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My take on systems

Topic closed. 7 replies. Last post 10 months ago by skin777.

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New Member
Topeka,KS
United States
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January 16, 2016
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Posted: January 16, 2016, 11:27 pm - IP Logged

Hi all, I'm new here, just found the website after the big Powerball hype.  Anyway, I bought Gail Howards stuff back in the 90's on DOS.  LOL....played a few times, lost.   Shelved it for 20 years.   Now I pulled out her books to play powerball, and I won $14 for the $20 I spent!   Pretty good, eh?

Lucky.

I was thinking about the wheels alone, not accounting for number selection.  Lets say I use a wheel with 12 numbers in 24 combinations.

Now, the jackpot has odds of 1 in 292,201,338.  Now, If I take the square root of that, I get a grid of 17094 x 17094. 

Each spot on the grid represents one of the 292,201,338 possible combinations.  Imagine the grid is organized in some logical way.

When someone gets 24 quick picks, they have 24 individual combinations spread around the entire grid randomly. Odds are 24 in 292,201,338.

When someone wheels 12 numbers in 24 combinations, their 24 picks are not spread around randomly, but more like a shotgun pattern (of 24 pellet birdshot) in one area of the huge grid.  Still, Odds are 24 in 292,201,338. 

NOT DIFFERENT ODDS.  The idea is an illusion that makes you feel like you are aiming at a target, say in the upper quadrant of the huge grid, as though you have some insight into eliminating the other 3 quadrants.

In other words, wheels don't change your overall odds. They just make tracking where "your" 24 picks are, a bit easier in your mind. Yes you have a more refined method of shooting 24 combinations using your birdshot, but you are still wearing a blindfold when you are aiming it.

So, then, the only way a "system" can do anything better than quick picks is through number selection, or more appropriately, number elimination.  (See, your wheeled shotgun "pattern sprays"  those 24 pellets in a comparatively tiny circle on the huge grid of possibilities)  Picking the numbers for your wheel is essentially like choosing where to "aim" your 24 combinations.  And on top of that, different wheels have different "spray patterns" on the big 17094 x 17094 grid.   For example, one with a "key number" just changes the shape of your 24 pellet birdshot from round to, say, a larger half-circle. I spent a bunch of time looking over all the wheels, and trying to find the ones that fit my budget, and made me feel good about my odds.  But in reality, they all just have different spray patterns on the massive grid, and no different odds.

So, does eliminating 3/4ths of the field really work?  Or are we just fooling ourselves into deciding where to aim.  I feel pretty good about eliminating 1-2-3-4-5 with Powerball 6.   But should I?  The odds are pretty good that it will hit someday.  The same odds as hitting 4-12-22-32-56 PB 19

So, last bit, is there merit in choosing a shotgun pattern and size for the sake of a smaller prize win?  Can a particular wheel along with "some" number elimination ever come close to a break even in the long term using the SMALLER PRIZES to supplement the bank roll?

 

Nice to meet y'all!

 

MOJO321

    gra8*2win's avatar - spherewall
    williamson county
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    November 14, 2011
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    Posted: January 16, 2016, 11:57 pm - IP Logged

    welcome to lottery post

    You can't control the wind, but you can adjust your sails

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      New Member

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      January 25, 2016
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      Posted: January 26, 2016, 12:02 am - IP Logged

      Hello, I'm also new to the forum.  I teach math and often use lotteries as examples of combinatorial and probability problems, I joined the forum out of morbid curiosity after talking with a fellow who spends more than a $100 a month on tix and scratchers.  I thought I had met a unique person with a lottery addiction, but turns out there are hundreds, thousands of people like him!  Uncle Sam thanks all of them for their voluntary tax payments. 

      Anyway, you are right about the "wheel" systems as the lingo around here goes.  They do not improve a player's odds of winning games that are not rigged/flawed.  These systems that people hawk can only work on games with flaws, but how long do you think lottery commissions will let flawed games run?  Once they find the hole they plug it up, and there goes the system.

        lakerben's avatar - spherewall
        New Mexico
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        January 29, 2010
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        Posted: January 26, 2016, 12:16 am - IP Logged

        Hello, I'm also new to the forum.  I teach math and often use lotteries as examples of combinatorial and probability problems, I joined the forum out of morbid curiosity after talking with a fellow who spends more than a $100 a month on tix and scratchers.  I thought I had met a unique person with a lottery addiction, but turns out there are hundreds, thousands of people like him!  Uncle Sam thanks all of them for their voluntary tax payments. 

        Anyway, you are right about the "wheel" systems as the lingo around here goes.  They do not improve a player's odds of winning games that are not rigged/flawed.  These systems that people hawk can only work on games with flaws, but how long do you think lottery commissions will let flawed games run?  Once they find the hole they plug it up, and there goes the system.

        Thick as a brick was one of Jethro tulls songs.

        How about them cowboys!

         

         

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          RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

          United States
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          March 13, 2008
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          Posted: January 26, 2016, 12:32 am - IP Logged

          24 in 292,201,338 can also be expressed as 1 in 12,175,055.  Playing 24 lines gives you better odds than

          playing a 6-49 game at 1 in 13,983,816.  Almost nobody mentions these odds.  Playing 100 PB lines regardless

          of how they are chosen gives odds of 1 in 1,922,013. 

           

          Do systems work, it depends on when / how they are played. 

           

          The lottery offers more than the chance of winning a prize or loosing our butts.  It can be fun as long as we

          don't go wild playing too many tickets.  People are competitive and the odds don't mean much so who really

          cares.

           

          Look at the number  of sports fans that spend tons of money on tickets and other stuff.  How much do the

          fans win, bragging rights mostly or if they are in the right place at the right time then maybe one of those

          random give-a-ways prizes that are thrown out to the fans.   Sports fans enjoy the sport for what it is, a

          game.

           

          Taking everything into consideration why even ask unless it makes one feel better about themselves somehow.

           

          Welcome to LP

          RL

          Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

          I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

          they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

          USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

            US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

            RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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            Posted: January 26, 2016, 12:42 am - IP Logged

            P.S.  Some sports fans will fight to defend their team.  Why should system players be any different?

                   Sports fans can muster up a lot of faith even when their team is a underdog and sometimes 

                   the underdogs win. 

            RL

            Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

            I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

            they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

            USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

              US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

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              Horwood NL
              Canada
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              February 6, 2009
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              Posted: January 26, 2016, 7:59 am - IP Logged

              P.S.  Some sports fans will fight to defend their team.  Why should system players be any different?

                     Sports fans can muster up a lot of faith even when their team is a underdog and sometimes 

                     the underdogs win. 

              RL

              Well said .I Agree!

              GW

                skin777's avatar - cat anm.gif
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                Panthers Country
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                November 8, 2015
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                Posted: February 1, 2016, 7:34 pm - IP Logged

                I agree with you!Banana