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Will there be a billion dollar jp

Yes

[ 10 ]

[ 50.0% ]

[ 10 ]

[ 50.0% ]

Total valid votes

[ 20 ]

Discarded votes

[ 1 ]

WhoaMama

United States
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June 27, 2016
306 Posts
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Jan 1, 2021, 1:15 pm

Will there be a billion dollar jp? rollin',rollin',rollin'.......
weshar75

Mcminnville, Oregon
United States
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December 13, 2003
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Jan 1, 2021, 5:12 pm

I serious doubt it will rollover another 30 times to get to a large jackpot someone will win soon.-weshar75
lejardin

United States
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November 4, 2011
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Jan 2, 2021, 3:21 pm

Nah....
rcbbuckeye

100

Texas
United States
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October 23, 2007
18,026 Posts
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Jan 4, 2021, 8:30 pm

There's no way PB or MM go to a million.

I'm gonna win one of them way before they get anywhere near a million.

CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)
weshar75

Mcminnville, Oregon
United States
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December 13, 2003
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Jan 4, 2021, 9:11 pm

Quote: Originally posted by rcbbuckeye on Jan 4, 2021
There's no way PB or MM go to a million.

I'm gonna win one of them way before they get anywhere near a million.

RCB Whoamama said Billion not million I think you might have misunderstood her.-weshar75
rcbbuckeye

100

Texas
United States
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October 23, 2007
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Jan 4, 2021, 11:32 pm

Quote: Originally posted by weshar75 on Jan 4, 2021
RCB Whoamama said Billion not million I think you might have misunderstood her.-weshar75

Why, you are correct.

A BILLION DOLLARS?

Ok. That is pretty crazy. Never happening.

CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)
CDanaT

Central TN
United States
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January 4, 2012
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Jan 5, 2021, 1:05 am

A billion ????? hmmmmmmmmmmmmm, I dunnoooooooooo on that one. It's taken 30 rollovers to get to the $430 range....At this pace it would have to roll at least 10 more times(IMHO).... If you look at the other 2 jackpots that took 30+ rollovers(last June and back in 2016)....So I am leaning towards probably not but I could be wrong.

Si vis pacem, para bellum.
KY Floyd

NY
United States
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October 16, 2005
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Jan 9, 2021, 1:24 pm

At this point there's a decent chance we'll see a billion or more. The first hurdle is a rollover on Tuesday, and somebody winning is getting more and more likely. Figuring it gets bumped up to $625 million the chances of a rollover will be about 2 out of 3. The chances of another rollover are hard to predict, because we don't know whether it would roll to 750ish or significantly more. Picking 800 as a middle ground, the chance of the next rollover would be about 50/50. Put them together and there's about a 1 in 3 chance it will roll through Friday.

If that happens there's a good chance sales will push the advertised jackpot past a billion, but it might come up a bit (or 100 million) shy. If it does come up a bit shy there's another (roughly) 50/50 shot for another roll. Overall that's about a 1 in 6 chance of getting to 1 billion or more.

If it does roll from just slightly under a billion there's a good chance that we'll see a new cash record, which would require an advertised jackpot of about 1.335 billion or more.
db101

United States
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December 14, 2019
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Jan 9, 2021, 6:42 pm

It depends on the number of unique combinations purchased. We don't know how many people buy 1-2-3-4-5+6 every drawing, and similar patterns, but it's probably significant.
KY Floyd

NY
United States
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October 16, 2005
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Jan 10, 2021, 5:08 am

Back in the (early?) 80's the NY lottery ran ads telling people to stop playing the diagonal patterns starting at the top left and top right of the playslips. I don't remember the exact numbers, but I'm pretty sure it was 8 to 10 thousand plays for each of them. Playslips for MM and PB vary a bit from state to state, but extrapolating from the NY figures it would be possible that half a million or a million people would play diagonal patterns that are all based on less than 50 combinations, except that they now have the option of using quick plays. Based on the reports that 70 to 80% of people play quick picks I'll figure that maybe 100 to 300 thousand players might play those various diagonals. Add in all the other patterns fortune cookie numbers, and birthday numbers and there might be several million tickets that are only responsible for 200,000 or so combinations.

I'm sure the lotteries track that sort of info, but AFAIK it's unavailable. Many years ago I stumbled across an ad for some kind of lottery players guide that supposedly had a lot of information direct from the lotteries about frequently played combinations. I'm pretty sure it admitted that the data was a bit out of date because the lotteries were no longer offering the information. I've tried looking for it again, but can't scare it up.

With a true random distribution I can know the exact probability of a winner for any given number of tickets. I could make a SWAG and figure that if 50 million tickets are sold the probabilities will be what we'd expect for 48 million random tickets, but it really doesn't matter. It's always possible that we'll have a winner when sales are very small, and it's always possible that we'll get a rollover when an enormous number of tickets are sold. So far there's never been a drawing when we didn't find out which way it went within 2 to 16ish(?) hours after the drawing.
cottoneyedjoe

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March 28, 2019
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Jan 10, 2021, 2:24 pm

Quote: Originally posted by db101 on Jan 9, 2021
It depends on the number of unique combinations purchased. We don't know how many people buy 1-2-3-4-5+6 every drawing, and similar patterns, but it's probably significant.

I could never get any information out of the CA lottery as to how many people play 1-2-3-4-5 in Fantasy Five every day, but if you go through the draw history looking at non-rollover draws, you can see that on non-rollover days when the winning combination contains three of the numbers {1, 2, 3, 4, 5} the third tier prize is lower than average. The prizes are pari-mutuel, so they are lower than average when there are more winners than average. It suggests that a lot of people play 1-2-3-4-5.

On days when there's been one or more rollovers, people's buying behavior is different, so you have to discard those data.
Gamblor

Berwyn, IL
United States
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October 2, 2009
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Jan 11, 2021, 11:26 am

Quote: Originally posted by WhoaMama on Jan 1, 2021
Will there be a billion dollar jp? rollin',rollin',rollin'.......

According to USA Mega, there have been just a couple secondary million dollar winners for the last few draws. For last Friday's mega millions, only 5 people hit 5 numbers. Typically, there should be 15 or 20 people hitting 5 numbers with a jackpot this big. Maybe there's jackpot fatigue. Maybe people don't want to stand around a cramped convenience store waiting to buy tickets. The numbers drawn on Friday were unusual, too. I believe MM or PB or both will hit a billion soon, and only then will the masses come out to play.
KY Floyd

NY
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October 16, 2005
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Jan 11, 2021, 4:01 pm

"Typically, there should be 15 or 20 people hitting 5 numbers with a jackpot this big."

You might want to pay attention to reality for a change of pace. 15 5+0 winners is wildly unusual, because the number of winners usually matches probability fairly well. The chance of winning the 5+0 prize for MM is 1 in 12.6 million. Last Friday's drawing had sales of about 58.5 million tickets so 5 winners was the most likely result, assuming nothing made the winning numbers more or less popular than if all numbers were chosen randomly. Having 15 5+0 winners is the most likely result of selling about 189 million tickets, or winning numbers that were played very heavily for some reason. Selling 189 tickets is enough to add almost $120 million to the cash value and (depending on the cash/annuity ratio) about $180 million to the advertised jackpot. I'm not going to bother finding out how often that has happened, but it's an infrequent occurrence.

"I could never get any information out of the CA lottery as to how many people play 1-2-3-4-5"

Quite some time ago I stumbled across a web page for a lottery book that was the only one I've ever seen that sounded legit. Based on the ads it didn't offer any pie in the sky strategies to increase your chances lie Gail Howard or Steve Player offerings, but had data about heavily played numbers straight from actual lotteries. As I recall they admitted that the data was bit old, saying that they could no longer get the lotteries to release those details. I'd think that if anyone wanted to push the matter they might have to release data in response to a FOIA request. I don't see any legitimate reason to deny the request, but there's a chance they'd try to make you pay for 1000 pages or something.
lejardin

United States
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November 4, 2011
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Jan 16, 2021, 10:45 am

Quote: Originally posted by lejardin on Jan 2, 2021
Nah....

Uh, I guess I need to retract my position? We could very well hit that billion mark. Yikes! Never say never.
CDanaT

Central TN
United States
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January 4, 2012
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Jan 16, 2021, 12:07 pm

Quote: Originally posted by lejardin on Jan 16, 2021
Uh, I guess I need to retract my position? We could very well hit that billion mark. Yikes! Never say never.

Nope...ain't happenin' sister !!! I winning the darn thing !!!

Si vis pacem, para bellum.

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