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Should I play hot or cold numbers? Came up with this...

Topic closed. 3 replies. Last post 1 year ago by RJOh.

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United States
Member #35335
March 16, 2006
116 Posts
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Posted: November 8, 2015, 11:00 pm - IP Logged

I have always preferred to play cold numbers in jackpot games, but this could apply to any type game.  I have always based my calculations on the only two data points given, 1) number of times each number is drawn, and 2) number of draws since each number was last seen.  I have my own weighting for each criteria to give a number it's "coldness" factor.

I've been thinking about MM a lot lately.  I noticed that the average draws since last seen of all numbers is 14.0266.  I suspect that the average draws since last seen should be 75 / 5 = 15.  I would like confirmation on that from somebody.  Thanks in advance.  If all 75 balls came up in only 15 draws, therefore no repeats, then the average would be 8.  Expectations are that numbers do repeat within a 15 draw span, so 8 cannot be right.  So, I really don't have an image of what the average number of draws since last seen should be.

Here's my new plan.  If the average draws since last seen for all numbers < 15, play the hot numbers to get cold numbers even colder, that way the average goes up.  If the average draws since last seen > 15, play the cold numbers to get that average down.

I think I am having a difficult time explaining this.  Let me show you the first 10 numbers of MM.  The second column is the actual number of draws since last seen.

127
27
313
411
517
66
78
89
94
101

The average of those 10 numbers shown above is 10.3.  If I played the number 1, and it hit, the next chart would show the number 1 as 1 draw since last seen.  All the rest of the numbers would increment up by 1.  Here is the new chart below if we saw only the number 1 come up, but not the other numbers.

11
28
314
412
518
67
79
810
95
102

The average of that second chart is now 8.6, down from 10.3.  Taking out that 27 draws ago number really made a big difference in the average.  Had the number 1 not come up, then it would have incremented up to 28 and helped increase the average, rather than lower it.

Ugh, I know numbers not language.  There you have it.  I'll play some MM numbers < 14.02666 draws ago, or essentially the hot numbers in the hopes of not seeing cold numbers hit.  When those cold numbers continue to be not drawn, the average goes up.  I'm targeting 15, if that earlier theory proves correct.

Since I already placed my predictions for next Tuesday's drawing, I'll post some hot numbers (according to my criteria) as a public record.  Can't go about claiming some numbers came up or a method worked after the fact, now can we?  Note, I am only posting the white balls here, no mega balls are shown.

27-32-41-48-52
25-28-32-56-72
04-24-32-74-75
09-17-24-32-61
25-29-52-53-67
02-07-14-51-53
29-39-41-48-56
02-08-27-61-68
45-61-69-74-75
04-09-17-26-53

    Tialuvslotto's avatar - Jailin
    Texas
    United States
    Member #150797
    December 31, 2013
    815 Posts
    Online
    Posted: November 9, 2015, 8:09 am - IP Logged

    I view hot/cold as I do any other split classification of lottery numbers like E/O or Hi/Lo -- most draws will have some of each.

    Your proposed method sounds reasonable, however you might want to examine whether it is better to play against the trend or with it.  In my experience, the trends in these big lotteries are long and slow to turn around, so you might want to play with the direction of the average, rather than to play for the trend to reverse directions.

    I don't have any direct information for Powerball on the average length of time it takes all 75 white balls to play, but for a 6/49 lottery the average number of games to play all 49 balls is 31.  So, powerball being approximately 1.5 times more balls, I would guess-timate that it would take about 47 games +/- for all the balls to be played.

    "There is no such thing as luck; only adequate or inadequate preparation to cope with a statistical universe."

    ~Robert A. Heinlein

      SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
      Economy class
      Belgium
      Member #123700
      February 27, 2012
      4035 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: November 9, 2015, 2:37 pm - IP Logged

      I have always preferred to play cold numbers in jackpot games, but this could apply to any type game.  I have always based my calculations on the only two data points given, 1) number of times each number is drawn, and 2) number of draws since each number was last seen.  I have my own weighting for each criteria to give a number it's "coldness" factor.

      I've been thinking about MM a lot lately.  I noticed that the average draws since last seen of all numbers is 14.0266.  I suspect that the average draws since last seen should be 75 / 5 = 15.  I would like confirmation on that from somebody.  Thanks in advance.  If all 75 balls came up in only 15 draws, therefore no repeats, then the average would be 8.  Expectations are that numbers do repeat within a 15 draw span, so 8 cannot be right.  So, I really don't have an image of what the average number of draws since last seen should be.

      Here's my new plan.  If the average draws since last seen for all numbers < 15, play the hot numbers to get cold numbers even colder, that way the average goes up.  If the average draws since last seen > 15, play the cold numbers to get that average down.

      I think I am having a difficult time explaining this.  Let me show you the first 10 numbers of MM.  The second column is the actual number of draws since last seen.

      127
      27
      313
      411
      517
      66
      78
      89
      94
      101

      The average of those 10 numbers shown above is 10.3.  If I played the number 1, and it hit, the next chart would show the number 1 as 1 draw since last seen.  All the rest of the numbers would increment up by 1.  Here is the new chart below if we saw only the number 1 come up, but not the other numbers.

      11
      28
      314
      412
      518
      67
      79
      810
      95
      102

      The average of that second chart is now 8.6, down from 10.3.  Taking out that 27 draws ago number really made a big difference in the average.  Had the number 1 not come up, then it would have incremented up to 28 and helped increase the average, rather than lower it.

      Ugh, I know numbers not language.  There you have it.  I'll play some MM numbers < 14.02666 draws ago, or essentially the hot numbers in the hopes of not seeing cold numbers hit.  When those cold numbers continue to be not drawn, the average goes up.  I'm targeting 15, if that earlier theory proves correct.

      Since I already placed my predictions for next Tuesday's drawing, I'll post some hot numbers (according to my criteria) as a public record.  Can't go about claiming some numbers came up or a method worked after the fact, now can we?  Note, I am only posting the white balls here, no mega balls are shown.

      27-32-41-48-52
      25-28-32-56-72
      04-24-32-74-75
      09-17-24-32-61
      25-29-52-53-67
      02-07-14-51-53
      29-39-41-48-56
      02-08-27-61-68
      45-61-69-74-75
      04-09-17-26-53

      I believe that in SL they use average as measure. They even construct rules on that. Unfortunately that does not do it.

      If you talk of "hot" and "cold" program wise, you have to define precisely what you mean. I just am guessing now that you divide the numbers in two groups, those who are out shorter or longer than the average. The proportions change.

        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
        mid-Ohio
        United States
        Member #9
        March 24, 2001
        19816 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: November 9, 2015, 5:11 pm - IP Logged

        You should play which ever wins.  Check which ones has hit most in previous drawings and play them, that's what I've been doing without much success.

         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
           
                     Evil Looking