Probability of Ending a 7 Game SeriesPrev TopicNext Topic

• JADELottery

  

  Eagle Sun

  IA, MN, WI
  United States
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  December 7, 2001
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  Nov 10, 2017, 9:28 am

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  What's the probability a 7 Game Series will end in 4, 5, 6 or 7 games?

  We've been thinking about this for a while.

  The probability is actually based on another probability; the probability that each team is equally matched: strength, skill, talent, ability, agility, etc.

  If the match, m, is 0%, then there is no contest; one team will definitely beat the other.

  If the match is 100%, then both teams have an equal chance of winning.

  The probability a 7 Game Series will end in 4, 5, 6 or 7 games is then based on the match probability, m.

  The equations for each is as follows:

  

   

  Here's a graph of the probabilities.

  

   

  Below is a small table for a few match %'s.

  We can see that when each team is equally matched, 100%, the probability a 7 Game Series will end is highest and equal at 6 and 7 games.

  But, that is only if they are exactly equal.

  It's more likely there are some variations between the teams that puts the probability of team match less than 100%.

  In that case of less than 100%, 7 Game Series should end in 6 Games more often, till about a little more than 70% matched teams, then a 7 Game Series would end in 5 Games.

  Below 50% matched, a 7 Games Series is more likely to end in 4 Games.

  Team Match	Probability a 7 Game Series will end in…
  	4 Games	5 Games	6 Games	7 Games
  0%	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
  10%	81.45%	16.29%	2.04%	0.21%
  20%	65.62%	26.28%	6.64%	1.46%
  30%	52.25%	31.49%	12.11%	4.15%
  40%	41.12%	33.28%	17.41%	8.19%
  50%	32.03%	32.81%	21.97%	13.18%
  60%	24.82%	31.08%	25.58%	18.52%
  70%	19.35%	28.89%	28.21%	23.55%
  80%	15.52%	26.88%	29.95%	27.65%
  90%	13.25%	25.49%	30.93%	30.32%
  100%	12.50%	25.00%	31.25%	31.25%

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• timmsy

  

  Australia
  Member #154,619
  April 23, 2014
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  Nov 12, 2017, 3:03 pm

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  I am working on and excell maco just like this  . Its work in progress but so far its working just needs a little be more work
• dr san

  

  bgonçalves
  Brasil
  Member #92,558
  June 9, 2010
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  Nov 13, 2017, 3:21 pm

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  Ola jade, it is possible instead of the probability of the numbers, which will be drawn to see the probabilities of identifying empty blocks
    In the interconnection of rows and columns in a game matrix 10 by 8 10 lines eight columns = 80 numbers where 5 numbers are drawn
    Or see empty intervals by crossing the line with Cartesian columns.
  So where are the spaces left there would be the numbers of the next draw
• JADELottery

  

  Eagle Sun

  IA, MN, WI
  United States
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  December 7, 2001
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  Nov 14, 2017, 8:41 am

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  In response to timmsy

  Quote: Originally posted by timmsy on Nov 12, 2017

  I am working on and excell maco just like this  . Its work in progress but so far its working just needs a little be more work

  Our equations are based on a several hundred million simulations for various match percentages.

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• JADELottery

  

  Eagle Sun

  IA, MN, WI
  United States
  Member #21
  December 7, 2001
  5,177 Posts
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  Nov 14, 2017, 8:44 am

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  In response to dr san

  Quote: Originally posted by dr san on Nov 13, 2017

  Ola jade, it is possible instead of the probability of the numbers, which will be drawn to see the probabilities of identifying empty blocks
    In the interconnection of rows and columns in a game matrix 10 by 8 10 lines eight columns = 80 numbers where 5 numbers are drawn
    Or see empty intervals by crossing the line with Cartesian columns.
  So where are the spaces left there would be the numbers of the next draw

  This is related to sports games that have a 7 Game Series.

  It would have been posted in the Gaming forum, but it's math specific.

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