Do Hot and Cold Numbers Matter?Prev Topic Next Topic

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Novan60

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Mar 8, 2017, 4:52 pm
The short answer is no. They stand the same basic chance of hitting as any other set of numbers.

Using the NY Pick 10 I use three different methods to look at what would be the results of 20 numbers in the next 100 drawing 1000 times. The three methods used to pick the 20 were:
- Hot and Cold from the last 50 drawings
- Using the winning numbers of the previous drawing
- Randomly picking 20 numbers
The results were basically the same regardless of the method used.

Hot/Cold

Previous Drawing

I ran it two more times using a different start drawing and the results were basically the same only in different orders.

What this is telling me is that no matter what system I use to isolate 20 numbers to pick my final combination of 10 from, that roughly 40% of the time, there are on average 2 drawings in the next 100 where any combination of 10 from that base will appear.

On those days my odds would be 1 in 184,756 which is a lot better than 1 in 8,911,711 if I'm willing to accept that I could conceptually go 2 or more years without having a chance to win playing 1 time a drawing. Playing 5 times per drawing would pretty much guarantee at least two opportunities to win per 100 drawings.

The problem from there is how to decide which 10 of the 20 to play. Even with a strategy that provided a 1 in 4 chance every 10 cycles that means I could potentially have to wait over 1,000 drawings before I won. still to spend 1000 dollars to stand a 1 in 4 chance of winning 500K seems like a pretty good investment. Of course going from 1 in 184,756 to 1 in 4 would be pretty incredible.
msmillionaire

Milwaukee
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Mar 8, 2017, 4:59 pm

no i think so because i run cold and hot together, the cold numbers were hitting alot..
Novan60

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Mar 8, 2017, 6:12 pm

Quote: Originally posted by msmillionaire on Mar 8, 2017
no i think so because i run cold and hot together, the cold numbers were hitting alot..

And that is entirely possible within a small sampling of time. You could have played 100 drawings where the cold numbers produced more winners, but the next 100 drawings could potentially produce little to no winners. Eventually all of these games normalize to their statistical probabilities.
Millioner man

woodland hills
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Mar 9, 2017, 12:15 am

fantasy5 winning numbers. 17, 22, 26, 15, 3! Really hot numbers!
BobP

Dump Water Florida
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Mar 9, 2017, 1:59 am

Hot, Cold and Average numbers matter if you want them to.

First of all you need to look at draws from the sessions between ballset changes.

If you take a completed ballset session usually about two years from start to finish date and compute the first half to rank the numbers from Hot through Average and to Cold and then look at the second half of the session you may well find the Hot numbers remained hot, the Average numbers remained average and the Cold numbers remained cold.

Next check how many of each appear in winning draws. You may well find the most common combination is Two Hot, Two Average and two Cold. The next most often will be various one up or down from 222.

This means you would be well advised to make sure most combinations to be played include some Hot, Average and Cold numbers. If you use a wheel, map the wheel so you place numbers to drop into the combinations in such a way as to include some of each.

The distribution of Hot, Average and Cold numbers matter as much as any other early filter you may choose to use to strip out a large quantity of combinations.

BobP
GiveFive

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Mar 9, 2017, 8:15 am

In New York's Take5 (a 5/39 matrix) the most frequently drawn (hottest) number in 2014, 2015 and 2016 was #17.

In Take5, the most frequently drawn number of the year typically has about 60 hits. (I've seen this happen every year since 2001 when Take5 drawings were first held 364 days per year) Here's how many hits #17 has had each year since 1/1/2014;

2014 - 59 hits and it was the most frequently drawn number.

2015 - 61 hits and it was the most frequently drawn number.

2016 - 59 hits and was the number one hitter. (#29 tied with #17 with 59 hits last year)

I've also noticed that if a number is going to have close to 60 hits by year end, by March 31st it will have approximately 15 hits, near 30 hits by June 30th, and close to 45 by Sept 30th. If not, then the number probably wont end the year as the number with the most hits. As of last night's Take5 drawing, #17 has 12 hits this year, and currently is the third most frequently drawn number behind #'s 11 and 12. (#11 currently has 15 hits and #12 has 13) So #17 appears to be on track to about 15 hits by March 31st. If it has 30 (or more) hits by 6/30/17, then I'd say it's got a very good shot at ending this year with 58, 59 or 60 hits. It might not be the most frequently drawn number of 2017, but it would be in the top two or three.

I wish I could explain why #17 has been the hottest Take5 number for three consecutive years, but I cant. I just know that's what happened. G5

Play Smart! That's IF there is such a thing as playing smartly!!
bobby623

San Angelo, Texas
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Mar 9, 2017, 12:43 pm

The main problem with Hot and Cold inventory questions, in my opinion, is that it's comparing apples with oranges.
Lottery drawings are individual events, which is to say that there is no demonstrable connection between each drawing.
There is no proof whatever, for example, that the results for Texas Morning Pick 3 drawing somehow govern the results for the
Night drawing.
Therefore, an overall inventory based on ALL drawings, which would be 4 in Texas, will provide no clues that can be used for the individual drawings.
I recently decided to build my data bases on the drawings that I play.
For example, I play Texas Cash 5 only on Monday. I keep stats for this particular drawing and ignore Tuesday through Saturday.
Surprising how the relationship between the H and C inventory totals change.
But, in my lottery workout world, which is based on trends, there is no place for any kind of H and C considerations.
Every official lottery has a list showing how often each integer in a game has arrived since the game was initiated.
The question becomes, for those who base their play decisions on some kind of mathematics, would playing only integers with the highest total be a winner, or should there be a mix?
Long ago, when I didn't know much about lottery games, I always went with the integers with the highest total, which was and still is a big mistake.
As for '17' in NY Take5 lottery.
I think it's just 'chance' without any significance.
GiveFive, Are you choosing 17 every time you play?? If not, what rule do you use that tells you when to play it?
I would wager that separate stats for each day of the week will produce different results.
rcbbuckeye

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Mar 9, 2017, 2:56 pm

Several years ago, I kept a running total of each number in Mega Millions, back when there were 56 and 46 in the matrix. I kept track of how often each number was drawn in each position. Then I would play numbers by position and also by how often they were drawn by position and overall times drawn also.

I finally realized this was worthless when dealing with astronomical odds. It might be useful with a P3 or P4 game. Maybe, maybe, with a P5 game with decent odds.

JUST LOOK AT THE ODDS OF ANY JACKPOT GAME, THAT WILL TELL YOU EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW
GiveFive

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Mar 9, 2017, 3:02 pm

GiveFive, Are you choosing 17 every time you play?? If not, what rule do you use that tells you when to play it?
I would wager that separate stats for each day of the week will produce different results.

Pretty much, although there are times when I deliberately don't play #17. I would guess that I play it on 95 to 98% of the lines I buy. I typically buy five or ten lines when I play Take5, (I don't play it every day) and some times I play it on all of my lines, and sometimes I only play it on a few of them. One reason why I might choose not to play it at all is because it repeated or double repeated. (It was drawn in three consecutive drawings immediately prior to the upcoming drawing)

As for the results I've obtained by playing it frequently, I wouldn't say they're great, but I wouldn't say they were bad either. While I don't track how often I've won $$$$ by playing #17, my guess is that I probably have a 3/5 win (which pays around twenty bucks) twelve times per year, or an average of once per month.

I took a quick look at Texas Cash 5, and in the 313 drawings held in 2015, #16 was the top hitter with 55 hits, and in 2016, #7 was the biggest hitter with 56. That's more like what I'd expect to see in NY's Take5. I don't know if #17 hitting the most times for three consecutive years is chance without significance or not, but it sure is weird! I would also point out that on the other end of the spectrum with Take5's lowest hitters of the year, I don't see the same number year after year. The least hitting number of the year changes every year. That seems normal to me. Why that hasn't happened on the other end with the big hitters of the year seems odd. IMHO it shouldn't happen, but it did. G5

Play Smart! That's IF there is such a thing as playing smartly!!
RJOh

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Mar 9, 2017, 7:58 pm

Quote: Originally posted by rcbbuckeye on Mar 9, 2017
Several years ago, I kept a running total of each number in Mega Millions, back when there were 56 and 46 in the matrix. I kept track of how often each number was drawn in each position. Then I would play numbers by position and also by how often they were drawn by position and overall times drawn also.

I finally realized this was worthless when dealing with astronomical odds. It might be useful with a P3 or P4 game. Maybe, maybe, with a P5 game with decent odds.

"I finally realized this was worthless when dealing with astronomical odds."

If winning was that easy even for a Pick3 game, the lottery would go broke. You probably had only a fraction of the information you needed for a successful winning strategy. I think you would need several parameters to separate the likely winners from the losers.

* you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones *
BobP

Dump Water Florida
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Mar 9, 2017, 8:08 pm

Quote: Originally posted by GiveFive on Mar 9, 2017
GiveFive, Are you choosing 17 every time you play?? If not, what rule do you use that tells you when to play it?
I would wager that separate stats for each day of the week will produce different results.

Pretty much, although there are times when I deliberately don't play #17. I would guess that I play it on 95 to 98% of the lines I buy. I typically buy five or ten lines when I play Take5, (I don't play it every day) and some times I play it on all of my lines, and sometimes I only play it on a few of them. One reason why I might choose not to play it at all is because it repeated or double repeated. (It was drawn in three consecutive drawings immediately prior to the upcoming drawing)

As for the results I've obtained by playing it frequently, I wouldn't say they're great, but I wouldn't say they were bad either. While I don't track how often I've won $$$$ by playing #17, my guess is that I probably have a 3/5 win (which pays around twenty bucks) twelve times per year, or an average of once per month.

I took a quick look at Texas Cash 5, and in the 313 drawings held in 2015, #16 was the top hitter with 55 hits, and in 2016, #7 was the biggest hitter with 56. That's more like what I'd expect to see in NY's Take5. I don't know if #17 hitting the most times for three consecutive years is chance without significance or not, but it sure is weird! I would also point out that on the other end of the spectrum with Take5's lowest hitters of the year, I don't see the same number year after year. The least hitting number of the year changes every year. That seems normal to me. Why that hasn't happened on the other end with the big hitters of the year seems odd. IMHO it shouldn't happen, but it did. G5

When there are three ways things can go, the population of each third is going to do one of the three roughly a third of the time.

Say a number is hot or average or cold and they change out the ballsets, the next session roughly one third of the hot numbers will remain hot like your 17, one third will move to average and one third will move to cold. This will happen for each group, so while the coldest numbers could stay cold, it is just as reasonable they move on. Kind of like Russian Roulette the chance of a number surviving in its group gets shorter with each session.

BobP
Novan60

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Mar 9, 2017, 10:20 pm

The broader point that I was trying to make is that regardless of what system is used to segment the numbers, the overall results are the same for all segmentation methodologies over a long period od drawings with relatively minor differences. To me the challenge in finding a winning strategy is finding a a way to leverage that consistency in a manner where the expenditure of winning doesn't outweigh the cost or doesn't take 10,000 drawings to execute.
BobP

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Mar 10, 2017, 5:54 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Novan60 on Mar 9, 2017
The broader point that I was trying to make is that regardless of what system is used to segment the numbers, the overall results are the same for all segmentation methodologies over a long period od drawings with relatively minor differences. To me the challenge in finding a winning strategy is finding a a way to leverage that consistency in a manner where the expenditure of winning doesn't outweigh the cost or doesn't take 10,000 drawings to execute.

Consider making three number combinations, pair four or five of them off against each other.

Affordable and just imagine if you got two of them right!

BobP
Novan60

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Mar 11, 2017, 4:39 pm

Quote: Originally posted by BobP on Mar 10, 2017
Consider making three number combinations, pair four or five of them off against each other.

Affordable and just imagine if you got two of them right!

BobP

Because each drawing is basically a reset of the statistics I do not like the option of hot and cold numbers. I'm much more interested in the fact that over a period of X drawings roughly the same count of numbers will appear as hot and cold. I'd much rather find a way to leverage that information than to play a specific set of numbers because they may or may not be hot in a particular cycle.

That is why I tend t focus on the structure of the sets than the individual numbers themselves because I think there is much more data to work with there than in the numbers. .
jjtheprince14

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Mar 12, 2017, 6:06 pm

All that matters is what state you buy your tickets in. If you're not buying your tickets in Indiana then just forget about ever winning.

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