Mr-B 216, thanks for reaching out I really appreciate the opportunity to teach others.
First thing: I do have all the data for Pick5 OH, and can confirm 8/12/12. See below.
Per your statement: "OH Pick 5 has 6406 drawings since 08/12/2012. I did a backtest for OH Pick 5, and it wasn't profitable at all. Unless you can come up with a good filter, the cost of playing outweighs the profit. Answer: Yes. You should use a better filter. See Filters section below.
I did a quick test from April 1, 2021 to May 20, 2021.
Play $1 box only for each Midday and each Eve draw
Cost $4760
Win $1668
ROI -64.95%
Answer: I don't understand this part. What numbers were you playing? Please elaborate?
Play $1 straight only for each Midday and each Eve draw
Cost $337,145
Win $250,000
ROI -25.85%
Answer: I don't understand this part either. What numbers were you playing at a cost of $337K?
Will, can you confirm or deny these results?
4/11/2021 E
4/12/2021 M
4/18/2021 M
4/22/2021 E
5/18/2021 M
Mr B 216, I am not being contrarian but respectfully I have to deny these results. When I make a bet I back-test a bit differently. See below.
Filters
RBTL told me on 5/13/21 that I should pay attention to the prior MM/YY (05/2020) because the win on 5/13/21 was 5/21/20. Moreover, 5/2/21 & 5/3/21 had wins from 05/20.
As a result these were the pool of numbers:
90020 07700 71002 88010 70503 91140 01167 26091 80129 09313 38105 39160 41450 97140 43302 62803 70392 72806 03387 70443 67304 04376 64039 83506 30885 39880 44904 48560 06649 12117 21621 21138 12851 18314 42214 83281 93218 82144 19294 72719 61636 69371 81693 56417 46175 41985 19947 51798 99861 58225 29753 27639 44725 92458 58833 57834 43997 65738 68839 47946 66684 88799 Count=Cost: 62 numbers = $62
Had you played all the number from 5/20/21 starting 5/14/21, you would have made at least $208 from a spend of $62. 3.35X your spend. Note: I don't like wins like these. These are very easy. The data showed you that. So far, 5 numbers from 5/20/21 (last year) have hit.
Hence, If you had started playing all numbers from 5/2020 on 5/1/2021. 20days * 2X/day * $62/day = $2480 (your total spend)
STR/BOX = $208 X 5 winners = $1040 (your winnings)
BOX = $415 X 5 winners = $2075 (your winnings)
Result: Not very good but you have new data points to show you the strategy is viable.
Here's what I would've done:
Since I got a hit on 5/13/21, on 5/14/21, I would have starting betting big on Same Day Different Years (SDDY) Ex: 5/14/21 = +2days [5/14/20] -2 days
Translation: Per the data I predict the next Pick5 winner is gonna be w/in 1-2days of last years winner.
Here's what that would've looked like STR/BOX ($1):
On 5/14/21, Play the following numbers: 90020 21621 82144 03387 83281 41450 41985 66684 (Bold = Winner) Count = Cost $8 Winner: $208 (already discussed above).
On 5/15/21, Play 5/14/21's numbers +-1 day 82144 03387 83281 41450 41985 66684 83506 58833 Count = Cost $8 Winner: $0
On 5/16/21, Play 5/15/21's numbers +-1 day 83281 41450 41985 66684 83506 58833 71002 44725 Count = Cost $8 Winner: $0
On 5/17/21, Play 5/16/21's numbers +-1 day 41985 66684 83506 58833 71002 44725 42214 70443 Count = Cost $8 Winner: $0
On 5/18/21 Play the following numbers: +-1 day 83506 58833 71002 44725 42214 70443 62803 68839 Count = Cost $8 Winner: $208
RESULT(STR/BOX): $8 *2X/day * (5days) = $80 ==> $416. Winnings = 5.2X (your spend)
RESULT(BOX): $8 *2X/day * (5days) = $80 ==> $832. Winnings = 10.4X (your spend)
Had you been more ambitious on 5/14/21, Cost $8 (120 total # of permutations)
RESULT(Combo) $960 ==> 25K + 120(200) ==> $25000 + $24960 = $49960
q: Are you telling me you wouldn't take a bet like that, Mr B 216?
RESULT(Combo) Even if you had missed on 5/14/21, like I did yesterday. 4days later $960(5) ==> $4800 ==> $49960
Would you take a bet like that, Mr B 216?
-Will