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Back Testing FormulasPrev TopicNext Topic
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Quote: Originally posted by amber123 on Jun 27, 2017
Interesting read Allen on your last entry.
For 30 plus years I've known about the crazy number 9, but recently I've discovered new info that the video below (blue hyperlink) shows, hence my Tesla 369 system. Always trying to tweak those numbers, or any combination of numbers that equal sums of 9.
If you're interested and have the time, please tell me If there's a way you can take advantage of this.
I'm going to spend some time between jobs (down time) tomorrow to find some way to track winning combinations... str8 wins only, that have a 9 related to them, not just adding up to 3, 6, or 9, 18, 27...etc...which I have already done with short tests, but with why some of the winning combinations that don't have the 9 value appear, as they should, just want to find a bias. Sort of an Anti-matter lottery version, it's evil twin...lol
Maybe understanding the positive and negative behaviors, one can make a program that looks for red flags. Hard to say what the red flags are now at this point, it's just an idea. But A I want to make it reality.
Give me some details and I will give it a Look Back
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Quote: Originally posted by AllenB on Jun 28, 2017
Give me some details and I will give it a Look Back
First watch the video in the hyperlink in blue at the bottom.
Then after watching the video, try to find biases involving consideration of the number 9. Also find what triggers would help you identify a prospective fan.
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I am probably going to regret this; but, A bit of the Grape and a whiff of a fire, both grown right here make me a bit Reckless some times. It's a good thing I am happy at home. I can't get into to much trouble here, except maybe HERE.
So here Goes,
Again! This is not, although it could, be meant to Advocate of a new system. Just an example of how a Look Back can be Set-up.
Mostly on the John lately I have had a vision of all of the Pick 3 Games played every day. I am limiting to the games on LP Daily Games Page and using Steve's (Winsumlosum's) P3StateDraws File my Source Data.
So I'm trying to find something to check out. It occurs to me that counting the number of times that one of the 10 digits (0-9) are used in the RNG State Draws in the games prior to the Next Draw might be a source to query looking for a connection to California Midday Draw. So I counted, by Position or in any position. At the same time it was easy to include the Sums.
What to do with the counts? I decided to check to see where the digit selected in the Next draw ranked in the number of hits by position or in any position in the Counts from the previous Day. Using a Line of Formulas that sorted the Ranks, showed where the hit came from, and highlighted a hit, I ran a macro that stepped back through the last 500 games and placed an x in the Ranking of the digit drawn that day in the position. A 500 Game summary where the rank of the drawn number in the described arena hit at a variation of +/-2% on the Position (10%) and +/-4% on the any position (33%). Mot much to go On.
I am formulating an idea for a Rating System based on the tests and searches. Maybe a 1-10 Scale. I give this idea a 2. When I develop the Remarks column, it will probably say something like "This idea sucks, face it, no matter how much time you give it it will never Blow! Ideas with negative results, Suck!. Ideas that are positive, Blow!
That's the crop influence. I better wrap this up before I say something stupider.
Again, It ain't about the System, It's all about the Excel, Man
Sleep will be peaceful and sound here in No-Cal Tonight, Due in no small part to the Local produce that I was privileged to enjoy this evening. Now maybe some of you also know WHY I might be Crazy.
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Quote: Originally posted by amber123 on Jun 28, 2017
First watch the video in the hyperlink in blue at the bottom.
Then after watching the video, try to find biases involving consideration of the number 9. Also find what triggers would help you identify a prospective fan.
Trigger Doubles Numbers : 05 16 27 38 49019-715 Trigger Triples Number or Family Members Numbers : -
Quote: Originally posted by AllenB on Jun 27, 2017
If excel is to formulate algorithms in the realm of randomness, then good luck !
That it not what the Formula Test is for. It just looks back as far as you want to see how many times and when the Formula hit. That's it. Period. It is just a look at reality in the post RNG Draw. It takes another Skill Set to interpret the results and make a successful prediction. Unfortunately what it show is that "Formulas" Hit so infrequently that I don't see how to get a good prediction, YET! I do not want to misstate the meaning of algorithm; But, For this case let's say that they do not exist in the process. I know a formula is probably and algorithm; but, they are to simple in this case to be confused with much bigger processes best done by other programs. The Excel "Algorithm" that tries to predict Can only rely on an If Statement. Other than a strategic series of IF's, I don't know another way to ask a question and get what is usually the wrong answer. So far it has not been possible to produce any IF statement that hits more than 2% over the expected ODDS.
In the end these Formula Test result could put an end to that type of System in General. I am still looking for Formulas Suggestions to Look Back at. So Far I have not found a Formula that stands up to a test over 1000 games. Bu Stand up, I head just it's head above water and likely to go under in the next few draws.
Its Just the Facts, Man
So far it has not been possible to produce any IF statement that hits more than 2% over the expected ODDS.
The overall odds of wining anything in the Illinois lotto (6/52 game) is 13.6%. Using one of my "systems" I can get as high as a 24.8% overall odds of getting ANY prize.
RANGE MATCH0 MATCH1 MATCH2 MATCH3 MATCH4 MATCH5 MATCH6 MYTOT MYPRCT OVERALL GAMECNT C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6
482643 94 100 54 9 1 0 0 -109 57.75193798 24.80620155 258 25 37 48 38 45 46
1259736 105 89 55 8 1 0 0 -113 56.20155039 24.80620155 258 23 41 40 55 34 34
1380893 112 85 53 8 0 0 0 -165 36.04651163 23.64341085 258 32 31 37 50 37 28
1436947 113 85 53 7 0 0 0 -170 34.10852713 23.25581395 258 19 45 37 46 32 33
1707295 107 91 54 5 1 0 0 -129 50.00000000 23.25581395 258 31 34 48 44 35 26
1966470 107 91 52 7 1 0 0 -121 53.10077519 23.25581395 258 18 40 40 44 42 36
177625 113 85 53 7 0 0 0 -170 34.10852713 23.25581395 258 30 34 37 37 40 34
280201 102 96 50 10 0 0 0 -158 38.75968992 23.25581395 258 26 26 49 41 41 43
286932 103 95 50 10 0 0 0 -158 38.75968992 23.25581395 258 25 26 50 41 40 43
289043 100 98 50 7 2 1 0 4927 2009.6899225 23.25581395 258 30 34 47 44 46 31
My program test a system/theory by saying IF I used this system since the first game, how much money would I have won/lost and what percentage overall did I win.
The Range column is an indication of the system/theory I am testing.
Match0-6 is the total times I match 0 to 6 of the wining numbers with my prediction.
MYTOT is the dollar amount won/lost
MYPRCT is the % money won/lost
OVERALL % of "winning" any money
GAMECNT number of games tested
C1-6 number of positional matches
It is not the System or about Playing the Game, It's all about the Foxpro (switching to Java)!
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Quote: Originally posted by Sarge0202 on Jun 28, 2017
So far it has not been possible to produce any IF statement that hits more than 2% over the expected ODDS.
The overall odds of wining anything in the Illinois lotto (6/52 game) is 13.6%. Using one of my "systems" I can get as high as a 24.8% overall odds of getting ANY prize.
RANGE MATCH0 MATCH1 MATCH2 MATCH3 MATCH4 MATCH5 MATCH6 MYTOT MYPRCT OVERALL GAMECNT C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6
482643 94 100 54 9 1 0 0 -109 57.75193798 24.80620155 258 25 37 48 38 45 46
1259736 105 89 55 8 1 0 0 -113 56.20155039 24.80620155 258 23 41 40 55 34 34
1380893 112 85 53 8 0 0 0 -165 36.04651163 23.64341085 258 32 31 37 50 37 28
1436947 113 85 53 7 0 0 0 -170 34.10852713 23.25581395 258 19 45 37 46 32 33
1707295 107 91 54 5 1 0 0 -129 50.00000000 23.25581395 258 31 34 48 44 35 26
1966470 107 91 52 7 1 0 0 -121 53.10077519 23.25581395 258 18 40 40 44 42 36
177625 113 85 53 7 0 0 0 -170 34.10852713 23.25581395 258 30 34 37 37 40 34
280201 102 96 50 10 0 0 0 -158 38.75968992 23.25581395 258 26 26 49 41 41 43
286932 103 95 50 10 0 0 0 -158 38.75968992 23.25581395 258 25 26 50 41 40 43
289043 100 98 50 7 2 1 0 4927 2009.6899225 23.25581395 258 30 34 47 44 46 31
My program test a system/theory by saying IF I used this system since the first game, how much money would I have won/lost and what percentage overall did I win.
The Range column is an indication of the system/theory I am testing.
Match0-6 is the total times I match 0 to 6 of the wining numbers with my prediction.
MYTOT is the dollar amount won/lost
MYPRCT is the % money won/lost
OVERALL % of "winning" any money
GAMECNT number of games tested
C1-6 number of positional matches
It is not the System or about Playing the Game, It's all about the Foxpro (switching to Java)!
The overall odds of wining anything in the Illinois lotto (6/52 game) is 13.6%. Using one of my "systems" I can get as high as a 24.8% overall odds of getting ANY prize.
An increase of 11.2% (13.6% to 24.8%). Sounds like a good system. I am a little confused about the percentages. When you say "anything", That sounds like the lowest prize offered for the game. Your data columns are not lined up so I may be wrong; but, it looks like you had 0 (matching 6). 1 (matching 5), 6 (matching 4) and a bunch of 1 and 2 matches. I don't see how many games are represented in your data. Just a few questions, not meant to be critical.
The Point is that we Need these tests to evaluate our systems. Excel is the only program that I know well enough to set up good Test. My Comment about IF Statement Success, refers to my observations of various systems that try to make selections by position in Pick 3. Several of my old systems involved Grouping combinations into 3 Zones. Selecting from 3 options per position should be easier than picking from 10. The additional combinations from the Zones at best increases the overall success of the system by a small amount. So Far the best Success Rate I've seen is around 3% over expected for 3 or 10 options. All of my attempts to let Excel make those selections with another IF Statement have not been profitable.
The only measure of Success of a system is Profit. I express this as "Cost per Hit". If it is more than the Prize, I loose even though I get a Hit. Observing cycles over the entire history of the game also show that Success over Time is temporary and that Success is capped. There might be 13 Cycles in 14000 Games. Each Cycle so far is a pretty uniform curve with the max profit in each cycle essentially the Same. Time is always the enemy.
Keep Testing Sarge0202. Let me know if there is anything I can Help you with. I have an ancient SupperLotto and a bunch of Fantasy 5 Tests that I have Run.
Thank You for the Comments.
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So many of Us running our own "Back Tests". There are probably as many Test Setups out there as There are People Testing. It occurred to Me that there should be a Standard way of Doing a "Back Test". By Standard, I don't mean My Setup, I mean The List of Questions that a Test Should Answer.
The Obvious First and Only Question "Is the System Profitable"?
From what I have seen so Far, there is No System That is Profitable over a long stretch of Games in any State. Most of the Systems produce multiple combinations. Playing them all is Always a Loser. Tracking Each Combination requires that the Matrix of Data places those combination with the same formula in the Same Column. You can then Track each Columns performance. You can Find Profit in the Columns. Unfortunately over time the best columns do not grow in cumulative profit, they cycle about every 1000-1500 games from their max to near 0. To illustrate, if you played one of these columns from the beginning of the Game up to the Present you might be $50 to $100 Games in the Black. Less Expenses like the cost of Gas to Get to the Terminal, means you in the Red or Walking or hitching a Ride to the Terminal.
Back Testing is just producing Records in Reverse Time. Each The Cells in a Column Represent an "item" purchased from a Specific "Vendor". The "Vendor" does not deliver the same "Item" every day. Each day you get 1 of the items from the same old catalog usually with 1000 items (This is all about the Pick 3). Once the "Books" are produced in Reverse Time, Updating just requires that you go to the Top of the List. The Books also Require an Income Side. Just entering a Win in Another Column tells you how "The Business" is doing overall, but since you have been tracking the "Vendor-Items" on the cost side you have to Track the "Sales" for them also. If you were selling "Items" you would want to know which were "selling" the most. And once those "Books" are complete, you can find the vendors that were profitable and those that are not. But hold on, Maybe some of the Vendors are seasonal. Querying the Books can tell you which "items" were "selling in any group of time frames that you want, Week-Week, Month-Month, the 13th of every month or anything you want to look for.
So Now After your Books are in Order and your Shelves are stocked with 1 Item from Every Vendor you Open for Business and wait for some Random Dude to Come Walking in already "Wearing" one of the Items on Your Shelf. Sorry for all of this Metaphoric Stuff; But, The Books are required to do Audit (Back Test) Your Business (System). Next open departments for very State printing the shirts that the Random Dudes Wear when they go to one of the Departments in to your Store. At the Home Office, keep track of The "Vendor" that produced the "sold" Item Sold in Every State. Then you Eliminate the Losing "Vendors" and go Looking for New" Vendors" or different lines from a Vendor and Back fill your books to See if you want to take them on.
And here lies the reason for doing all of this (Other than being Nuts (I've also been thinking about opening a Scotch Tape Store in the Mall). Computers can make the Books Dynamic. Lets say you want to know how many more "sales" that you would get if you left an item on the Shelf for 2 Draws? Now your Costs Double so your Sales have to do better than that or it's a bad idea. Or lets say you had to do something to an item before selling it so it takes a Day to get the item to the shelf" At the home office The accounting Computer can instantly go from Store to Store for an Update. Programs run a Summery by State and Produce Performance Reports making Recommendations on which Vendors to purchase from.
If you endured that Metaphorical B.S. It just comes down to this. All Stores are Losing Money. A Few Vendors are selling above cost. If you just go back a few games and look for hits, you will move on to some other idea Unless You Get hits in the Now. Vendors close their doors and begin to Rust.
Sorry, what started out as a Question about Standards got a little weird; but, I just wanted to end with the Question, "Do you back test or do Back Test?
p.s. To Those of you that would equate any of this effort to that of a Fiber in a Pile of Buffalo Dung, I will point out that the Buffalo comes back next year to Eat Grass Containing Elements of that Dung. Yeah, I know, There are no numbers in a pile of Dung either.
Bring it
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I back test then I back test the back test looking for something different, Try this try that always looking for that elusive magic formula and just when I think I found one it's too late. It's at the end of it's cycle for who knows for how long. So I put it on the shelf and look for something new/old different that I might have forgot while back testing and start all over again. Now it's all filters of sums, mirrors, flips and flops.
I have learned one important thing and that is to not throw away my money on something that should happen just because it happened before.
"There are no numbers in a pile of Dung either." There may not be any numbers in a pile of dung but there is $$$$$$ in it.
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Quote: Originally posted by Johnebench on Jul 6, 2017
I back test then I back test the back test looking for something different, Try this try that always looking for that elusive magic formula and just when I think I found one it's too late. It's at the end of it's cycle for who knows for how long. So I put it on the shelf and look for something new/old different that I might have forgot while back testing and start all over again. Now it's all filters of sums, mirrors, flips and flops.
I have learned one important thing and that is to not throw away my money on something that should happen just because it happened before.
"There are no numbers in a pile of Dung either." There may not be any numbers in a pile of dung but there is $$$$$$ in it.
"There are no numbers in a pile of Dung either." There may not be any numbers in a pile of dung but there is $$$$$$ in it.
Well Said Johnebench. Sound Like you might be enrolled in the College of Knowledge. I Think I am wrapping up my sophomore year, but I attempt a few advanced courses once in a while.
I have learned one important thing and that is to not throw away my money on something that should happen just because it happened before.
I once heard or read some great advice. "Don't Should Yourself" We People do it constantly. "RANDOM DON'T SHOULD IT'S SELF not never". It does go into cycles where it seams to repeat a past pattern every now and then. I am always looking at a setup that can spot a similar pattern to the present. That may come to me in my Junior Year. I hope so anyway.
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Quote: Originally posted by AllenB on Jul 6, 2017
So many of Us running our own "Back Tests". There are probably as many Test Setups out there as There are People Testing. It occurred to Me that there should be a Standard way of Doing a "Back Test". By Standard, I don't mean My Setup, I mean The List of Questions that a Test Should Answer.
The Obvious First and Only Question "Is the System Profitable"?
From what I have seen so Far, there is No System That is Profitable over a long stretch of Games in any State. Most of the Systems produce multiple combinations. Playing them all is Always a Loser. Tracking Each Combination requires that the Matrix of Data places those combination with the same formula in the Same Column. You can then Track each Columns performance. You can Find Profit in the Columns. Unfortunately over time the best columns do not grow in cumulative profit, they cycle about every 1000-1500 games from their max to near 0. To illustrate, if you played one of these columns from the beginning of the Game up to the Present you might be $50 to $100 Games in the Black. Less Expenses like the cost of Gas to Get to the Terminal, means you in the Red or Walking or hitching a Ride to the Terminal.
Back Testing is just producing Records in Reverse Time. Each The Cells in a Column Represent an "item" purchased from a Specific "Vendor". The "Vendor" does not deliver the same "Item" every day. Each day you get 1 of the items from the same old catalog usually with 1000 items (This is all about the Pick 3). Once the "Books" are produced in Reverse Time, Updating just requires that you go to the Top of the List. The Books also Require an Income Side. Just entering a Win in Another Column tells you how "The Business" is doing overall, but since you have been tracking the "Vendor-Items" on the cost side you have to Track the "Sales" for them also. If you were selling "Items" you would want to know which were "selling" the most. And once those "Books" are complete, you can find the vendors that were profitable and those that are not. But hold on, Maybe some of the Vendors are seasonal. Querying the Books can tell you which "items" were "selling in any group of time frames that you want, Week-Week, Month-Month, the 13th of every month or anything you want to look for.
So Now After your Books are in Order and your Shelves are stocked with 1 Item from Every Vendor you Open for Business and wait for some Random Dude to Come Walking in already "Wearing" one of the Items on Your Shelf. Sorry for all of this Metaphoric Stuff; But, The Books are required to do Audit (Back Test) Your Business (System). Next open departments for very State printing the shirts that the Random Dudes Wear when they go to one of the Departments in to your Store. At the Home Office, keep track of The "Vendor" that produced the "sold" Item Sold in Every State. Then you Eliminate the Losing "Vendors" and go Looking for New" Vendors" or different lines from a Vendor and Back fill your books to See if you want to take them on.
And here lies the reason for doing all of this (Other than being Nuts (I've also been thinking about opening a Scotch Tape Store in the Mall). Computers can make the Books Dynamic. Lets say you want to know how many more "sales" that you would get if you left an item on the Shelf for 2 Draws? Now your Costs Double so your Sales have to do better than that or it's a bad idea. Or lets say you had to do something to an item before selling it so it takes a Day to get the item to the shelf" At the home office The accounting Computer can instantly go from Store to Store for an Update. Programs run a Summery by State and Produce Performance Reports making Recommendations on which Vendors to purchase from.
If you endured that Metaphorical B.S. It just comes down to this. All Stores are Losing Money. A Few Vendors are selling above cost. If you just go back a few games and look for hits, you will move on to some other idea Unless You Get hits in the Now. Vendors close their doors and begin to Rust.
Sorry, what started out as a Question about Standards got a little weird; but, I just wanted to end with the Question, "Do you back test or do Back Test?
p.s. To Those of you that would equate any of this effort to that of a Fiber in a Pile of Buffalo Dung, I will point out that the Buffalo comes back next year to Eat Grass Containing Elements of that Dung. Yeah, I know, There are no numbers in a pile of Dung either.
Bring it
LMAO-with-the-Scotch-tape-store...Ha!
But-if-you-can-build-ALL-those-parameters-into-an-excel,-that-would-be-awesome-and-challenging-to-say-the-least----unless-you're-the-type-who-can-whip-it-up-in-a-jiffy....Like-you...
Wink,-wink...
BTW...The-detail-of-the-explanation-you-made-was-very-well-thought-out...I-commend-you-for-the-illustrations....Not-like-I-need-pictures-but-some-parts-like-the-columns-part..were-very-interesting..
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I-forgot-to-add-that-about-3-months-ago-I-wanted-to-do-a-similar-thing....monitoring-multiple-systems,-and-only-playing-the-ones-which-were-on-a-winning-trend.
Also-....knowing-when-a-trend-is-about-to-go-cold-is-very-important....What-we-need-is-a-super-computer-to-calculate-thousands-of-scenarios.
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Or a Bunch of Computers! LOL
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Quote: Originally posted by AllenB on Jul 7, 2017
Or a Bunch of Computers! LOL
Old-School...
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Quote: Originally posted by amber123 on Jul 7, 2017
Old-School...
I actually use 4 different computers at once when I was doing my back testing. I ended up having to upgrade some power supplies because I would blow them out having max cpu for 12+ hours at a time.
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Quote: Originally posted by Sarge0202 on Jul 7, 2017
I actually use 4 different computers at once when I was doing my back testing. I ended up having to upgrade some power supplies because I would blow them out having max cpu for 12+ hours at a time.
How much have you won with this method?
How do you choose which data sets will provide specific integers that will match the winning combination for a specific drawing?
With that much processing, you must end up with a large number of possibilities that might not be as good as using random selection.
