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JustMaybe

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Apr 5, 2025, 8:41 pm

This is for all the people that are good with probability.

Disclaimer: I do realize that every lottery draw is a random event and independent of previous draws.

Lucky for Life is a game that is available in 22 states and sells for $2 a play with draws everyday.

I need help with determining which is the best approach to play Lucky for Life.

I have three options listed below.

Option 1: Buying one QP ticket everyday - cost $14 a week. Every day I will be getting different numbers since it's a QP.

Option 2: Buying one QP ticket for a 7 day multi draw - cost $14 a week. In the 7 days, the ticket will be same numbers. The following week, I get another QP multi draw and obviously a different set of numbers.

Option 3: Pick one day in the week and buy 7 QP tickets for one draw for $14. Then play again the same day the following week. This option will present different sets of numbers for a single draw.

Based on probability or any other facts. Which one is the best approach to take?

I hope the feedback will help other Lucky for Life players out there.

Thanks in advance.

I believe winning the lottery jackpot is a 💯 % factor of luck.

May Fortuna, goddess of chance or lot vindicate me.
jimjwright

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Apr 5, 2025, 9:28 pm

This previous discussion might be helpful to you

https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/229884
JustMaybe

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Apr 5, 2025, 10:50 pm

Quote: Originally posted by jimjwright on Apr 5, 2025
This previous discussion might be helpful to you

https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/229884

Thank you for the link.

Looks like everyone went fishing at some point in the thread 🤣

I believe winning the lottery jackpot is a 💯 % factor of luck.

May Fortuna, goddess of chance or lot vindicate me.
parlayman

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bliss
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Apr 6, 2025, 9:29 am

Best play of all, I think, would be to forget about lottery. Open a tax-advantaged retirement account. When they ask what strategy you want, grab the slider and drag it all the way over to "Aggressive Growth." Put your lottery money in there every week. Don't laugh. If you had done this in 2013 when I first joined this board, you would have a pretty decent supplementary retirement account now and you wouldn't even have needed to beat 30 million to one odds.

-p
JustMaybe

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Apr 6, 2025, 11:16 am

Quote: Originally posted by parlayman on Apr 6, 2025
Best play of all, I think, would be to forget about lottery. Open a tax-advantaged retirement account. When they ask what strategy you want, grab the slider and drag it all the way over to "Aggressive Growth." Put your lottery money in there every week. Don't laugh. If you had done this in 2013 when I first joined this board, you would have a pretty decent supplementary retirement account now and you wouldn't even have needed to beat 30 million to one odds.

I appreciate the advice and I have already done that.

I got tax advantaged retirement accounts, got self directed investment that are 100% high growth. I max out my HSA every year. Got multiple high yield savings account. I got exposure to local, international and emerging markets.

My day job is in investment finance.

With my financial background, playing the lottery is entertainment for me and not my retirement plan.

I don't buy coffee, but I will also add that the daily cup of coffee does not jeopardize a person's retirement 🤣🤣🤣🤣

I believe winning the lottery jackpot is a 💯 % factor of luck.

May Fortuna, goddess of chance or lot vindicate me.
KY Floyd

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Apr 6, 2025, 2:47 pm

The easiest part, which almost everyone agrees on, is that every combination has the same odds, so there's no functional difference between options 1 and 2.

The part that's simple, but somehow still confuses some people, is that option 3 will give you a very slightly better chance of winning once with the trade off of making it impossible to win twice. In a game where wining once means you're set for life what's the advantage of trading away a better chance of winning once for a virtually impossible chance of winning more than once?
JustMaybe

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Apr 6, 2025, 5:16 pm

Quote: Originally posted by KY Floyd on Apr 6, 2025
The easiest part, which almost everyone agrees on, is that every combination has the same odds, so there's no functional difference between options 1 and 2.

The part that's simple, but somehow still confuses some people, is that option 3 will give you a very slightly better chance of winning once with the trade off of making it impossible to win twice. In a game where wining once means you're set for life what's the advantage of trading away a better chance of winning once for a virtually impossible chance of winning more than once?

Thank you for the feedback.

I actually feel the better approach is to look at the chances as opposed to probability since every number has the same probability of getting drawn.

Option 3 gives one more chances to win in one draw.

I believe winning the lottery jackpot is a 💯 % factor of luck.

May Fortuna, goddess of chance or lot vindicate me.
parlayman

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bliss
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Apr 6, 2025, 5:49 pm

Quote: Originally posted by JustMaybe on Apr 6, 2025
I appreciate the advice and I have already done that.

I got tax advantaged retirement accounts, got self directed investment that are 100% high growth. I max out my HSA every year. Got multiple high yield savings account. I got exposure to local, international and emerging markets.

My day job is in investment finance.

With my financial background, playing the lottery is entertainment for me and not my retirement plan.

I don't buy coffee, but I will also add that the daily cup of coffee does not jeopardize a person's retirement 🤣🤣🤣🤣

Good on you. Well done. I hope others will listen up and follow your lead. And yeah, your best chance of winning that lottery during the short amount of time we are allotted in this life is to play all at once.

I don't buy coffee, but I will also add that the daily cup of coffee does not jeopardize a person's retirement 🤣🤣🤣🤣

To give you an idea what a numbers nut I am, I once ran a career spreadsheet on this question showing over 45 years (a standard working career at the time) how much a coffee jar investment fund would be worth and the final number was shocking. I showed it to a finance guy and he was sure I had made a mistake, but all I did was assume the money went in a simple interest bearing account at 4% (this was before the era of low interest rates) compounded daily and add the Starbuck's coffee money every day. After I ran that worksheet, I started making coffee at home.

-p
Stat$talker

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Apr 6, 2025, 8:16 pm

"The easiest part, which almost everyone agrees on, is that every combination has the same odds,"

It'z Falisophiez (falicy) like THAT, the sole reazon why the following 2 werdz xzist...

Possibility & Probability contained btween 0 & 1. Leaning most to 1

-Stat$talker
JustMaybe

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Apr 6, 2025, 9:10 pm

Quote: Originally posted by parlayman on Apr 6, 2025
Good on you. Well done. I hope others will listen up and follow your lead. And yeah, your best chance of winning that lottery during the short amount of time we are allotted in this life is to play all at once.

I don't buy coffee, but I will also add that the daily cup of coffee does not jeopardize a person's retirement 🤣🤣🤣🤣

To give you an idea what a numbers nut I am, I once ran a career spreadsheet on this question showing over 45 years (a standard working career at the time) how much a coffee jar investment fund would be worth and the final number was shocking. I showed it to a finance guy and he was sure I had made a mistake, but all I did was assume the money went in a simple interest bearing account at 4% (this was before the era of low interest rates) compounded daily and add the Starbuck's coffee money every day. After I ran that worksheet, I started making coffee at home.

I totally agree with you on this statement

how much a coffee jar investment fund would be worth and the final number was shocking.

Yes, the amount could be a lot, but sometimes we forget that this life is meant to be lived now.

It's unfortunate that so many people get trapped in the future.

Everything we do is for a certain time in the future. A future that is not guaranteed.

One never knows how long they will live, some die at 20 others at 40 and others at 90.

I don't mean that we should never plan for the future, but if a cup of coffee gives you joy every morning, go get it and enjoy every sip.

For me the future is not assured, but if I win the jackpot, I may go with the annuity 🤣🤣🤣🤣

I believe winning the lottery jackpot is a 💯 % factor of luck.

May Fortuna, goddess of chance or lot vindicate me.
parlayman

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bliss
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Apr 7, 2025, 5:34 am

Quote: Originally posted by JustMaybe on Apr 6, 2025
I totally agree with you on this statement

how much a coffee jar investment fund would be worth and the final number was shocking.

Yes, the amount could be a lot, but sometimes we forget that this life is meant to be lived now.

It's unfortunate that so many people get trapped in the future.

Everything we do is for a certain time in the future. A future that is not guaranteed.

One never knows how long they will live, some die at 20 others at 40 and others at 90.

I don't mean that we should never plan for the future, but if a cup of coffee gives you joy every morning, go get it and enjoy every sip.

For me the future is not assured, but if I win the jackpot, I may go with the annuity 🤣🤣🤣🤣

For me the future is not assured, but if I win the jackpot, I may go with the annuity 🤣🤣🤣🤣

LOLs!

-p
JustMaybe

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Apr 7, 2025, 5:40 pm

Quote: Originally posted by parlayman on Apr 7, 2025
For me the future is not assured, but if I win the jackpot, I may go with the annuity 🤣🤣🤣🤣

LOLs!

I know that sounds like am contradicting myself, lol.

But honestly unless there is very valid reason as to why I should not take the annuity, for instance the annuity is not guaranteed, I would be more than happy to get the full payout after 30 years.

The only investment I can do with the initial payout would be in bonds.

So I could as well let them do that for me with the full cash amount 😁

I believe winning the lottery jackpot is a 💯 % factor of luck.

May Fortuna, goddess of chance or lot vindicate me.
hypersoniq

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Apr 7, 2025, 11:16 pm

Personally, I like option 2 the best. It is more convenient than option 1, and even if you have the same numbers for a week, they will be drawing different ones.

In my personal view, I don't like option 3 because you in no way significantly reduce the odds by playing 7 different combos for just one draw, and you miss 6 other draws. I have learned that with these jackpot games, one ticket is enough, and if I were to buy 2 for the same draw, am I not essentially betting against myself?

7 chances at one event with millions of possible combos vs. 1 chance at 7 events... I would go option 2.

Best of luck whichever way you decide.

Have an EXCELlent day!
KY Floyd

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Apr 8, 2025, 12:49 am

"I actually feel the better approach is to look at the chances as opposed to probability "

Perspective and semantics can turn it into a very long discussion, but they're (extremely close to) the same thing. Since the probability advantage of playing all of your chances on a single drawing is extremely small when the number of chances is extremely small relative to the possible combinations let's ignore it for a moment. Suppose you have the option to buy seven $1 tickets for a game with 70 million possible combinations or one $7 ticket for a game with 10 million possible combinations, and both games offer the same size jackpot. You have 7 times as many chances to win the first game, but you have exactly the same chance/probability of winning. You do get 6 more chances to win after the first ticket loses, but at the same time you have 6 more chances to be disappointed as you check each loser. What actual advantage do you get by having more chances?

"I could as well let them do that for me with the full cash amount "

The "advantage" of the annuity is that interest is earned on the full, pre-tax cash value, so the annual interest is more than you'd get by investing your after-tax net from taking the c ash up front. That's great if you want a lot of money invested or want to leave a big inheritance to somebody. The downsides are that the big games mostly have a sliding scale annuity that starts off by paying less than 2% of the total prize, and that if you want to spend more than the after-tax net of the early annual payment(s) you'll need to borrow money. And even if you're in your 20s there's a chance you'll die early or be incapacitated before you've been able to enjoy more than a modest fraction of the prize. I think the huge houses and expensive cars so many people fantasize about are ridiculous, but there are lots of other things people might want without having to save up or borrow money.

"you miss 6 other draws "

That's what the lottery wants to hear. People that have to be in it, despite the low odds of winning or the balance between risk and reward are the reason MM thinks it's safe to start charging $5 per ticket.
ethanl

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Apr 8, 2025, 10:10 am
Option 1: One QP ticket daily (different numbers each day)
- Pros:
  - Maximizes number variety across the week.
  - Spreads your plays across 7 independent draws.
  - Gives you 7 chances to win smaller prizes or hit the jackpot.
- Cons:
  - Requires daily action unless you automate it.
- Probabilistic Note: You're covering 7 different number sets across 7 independent draws—highest "coverage" of outcomes over the week.
Option 2: One QP ticket for a 7-day multi-draw (same numbers every day)
- Pros:
  - Set-it-and-forget-it: low effort, simple.
  - You’re effectively “repeating” the same bet 7 times—if you believe in lucky numbers or patterns, this appeals emotionally.
- Cons:
  - You're "banking" on a single number set to win in 7 attempts.
- Probabilistic Note: Mathematically identical in chances, but if the numbers hit, they could hit big. Emotionally satisfying if you believe in persistence.
Option 3: Seven QP tickets for one draw day (all in the same draw)
- Pros:
  - Maximizes the number of entries for a single draw—boosts chance of winning something on that draw day.
  - Could be more exciting to check all results at once.
- Cons:
  - Only one draw per week, so you’re putting all your eggs in one basket.
- Probabilistic Note: Still 7 chances, but if that draw doesn't go your way, the whole week is a bust.
Bottom Line (Probability-wise):

All three give you 7 independent chances at the same odds—so none of them is better in pure probability terms.

But in practice, here's how to choose:
- If you want more excitement and daily engagement → Option 1 is best.
- If you prefer simplicity and a "set it and forget it" style → Option 2 is most convenient.
- If you enjoy the thrill of one big drawing with multiple entries → Option 3 gives you that burst of anticipation.

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