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Do you buy tickets even when the jackpot isn't high?

Topic closed. 64 replies. Last post 6 months ago by Win$500Quick.

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The jackpot isn't too high, do you still buy tickets?

Yes, I buy a ticket for each draw. [ 49 ]  [57.65%]
Usually, but depends on the jackpot amount. [ 8 ]  [9.41%]
Sometimes, but not always [ 17 ]  [20.00%]
Only when the jackpot is over $100 mil [ 11 ]  [12.94%]
Total Valid Votes [ 85 ]  
Discarded Votes [ 1 ]  
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NY
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October 16, 2005
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Posted: May 7, 2016, 2:10 am - IP Logged

"or do they just better understand the odds against a jackpot being won and wait until the percentages favor a winner?"

Anyone who waits to play just based on the probability of the jackpot being won either doesn't understand probability or isn't very good at thinking.

My chances of winning depend only on how many tickets I buy. 1,2, or 102 tickets give me the exact same chance of winning whether 200 million other tickets are sold or I'm the only one that bought any tickets. As more tickets are sold there's an increased chance that the jackpot will be split, but that only kicks in when sales are quite high. The PB record is a good example.  The cash payout was roughly 3.6 times as big as the current cash value, but the winners only got about 1.2 times what a winner would probably get if they win tomorrow night.

The sensible reason to wait until the jackpot gets big is that for the same probability and cost you get a chance of winning more money. Right now it's a bit over 10 times as much money.

The only good reason I can think of to play for the smaller jackpot is to build bigger jackpots for those who are waiting. You've got the same chance of winning whether you spend $20 on 10 consecutive drawings or on only the 10th drawing, and the 10th will offer a much bigger jackpot.

    MoneyMike$'s avatar - Lottery-050.jpg
    Ny
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    Posted: May 7, 2016, 3:19 am - IP Logged

    Yes. Why not? it's the same odds and still a nice payout. It's always worth it to try and get 5 of 5 on the mega or powerball

    Creativity..

    " What's more likely to happen will happen.. "

    Million dollar operation 

    Wink

      Candy-Lane's avatar - yocco

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      Posted: May 7, 2016, 10:57 am - IP Logged

      You wrote, " Are some players "cheapskates" as they were called in your thread for not buying tickets in every drawings or do they just better understand the odds against a jackpot being won and wait until the percentages favor a winner?"

       Yes,  they are cheapskates!

      I suppose that there's nothing wrong with being a cheapskate, if that is the type of person you want to be.  Just admit it. No need to justify. 

      There is no need to insult others by either implying that they are stupid or, that you are intellectually superior when neither is true.

       

       

       

       

        Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
        Texas
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        Posted: May 7, 2016, 11:34 am - IP Logged

        So, it looks like both MoneyMike$ and KY Floyd also share the same resolve. The the notion of waiting to play based purely on more money while there's still no guarantee, or, increased chance of winning actually intrigues me. Except for those players who cannot afford to play regularly, which is cool, I'm kinda seeing where others may be missing the mark in terms of playing. I think that playership frequency works with the opportunity to win, or, win something at a high rate. But, then there's the player who does drop the coin to play every draw and still hasn't realized anything worth while, and, yet they still remain determined. I like consistency because it's rewarding and I believe that frequent players see it this way as well.

        Now, there's something else that really got my attention and it's why I posted the link to my thread from April of 2012. A study was also conducted in 2012 on the demographics and income of lottery players and I found their discoveries pretty interesting:

         http://journalistsresource.org/studies/economics/personal-finance/research-review-lotteries-demographics

         

        That link was updated in November of 2012. The connection of the mindset in regards to money, playing, frequency, and possibly winning boiled down to what I've always felt which is this excerpt from the article:

         

        -The psychological reasons that explain the connection between poverty and lottery play are complex. A 2008 experimental study in the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making states that “it would be naive to think that low-income individuals disproportionately play lotteries due to ignorance or cognitive errors.” The researchers found that participants, made aware of their low-income status, may play such unlikely odds because of a sense that there is a uniquely level playing field where everyone, rich or poor, has the same chance of winning.- 

        Then, when I decided to research Richey Rich, aka Richard Lustig, I found that my train of thought was complimented in terms of player frequency which, of course, doesn't apply to every single case.

        http://www.cbsnews.com/news/seven-time-lottery-winner-shares-secret-to-winning-powerball/

        -Lustig says he's been playing the lottery for about 25 years. He claims to play every day, but in the first few years, he says he was not winning very much.-

        There are other articles that claim no matter how often one plays, the chances are the same for winning. I beg to differ and see where if past winners hadn't played the time that they won, then they'd still be in search of a win...and still playing frequently. Just wanted to compare and contrast some thoughts.

        Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

        There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

        #lotto-4-a-living

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          Kentucky
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          Posted: May 7, 2016, 5:47 pm - IP Logged

          "or do they just better understand the odds against a jackpot being won and wait until the percentages favor a winner?"

          Anyone who waits to play just based on the probability of the jackpot being won either doesn't understand probability or isn't very good at thinking.

          My chances of winning depend only on how many tickets I buy. 1,2, or 102 tickets give me the exact same chance of winning whether 200 million other tickets are sold or I'm the only one that bought any tickets. As more tickets are sold there's an increased chance that the jackpot will be split, but that only kicks in when sales are quite high. The PB record is a good example.  The cash payout was roughly 3.6 times as big as the current cash value, but the winners only got about 1.2 times what a winner would probably get if they win tomorrow night.

          The sensible reason to wait until the jackpot gets big is that for the same probability and cost you get a chance of winning more money. Right now it's a bit over 10 times as much money.

          The only good reason I can think of to play for the smaller jackpot is to build bigger jackpots for those who are waiting. You've got the same chance of winning whether you spend $20 on 10 consecutive drawings or on only the 10th drawing, and the 10th will offer a much bigger jackpot.

          "My chances of winning depend only on how many tickets I buy. 1,2, or 102 tickets give me the exact same chance of winning whether 200 million other tickets are sold or I'm the only one that bought any tickets.

          The number of tickets you purchase only contribute to the total wagers. Did you miss where I said "the odds of a jackpot being won" are a ratio of all wagers in one drawing compared to the number of possible outcomes?

          As more tickets are sold there's an increased chance that the jackpot will be split, but that only kicks in when sales are quite high."

          If 100 million tickets are sold for tonight's drawing there is still at least a 64% chance nobody will win the jackpot. Every time two tickets are sold with the same five numbers and the same bonus number, there is a chance of a split, but with over 192 million combinations not sold, why are you suggesting a split?

          "The cash payout was roughly 3.6 times as big as the current cash value, but the winners only got about 1.2 times what a winner would probably get if they win tomorrow night. "

          The current cash value is $269.7 million and about 2.14 times smaller than the $577 million each of the three winning tickets get. The only affect the cash value or payments is the obvious; higher jackpots create higher ticket sales and when more tickets are sold the chances of the jackpot being won are higher.

          My point is about the odds against the jackpot being one and not about your or my chance of winning it. Do you agree that a drawing with 150 million in ticket sales has a much better chance of the jackpot being won than a drawing with 15 million in ticket sales?

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            Kentucky
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            Posted: May 7, 2016, 7:49 pm - IP Logged

            You wrote, " Are some players "cheapskates" as they were called in your thread for not buying tickets in every drawings or do they just better understand the odds against a jackpot being won and wait until the percentages favor a winner?"

             Yes,  they are cheapskates!

            I suppose that there's nothing wrong with being a cheapskate, if that is the type of person you want to be.  Just admit it. No need to justify. 

            There is no need to insult others by either implying that they are stupid or, that you are intellectually superior when neither is true.

             

             

             

             

            The odds against I mentioned are the only 11 drawings producing a jackpot winner out of the 104 PB drawings in 2015. This means only 10.57% of all the drawings in 2015 produced jackpot winners.

            Some people say "you can't win if you don't play" which is true, but the results show there were 93 drawings in 2015 and 35 drawings so far in 2016 with no jackpot winning tickets. I don't think it's an insult for the jackpot chasers to say "do the math" or see anything intelligent about calling them "cheapskates" for not spending at least $256 on 128 drawings where nobody won a jackpot.

            Don't get me started on the fact 96% of all the $2 PB tickets bought for the drawing tonight will win absolutely nothing.

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              NY
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              Posted: May 7, 2016, 8:14 pm - IP Logged

              "My chances of winning depend only on how many tickets I buy. 1,2, or 102 tickets give me the exact same chance of winning whether 200 million other tickets are sold or I'm the only one that bought any tickets.

              The number of tickets you purchase only contribute to the total wagers. Did you miss where I said "the odds of a jackpot being won" are a ratio of all wagers in one drawing compared to the number of possible outcomes?

              As more tickets are sold there's an increased chance that the jackpot will be split, but that only kicks in when sales are quite high."

              If 100 million tickets are sold for tonight's drawing there is still at least a 64% chance nobody will win the jackpot. Every time two tickets are sold with the same five numbers and the same bonus number, there is a chance of a split, but with over 192 million combinations not sold, why are you suggesting a split?

              "The cash payout was roughly 3.6 times as big as the current cash value, but the winners only got about 1.2 times what a winner would probably get if they win tomorrow night. "

              The current cash value is $269.7 million and about 2.14 times smaller than the $577 million each of the three winning tickets get. The only affect the cash value or payments is the obvious; higher jackpots create higher ticket sales and when more tickets are sold the chances of the jackpot being won are higher.

              My point is about the odds against the jackpot being one and not about your or my chance of winning it. Do you agree that a drawing with 150 million in ticket sales has a much better chance of the jackpot being won than a drawing with 15 million in ticket sales?

              "The current cash value is $269.7 million and about 2.14 times smaller than the $577 million each of the three winning tickets get."

              $577 million is the imaginary amount they would have gotten by taking the annuity and waiting 29 years for it to trickle in. The two winners that have come forward (like the vast majority of winners before them) chose the cash value and got just under $328 million.

              "The only affect the cash value or payments is the obvious; higher jackpots create higher ticket sales and when more tickets are sold the chances of the jackpot being won are higher."

              Call me silly, but I think an important affect of bigger jackpots is that jackpot winners usually get more money than if they had won a smaller jackpot. Not knowing that would certainly explain thinking it makes the same sense to play when it's $40 million as it does when it's $400 million.

              "a drawing with 150 million in ticket sales has a much better chance of the jackpot being won than a drawing with 15 million in ticket sales"

              Obviously, but so what? Why would the chance that the jackpot will be won have any relevance to whether or not I should play?

                Funtimz's avatar - Lottery-022.jpg

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                Posted: May 8, 2016, 7:22 am - IP Logged

                It seems there has been a winning ticket (or two or so) for that jackpot.

                Take Risks: If you win, you'll be happy.  If you lose, you will be wiser...

                  Slick Nick's avatar - Lottery-035.jpg
                  Rochester
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                  Posted: May 8, 2016, 8:16 am - IP Logged

                  Yes I play regardless of the jackpot size. And I'd be just as content with 10 million , as I would  with 100 million. LOL

                  Money is a terrible master, but a great servant...Smile

                    ArizonaDream's avatar - Lottery-009.jpg

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                    Posted: May 8, 2016, 9:56 am - IP Logged

                    "or do they just better understand the odds against a jackpot being won and wait until the percentages favor a winner?"

                    Anyone who waits to play just based on the probability of the jackpot being won either doesn't understand probability or isn't very good at thinking.

                    My chances of winning depend only on how many tickets I buy. 1,2, or 102 tickets give me the exact same chance of winning whether 200 million other tickets are sold or I'm the only one that bought any tickets. As more tickets are sold there's an increased chance that the jackpot will be split, but that only kicks in when sales are quite high. The PB record is a good example.  The cash payout was roughly 3.6 times as big as the current cash value, but the winners only got about 1.2 times what a winner would probably get if they win tomorrow night.

                    The sensible reason to wait until the jackpot gets big is that for the same probability and cost you get a chance of winning more money. Right now it's a bit over 10 times as much money.

                    The only good reason I can think of to play for the smaller jackpot is to build bigger jackpots for those who are waiting. You've got the same chance of winning whether you spend $20 on 10 consecutive drawings or on only the 10th drawing, and the 10th will offer a much bigger jackpot.

                    Waiting for the odds to favor having a winner, may be a good strategy because that's the point where the jackpot is likely to top out.  If you only want to spend $50 a year  on PB tickets, may as well try to target the 25 highest PB jackpots. Or aim to take 2 tickets on the 12 highest.

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                      NY
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                      Posted: May 8, 2016, 12:28 pm - IP Logged

                      Waiting for the odds to favor having a winner, may be a good strategy because that's the point where the jackpot is likely to top out.  If you only want to spend $50 a year  on PB tickets, may as well try to target the 25 highest PB jackpots. Or aim to take 2 tickets on the 12 highest.

                      I understand that reasoning, but I don't think that's what stack is thinking about. Maybe it's just how we're thinking about things. A bigger jackpot and an increased chance of a winner are related, but it's the bigger jackpot that makes playing more sensible not the increased chance of a winner. Ideally you'd bet it all on the biggest jackpot before it resets, but it's not that simple. Waiting and playing for a really huge  jackpot may sound like an ideal strategy, but there are two big problems with that strategy.

                      The first is that you'll never know ahead of time if there will be a winner so you can only make a guess at which jackpot is the biggest and offers your last chance before it resets to the starting value. That means that the practical choice is to start playing at a threshold that's somewhat arbitrary.

                      The second problem is that extremely few jackpots are won when the odds favor a winner. The vast majority of jackpots are won when the most likely result is a rollover (and most multiple winners happen when a single winner is more likely). Under the current PB matrix it takes sales of 202.5 million tickets before the chance of a winner reaches 50%. That has happened only twice, for the last two jackpots of the record run. I haven't looked at older matrices, but I think there's a good chance that the record M jackpot is the only other time that a winner was more likely than a rollover. Last night's jackpot had sales of about 78 million tickets and the chance of a winner was about 22%.

                      There's also a third, though more minor problem (which I mentioned previously). That's the increasing possibility of multiple winners. Last night's jackpot was a hair over 1/4 of January's record jackpot, but the winning ticket will result in a single cash prize that's about 85% of what a winning ticket for the record jackpot was worth.  Getting 1/3rd of  1 or 1.5 billion is a bit better than getting all of 300 or 500 million, but only by a bit. You obviously shouldn't stop playing if the jackpot gets past a billion, but you shouldn't keep increasing your ticket purchases indefinitely.

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                        Kentucky
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                        Posted: May 8, 2016, 1:19 pm - IP Logged

                        "The current cash value is $269.7 million and about 2.14 times smaller than the $577 million each of the three winning tickets get."

                        $577 million is the imaginary amount they would have gotten by taking the annuity and waiting 29 years for it to trickle in. The two winners that have come forward (like the vast majority of winners before them) chose the cash value and got just under $328 million.

                        "The only affect the cash value or payments is the obvious; higher jackpots create higher ticket sales and when more tickets are sold the chances of the jackpot being won are higher."

                        Call me silly, but I think an important affect of bigger jackpots is that jackpot winners usually get more money than if they had won a smaller jackpot. Not knowing that would certainly explain thinking it makes the same sense to play when it's $40 million as it does when it's $400 million.

                        "a drawing with 150 million in ticket sales has a much better chance of the jackpot being won than a drawing with 15 million in ticket sales"

                        Obviously, but so what? Why would the chance that the jackpot will be won have any relevance to whether or not I should play?

                        "Why would the chance that the jackpot will be won have any relevance to whether or not I should play?"

                        My remarks were about players being called "cheapskates" for not buying tickets for the approximately 11% of the drawings when the jackpot is not won.

                        But to answer your question, people don't have to justify their playing strategies unless they are questioned after saying their strategy is the best. I wasn't suggesting waiting until the jackpot reaches a certain amount before buying tickets is the best playing strategy, just pointing out that none of the 18 previous drawings had jackpot winners. 

                        Regardless in which drawing we purchase tickets, 96% of all the tickets purchased win nothing so any playing strategy is unlikely to overcome those odds. The 74 million tickets sold for last nights drawing were almost the same amount of tickets sold for the first six drawings in this run. It sure looks like lots of players wait to purchase tickets until the jackpot reaches what they believe is the "must win" level.

                        What's lost in the discussion is that on any given drawing players could purchase 635 million tickets and turn the starting $40 million jackpot into a jackpot close to $1 billion. Why don't they?

                          KinG666BLaZe's avatar - 0a8b35e0e00bea02881544e8fa633303
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                          Posted: May 8, 2016, 1:40 pm - IP Logged

                          Im new to the forum but after last night's win I've decided to use more of this website. It's crazy how I felt this morning. Seeing that all the local gas stations had set the prize in the window for powerball at 40 mill. I had to look twice but yea I play all draws. I would hate to have a set of numbers I normally play hit and I miss out because the prize was to low lol Luckily the megamill is sitting just over 43 mill after all taxes so that will keep me going. Its not the F* you Red Devil  money that last nights draw would have given a young kid like me but 43 mill is good too.

                            TheMeatman2005's avatar - lightening
                            Brooklyn, NY
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                            Posted: May 8, 2016, 2:59 pm - IP Logged

                            Im new to the forum but after last night's win I've decided to use more of this website. It's crazy how I felt this morning. Seeing that all the local gas stations had set the prize in the window for powerball at 40 mill. I had to look twice but yea I play all draws. I would hate to have a set of numbers I normally play hit and I miss out because the prize was to low lol Luckily the megamill is sitting just over 43 mill after all taxes so that will keep me going. Its not the F* you Red Devil  money that last nights draw would have given a young kid like me but 43 mill is good too.

                            First....welcome to Lottery Post

                            Second...Even if you lived in NYC where we have the highest percentage of taxes on lottery winnings, you would still end up with around 52% (after all taxes). So, since the cash value of the current Mega Millions jackpot is $98 mil, 52% of that would net around $51 mil

                            It's not a lot compared to the historic $1.5 bil jackpot, but it isn't chump change either.

                            I'll take it gladly! Lep

                            The Meatman

                            “The quickest way to double your money is to fold it in half and put it in your back pocket.” Will Rogers

                            Winning happens in a flash, Like A Bolt Of Lightning!  Patriot

                              Think's avatar - lightbulb
                              Marquette, MI
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                              Posted: May 8, 2016, 8:17 pm - IP Logged

                              I've been playing in 4 different decades now and the lotteries keep getting ungrateful and jacking up the odds.

                              Now I will only play Powerball if the jackpot gets up to $600 mil or $750 mil because of the new prize matrix and odds.

                              If the odds were way better I'd probably start playing at $65 mil or $80 mil.  I used to kick into Mega Mil at 65 to 80 but since they changed their

                              matrix I now wait until it hits $120 mil.

                              As far as the other Michigan games I look at what the prize level has to be for me to quit the Raffles, Club games and everything except the $5 and $10 Cash for life scratchers and the $30 scratchers and the multistate draw games.

                              That would be $2.6 Million on the Classic 47 and I would only play those 3 scratchers and the 3 Multi-State games (MM, LFL, and PB) and possibly any new games depending on Jackpot and odds.

                              If I hit $5 mil on the MM second prize I would only play MM, PB, and any interesting new games.

                              If I hit a big enough jackpot I would quit except for maybe buying whole packs of scratchers for gifts or tips.