That Red Ball In 2020 - Number 18!Prev Topic Next Topic

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GiveFive

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Dec 27, 2020, 7:40 am

The pandemic is just one thing unusual that happened in 2020. It's been one heck of a year chock full of surprises.

Last night was the 13th time the #18 Red Power Ball was drawn in 2020. Think that's not a lot of times in one year for a PowerBall to be drawn?

Consider this, #24 has been drawn 8 times this year and is the second most drawn PowerBall.

In 2019, the most drawn PowerBall was #21 which was drawn 8 times.

In 2018, the most drawn PowerBall was #24 which was drawn 8 times.

In 2017, the most drawn Powerball was #13 and it was drawn 8 times.

In 2016, the most drawn Powerball was #3 and it was drawn 7 times.

Since 10/7/2015 when the current PowerBall matrix was put in place, the most drawn Powerball is #24 which has been drawn 30 times, followed by #18 which has been drawn 29 times, followed by #21 which has been drawn 28 times. G5

Play Smart!
GoogilyMoogily

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Dec 27, 2020, 12:21 pm

What is hot becomes cold. What is cold becomes hot.

This is true for all truly random drawings. Pseudo random numbers are human in, human out.

The time is takes going back and forth between hot and cold, and vice verse, is random. That statement is straight from the desk of Capt. Obvious.

For Powerball, the expected number of one-element samplings needed to collect all 69 objects is 332.48, rounded to 332.

Annual totals do not meet the sample criteria.
weshar75

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Dec 28, 2020, 12:25 am

I played 18 powerball all December to get my $8 win on Saturday night because usually I lose all month long so at least I had one win this month. Yeah me!-weshar75
GiveFive

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Dec 28, 2020, 8:15 am

Quote: Originally posted by GoogilyMoogily on Dec 27, 2020
What is hot becomes cold. What is cold becomes hot.

This is true for all truly random drawings. Pseudo random numbers are human in, human out.

The time is takes going back and forth between hot and cold, and vice verse, is random. That statement is straight from the desk of Capt. Obvious.

For Powerball, the expected number of one-element samplings needed to collect all 69 objects is 332.48, rounded to 332.

Annual totals do not meet the sample criteria.

While everything you said in your post above is true, it most likely confused others that read it when you wrote "all 69 objects".

Just for the sake of clarity, my post was talking about the red balls, not the white balls. G5

Play Smart!
DELotteryPlyr

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Dec 28, 2020, 3:30 pm

That is definitely out of the 'Norm". The 18 Red Ball popped 5 times in 2019 & 2018 so it came from near the bottom.

I always like to compare the hot numbers to the cold numbers. If I am seeing right,

12 & 15 came out ZERO times in 2020 and 4 times (12) & 2 times (15) in 2019

So, hard to tell if the 12 & 15 will be the HOT numbers in 2021? How strange would it be if the 18 continued to pop in 2021 ?

Money WON is twice as good as money earned
cottoneyedjoe

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Dec 28, 2020, 5:09 pm

Interesting observation. I know that Powerball rotates among 2 or 3 sets of balls for both the white and red, and also that the ball sets are replaced every few years. There's also the thorny issue of test draw data, which they don't publish, so who knows how often it has come up in all draws.
DELotteryPlyr

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Dec 29, 2020, 6:49 am

Sooooo... now that you have pointed this out do we PLAY the 18 Red Ball???

Money WON is twice as good as money earned
GiveFive

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Dec 29, 2020, 8:18 am

Quote: Originally posted by DELotteryPlyr on Dec 29, 2020
Sooooo... now that you have pointed this out do we PLAY the 18 Red Ball???

Good question! I've been asking myself the same thing, but haven't been able to come up with an answer that I like!!

Since October of 2015, #18 is ranked second with 29 hits, but when you factor in 13 of those hits came in 2020, then you can see that it hasn't been all that strong since 10/7/2015 when the matrix last changed.

The top ranked PowerBall since October of 2015 is #24 with 30 hits. I like #24 because in 2016, and 2017, it was the third ranked PowerBall, in 2018 it was the top hitter with 8 hits. In 2019 it cooled off, but came back strong in 2020 with 8 hits. (#24 is ranked second in 2020. I'd also point out usually 8 hits in any year is good enough for a number to be the top hitter)

I also look at a moving or "rolling 104 drawings". For instance the first drawing in July until the last drawing in June of the following year. Typically the top ranked hitter in 104 drawings will have 7 or 8 hits.

It's fair to say that a sampling of 104 drawings is arbitrary and isn't considered by probability experts to be a large enough sample. I chose it simply because it was a convenient way for me to compare calendar year over calendar year differences. The roots of that come from my career when I was always asked by exec's to provide them with charts and graphs comparing the current years results to the previous year's. That's OK to do in business, but it may not work well for to statistics and probability analysis.

Fair enough, but who cares??? I obviously don't. And I sure as Hell will care even less if I win a lot of $$$ by doing what I do. G5

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GiveFive

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Dec 29, 2020, 8:34 am

Quote: Originally posted by cottoneyedjoe on Dec 28, 2020
Interesting observation. I know that Powerball rotates among 2 or 3 sets of balls for both the white and red, and also that the ball sets are replaced every few years. There's also the thorny issue of test draw data, which they don't publish, so who knows how often it has come up in all draws.

All very true! It's also done by state lotteries with their ball and drum equipment in many of their state games. And even though its done on a regular basis, one number always comes to the fore and is the top hitter. WHY IS THAT???

I have yet to see anyone with a good explanation to that question. Possibly it's because a ball and drum machine is manufactured by man, and that might have something to do with it.

In my opinion probability experts live in a theoretical world, and that's fine. There is a lot of value add to be gained from their expertise. State run Lottery's are part of the real world. That's two different places if ya ask me. G5

Play Smart!
Mr-B 216

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Dec 29, 2020, 11:29 am

As we see in the chart below, 2020 is the first time in this current matrix, that two PB's (12, & 15) have yet to be drawn in a single year. I like a good long shot every now and then, so I like them both, 12 & 15.

All = 10/07/2015 - 12/26/2020
H = Hits
LGO = Longest Games Out
CGO = Current Games Out

All H LGO 2016 H LGO 2017 H LGO 2018 H LGO 2019 H LGO 2020 H CGO LGO
1 17 111 1 2 78 1 2 61 1 2 47 1 6 36 1 2 27 75
2 19 103 2 2 62 2 3 89 2 2 48 2 5 29 2 5 35 38
3 23 68 3 7 58 3 3 57 3 3 68 3 7 37 3 3 38 52
4 23 83 4 2 53 4 7 38 4 2 83 4 6 39 4 6 5 28
5 18 109 5 5 42 5 3 70 5 2 74 5 1 80 5 6 11 29
6 24 78 6 5 40 6 4 53 6 3 69 6 6 32 6 4 1 42
7 18 78 7 3 47 7 3 69 7 6 26 7 2 43 7 3 3 70
8 21 59 8 5 34 8 4 37 8 4 34 8 4 52 8 4 52 52
9 22 135 9 5 42 9 8 34 9 4 34 9 1 101 9 2 46 46
10 22 54 10 5 45 10 4 41 10 3 45 10 5 34 10 3 6 49
11 20 66 11 3 46 11 5 37 11 4 56 11 3 52 11 4 10 54
12 17 115 12 6 43 12 3 54 12 4 35 12 4 59 12 0 104 104
13 26 76 13 2 72 13 8 23 13 4 49 13 5 42 13 6 2 63
14 18 172 14 3 39 14 0 104 14 3 58 14 6 28 14 6 15 25
15 17 133 15 4 42 15 5 28 15 5 30 15 2 44 15 0 104 104
16 14 132 16 3 68 16 4 43 16 4 48 16 0 104 16 3 62 62
17 17 69 17 5 32 17 4 39 17 3 37 17 2 54 17 2 59 59
18 29 112 18 3 51 18 2 61 18 5 47 18 5 27 18 13 0 26
19 22 92 19 3 79 19 7 28 19 3 65 19 3 56 19 5 23 43
20 21 87 20 5 33 20 2 87 20 4 44 20 3 60 20 6 4 41
21 28 56 21 5 50 21 3 51 21 7 30 21 8 27 21 3 31 43
22 19 101 22 4 47 22 4 65 22 5 34 22 3 73 22 1 101 101
23 17 107 23 5 46 23 1 81 23 2 84 23 5 63 23 4 20 31
24 30 70 24 5 54 24 6 27 24 8 25 24 3 53 24 8 16 26
25 22 91 25 6 34 25 4 47 25 5 39 25 5 41 25 1 91 91
26 22 81 26 2 48 26 5 33 26 7 46 26 4 52 26 4 9 60
546 105 104 104 104 104

What goes around comes around.
GiveFive

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Dec 29, 2020, 4:26 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Mr-B 216 on Dec 29, 2020
As we see in the chart below, 2020 is the first time in this current matrix, that two PB's (12, & 15) have yet to be drawn in a single year. I like a good long shot every now and then, so I like them both, 12 & 15.

All = 10/07/2015 - 12/26/2020
H = Hits
LGO = Longest Games Out
CGO = Current Games Out

All H LGO 2016 H LGO 2017 H LGO 2018 H LGO 2019 H LGO 2020 H CGO LGO
1 17 111 1 2 78 1 2 61 1 2 47 1 6 36 1 2 27 75
2 19 103 2 2 62 2 3 89 2 2 48 2 5 29 2 5 35 38
3 23 68 3 7 58 3 3 57 3 3 68 3 7 37 3 3 38 52
4 23 83 4 2 53 4 7 38 4 2 83 4 6 39 4 6 5 28
5 18 109 5 5 42 5 3 70 5 2 74 5 1 80 5 6 11 29
6 24 78 6 5 40 6 4 53 6 3 69 6 6 32 6 4 1 42
7 18 78 7 3 47 7 3 69 7 6 26 7 2 43 7 3 3 70
8 21 59 8 5 34 8 4 37 8 4 34 8 4 52 8 4 52 52
9 22 135 9 5 42 9 8 34 9 4 34 9 1 101 9 2 46 46
10 22 54 10 5 45 10 4 41 10 3 45 10 5 34 10 3 6 49
11 20 66 11 3 46 11 5 37 11 4 56 11 3 52 11 4 10 54
12 17 115 12 6 43 12 3 54 12 4 35 12 4 59 12 0 104 104
13 26 76 13 2 72 13 8 23 13 4 49 13 5 42 13 6 2 63
14 18 172 14 3 39 14 0 104 14 3 58 14 6 28 14 6 15 25
15 17 133 15 4 42 15 5 28 15 5 30 15 2 44 15 0 104 104
16 14 132 16 3 68 16 4 43 16 4 48 16 0 104 16 3 62 62
17 17 69 17 5 32 17 4 39 17 3 37 17 2 54 17 2 59 59
18 29 112 18 3 51 18 2 61 18 5 47 18 5 27 18 13 0 26
19 22 92 19 3 79 19 7 28 19 3 65 19 3 56 19 5 23 43
20 21 87 20 5 33 20 2 87 20 4 44 20 3 60 20 6 4 41
21 28 56 21 5 50 21 3 51 21 7 30 21 8 27 21 3 31 43
22 19 101 22 4 47 22 4 65 22 5 34 22 3 73 22 1 101 101
23 17 107 23 5 46 23 1 81 23 2 84 23 5 63 23 4 20 31
24 30 70 24 5 54 24 6 27 24 8 25 24 3 53 24 8 16 26
25 22 91 25 6 34 25 4 47 25 5 39 25 5 41 25 1 91 91
26 22 81 26 2 48 26 5 33 26 7 46 26 4 52 26 4 9 60
546 105 104 104 104 104

Very nice format on your chart. G5

Play Smart!
DELotteryPlyr

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Dec 31, 2020, 6:19 am

Well no 18, 12 or 15.

Money WON is twice as good as money earned

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