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Are you sure the system does not work?

Topic closed. 14 replies. Last post 5 months ago by RJOh.

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Lincoln, California
United States
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June 27, 2015
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Posted: June 17, 2016, 11:51 am - IP Logged

I have been working on a process that uses very large data blocks in hopes of finding winners in categories of various filters, whose history I can track.  My Idea was to Run 10-12 Scenarios (Filter Combinations) for Pick 3.  Combining 2 filters per Position produces 64 Combinations of those filters.  That means there are 640 Lines of combinations to choose from.  The Winning Combination is in Each Group of 64.  I have been running back tests to look at each group trying to predict the Winning Combination in each Group. 

Most of you think I am wasting my time and are probably right.  For example, my Run for today selected 31 Lines out of 640.  Those lines contained 766 of the 1000 Triads possible.  It is a lot of work (for Excel) to select these lines based on several ranking systems I am experimenting with.  Success is Terrible.  Most games there are no hits.  Once in a while there is 1 Line that hits and I have only seen 2 lines hit a few times in over 1200 game back tests.. 

It sure looks like the system does not work.  It just can’t seem to pick the winner so what good is it.  Well Right now it is pretty good at finding 75% of the Triads that don’t win.  I next will start to look at the 25% Triads that Won in those Tests.

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    Lincoln, California
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    June 27, 2015
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    Posted: June 17, 2016, 12:51 pm - IP Logged

    Daryl,  I agree with your Ranking.  It sounds like I am just saying "Look at Me".  I should have ended with this Question.

    Anyone gone down this Road before?  Anyone give up on a process without looking at the "Other Side"?

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      backwoods ga
      United States
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      May 31, 2014
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      Posted: June 17, 2016, 1:19 pm - IP Logged

      I read it all with an open mind.  I just think it should be in discussion. Not system.  For luck 

      my name Lil Darryl   you got some Milk

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        Lincoln, California
        United States
        Member #167130
        June 27, 2015
        256 Posts
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        Posted: June 17, 2016, 1:27 pm - IP Logged

        I get confused about the Where here on LP.  Seemed Like a System Question to me.  I get that by custom this is Where specifics are discussed not general ideas.  Todd will move it if it is in the Wrong Forum. 

        Thanks

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          South Carolina
          United States
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          July 9, 2005
          1707 Posts
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          Posted: June 17, 2016, 2:47 pm - IP Logged

          I have been working on a process that uses very large data blocks in hopes of finding winners in categories of various filters, whose history I can track.  My Idea was to Run 10-12 Scenarios (Filter Combinations) for Pick 3.  Combining 2 filters per Position produces 64 Combinations of those filters.  That means there are 640 Lines of combinations to choose from.  The Winning Combination is in Each Group of 64.  I have been running back tests to look at each group trying to predict the Winning Combination in each Group. 

          Most of you think I am wasting my time and are probably right.  For example, my Run for today selected 31 Lines out of 640.  Those lines contained 766 of the 1000 Triads possible.  It is a lot of work (for Excel) to select these lines based on several ranking systems I am experimenting with.  Success is Terrible.  Most games there are no hits.  Once in a while there is 1 Line that hits and I have only seen 2 lines hit a few times in over 1200 game back tests.. 

          It sure looks like the system does not work.  It just can’t seem to pick the winner so what good is it.  Well Right now it is pretty good at finding 75% of the Triads that don’t win.  I next will start to look at the 25% Triads that Won in those Tests.

          You sound like you are starting from the position of Randomness, and going through a lot of headache for Pick 3Pick 3 isn't worth all of this anxietyPick 4 pays more $$$ !!! However, for both Pick 3/4 , you are complicating the SIMPLE !!! Just choose an easy Pick 3 system  to work with, and figure out your wagering strategy to maximize your profitsLotto Laughs "Patience is a Virtue" system is one of my favorite simple pair systems, b/c it works well in the state of South Carolina.

           

          https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/190963 > > >Patience is a Virtue System from  March 20, 2009

           

          P.S. TODD:

          When I typed in "Patience is a Virtue" in "Search for Something", Date Range: "All History", and Forum: "Lottery System" >>> for some reason, the database DID NOT search back to 2009. It stopped searching at July 25, 2010.  I had to go into Lotto Laughs Profile under her "Favorites" to find this post under her "Favorite Forum Posts" :

          https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/263687

           

           

          Why didn't the database search back to 2009 for "All History" ???

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            Lincoln, California
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            June 27, 2015
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            Posted: June 17, 2016, 3:25 pm - IP Logged

            You sound like you are starting from the position of Randomness, and going through a lot of headache for Pick 3Pick 3 isn't worth all of this anxietyPick 4 pays more $$$ !!! However, for both Pick 3/4 , you are complicating the SIMPLE !!! Just choose an easy Pick 3 system  to work with, and figure out your wagering strategy to maximize your profitsLotto Laughs "Patience is a Virtue" system is one of my favorite simple pair systems, b/c it works well in the state of South Carolina.

             

            https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/190963 > > >Patience is a Virtue System from  March 20, 2009

             

            P.S. TODD:

            When I typed in "Patience is a Virtue" in "Search for Something", Date Range: "All History", and Forum: "Lottery System" >>> for some reason, the database DID NOT search back to 2009. It stopped searching at July 25, 2010.  I had to go into Lotto Laughs Profile under her "Favorites" to find this post under her "Favorite Forum Posts" :

            https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/263687

             

             

            Why didn't the database search back to 2009 for "All History" ???

            Yeah, I can't help it, That's Just Me.  I always have to Start from Scratch.  It is my Learning Process.  I know it sounds complicated; but, What I am Doing is really Basic.  It is just a Variation of Divide and Concur, which is the Path I am on right now.  In the End, If I hit some Straights, I will continue.  If Not, I will contemplate another Path.

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              Lincoln, California
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              Posted: June 17, 2016, 3:29 pm - IP Logged

              By the way,  I am also doing the same with Pick 4.  The Options are 4 times those of Pick 3 so the data Blocks are huge.

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                backwoods ga
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                Posted: June 17, 2016, 3:50 pm - IP Logged

                divide and conquer.  Is the way to go. 

                Patience and a bankroll

                my name Lil Darryl   you got some Milk

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                  Lincoln, California
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                  Posted: June 17, 2016, 4:00 pm - IP Logged

                  divide and conquer.  Is the way to go. 

                  Patience and a bankroll

                  Been Doing 1,  Don't have much of 2 or 3

                    Sunglasses's avatar - nicebear
                    Zaperlopopotam
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                    Posted: June 17, 2016, 4:42 pm - IP Logged

                    I read it all with an open mind.  I just think it should be in discussion. Not system.  For luck 

                    For luck?

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                      Posted: June 18, 2016, 12:16 am - IP Logged

                      You sound like you are starting from the position of Randomness, and going through a lot of headache for Pick 3Pick 3 isn't worth all of this anxietyPick 4 pays more $$$ !!! However, for both Pick 3/4 , you are complicating the SIMPLE !!! Just choose an easy Pick 3 system  to work with, and figure out your wagering strategy to maximize your profitsLotto Laughs "Patience is a Virtue" system is one of my favorite simple pair systems, b/c it works well in the state of South Carolina.

                       

                      https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/190963 > > >Patience is a Virtue System from  March 20, 2009

                       

                      P.S. TODD:

                      When I typed in "Patience is a Virtue" in "Search for Something", Date Range: "All History", and Forum: "Lottery System" >>> for some reason, the database DID NOT search back to 2009. It stopped searching at July 25, 2010.  I had to go into Lotto Laughs Profile under her "Favorites" to find this post under her "Favorite Forum Posts" :

                      https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/263687

                       

                       

                      Why didn't the database search back to 2009 for "All History" ???

                      I Agree!

                      Find a system you can understand, get really good at it, and use it to "trap". You'll know when it feels right to double up or triple up on a combo or combo's. And when..........to watch.

                      What you are doing has all been done before. 

                       Rock Chalk Jayhawk

                        bobby623's avatar - abstract
                        San Angelo, Texas
                        United States
                        Member #1097
                        January 31, 2003
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                        Posted: June 18, 2016, 10:47 am - IP Logged

                        I have been working on a process that uses very large data blocks in hopes of finding winners in categories of various filters, whose history I can track.  My Idea was to Run 10-12 Scenarios (Filter Combinations) for Pick 3.  Combining 2 filters per Position produces 64 Combinations of those filters.  That means there are 640 Lines of combinations to choose from.  The Winning Combination is in Each Group of 64.  I have been running back tests to look at each group trying to predict the Winning Combination in each Group. 

                        Most of you think I am wasting my time and are probably right.  For example, my Run for today selected 31 Lines out of 640.  Those lines contained 766 of the 1000 Triads possible.  It is a lot of work (for Excel) to select these lines based on several ranking systems I am experimenting with.  Success is Terrible.  Most games there are no hits.  Once in a while there is 1 Line that hits and I have only seen 2 lines hit a few times in over 1200 game back tests.. 

                        It sure looks like the system does not work.  It just can’t seem to pick the winner so what good is it.  Well Right now it is pretty good at finding 75% of the Triads that don’t win.  I next will start to look at the 25% Triads that Won in those Tests.

                        I'll be blunt.
                        Why are you wasting time and energy on a method that won't help you win a dime????
                        The most important question in lottery analysis is - WHAT'S NEXT??
                        The answer(s) are found in trend data having clues, or triggers, or whatever, that point to 'best answers' from a large field of possibilities.
                        For example, if 248 was the last winning combination, what hard data do you have that makes you think that '942' is next???
                        Very little or a whole lot, like maybe 100 possibilities.
                        So, you spend $100, or $50 to cover all the bases.
                        Wham, the one triad that you didn't look at is the winner!!!
                        Unfortunately, the triad method is a loser because there just isn't enough repetition to build useful trend charts.
                        Ok, you could win by combination of chance and luck, but, it isn't worth it - in my humble opinion, of course.
                        Now, there are folks who claim they are winning lots of money, MonEl for one, by using certain filters that separate the triads into winners and losers,
                        but there isn't much hard evidence to suggest that the method is profitable.
                        You asked the question, I've given you an answer, which is, try something else!!

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                          Lincoln, California
                          United States
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                          June 27, 2015
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                          Posted: June 18, 2016, 3:58 pm - IP Logged

                          I'll be blunt.
                          Why are you wasting time and energy on a method that won't help you win a dime????
                          The most important question in lottery analysis is - WHAT'S NEXT??
                          The answer(s) are found in trend data having clues, or triggers, or whatever, that point to 'best answers' from a large field of possibilities.
                          For example, if 248 was the last winning combination, what hard data do you have that makes you think that '942' is next???
                          Very little or a whole lot, like maybe 100 possibilities.
                          So, you spend $100, or $50 to cover all the bases.
                          Wham, the one triad that you didn't look at is the winner!!!
                          Unfortunately, the triad method is a loser because there just isn't enough repetition to build useful trend charts.
                          Ok, you could win by combination of chance and luck, but, it isn't worth it - in my humble opinion, of course.
                          Now, there are folks who claim they are winning lots of money, MonEl for one, by using certain filters that separate the triads into winners and losers,
                          but there isn't much hard evidence to suggest that the method is profitable.
                          You asked the question, I've given you an answer, which is, try something else!!

                          I appreciate the advice; but, for me it is premature.  You assume that my process lacks valuable Trend Data.  Your conclusions are understandable since I have not been specific about the process.  I have a New Trend.  I have not found this idea used before in a search of LP Forums or Google for that matter.    In the process of trying to predict the "Next", I created a scenario that Ranked the next option using the FART Filter posted by ithastobesaid.  The process was not able to predict the next triad but it seemed to weed out about 75% of the Triads on a consistent basis. 

                          My point with this Post was to suggest that sometimes that before giving up on a selection (prediction) process, one should look at it's value as an eliminator.

                            aquariuslottery's avatar - AquariusLotteryLogo
                            Vancouver BC
                            Canada
                            Member #96078
                            August 22, 2010
                            110 Posts
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                            Posted: June 25, 2016, 2:46 am - IP Logged

                            I have been working on a process that uses very large data blocks in hopes of finding winners in categories of various filters, whose history I can track.  My Idea was to Run 10-12 Scenarios (Filter Combinations) for Pick 3.  Combining 2 filters per Position produces 64 Combinations of those filters.  That means there are 640 Lines of combinations to choose from.  The Winning Combination is in Each Group of 64.  I have been running back tests to look at each group trying to predict the Winning Combination in each Group. 

                            Most of you think I am wasting my time and are probably right.  For example, my Run for today selected 31 Lines out of 640.  Those lines contained 766 of the 1000 Triads possible.  It is a lot of work (for Excel) to select these lines based on several ranking systems I am experimenting with.  Success is Terrible.  Most games there are no hits.  Once in a while there is 1 Line that hits and I have only seen 2 lines hit a few times in over 1200 game back tests.. 

                            It sure looks like the system does not work.  It just can’t seem to pick the winner so what good is it.  Well Right now it is pretty good at finding 75% of the Triads that don’t win.  I next will start to look at the 25% Triads that Won in those Tests.

                            I question for thought:

                            What is easier to predict (and more cost effective): numbers out of 10 or triads out of 1000?

                            I never bother with predicting triads, just too many combinations and not sufficient repetitions to make meaningful predictions.

                            Pick 5 out of 10 and wheel them at your convenience. Use your favorite prediction method (I usually opt for the latest hots as they have the best scoring ratio - most of the time):

                            Straight singles or doubles - 60 bets.

                            Box singles: 10 bets

                            Box doubles: 20 bets.

                            And why wheel only 5 out of 10? My sims indicate the best ROI comes with 7 or 8 out of 10, playing box either singles or doubles. For singles the hit rate is about 40%, for doubles in the range of 70-90% (and that's a clear indication why you should always hunt doubles if the conditions appear favourable, i.e. no doubles drawn in a long time).

                            I always subscribed to the KISS method of doing things, including lotteries. For me complicating matters usually results in a greater difficulty in understanding what's going on. And if you play for real money this may lead to unnecessary waste.

                            ......

                              RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                              mid-Ohio
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                              Posted: July 7, 2016, 3:39 pm - IP Logged

                              The results speak for themselves. Party

                               * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                                 
                                           Evil Looking