There is a miscalculation in the odds to win.
Based on a play line-by-play line basis, there are two opportunities to win a prize.
For example, to win the top prize of $250,000, in one play line there are two opportunities to win $250,000, either match 0 or 12.
This changes the odds from 1 : 2,704,155.00 individually to 1 : 1,352,077.00 overall to win the top prize of $250,000.
Likewise, all the other prize amount odds are different as shown below.
Here's a break down of the correct odds overall, the payout and what we call the proper payout based on the odds and cost per play line.
Match |
Odds |
Payout |
Proper Payout |
Difference |
0 or 12 |
1 : 1,352,077.00 |
$250,000 |
$280,000 |
-$30,000 |
1 or 11 |
1 : 9,388.43 |
$500 |
$1,880 |
-$1,380 |
2 or 10 |
1 : 309.39 |
$50 |
$62 |
-$12 |
3 or 9 |
1 : 26.94 |
$10 |
$6 |
$4 |
4 or 8 |
1 : 4.52 |
$2 |
$2 |
$0 |
5 or 6 or 7 |
1 : 0.28 |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
The TX payouts are actually very reasonable for this game.
Additionally, we think the TX Lottery may need to check their odds calculation.
Odds are a ratio measure of Success to Failure; typically shown as a simplified ratio of One Success to Any Number of Failures and expressed as 1 : Any Number of Failures or 1 : F.
Any Number of Failures is equal to (Total Outcomes - Successful Outcomes) / Successful Outcomes or F = (T - S) / S.
The ratio can then be expressed as 1 : (T - S) / S.
The TX Lottery appears to be off by 1 in their calculation of the AoN odds.
Looks like they may have just divided the Total Outcomes by the Number of Succesful Outcomes; which in our opinion is not correct.
Match |
TX Odds |
Actual Odds |
12 |
1 : 2,704,156.00 |
1 : 2,704,155.00 |
11 |
1 : 18,778.86 |
1 : 18,777.86 |
10 |
1 : 620.79 |
1 : 619.79 |
9 |
1 : 55.87 |
1 : 54.87 |
8 |
1 : 11.04 |
1 : 10.04 |
7 |
1 : 4.31 |
1 : 3.31 |
6 |
1 : 3.17 |
1 : 2.17 |
5 |
1 : 4.31 |
1 : 3.31 |
4 |
1 : 11.04 |
1 : 10.04 |
3 |
1 : 55.87 |
1 : 54.87 |
2 |
1 : 620.79 |
1 : 619.79 |
1 |
1 : 18,778.86 |
1 : 18,777.86 |
0 |
1 : 2,704,156.00 |
1 : 2,704,155.00 |