Improved odds of a 5W Powerball win, or coincidence?Prev TopicNext Topic

• Wavepack

  

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  Dec 12, 2023, 5:26 pm

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  I've discovered a relationship in the Powerball draws which improves the odds of a 5 white ball hit by a factor of 35.7.

  69 choose 5 = 11,238,513, so the odds of a 5W hit are 1 in  11,238,513, assuming the balls are equally likely to be picked.

  The relationship in past draws reduces the odds to 1 in 314,432

  Still a long shot, but much improved.

  Standard statistical analysis will not sift out this 5W signal.   I discovered it with exhaustive search.

  Could this relationship just be statistical noise particular to the past draws?   Yes, it could.   Just three draws out of 413 past draws have this predictive relationship.
• Stack47

  

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  Dec 12, 2023, 11:38 pm

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  In response to Wavepack

  Quote: Originally posted by Wavepack on Dec 12, 2023

  I've discovered a relationship in the Powerball draws which improves the odds of a 5 white ball hit by a factor of 35.7.

  69 choose 5 = 11,238,513, so the odds of a 5W hit are 1 in  11,238,513, assuming the balls are equally likely to be picked.

  The relationship in past draws reduces the odds to 1 in 314,432

  Still a long shot, but much improved.

  Standard statistical analysis will not sift out this 5W signal.   I discovered it with exhaustive search.

  Could this relationship just be statistical noise particular to the past draws?   Yes, it could.   Just three draws out of 413 past draws have this predictive relationship.

  The reason the odds are 1 in  11,238,513 is there are 11,238,513 possible outcomes and only one of them will be drawn.  And there is always only one outcome regardless how many combos we play. What's your plan for reducing the number of outcomes to 314,432, kidnapping half the ping pong balls?

  "When will we ever learn?"
• Wavepack

  

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  Dec 13, 2023, 4:22 am

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  314,432 is the number of mappings that I choose from.   The mappings map from a subset of the past draw random variables to the next future draw.

  I've replaced the white ball choice with a mapping choice,
• Orange71

  

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  Dec 14, 2023, 1:34 pm

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  It never ceases to amaze me how people think they can improve their probability of winning by frequency analysis of numbers chosen in past lottery draws. It's akin to looking up at the sky and seeing likenesses of things and people in cloud formations. For example, if you look long enough, somewhere in the world, on some random day (or maybe some special day to somebody, somewhere) there will be formations that look like our popular depictions of Jesus or the Virgin Mary. Does this prove a supernatural, transcendental occurrence, a sign or wonder? Of course not!
• Wavepack

  

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  Dec 14, 2023, 7:35 pm

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  I find proof by tautology unconvincing.      I find sigma > 5 convincing.
• play4shekels

  

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  Dec 19, 2023, 12:55 pm

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  The only way I have found to consistently lower the odds in PB or MM is to eliminate all prime numbers. Of the last 408 MM draws, this occurred in 1 out of 7 draws. If everyone stopped buying quick picks and made their own with a simple Bingo hopper, I don't think we would see as many huge jackpots. Most assuredly, more 5 of 6 winners.