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Tucker Black

Colorado
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February 25, 2016
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May 9, 2025, 10:33 am

I have a strategy for deciding which scratch-off ticket to buy. Colorado gives me the following information:

1) payback %

2) probability of winning the top prize

3) how many top prizes are left

Ideally, I would also like to know how many tickets are left, but Colorado does not give me this information.

My rule is:

1) payback % must be at least 65%

2) probability of winning the top prize must be better than 1 in 1 million

3) all top prizes, or almost all of them if there were more than just 3 or 4 to begin with, must be left

Rule 1) eliminates the $1, $2 and $3 tickets. I'll buy four $5 tickets, or two $10 tickets, or one $20 ticket. $20 is my limit.

Some of these games have half or less of the top prizes remaining and haven't been around long. I don't know if the players were just really lucky or if people bought a lot of tickets. It makes a difference in the odds of me winning. Because Colorado doesn't tell me how many tickets are remaining, I skip it. I could figure it out if they tell me how many winning tickets were redeemed for any prize, not just the top prize. They do for PB and MM, although that's not necessary since those are draw games where my chances of winning have nothing to do with how many other people won.
Justing618

Baltimore
United States
Member #221,592
March 26, 2022
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May 9, 2025, 10:36 am

Quote: Originally posted by Tucker Black on May 9, 2025
I have a strategy for deciding which scratch-off ticket to buy. Colorado gives me the following information:

1) payback %

2) probability of winning the top prize

3) how many top prizes are left

Ideally, I would also like to know how many tickets are left, but Colorado does not give me this information.

My rule is:

1) payback % must be at least 65%

2) probability of winning the top prize must be better than 1 in 1 million

3) all top prizes, or almost all of them if there were more than just 3 or 4 to begin with, must be left

Rule 1) eliminates the $1, $2 and $3 tickets. I'll buy four $5 tickets, or two $10 tickets, or one $20 ticket. $20 is my limit.

Some of these games have half or less of the top prizes remaining and haven't been around long. I don't know if the players were just really lucky or if people bought a lot of tickets. It makes a difference in the odds of me winning. Because Colorado doesn't tell me how many tickets are remaining, I skip it. I could figure it out if they tell me how many winning tickets were redeemed for any prize, not just the top prize. They do for PB and MM, although that's not necessary since those are draw games where my chances of winning have nothing to do with how many other people won.

Hahaha! Your payback has to be atleast 65%. Go get a couple thousand dollars worth. Let us know how you do.
Tucker Black

Colorado
United States
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February 25, 2016
1,134 Posts
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May 9, 2025, 10:38 am

Quote: Originally posted by Justing618 on May 9, 2025
Hahaha! Your payback has to be atleast 65%. Go get a couple thousand dollars worth. Let us know how you do.

Why would I spend $2,000 on that? That's ridiculous.

65% of a $10 ticket means that the average prize is $6.50. Did you expect it to be markedly lower or higher?
Justing618

Baltimore
United States
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March 26, 2022
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May 9, 2025, 10:50 am

Quote: Originally posted by Tucker Black on May 9, 2025
Why would I spend $2,000 on that? That's ridiculous.

65% of a $10 ticket means that the average prize is $6.50. Did you expect it to be markedly lower or higher?

You just made a buncha bogus demands. To spend 20 bucks. 😂 And for someone who constantly preaches "random "Now your gonna use math? 😂 Your hand probably starts shaking when you hand the cashier money.😂 Let me know how that 65% turns out.
Tucker Black

Colorado
United States
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February 25, 2016
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May 9, 2025, 10:56 am

Quote: Originally posted by Justing618 on May 9, 2025
You just made a buncha bogus demands. To spend 20 bucks. 😂 And for someone who constantly preaches "random "Now your gonna use math? 😂 Your hand probably starts shaking when you hand the cashier money.😂 Let me know how that 65% turns out.

How is my strategy bogus? You make posts make so little sense.
Justing618

Baltimore
United States
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March 26, 2022
999 Posts
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May 9, 2025, 11:03 am

Quote: Originally posted by Tucker Black on May 9, 2025
How is my strategy bogus? You make posts make so little sense.

You make no sence. Your trying to use math on a game . That you said this yourself." Because Colorado doesn't tell me how many tickets are remaining, I skip it. I could figure it out if they tell me how many winning tickets were redeemed for any prize, not just the top prize" 😂 On a game you said does not tell you how many tickets are remaining. 😂
Tucker Black

Colorado
United States
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February 25, 2016
1,134 Posts
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May 9, 2025, 12:04 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Justing618 on May 9, 2025
You make no sence. Your trying to use math on a game . That you said this yourself." Because Colorado doesn't tell me how many tickets are remaining, I skip it. I could figure it out if they tell me how many winning tickets were redeemed for any prize, not just the top prize" 😂 On a game you said does not tell you how many tickets are remaining. 😂

I'm not getting your point. If a game has 4 of 8 top prizes remaining (that would be half), but I don't know how many tickets are remaining, I don't know if my odds of winning are good or bad. If this game was 90% sold, I would definitely play. My odds of winning the top prize are 5 times better. But if the game is only 10% sold, I would definitely not play. My odds of winning the top prize are much less. Conclusion: this is why I don't bother if a game has 4 of 8 top prizes remaining.

If a game has all the top prizes remaining, then I don't need to know how many tickets are remaining, although fewer tickets remaining would be better -- same number of top prizes divided amongst fewer tickets improves my odds of winning.
Justing618

Baltimore
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March 26, 2022
999 Posts
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May 9, 2025, 12:22 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Tucker Black on May 9, 2025
I'm not getting your point. If a game has 4 of 8 top prizes remaining (that would be half), but I don't know how many tickets are remaining, I don't know if my odds of winning are good or bad. If this game was 90% sold, I would definitely play. My odds of winning the top prize are 5 times better. But if the game is only 10% sold, I would definitely not play. My odds of winning the top prize are much less. Conclusion: this is why I don't bother if a game has 4 of 8 top prizes remaining.

If a game has all the top prizes remaining, then I don't need to know how many tickets are remaining, although fewer tickets remaining would be better -- same number of top prizes divided amongst fewer tickets improves my odds of winning.

How can you use any kind of math when you don't know?
Tucker Black

Colorado
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February 25, 2016
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May 9, 2025, 12:26 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Justing618 on May 9, 2025
How can you use any kind of math when you don't know?

I just said, I don't bother with games that have few top prizes remaining, because I don't know how many tickets remain.

There are plenty of games that have all, or almost all, of the top prizes remaining. I'll consider those.
Justing618

Baltimore
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March 26, 2022
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May 9, 2025, 12:40 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Tucker Black on May 9, 2025
I just said, I don't bother with games that have few top prizes remaining, because I don't know how many tickets remain.

There are plenty of games that have all, or almost all, of the top prizes remaining. I'll consider those.

"probability of winning the top prize must be better than 1 in 1 million" Your using math.
Tucker Black

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February 25, 2016
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May 9, 2025, 1:05 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Justing618 on May 9, 2025
"probability of winning the top prize must be better than 1 in 1 million" Your using math.

What about it?
Justing618

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March 26, 2022
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May 9, 2025, 1:30 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Tucker Black on May 9, 2025
What about it?

Your trying to use math. That math can't be used for. And for someone who says it random. Which you have said in several other posts.How can you possibly even think of math. If it's random. And remember stay on the topic...........
Tucker Black

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February 25, 2016
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May 9, 2025, 1:52 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Justing618 on May 9, 2025
Your trying to use math. That math can't be used for. And for someone who says it random. Which you have said in several other posts.How can you possibly even think of math. If it's random. And remember stay on the topic...........

Probability theory uses mathematics to describe the behavior of random numbers (such as expected value, variance, and probability distribution).

For example:

A $10 ticket has a 10% chance of winning $10, a 1% chance of winning $100, and a 1 in 1000 chance of winning $5,000. This totals 11.1% chance of winning something ==> 88.9% chance of losing (not your typical scratch-off ticket; it's just an example).

This ticket has an expected value of $7 (a 70% payback). It's easy: 10% * $10 plus 1% times $100 plus 1/1000*$5000 = $7.

Just because the actual outcome of a future random event is unknown (such as, how much will this $10 ticket win me?) does not mean we know absolutely nothing about it. We know that this $10 ticket is worth an average of $7 in wins. I might break even with a $10 win, I might win $100, I might win the top prize of $5,000, or I might lose. I don't know exactly what I'm going to win, but I do know that I will win an average of $7.
Justing618

Baltimore
United States
Member #221,592
March 26, 2022
999 Posts
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May 9, 2025, 1:58 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Tucker Black on May 9, 2025
Probability theory uses mathematics to describe the behavior of random numbers (such as expected value, variance, and probability distribution).

For example:

A $10 ticket has a 10% chance of winning $10, a 1% chance of winning $100, and a 1 in 1000 chance of winning $5,000. This totals 11.1% chance of winning something ==> 88.9% chance of losing (not your typical scratch-off ticket; it's just an example).

This ticket has an expected value of $7 (a 70% payback). It's easy: 10% * $10 plus 1% times $100 plus 1/1000*$5000 = $7.

Just because the actual outcome of a future random event is unknown (such as, how much will this $10 ticket win me?) does not mean we know absolutely nothing about it. We know that this $10 ticket is worth an average of $7 in wins. I might break even with a $10 win, I might win $100, I might win the top prize of $5,000, or I might lose. I don't know exactly what I'm going to win, but I do know that I will win an average of $7.

No already know all that. But again. There's no math in random! You can buy 10 tickets and win on all ten. You can buy 10 and loose on all ten.
Tucker Black

Colorado
United States
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February 25, 2016
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May 9, 2025, 2:13 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Justing618 on May 9, 2025
No already know all that. But again. There's no math in random! You can buy 10 tickets and win on all ten. You can buy 10 and loose on all ten.

"There's no math in random" ... really ...

Of course you can buy 10 tickets and win on all ten. 11.1% raised to the power of ten (very unlikely but possible).

You can buy 10 tickets and lose on all ten. 88.9% raised to the power of ten (31% chance).

How is that not math?

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