Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited December 8, 2016, 8:49 pm
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

theory test

Topic closed. 9 replies. Last post 9 months ago by woody4591.

Page 1 of 1
PrintE-mailLink
woody4591's avatar - woodywoodpecker
Morristown, NJ
United States
Member #172032
January 14, 2016
57 Posts
Offline
Posted: March 5, 2016, 10:48 pm - IP Logged

how many years is good when back testing a system?

    Tialuvslotto's avatar - Jailin
    Texas
    United States
    Member #150797
    December 31, 2013
    815 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: March 6, 2016, 7:24 am - IP Logged

    Combined or separate data?  How often do you expect a hit?

    If combined, I would shoot for a year -- this might be tedious if you don't have it automated.

    If separated into Midday, Evening draws I would shoot for 2 years.

    If you are just looking from one draw to the next you could probably get a good indication with 1 month (combined) or 2 months (separate)

    "There is no such thing as luck; only adequate or inadequate preparation to cope with a statistical universe."

    ~Robert A. Heinlein

      woody4591's avatar - woodywoodpecker
      Morristown, NJ
      United States
      Member #172032
      January 14, 2016
      57 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: March 6, 2016, 9:30 am - IP Logged

      Thanks for your input. I've researched from 2010 just to be safe. I now have the information I want. Now the hard part is sifting through it, to make sure it is profitable. I've seen and read a lot of ideas on LP since I've been a member, but most require many many combinations in order to get a hit. I've come across your replies many times and must say you seem to know your stuff. 

      Not quite ready to post anything yet tho. It has something to due with pick-4 doubles drawn on the first day of the month. I'll be more than happy to hear your feedback once I go over my findings more thoroughly.

      Question? Do you personally play multiple combinations looking for consistent hits or play numbers multiple times for better payoffs when they due come?

      For me, I would rather play one pick-4 10x boxed than try to hit 10 different boxes to reap the same reward. And I never play pick-4 straight because in the last 15 years maybe one number would have come out straight had I played it that way. In New Jersey there are nearly 1700 pick-4's that have never been drawn so hitting one is not easy. in fact, on average, there are maybe 8  never before numbers a month drawn which by my calculations means at least 17 more years to go before 6061 may come out straight.

        Avatar
        Kentucky
        United States
        Member #32652
        February 14, 2006
        7314 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: March 6, 2016, 9:34 am - IP Logged

        how many years is good when back testing a system?

        It really depends on the type of game and of course what type of data is collected. 

        How much history for a pick-3 game might include how long it takes for every straight combo to be drawn, but that could take over 10,000 drawings. By using digits, the time is much shorter. With 75 numbers and almost 18.5 million combinations, there won't be enough drawings to even a sample. It takes 15 drawings before it's possible for every number to be drawn so it's reasonable to use a history that includes each of the 75 numbers being drawn.

        IMO, what was drawn has no effect on what will be drawn so other than seeing which numbers/digits out preformed or under preformed probability for any period of time, why is the history necessary?

          butch2030's avatar - DiscoBallGlowing
          The KEY ingredient is Combos & Patterns
          Elgin, IL
          United States
          Member #68867
          January 1, 2009
          1221 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: March 6, 2016, 12:35 pm - IP Logged

          For the IL pick4 game - Midday & Evening - I went back to 01/01/2011 & I am updating my file weekly.  Each state will have different results.

          I am only doing Illinois as I am living there at the present time.  As of yesterday, there have been 3,782 combined drawings (Midday & Evening).

          Here are Straight numbers to play in IL that have hit more than 3x.

          MY NumbersGRP
          2011-01-22M912737
          2014-06-13E912737
          2014-07-06M912737
          2015-11-26E912737
          MY NumbersGRP
          2011-04-14E6710166
          2012-04-16E6710166
          2014-02-26E6710166
          2016-01-11E6710166
          MY NumbersGRP
          2013-05-14M4908351
          2014-03-10E4908351
          2014-05-01E4908351
          2015-07-06M4908351
          MY NumbersGRP
          2011-03-13E4394118
          2011-08-20M4394118
          2011-11-19E4394118
          2015-01-15M4394118
          2015-06-27M4394118
          MY NumbersGRP
          2012-04-25M7475429
          2013-03-21M7475429
          2013-12-24E7475429
          2015-08-03E7475429
          MY NumbersGRP
          2011-11-22E1162364
          2012-10-02M1162364
          2013-02-08E1162364
          2016-03-05M1162364

          For numbers that hit boxed, the highest number I found  was with 17 drawings.  Here are 6 GRPS (groups) which are the top ranking with 17 & 16 Hits each boxed for the State of IL.  NJ might & probably will have their own set of numbers.  I am showing this to let you know anything is possible if you put your mind to it.

          DATE  #1#2#3#417 hits
          2013-05-21M278963
          2011-05-08E279863
          2014-12-04E287963
          2011-11-07M289763
          2014-10-15M289763
          2011-05-27E297863
          2013-05-20M297863
          2012-02-06E298763
          2013-11-29E782963
          2011-02-06E798263
          2016-01-23E827963
          2014-04-08E829763
          2013-04-28M892763
          2011-10-13E927863
          2012-06-15E927863
          2015-06-22M927863
          2014-07-04M972863
                17 hits
          2013-02-19E046896
          2014-12-17M064896
          2012-01-31M086496
          2012-11-16M086496
          2015-06-06E086496
          2013-10-13M408696
          2015-07-29M408696
          2014-11-03M460896
          2011-02-24E468096
          2015-04-26E480696
          2011-09-08M486096
          2015-11-16M486096
          2015-01-04M604896
          2013-03-23E648096
          2014-06-05M648096
          2015-10-11M840696
          2011-05-08M860496
                17 hits
          2012-12-17E4567183
          2015-07-09M4657183
          2012-06-01M4675183
          2014-10-17M4765183
          2011-05-07M5467183
          2013-08-31M5467183
          2014-04-28E5647183
          2013-08-23E5674183
          2015-07-11M5746183
          2016-01-25E5764183
          2013-09-05M6457183
          2015-11-30M6457183
          2014-11-24E6475183
          2011-05-30E6754183
          2015-12-22M6754183
          2014-07-27E7645183
          2015-08-29E7654183
                16 hits
          2011-06-08M013492
          2012-09-01M013492
          2014-10-13E013492
          2013-09-22M031492
          2012-09-27M034192
          2016-01-25M043192
          2015-09-10E103492
          2013-06-09E130492
          2011-02-22E134092
          2015-02-19E134092
          2015-10-19E314092
          2012-05-07M410392
          2012-05-10M413092
          2013-06-14M413092
          2011-03-16E431092
          2015-12-01M431092
                16 hits
          2011-09-13E1689160
          2012-04-12M1689160
          2015-01-02M1689160
          2011-08-01M1896160
          2015-02-20E6189160
          2015-10-25M6189160
          2014-06-17E6819160
          2012-08-04E6891160
          2012-11-13E6891160
          2014-12-21M6891160
          2012-05-24E6918160
          2011-04-10E6981160
          2013-12-19E6981160
          2013-05-24E8169160
          2014-12-10E9186160
          2012-08-19M9618160
                16 hits
          2012-07-10M1238320
          2014-10-05E1382320
          2013-09-05E1823320
          2015-01-29E1823320
          2015-12-14E1823320
          2011-09-13M2318320
          2016-01-06E2318320
          2014-05-05E2381320
          2016-02-13M2381320
          2012-11-14M3128320
          2013-11-18M3128320
          2013-12-17E3128320
          2015-02-09M3182320
          2014-08-09E3281320
          2012-09-10M3812320
          2012-09-29M8123320
            Avatar
            South Carolina
            United States
            Member #18322
            July 9, 2005
            1706 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: March 6, 2016, 3:27 pm - IP Logged

            how many years is good when back testing a system?

            For Pick 4 - 3 months is sufficient - 6 months maximum. In my opinion, unless your Pick 4 system is based on very complicated calculations, it really is Not necessary to back test from ancient history.

              grwurston's avatar - Cute animals_Spider.jpg
              Winning makes me smile.
              bel air maryland
              United States
              Member #90251
              April 24, 2010
              4874 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: March 6, 2016, 5:03 pm - IP Logged

              For Pick 4 - 3 months is sufficient - 6 months maximum. In my opinion, unless your Pick 4 system is based on very complicated calculations, it really is Not necessary to back test from ancient history.

              I usually go 6 months to a year. But I feel the longer the better, only because with the longer history it gives you a much better chance to observe how your particular game works (behaves) over time.

              Also try tracking the same thing different ways, mid-mid, eve-eve, and combined. You may notice something on the combined draws that you wouldn't notice on separate draws for example.

              Anything you can think of can be tracked, so use your imagination.  Don't just step out of the box, crush it.

              "You can observe a lot just by watching." Yogi Berra, Hall of Fame baseball player.

              The numbers will tell you what numbers to play. Pay attention to the numbers.

              Don't just think outside the box, crush it.

                Tialuvslotto's avatar - Jailin
                Texas
                United States
                Member #150797
                December 31, 2013
                815 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: March 7, 2016, 7:48 am - IP Logged

                I usually go 6 months to a year. But I feel the longer the better, only because with the longer history it gives you a much better chance to observe how your particular game works (behaves) over time.

                Also try tracking the same thing different ways, mid-mid, eve-eve, and combined. You may notice something on the combined draws that you wouldn't notice on separate draws for example.

                Anything you can think of can be tracked, so use your imagination.  Don't just step out of the box, crush it.

                I prefer a longer back-test to see how the system performs under all types of conditions.  We know that the game can be streaky.  So, what happens when your system suddenly gets hot?  What happens when the system goes cold?  Do they balance each other out, or do you still profit?  How can you maximize the impact of the first and minimize the impact of the second?

                And, Stack, you are right:  Those numbers won't be drawn in that order again.  But numbers that are awfully similar will be.  Same balance of E/O, H/L, Doubles, Trips, etc. etc.

                "There is no such thing as luck; only adequate or inadequate preparation to cope with a statistical universe."

                ~Robert A. Heinlein

                  Avatar
                  Madison, WI
                  United States
                  Member #172977
                  February 11, 2016
                  515 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: March 7, 2016, 11:28 am - IP Logged

                  Thanks for your input. I've researched from 2010 just to be safe. I now have the information I want. Now the hard part is sifting through it, to make sure it is profitable. I've seen and read a lot of ideas on LP since I've been a member, but most require many many combinations in order to get a hit. I've come across your replies many times and must say you seem to know your stuff. 

                  Not quite ready to post anything yet tho. It has something to due with pick-4 doubles drawn on the first day of the month. I'll be more than happy to hear your feedback once I go over my findings more thoroughly.

                  Question? Do you personally play multiple combinations looking for consistent hits or play numbers multiple times for better payoffs when they due come?

                  For me, I would rather play one pick-4 10x boxed than try to hit 10 different boxes to reap the same reward. And I never play pick-4 straight because in the last 15 years maybe one number would have come out straight had I played it that way. In New Jersey there are nearly 1700 pick-4's that have never been drawn so hitting one is not easy. in fact, on average, there are maybe 8  never before numbers a month drawn which by my calculations means at least 17 more years to go before 6061 may come out straight.

                  If you are testing something that is based on a condition that only happens once a month,  like the first day of the month, then you probably should go back much further. 5-10 years maybe?

                    woody4591's avatar - woodywoodpecker
                    Morristown, NJ
                    United States
                    Member #172032
                    January 14, 2016
                    57 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: March 18, 2016, 2:18 pm - IP Logged

                    Thank you all for your feedback. My searches have taken me back to 2002 when NJ went to twice a day draws. Unable to use March as starting point however. Hopefully April and May will give me a chance to test my theory. Feedback will be posted in June...

                     

                    Luck  to all!