P3/P4 system based on 1000000 random simulationsPrev Topic Next Topic

cottoneyedjoe

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Oct 2, 2021, 12:38 am
I ran one million simulations of random Pick 3 and Pick 4 drawings and found two interesting statistics:
- In 17 consecutive draws of Pick 3, there is a 51% chance of at least one box-repeat or straight-repeat in that interval.
- In 29 consecutive draws of Pick 4, there is a 51% chance of at least one box-repeat or straight-repeat in that interval.
How can this be applied to picking numbers? One way is to track Pick 3 and note when 17 consecutive drawings have occurred without a straight or box repeat, then play a number that came out some time in the last 17 drawings (box or straight). Same for Pick 4, but tracking when 29 drawings have occurred without a straight or box repeat.

I make no claim that this is a "winning system" or any better than quick picks. Perhaps you can think of another way to use the info or work it into another system. Best of luck to everyone!
lakerben

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Oct 2, 2021, 12:59 am
Quote: Originally posted by cottoneyedjoe on Oct 2, 2021
I ran one million simulations of random Pick 3 and Pick 4 drawings and found two interesting statistics:
- In 17 consecutive draws of Pick 3, there is a 51% chance of at least one box-repeat or straight-repeat in that interval.
- In 29 consecutive draws of Pick 4, there is a 51% chance of at least one box-repeat or straight-repeat in that interval.
How can this be applied to picking numbers? One way is to track Pick 3 and note when 17 consecutive drawings have occurred without a straight or box repeat, then play a number that came out some time in the last 17 drawings (box or straight). Same for Pick 4, but tracking when 29 drawings have occurred without a straight or box repeat.

I make no claim that this is a "winning system" or any better than quick picks. Perhaps you can think of another way to use the info or work it into another system. Best of luck to everyone!
But what number? Sounds convaluted to me?

But my mirror adjacent system hit today 2 days later after the 670. The 196 hit today. No stats just hits. Look at my convaluted example in the mirror adjacent thread. No guessing just hits. Just saying.

I'm clearing up all the comments unfounded that are erraneous about my systems. Just saying.

Say hey!
adobea78

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Oct 2, 2021, 1:12 am

Care to share the ideal behind the simulations. What was the premise/s and parameters pushing these

this simulations?
db101

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Oct 2, 2021, 10:02 am
Quote: Originally posted by cottoneyedjoe on Oct 2, 2021
I ran one million simulations of random Pick 3 and Pick 4 drawings and found two interesting statistics:
- In 17 consecutive draws of Pick 3, there is a 51% chance of at least one box-repeat or straight-repeat in that interval.
- In 29 consecutive draws of Pick 4, there is a 51% chance of at least one box-repeat or straight-repeat in that interval.
How can this be applied to picking numbers? One way is to track Pick 3 and note when 17 consecutive drawings have occurred without a straight or box repeat, then play a number that came out some time in the last 17 drawings (box or straight). Same for Pick 4, but tracking when 29 drawings have occurred without a straight or box repeat.

I make no claim that this is a "winning system" or any better than quick picks. Perhaps you can think of another way to use the info or work it into another system. Best of luck to everyone!
I've a come across this system before and it is as mathematically sound as other statistical systems. The trick is to stay on top of the long stretches when a straight or box repeater is due, and then once youve found one you have to consider carefully what numbers to repeat and whether to play them straight or box or both. This is where another system can fill in the gap.

I wasnt aware that 29 was the magic number for P4. InP3, the magic number for straight repeaters (no box) is 38.

Good stuff as always Joe.
cottoneyedjoe

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Oct 2, 2021, 2:25 pm

Quote: Originally posted by adobea78 on Oct 2, 2021
Care to share the ideal behind the simulations. What was the premise/s and parameters pushing these

this simulations?

Hey Adobea78, the idea behind it is mainly I like to follow CA Daily 3 and Daily 4 and look out for patterns. Some people say the CA daily games aren't random because they use PRNG. I'm not really sure if they're right or wrong so I do my own analysis.

But anyway, I did the simulations using the built-in random function in Python running on a PC. (Someone suggested using a hardware RNG to get true random results, but the good ones are expensive and there's no telling if the cheap ones are any better than a PRNG.) I looked at a list of randomly generated P3/P4 strings where the size of the list varied between 15 and 20 for P3, and 20 and 35 for P4. With a list size of 17 for P3 is where you see that a slim majority have repeaters, and 29 for P4. Like DB said, if you buy into the idea, the only thing to do is wait for a stretch of draws where there hasn't been a repeat, and then play something that came out recently.

Good luck to ya!
cottoneyedjoe

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Oct 2, 2021, 2:27 pm

Quote: Originally posted by db101 on Oct 2, 2021
I've a come across this system before and it is as mathematically sound as other statistical systems. The trick is to stay on top of the long stretches when a straight or box repeater is due, and then once youve found one you have to consider carefully what numbers to repeat and whether to play them straight or box or both. This is where another system can fill in the gap.

I wasnt aware that 29 was the magic number for P4. InP3, the magic number for straight repeaters (no box) is 38.

Good stuff as always Joe.

Thanks DB. Do you still track P3/P4?
lakerben

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Oct 2, 2021, 4:10 pm

In NM the p4 pairs repeat alot. It becomes a matter of when to use them. I hit again this morning. 0016. Yesterday was 2222. Dr miracles 012. And 2×2×2×2=16. Easy money! Bamm!

Stas to me mean nothing. They look impressive and the verbage is on and on but still won't produce a winner. Its a good way to go broke. I showed a stats player at the store how to play. I told him to toss the stat sheet and play miine and other systems on this site. I saw him yesterday and he said he's winning alot! Depending on what state you have its best to track pairs ,triples in the last 10. Its also productive to track pair sums etc and they do hit.

Proof:

This didn't take any exhausting convaluted stats!

Nm last 3 draws mid p4.

0016

2222

8612.

Yes sir!

Say hey!
GuesssWork

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Oct 2, 2021, 5:39 pm

Quote: Originally posted by lakerben on Oct 2, 2021
But what number? Sounds convaluted to me?

But my mirror adjacent system hit today 2 days later after the 670. The 196 hit today. No stats just hits. Look at my convaluted example in the mirror adjacent thread. No guessing just hits. Just saying.

I'm clearing up all the comments unfounded that are erraneous about my systems. Just saying.

But what number? Sounds convaluted to me?

lol sounds conva-clear to me. which state are you in follow the easy directions of 17 previous consecutive drawings but it's never that easy. so when this occurs you can play the 17 past consecutive combos and maybe win or maybe not.

No guessing just hits. Just saying

math used or no math used in a randomized matrix game, everyone is Guessing at the outcome, if you are not God. Some are just luckier with or with out math. How lucky are you?

p.s. i like your signature about we are all legends in our own minds ask around the forums, "who is not" everyone knows but really don't know when to play the magic numbers to win today.

Strategies Timing Luck

It's all Guess-Work
db101

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Oct 3, 2021, 1:31 am

Quote: Originally posted by lakerben on Oct 2, 2021
But what number? Sounds convaluted to me?

But my mirror adjacent system hit today 2 days later after the 670. The 196 hit today. No stats just hits. Look at my convaluted example in the mirror adjacent thread. No guessing just hits. Just saying.

I'm clearing up all the comments unfounded that are erraneous about my systems. Just saying.

Nobody cares whether your mirror is adjacent to the toilet or the shower. this is a thread about a statistical method for playing due repeaters. Go start your own thread. Judging by your post count, you know dam well where the New Topic button is.
db101

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Oct 3, 2021, 1:40 am

Quote: Originally posted by cottoneyedjoe on Oct 2, 2021
Thanks DB. Do you still track P3/P4?

I prefer jackpot games. You got me curious about finding the magic number for Pick 5 so I ran some simulations too and came up with 45. Pick 5 is enough like a jackpot game that it might be worth tracking.
lottoswe

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January 17, 2015
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Oct 3, 2021, 4:45 am
Quote: Originally posted by cottoneyedjoe on Oct 2, 2021
I ran one million simulations of random Pick 3 and Pick 4 drawings and found two interesting statistics:
- In 17 consecutive draws of Pick 3, there is a 51% chance of at least one box-repeat or straight-repeat in that interval.
- In 29 consecutive draws of Pick 4, there is a 51% chance of at least one box-repeat or straight-repeat in that interval.
How can this be applied to picking numbers? One way is to track Pick 3 and note when 17 consecutive drawings have occurred without a straight or box repeat, then play a number that came out some time in the last 17 drawings (box or straight). Same for Pick 4, but tracking when 29 drawings have occurred without a straight or box repeat.

I make no claim that this is a "winning system" or any better than quick picks. Perhaps you can think of another way to use the info or work it into another system. Best of luck to everyone!
How many draws of Pick 3 is 70% chance for straight?
jimjwright

Crested Butte, CO
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January 18, 2009
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Oct 3, 2021, 6:37 am

Well lets say the last 17 draws are all different and consist of 13 singles and 4 doubles. Those draws would cover 13*6 + 4*3 combos or 78 + 12 = 90 combos. So I would say for the next draw you would have a 9% chance of being correct if you played those 17 draws in box form. After all the previous 17 draws and the next future draw are mutually exclusive events, right.

When you start tracking skip events they really don't become interesting until the event you are tracking reaches 5x it's expected skip value.

You are better off tracking a low variance skip like a 50/50 bet versus a high variance skip.
Speler

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April 17, 2021
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Oct 3, 2021, 8:14 am
- In 17 consecutive draws of Pick 3, there is a 51% chance of at least one box-repeat or straight-repeat in that interval.
For the terms, a repeat is normally when the 2nd result of two consecutive drawings is/was the same.

If you use that then you start playing the previous drawings starting after the first drawing. That means that you have 1 to 16 bets to p(l)ay. If you win immediately then you have a net win. As soon as your payout is smaller than the total of your p(l)ayed bets you create a credit saldo in your wallet and must credit your positive bank account. - In your vocabulary a repeat is a second occurrence?

Why don't you do it?

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Oct 3, 2021, 12:30 pm

Quote: Originally posted by cottoneyedjoe on Oct 2, 2021

Hey Adobea78, the idea behind it is mainly I like to follow CA Daily 3 and Daily 4 and look out for patterns. Some people say the CA daily games aren't random because they use PRNG. I'm not really sure if they're right or wrong so I do my own analysis.

But anyway, I did the simulations using the built-in random function in Python running on a PC. (Someone suggested using a hardware RNG to get true random results, but the good ones are expensive and there's no telling if the cheap ones are any better than a PRNG.) I looked at a list of randomly generated P3/P4 strings where the size of the list varied between 15 and 20 for P3, and 20 and 35 for P4. With a list size of 17 for P3 is where you see that a slim majority have repeaters, and 29 for P4. Like DB said, if you buy into the idea, the only thing to do is wait for a stretch of draws where there hasn't been a repeat, and then play something that came out recently.

Good luck to ya!

I looked at a list of randomly generated P3/P4 strings where the size of the list varied between 15 and 20 for P3, and 20 and 35 for P4. With a list size of 17 for P3 is where you see that a slim majority have repeaters, and 29 for P4. The only thing to do is wait for a stretch of draws where there hasn't been a repeat, and then play something that came out recently.

So you have varied strings to extract information (looking for similar structures, repeaters etc) for predictions, in random setting 'appearance'(observed patterns) could be 'false'. Try to create unknown patterns with digits of draws (stretch of draws to start playing/time frame is too broad).

The data 0123456789 has no intrinsic value till information is assigned

Lets say i have these random strings(P3> setup random>Low =0, Up=9, Run=1000)

22178439947151367396
06443270279376874478
39681995988091540819
90027071172807590107
58065161015303268178

Trying to look for repeaters and patterns can be deceptive, lets try to create patterns

CAL

Sat, Oct 2, 2021	3-6-6	3-0-4	3-9-3-0
Fri, Oct 1, 2021	9-1-7	7-2-2	8-6-6-6
Thu, Sep 30, 2021	8-6-4	2-8-7	7-3-9-5
Wed, Sep 29, 2021	4-4-8	1-7-9	4-2-5-2
Tue, Sep 28, 2021	7-2-0	5-6-2	7-5-9-1
Mon, Sep 27, 2021	3-5-2	6-5-5	7-1-1-3
Sun, Sep 26, 2021	5-1-0	9-8-0	0-4-5-8
Sat, Sep 25, 2021	8-9-1	2-5-5	0-7-9-2
Fri, Sep 24, 2021	4-5-5	3-6-1	1-8-9-4
Thu, Sep 23, 2021	4-9-7	1-6-0	1-3-8-7
Wed, Sep 22, 2021	4-5-1	4-8-3	7-0-2-0
Tue, Sep 21, 2021	5-6-7	3-4-8	1-5-9-1
Mon, Sep 20, 2021	8-0-2	1-5-6	3-8-9-9
Sun, Sep 19, 2021	6-6-4	0-2-7	3-3-1-3
Sat, Sep 18, 2021	1-3-7	1-8-9	1-6-1-0
Fri, Sep 17, 2021	3-2-3	4-1-2	1-3-7-7
Thu, Sep 16, 2021	2-8-7	1-5-8	2-7-4-0
Wed, Sep 15, 2021	1-9-7	3-5-6	8-8-6-4
Tue, Sep 14, 2021	3-5-3	6-4-2	2-5-4-6
Mon, Sep 13, 2021	1-3-7	6-2-5	9-0-6-9
Sun, Sep 12, 2021	3-0-6	1-2-7	4-7-4-3
Sat, Sep 11, 2021	4-0-3	1-3-2	1-7-9-1
Fri, Sep 10, 2021	6-2-5	9-3-9	2-8-5-7
Thu, Sep 9, 2021	3-2-0	0-7-8	0-2-5-0
Wed, Sep 8, 2021	2-9-9	5-6-9	0-0-9-4
Tue, Sep 7, 2021	9-8-8	5-9-4	8-8-3-5
Mon, Sep 6, 2021	9-2-4	8-9-9	4-7-1-4
Sun, Sep 5, 2021	2-7-1	3-3-5	8-0-5-0
Sat, Sep 4, 2021	3-5-4	0-9-9	3-5-2-7
Fri, Sep 3, 2021	6-6-4	3-9-5	7-5-8-7

I am going to reduce each string digits till i hit 3 digits> starting from 664354..

71173 7711+3*
077747 7777+04
189819 118899**
707170107 777700011*
58111 111+58**

looking up patterns like -11-15-18-18-19 and 77-70-71-71-73-13

are good candidates for hits 891,137,

doubles 77-11 is pending.

Try to create patterns, do not observe them!

good luck

rcbbuckeye

100

Texas
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October 23, 2007
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Oct 3, 2021, 12:49 pm
Quote: Originally posted by cottoneyedjoe on Oct 2, 2021
I ran one million simulations of random Pick 3 and Pick 4 drawings and found two interesting statistics:
- In 17 consecutive draws of Pick 3, there is a 51% chance of at least one box-repeat or straight-repeat in that interval.
- In 29 consecutive draws of Pick 4, there is a 51% chance of at least one box-repeat or straight-repeat in that interval.
How can this be applied to picking numbers? One way is to track Pick 3 and note when 17 consecutive drawings have occurred without a straight or box repeat, then play a number that came out some time in the last 17 drawings (box or straight). Same for Pick 4, but tracking when 29 drawings have occurred without a straight or box repeat.

I make no claim that this is a "winning system" or any better than quick picks. Perhaps you can think of another way to use the info or work it into another system. Best of luck to everyone!
I was looking at repeats for Texas P3 about a month ago, and saw some interesting results. The problem in my state is there are 4 draws a day, excluding Sundays. So there are typically 104 draws a month. It's hard to pinpoint a number to play with that many draws not to mention the cost.

I'll have to look at it again with your 17 day time frame and see what comes up.

CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)

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