal relations are brought into consideration. Many statisticians believe that the mainstream public should be informed of the counter-intuitive results in statistics such as Simpson's paradox.[4][5]
  
  Edward H. Simpson first described this phenomenon in a technical paper in 1951,[6] but the statisticians Karl Pearson, et al., in 1899,[7] and Udny Yule, in 1903, had mentioned similar effects earlier.[8] The name Simpson's paradox was introduced by Colin R. Blyth in 1972.[9]
  
  _________________________________________________________
  
  Not sure if that's what you meant but it sounds like the 'crusty gambler' was trying to convince you some kind of gambler's voodoo or universal consciousness works.

  Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any. So many systems, so many theories, so few jackpot winners. 

  

  There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.
• Raven62

  

  25

  New Jersey
  United States
  Member #17,842
  June 28, 2005
  180,983 Posts
  Offline
  Apr 10, 2015, 9:07 pm

  ▲▼

  Simpson's paradox refers to a phenomena where by the association between a pair of variables (X,Y) reverses sign upon conditioning of a third variable, Z ,regardless of the value taken by Z. If we partition the data into subpopulations, each representing a specific value of the third variable, the phenomena appears as a sign reversal between the associations measured in the disaggregated subpopulations relative to the aggregated data, which describes the population as a whole.

  A mind once stretched by a new idea never returns to its original dimensions!
  
  Catch-22: A dilemma or difficult circumstance from which there is no escape because of mutually conflicting or dependent conditions.
  
  Corruptissima re publica plurimae leges: When the republic is at its most corrupt the laws are most numerous.
  
  The best way to learn is to never stop being an Experiential Student!
• LottoMetro

  

  Happyland
  United States
  Member #146,338
  September 1, 2013
  1,176 Posts
  Offline
  Apr 10, 2015, 11:19 pm

  ▲▼

  In plain English, if the national median wage has increased but median wages in every educational subgroup (H.S. dropouts, Bachelor's degree recipients, etc.) has decreased, then you have a Simpson's paradox. The rub for this case lies in the proportion of the educational subgroup making higher/lower median wages.

  Usefulness to the lottery: none that I know of

  Good for practical examples of counterintuitive statistics though

  If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
  If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

  P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1
• Original Bey

  

  Bahamas
  Member #133,456
  September 30, 2012
  7,146 Posts
  Offline
  Apr 10, 2015, 11:21 pm

  ▲▼
  In response to LottoMetro

  Quote: Originally posted by LottoMetro on Apr 10, 2015

  In plain English, if the national median wage has increased but median wages in every educational subgroup (H.S. dropouts, Bachelor's degree recipients, etc.) has decreased, then you have a Simpson's paradox. The rub for this case lies in the proportion of the educational subgroup making higher/lower median wages.

  Usefulness to the lottery: none that I know of

  Good for practical examples of counterintuitive statistics though

  Thank you! Lol.

  "Do everything you can. Then, leave the rest to luck."
• eddessaknight

  

  LAS VEGAS
  United States
  Member #47,728
  November 22, 2006
  9,355 Posts
  Offline
  Apr 13, 2015, 3:42 pm

  ▲▼
  In response to casino crawler

  Quote: Originally posted by casino crawler on Apr 10, 2015

  I heard this idea years ago from some crusty gambler to the effect that a person's can actual effect the result of a seemingly random endeavor (like playing lotto or the slotI never could find anything on it, but I did see the "Simpson paradox" and the Simpson-Yule studies that talk about statistics and improbable results...now I am paraphrasing greatly.  I am wondering if the "Simpson Effect" is just a sort of urban lore amongst players? Any input would be appreciated.

  Hello again casino crawler  (Bey Effendi ?) et al,

  I am rewriting on your thought provocative topic as my (another) original post has mysteriously deleted without notice,

  So I am going to take it from the top, this time  with music 

  I put before you, for serious consideration, another cause and effect theory that may have more practical application....

  Heisenberg Effect

  Werner Heisenberg was a German theoretical physicist was a quantim forerunner saying that an evnt did not exist unless witnessed & when observed the event becomes changed

   

  Hope fully this message gets through to you......

  Vox Clamantis in Deserto Nevado

  (Voice crying in the Nevada desert). 

  Eddessa_knight 
• casino crawler

  

  San Diego, CA
  United States
  Member #165,343
  April 3, 2015
  86 Posts
  Offline
  Apr 13, 2015, 6:13 pm

  ▲▼

  It disappeared??/ That is its own paradox.  Actually I saw your name and came over here.  I am now going to quote people's text and ask for an email notification so I can find these.  Still learning the lottery post ropes.  I will do my homework on yours...thanks for the response!  I see there are a lot of math geek types (my second major undergrad)...maybe thats why I like Keno and the lottery (well I like the Fantasy Five...in Cal...better odds)
• casino crawler

  

  San Diego, CA
  United States
  Member #165,343
  April 3, 2015
  86 Posts
  Offline
  Apr 13, 2015, 6:21 pm

  ▲▼
  In response to LottoMetro

  Quote: Originally posted by LottoMetro on Apr 10, 2015

  In plain English, if the national median wage has increased but median wages in every educational subgroup (H.S. dropouts, Bachelor's degree recipients, etc.) has decreased, then you have a Simpson's paradox. The rub for this case lies in the proportion of the educational subgroup making higher/lower median wages.

  Usefulness to the lottery: none that I know of

  Good for practical examples of counterintuitive statistics though

  I raised it since I was discussing casino keno in another forum.  Based on the pure mathematics, me and the person who taught me to play are beating incredible odds (over 9 million to 1) to win the progressive jackpots that we have.  So I was trying to look beyond the pure math...and see if there was any explanation.

   

  I know ...I know...you can't believe much about what you hear in a casino....
• eddessaknight

  

  LAS VEGAS
  United States
  Member #47,728
  November 22, 2006
  9,355 Posts
  Offline
  Apr 14, 2015, 6:54 pm

  ▲▼
  In response to casino crawler

  Quote: Originally posted by casino crawler on Apr 13, 2015

  I raised it since I was discussing casino keno in another forum.  Based on the pure mathematics, me and the person who taught me to play are beating incredible odds (over 9 million to 1) to win the progressive jackpots that we have.  So I was trying to look beyond the pure math...and see if there was any explanation.

   

  I know ...I know...you can't believe much about what you hear in a casino....

  Hi guy.

  First a remedial Congratulations  on beating incredible odds of over 9 million to 1, not easy to do with straight math unless there is a super computer?

  I like the Cali 5 also, I really love any 5 that comes out of a single source (like keno) vs different machines mix

  Relative to maintaining I offer a few humble precepts:

  My activity @ gambling ground zero for the last 24 years includes (pro bono publico) assisting some good guys & gals (advantage players) to contend with casino reactions to their winning with countermeasures. After developing a consistent positive ROI game plan the next & bigger challenge is how keep on profiting without interference! Once player is found to be a major winner they are identified. automatically recorded w/photo & info systematically shared downstream with other operators - world wide 

  Case in point, a nice senior known keno patron just won $100,00 wagering $400 bet on CashAll game winning numbers  20-30-61-72. When a patron puts down the hammer *(huge wager) you can bet he believes in the outcome. Any way this major paranoid casino detains him 5 hours so background checks can be done with police records, gaming control board, Griffith private gaming detective agency, etc _- no game operators, including outrageous playing odds of keno & lotteries are going to sit idly by not reacting to consistent winners who are seen as a threat their bottom line ~as a nice enough & smart young man I know you SAVVY???

  *Seagram's Whiskey CEO Samuel Broffman : "To make $120 from $100 is hard work but to make $120 Million from $100M i inevitable !"

   

  FORTES FORTUNA JUVAT
  Eddessa_Knight 
• str8ca$hhomie

  

  United States
  Member #146,022
  August 22, 2013
  1,425 Posts
  Offline
  Apr 16, 2015, 8:34 am

  ▲▼
  In response to Raven62

  Quote: Originally posted by Raven62 on Apr 10, 2015

  Simpson's paradox refers to a phenomena where by the association between a pair of variables (X,Y) reverses sign upon conditioning of a third variable, Z ,regardless of the value taken by Z. If we partition the data into subpopulations, each representing a specific value of the third variable, the phenomena appears as a sign reversal between the associations measured in the disaggregated subpopulations relative to the aggregated data, which describes the population as a whole.

  Good Morning Raven 62,

  Just a thought off the top of my head, and by the way you explained this very well, but do you think that it could be possible that Gail Howard was aware of this phenomena when she coined the term "Reverse Cascade" which just happens to be one of the functions to be considered in the Drawings Between Hits  Chart #4 in the Advantage Plus Program ??

  Sometimes it's extremely difficult if not practically impossible to get people to disregard the smoke and mirrors.  Instead, they seem to enjoy the ride down the proverbial Garden Path....... helpless to extricate themselves from being totally deceived by known forces in their midst who would argue that they have come here for the sole purpose of helping people. These forces would also argue that they have a winning MIRACLE system; that is, until asked to post numbers before the drawing !                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                   Str8ca$hhomie
• casino crawler

  

  San Diego, CA
  United States
  Member #165,343
  April 3, 2015
  86 Posts
  Offline
  Apr 16, 2015, 6:16 pm

  ▲▼
  In response to eddessaknight

  Quote: Originally posted by eddessaknight on Apr 14, 2015

  Hi guy.

  First a remedial Congratulations  on beating incredible odds of over 9 million to 1, not easy to do with straight math unless there is a super computer?

  I like the Cali 5 also, I really love any 5 that comes out of a single source (like keno) vs different machines mix

  Relative to maintaining I offer a few humble precepts:

  My activity @ gambling ground zero for the last 24 years includes (pro bono publico) assisting some good guys & gals (advantage players) to contend with casino reactions to their winning with countermeasures. After developing a consistent positive ROI game plan the next & bigger challenge is how keep on profiting without interference! Once player is found to be a major winner they are identified. automatically recorded w/photo & info systematically shared downstream with other operators - world wide 

  Case in point, a nice senior known keno patron just won $100,00 wagering $400 bet on CashAll game winning numbers  20-30-61-72. When a patron puts down the hammer *(huge wager) you can bet he believes in the outcome. Any way this major paranoid casino detains him 5 hours so background checks can be done with police records, gaming control board, Griffith private gaming detective agency, etc _- no game operators, including outrageous playing odds of keno & lotteries are going to sit idly by not reacting to consistent winners who are seen as a threat their bottom line ~as a nice enough & smart young man I know you SAVVY???

  *Seagram's Whiskey CEO Samuel Broffman : "To make $120 from $100 is hard work but to make $120 Million from $100M i inevitable !"

   

  FORTES FORTUNA JUVAT
  Eddessa_Knight 

  You are right about everything...except I am a female.  I find most of the real keno addicts around here are the women....  That itself maybe counterinuitive since women are supposedly less math oriented.  When I got my degree (back when) I was one of only two women in the program.

  Some of the tribal casinos around here are parainoid too.  Two old women changed seats after a major win (truth is the winner had to go to the bathroom after hitting) and the friend sat there waiting for them to "key" the jackpot.  End of story, a five hour detention as well...but the old ladies sued for talse imprisonment and I heard the casino settled...so I guess they got a second jackpot!