Is there a mathematical law dictating the outcome?Prev TopicNext Topic

• SergeM

  

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  Aug 31, 2015, 1:14 pm

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  Is there a mathematical law dictating the outcome?

  Is it possible to win?

  
• bigbear29

  

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  mmmmmmmmmm, I'm thinking no.  I think just creating your own numbers and just sticking with it.  I say no because I don't think that Pb or MM is truly random number picking.
• savagegoose

  

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    there is certainty that the numbers drawn will be between 1-n where n is the max numbers drawn

  " Still swinging, still missing "
  2014 = -1016; 2015= -1409; 2016  = -1171; 2017 = -1257 ; 2018 = - 1380 =  TOT =  - 6233

  keno historic = -2291 ; 2015= -603; 2016= -424; 2017 =-427; 2018= -223   TOT = -3968

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• Stack47

  

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  In response to bigbear29

  Quote: Originally posted by bigbear29 on Aug 31, 2015

  mmmmmmmmmm, I'm thinking no.  I think just creating your own numbers and just sticking with it.  I say no because I don't think that Pb or MM is truly random number picking.

  How long it takes depends on the game. The NY evening pick-3 has 12,705 drawings and all 1000 possible outcomes were drawn. Games with millions of possible outcomes could take over 2.5 million years before there is enough drawings for just to make it possible. Your guess is as good as mine of how many millions of years of more drawings it would take until all the outcomes are drawn.

  "I say no because I don't think that Pb or MM is truly random number picking."

  On average there should be one five number match for every 18,492,204 tickets sold so you could check individual state ticket sales to prove or disprove your "not random" theory.
• bigbear29

  

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  Yes, that's why I say pick some numbers and just stick with it.
• MonEl

  

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  In response to bigbear29

  Quote: Originally posted by bigbear29 on Aug 31, 2015

  Yes, that's why I say pick some numbers and just stick with it.

  Once you know all the facts if you ever do!

  For example, for mechanical drawings:

  http://csep10.phys.utk.edu/astr161/lect/history/newton3laws.html

  For RNGs something else would apply, What? I don't know!

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• RJOh

  

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  In response to Stack47

  Quote: Originally posted by Stack47 on Aug 31, 2015

  How long it takes depends on the game. The NY evening pick-3 has 12,705 drawings and all 1000 possible outcomes were drawn. Games with millions of possible outcomes could take over 2.5 million years before there is enough drawings for just to make it possible. Your guess is as good as mine of how many millions of years of more drawings it would take until all the outcomes are drawn.

  "I say no because I don't think that Pb or MM is truly random number picking."

  On average there should be one five number match for every 18,492,204 tickets sold so you could check individual state ticket sales to prove or disprove your "not random" theory.

  "On average there should be one five number match for every 18,492,204 tickets sold so you could check individual state ticket sales to prove or disprove your "not random" theory."

  Since each state contributes more than 60% of their sales to their jackpots I would expect each state lottery commissions are already doing that to make sure they aren't being taken advantage of.

   * you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones * 

         
  
• Raven62

  

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  In response to SergeM

  Quote: Originally posted by SergeM on Aug 31, 2015

  Is there a mathematical law dictating the outcome?

  Is it possible to win?

  Benford's Law states that the quantity of most things in the real world is more likely to be described by a number beginning in 1 than any other digit, and the likelihood of it being described by other digits declines  as those digits get higher.

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• RJOh

  

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  In response to SergeM

  Quote: Originally posted by SergeM on Aug 31, 2015

  Is there a mathematical law dictating the outcome?

  Is it possible to win?

  I wouldn't call it a law but a mathematical formula describing the possible outcomes, the probability formula the says a 6/49 lottery has 13,983,816 possible outcomes.  But when the most popular combination of two is played and it's in the drawing results the possible out comes are reduced to 178,386 possible outcomes.

  It's kinda like when Massachusetts had its Windfall game with a rollback every three months or so, everyone knew that a 5of6 would pay more the cost of the number of tickets to guaranteed such a win if no one hit the jackpot but few could afford such a gamble.  It's those high stake risks that most gamblers aren't willing to take that make the game fair for most of its players.  Once it become know that someone is willing to take those risks and winning as a result the game will be eliminated such as was with the Windfall game.

   * you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones * 

         
  
• SergeM

  

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  But when the most popular combination of two is played ...

  Do you mean the most frequent couple?
• SergeM

  

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  Sometimes I could notice characteristics for some games that could lead to a win. I tend to forget what I intended to play these days, probably because I don't want to spend my money on the lottery, as the win is categorized as unsure.

  Playing the top frequent couple means believing that there is a trend for this. It is sticking to a pair of numbers, just waiting for it to be drawn.

  Probably there is no trick to it, somebody would win all the time.
• RJOh

  

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  Sep 2, 2015, 4:58 pm

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  In response to SergeM

  Quote: Originally posted by SergeM on Sep 2, 2015

  But when the most popular combination of two is played ...

  Do you mean the most frequent couple?

  The most frequent anything, couple of numbers, patterns and etc.  There's no reason for anything, numbers, patterns and etc to stand out from the rest in a totally random event and yet some do.  Playing combinations that take advantage of those freaks could payoff in time.

   * you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones * 

         
  
• SergeM

  

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  With mathematics the result is approaching the average the more experiences we make. Numbers stand out, we only have a short period, only at the end one would now. A turning wheel just might have a preference to stop at a certain number or group of numbers, just because of the device being like that. Just that might be what we are looking for. With the huge amount of possible outcomes, this might just be too hard to find or it doesn't pay as the payout is diluted.
  Looking at your scores on the board, you do things correctly, eventually with a bit of luck.
  So I thought there is absolute randomness approaching the average closely and there are groups of combinations that may score higher due to the machine. You can understand quickpick players that don't worry about programs and methods of picking numbers.