Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited December 3, 2016, 4:44 pm
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

Challenge Odds ?

Topic closed. 12 replies. Last post 2 months ago by ArizonaDream.

Page 1 of 1
51
PrintE-mailLink
Avatar

United States
Member #169365
October 13, 2015
135 Posts
Offline
Posted: September 3, 2016, 8:10 pm - IP Logged

For the math gurus:

What are the odds broken down to for successfully picking 5+1 on the challenge?

Secondly, then successfully stringing those into a single line play that could be an actual JP hit?

For the sake of these questions, let's use MM challenge which is roughly 20% picked. Do the odds break down to 20% of the 1:258M overall odds. I'm not sure why, but I think the odds are the same for both questions?

Though I don't participate, I do follow those posts regularly. I'm surprised there aren't more hits, but equally surprised by the 'good calls'.

 

I really do appreciate your efforts, Maddog, as well as others that do the stats.

I wish people would use a standard format of font type, size and color. It would make your job easier and the thread easier to read (though maybe not as interesting), especially on mobile devices. It'd be cool if there was a 'LP playslip form' which could be filled out and submitted for posting.

 

Thanks in advance for any feedback.

    Avatar

    United States
    Member #169365
    October 13, 2015
    135 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: September 3, 2016, 8:15 pm - IP Logged

    After very little thought, it would 80/20?  LOL. I suck at math.

      wander73's avatar - Lottery-038.jpg
      Philadelphia, PA
      United States
      Member #153774
      March 24, 2014
      852 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: September 3, 2016, 11:10 pm - IP Logged

      I am not good with math.  However given the other site and many members i might have found a way.

        ressuccess's avatar - Lottery-043.jpg

        United States
        Member #93164
        June 23, 2010
        1313 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: September 4, 2016, 5:42 pm - IP Logged

        I was going to be a math major, but an accident in 2007 cost me a chance to become a teacher. I suck at making my picks.

        I hope that one $2 ticket is the only one that matches all 5 numbers plus the Powerball to win the largest Powerball Jackpot in United States history of over $2 Billion Dollars!

          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
          mid-Ohio
          United States
          Member #9
          March 24, 2001
          19816 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: September 4, 2016, 7:00 pm - IP Logged

          For the math gurus:

          What are the odds broken down to for successfully picking 5+1 on the challenge?

          Secondly, then successfully stringing those into a single line play that could be an actual JP hit?

          For the sake of these questions, let's use MM challenge which is roughly 20% picked. Do the odds break down to 20% of the 1:258M overall odds. I'm not sure why, but I think the odds are the same for both questions?

          Though I don't participate, I do follow those posts regularly. I'm surprised there aren't more hits, but equally surprised by the 'good calls'.

           

          I really do appreciate your efforts, Maddog, as well as others that do the stats.

          I wish people would use a standard format of font type, size and color. It would make your job easier and the thread easier to read (though maybe not as interesting), especially on mobile devices. It'd be cool if there was a 'LP playslip form' which could be filled out and submitted for posting.

           

          Thanks in advance for any feedback.

          For the Maddogs' Powerball Challenge you can use 12 of the 69 core numbers and 4 of the 26 bonus number which means you will be covering a 5/12 + 1/4 wheel which covers 3168 of the possible 292,201,338 winning combinations.

          MATCH      ODDS
          5/5+B      1:92,235
          4/5+0      1:3,689
          4/5+B      1:288
          4/5+0      1:12
          3/5+B      1:5
          3/5+0      5:1
          2/5+B      5:1
          1/5+B      34:1
          0/5+B      83:1 
          overall odds 1:24.8

           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
             
                       Evil Looking       

            Avatar

            United States
            Member #169365
            October 13, 2015
            135 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: September 5, 2016, 12:42 am - IP Logged

            Thanks rjoh.

            Does that mean 1:3168 odds of putting together the correct JP combination if you have a 5+1 in the challenge?

            Can you do the odds for the MegaMillions, for comparison?

              wander73's avatar - Lottery-038.jpg
              Philadelphia, PA
              United States
              Member #153774
              March 24, 2014
              852 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: September 5, 2016, 9:06 am - IP Logged

              For the Maddogs' Powerball Challenge you can use 12 of the 69 core numbers and 4 of the 26 bonus number which means you will be covering a 5/12 + 1/4 wheel which covers 3168 of the possible 292,201,338 winning combinations.

              MATCH      ODDS
              5/5+B      1:92,235
              4/5+0      1:3,689
              4/5+B      1:288
              4/5+0      1:12
              3/5+B      1:5
              3/5+0      5:1
              2/5+B      5:1
              1/5+B      34:1
              0/5+B      83:1 
              overall odds 1:24.8

              I knew those odds.  I might have another way of figuring it out.  The last two challenges I only had like 2 numbers correct on each.  So let me look at what there is.  If I can pull off a 3-1, 4, 4-1, or 5 combo it is worth it.  Then again I only play $10 per week.

                RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                mid-Ohio
                United States
                Member #9
                March 24, 2001
                19816 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: September 5, 2016, 1:54 pm - IP Logged

                Thanks rjoh.

                Does that mean 1:3168 odds of putting together the correct JP combination if you have a 5+1 in the challenge?

                Can you do the odds for the MegaMillions, for comparison?

                No, it means what I posted.  If you cover 3,168 of the possible 292,201,338 PB combinations, your odds of matching 5/5+B are 292,201,338/3,168 or 1:92,235.

                Similarly in the MM challenge when you use 13 of the 75 core numbers with 3 of the 15 bonus numbers you will cover 3,861 of the possible 258,890,850 MM combinations and your odds of matching 5/5+B will be 258,890,850/3,861 or 1:67,053.

                You can calculates the odds for any amounts yourself by using one of the many free lottery odds calculators available on the Internet.

                 * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                   
                             Evil Looking       

                  Avatar

                  United States
                  Member #169365
                  October 13, 2015
                  135 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: September 5, 2016, 7:17 pm - IP Logged

                  Gotcha. Thanks for your help.

                  Interesting that the covered combos for both challenges have transposed numbers: 3168 and 3861

                    ressuccess's avatar - Lottery-043.jpg

                    United States
                    Member #93164
                    June 23, 2010
                    1313 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: September 10, 2016, 3:16 pm - IP Logged

                    For the Maddogs' Powerball Challenge you can use 12 of the 69 core numbers and 4 of the 26 bonus number which means you will be covering a 5/12 + 1/4 wheel which covers 3168 of the possible 292,201,338 winning combinations.

                    MATCH      ODDS
                    5/5+B      1:92,235
                    4/5+0      1:3,689
                    4/5+B      1:288
                    4/5+0      1:12
                    3/5+B      1:5
                    3/5+0      5:1
                    2/5+B      5:1
                    1/5+B      34:1
                    0/5+B      83:1 
                    overall odds 1:24.8

                    Wow, that's good challenging odds you got there RJOh. I was going to participate in MADDOG10's Mega Millions and Powerball challenges, but he'll delete my post so instead I'll challenge marcie one on one! What do you think about my comment?

                    I hope that one $2 ticket is the only one that matches all 5 numbers plus the Powerball to win the largest Powerball Jackpot in United States history of over $2 Billion Dollars!

                      ArizonaDream's avatar - Lottery-009.jpg

                      United States
                      Member #169277
                      October 10, 2015
                      630 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: October 9, 2016, 10:51 am - IP Logged

                      For the Maddogs' Powerball Challenge you can use 12 of the 69 core numbers and 4 of the 26 bonus number which means you will be covering a 5/12 + 1/4 wheel which covers 3168 of the possible 292,201,338 winning combinations.

                      MATCH      ODDS
                      5/5+B      1:92,235
                      4/5+0      1:3,689
                      4/5+B      1:288
                      4/5+0      1:12
                      3/5+B      1:5
                      3/5+0      5:1
                      2/5+B      5:1
                      1/5+B      34:1
                      0/5+B      83:1 
                      overall odds 1:24.8

                      Something doesn't seem right. 

                      If those odds are correct, we should be seeing more matches in the challenges than we actually get. 

                      With 20+ players on each draw, with those odds, we'd expect to see 1 or 2 4+0 matches each time.  But we don't. 

                      I tried the lottogenie calculator, and get 1 in 398 for matching 4, disregarding the PB.

                       

                      Right? Wrong?

                        ressuccess's avatar - Lottery-043.jpg

                        United States
                        Member #93164
                        June 23, 2010
                        1313 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: October 9, 2016, 5:16 pm - IP Logged

                        Something doesn't seem right. 

                        If those odds are correct, we should be seeing more matches in the challenges than we actually get. 

                        With 20+ players on each draw, with those odds, we'd expect to see 1 or 2 4+0 matches each time.  But we don't. 

                        I tried the lottogenie calculator, and get 1 in 398 for matching 4, disregarding the PB.

                         

                        Right? Wrong?

                        I think you're right on this one ArizonaDream. I have to challenge marcie one-on-one in his Mega Millions and Powerball Challenges because MADDOG10 will delete my post regardless if I post my numbers on MADDOG10's topic.

                        I hope that one $2 ticket is the only one that matches all 5 numbers plus the Powerball to win the largest Powerball Jackpot in United States history of over $2 Billion Dollars!

                          ArizonaDream's avatar - Lottery-009.jpg

                          United States
                          Member #169277
                          October 10, 2015
                          630 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: October 9, 2016, 5:37 pm - IP Logged

                          I think you're right on this one ArizonaDream. I have to challenge marcie one-on-one in his Mega Millions and Powerball Challenges because MADDOG10 will delete my post regardless if I post my numbers on MADDOG10's topic.

                          What does that have to do with the odds?

                           

                          I saw one of your later deleted posts. You posted 2x, 2 different sets of numbers. Most seem to understand that it's one entry per player.