|Posted: January 16, 2016, 11:27 pm - IP Logged|
Hi all, I'm new here, just found the website after the big Powerball hype. Anyway, I bought Gail Howards stuff back in the 90's on DOS. LOL....played a few times, lost. Shelved it for 20 years. Now I pulled out her books to play powerball, and I won $14 for the $20 I spent! Pretty good, eh?
I was thinking about the wheels alone, not accounting for number selection. Lets say I use a wheel with 12 numbers in 24 combinations.
Now, the jackpot has odds of 1 in 292,201,338. Now, If I take the square root of that, I get a grid of 17094 x 17094.
Each spot on the grid represents one of the 292,201,338 possible combinations. Imagine the grid is organized in some logical way.
When someone gets 24 quick picks, they have 24 individual combinations spread around the entire grid randomly. Odds are 24 in 292,201,338.
When someone wheels 12 numbers in 24 combinations, their 24 picks are not spread around randomly, but more like a shotgun pattern (of 24 pellet birdshot) in one area of the huge grid. Still, Odds are 24 in 292,201,338.
NOT DIFFERENT ODDS. The idea is an illusion that makes you feel like you are aiming at a target, say in the upper quadrant of the huge grid, as though you have some insight into eliminating the other 3 quadrants.
In other words, wheels don't change your overall odds. They just make tracking where "your" 24 picks are, a bit easier in your mind. Yes you have a more refined method of shooting 24 combinations using your birdshot, but you are still wearing a blindfold when you are aiming it.
So, then, the only way a "system" can do anything better than quick picks is through number selection, or more appropriately, number elimination. (See, your wheeled shotgun "pattern sprays" those 24 pellets in a comparatively tiny circle on the huge grid of possibilities) Picking the numbers for your wheel is essentially like choosing where to "aim" your 24 combinations. And on top of that, different wheels have different "spray patterns" on the big 17094 x 17094 grid. For example, one with a "key number" just changes the shape of your 24 pellet birdshot from round to, say, a larger half-circle. I spent a bunch of time looking over all the wheels, and trying to find the ones that fit my budget, and made me feel good about my odds. But in reality, they all just have different spray patterns on the massive grid, and no different odds.
So, does eliminating 3/4ths of the field really work? Or are we just fooling ourselves into deciding where to aim. I feel pretty good about eliminating 1-2-3-4-5 with Powerball 6. But should I? The odds are pretty good that it will hit someday. The same odds as hitting 4-12-22-32-56 PB 19
So, last bit, is there merit in choosing a shotgun pattern and size for the sake of a smaller prize win? Can a particular wheel along with "some" number elimination ever come close to a break even in the long term using the SMALLER PRIZES to supplement the bank roll?
Nice to meet y'all!