Because these two games have different prices, in order to compare the two games, let's say I wish to spend $10 (the smallest amount with which I can buy a whole number of tickets for either game). I am only considering PB with no multiplier for $1 extra. Personally, I consider the multiplier option a waste of money. If I want to spend more money on lottery tickets, I'll just buy more of them.
For $10, I can buy 2 MM tickets, or I can buy 5 PB tickets.
Both games have similar probabilities of winning various prize levels. The differences lie in the prize amounts. MM uses 70 white balls and 24 gold balls, and PB uses 69 white balls and 26 gold balls. There is no practical difference between a 1 in 292 million chance of winning vs a 1 in 290 million chance of winning. Both are astronomical.
If I don't care about lower prizes, and the MM jackpot is more than 2.5 times the PB jackpot, MM is better on a percentage basis; otherwise PB is better. But regardless of the jackpot amount, I'm getting lower odds of winning a large amount of money with MM (2 chances to win instead of 5). I still might buy the PB tickets even if MM is vastly more, just because I get more chances to win it. Either one is a life-changing amount of money, and personally, I would prefer more chances to win. Other people may choose the game with a higher jackpot amount, buying fewer tickets for the same total amount of money, or buying the same number of tickets and spending more money on them.
Now let us consider the difference between the two games in the lower prizes.
The second prize (match all five white balls but not the gold ball) in MM pays $1 million times some random multiplier. The average multiplier is 3, so let's call it $3 million. The second prize in PB (same thing, match all five white balls but not the gold ball) pays $1 million. Given the choice between 2 chances to win $3 million or 5 chances to win $1 million, the two are roughly the same, as a percentage of your ticket price. But similar to the jackpot, I would rather have more chances to win, even if the amount is less. $1 million is not chump change. That is still a life-changing amount of money.
And then there's the third prize (match 4 white balls plus the gold ball). MM pays $10,000 times a random number, for an average of $30,000. PB pays $50,000. This one is obviously better for PB. You win more money (unless your MM multiplier is 10X, which is only 1 in 32, or the same amount with a 5X, which is a 1 in 16 chance). More money (most likely) with 5 chances to win instead of 2? Easy decision.
MM pays more for prize levels 4 and below, especially level 4, with a significantly higher % of your ticket price than PB.
Overall, both games are the same, in terms of what % of your ticket price is paid out in prizes at any level. The main difference is that PB pays more for the 3rd prize while MM pays more for the 4th prize and lower.
But given the price difference, for me, I would take the 5 chances to win PB instead of 2 chances to win MM. I also don't like the mandatory multiplier in MM, which is an option to pay extra for with PB. I consider the multiplier feature to be a rip-off, like an extended warranty for a car. I might win, but it's probably going to be a profit for the entity selling me the feature.
