So many of Us running our own "Back Tests". There are probably as many Test Setups out there as There are People Testing. It occurred to Me that there should be a Standard way of Doing a "Back Test". By Standard, I don't mean My Setup, I mean The List of Questions that a Test Should Answer.
The Obvious First and Only Question "Is the System Profitable"?
From what I have seen so Far, there is No System That is Profitable over a long stretch of Games in any State. Most of the Systems produce multiple combinations. Playing them all is Always a Loser. Tracking Each Combination requires that the Matrix of Data places those combination with the same formula in the Same Column. You can then Track each Columns performance. You can Find Profit in the Columns. Unfortunately over time the best columns do not grow in cumulative profit, they cycle about every 1000-1500 games from their max to near 0. To illustrate, if you played one of these columns from the beginning of the Game up to the Present you might be $50 to $100 Games in the Black. Less Expenses like the cost of Gas to Get to the Terminal, means you in the Red or Walking or hitching a Ride to the Terminal.
Back Testing is just producing Records in Reverse Time. Each The Cells in a Column Represent an "item" purchased from a Specific "Vendor". The "Vendor" does not deliver the same "Item" every day. Each day you get 1 of the items from the same old catalog usually with 1000 items (This is all about the Pick 3). Once the "Books" are produced in Reverse Time, Updating just requires that you go to the Top of the List. The Books also Require an Income Side. Just entering a Win in Another Column tells you how "The Business" is doing overall, but since you have been tracking the "Vendor-Items" on the cost side you have to Track the "Sales" for them also. If you were selling "Items" you would want to know which were "selling" the most. And once those "Books" are complete, you can find the vendors that were profitable and those that are not. But hold on, Maybe some of the Vendors are seasonal. Querying the Books can tell you which "items" were "selling in any group of time frames that you want, Week-Week, Month-Month, the 13th of every month or anything you want to look for.
So Now After your Books are in Order and your Shelves are stocked with 1 Item from Every Vendor you Open for Business and wait for some Random Dude to Come Walking in already "Wearing" one of the Items on Your Shelf. Sorry for all of this Metaphoric Stuff; But, The Books are required to do Audit (Back Test) Your Business (System). Next open departments for very State printing the shirts that the Random Dudes Wear when they go to one of the Departments in to your Store. At the Home Office, keep track of The "Vendor" that produced the "sold" Item Sold in Every State. Then you Eliminate the Losing "Vendors" and go Looking for New" Vendors" or different lines from a Vendor and Back fill your books to See if you want to take them on.
And here lies the reason for doing all of this (Other than being Nuts (I've also been thinking about opening a Scotch Tape Store in the Mall). Computers can make the Books Dynamic. Lets say you want to know how many more "sales" that you would get if you left an item on the Shelf for 2 Draws? Now your Costs Double so your Sales have to do better than that or it's a bad idea. Or lets say you had to do something to an item before selling it so it takes a Day to get the item to the shelf" At the home office The accounting Computer can instantly go from Store to Store for an Update. Programs run a Summery by State and Produce Performance Reports making Recommendations on which Vendors to purchase from.
If you endured that Metaphorical B.S. It just comes down to this. All Stores are Losing Money. A Few Vendors are selling above cost. If you just go back a few games and look for hits, you will move on to some other idea Unless You Get hits in the Now. Vendors close their doors and begin to Rust.
Sorry, what started out as a Question about Standards got a little weird; but, I just wanted to end with the Question, "Do you back test or do Back Test?
p.s. To Those of you that would equate any of this effort to that of a Fiber in a Pile of Buffalo Dung, I will point out that the Buffalo comes back next year to Eat Grass Containing Elements of that Dung. Yeah, I know, There are no numbers in a pile of Dung either.
Bring it