Quote: Originally posted by Player649 on Jan 28, 2026
A simple hypothetical scenario regarding the relationships between cover risks and wheel financials.
If you use wheels it is essential to be aware of these relationships.
Description:
- lottery: 649
- numbers used for wheels: 21
Create 2 wheels using CoverMaster:
- wheels parameters: win 3 if hit 3 in 21 numbers
- 100% cover = 97 tickets.
- 60% cover = 42 tickets.
Test conditions:
10 draws with the assumption that in all 10 I always hit 3 out of 21.
The second assumption is that there is only 1 winner per draw in each wheel.
These assumptions are selected for simplicity and clarity. They only partially reflect reality which can be much more complex.
ROI = Return on Investment (% of money won vs money spent)
P/L = Profit/Loss (amount of money won vs amount of money spent)
Test analysis:
100% cover
- winners = 10 x $10 = $100
- cost = 10 x $97 = $970
- ROI = 10.31%
- P/L = -$870
60% cover
- winners = 6 x $10 = $60
- cost = 10 x $42 = $420
- ROI = 14.29%
- P/L = -$360
Both ROI and P/L favor the smaller wheel.
The main observation from this is that, as the wheel cover diminishes and thus the risk increases, the wheel size is reduced - and the financials improve.
This is true not only for this simple scenario but for all other possible scenarios: with the same number of numbers smaller wheels will provide better financials. I will provide the proof in a moment.
And this is regardless of the fact that larger wheels have greater winning potential because they have more tickets.
Thus, financials should be the main consideration when evaluating (and selecting) wheels.
The common saying goes that you get what you pay for. NOT with the high wheel covers. Their cost is high and returns poor: the winnings do not justify the cost.
Here is the proof that smaller wheels provide better financials.
Conditions:
- Lottery BC 649
- All wheels have all 49 numbers but distributed uniquely (thus each wheel is unique).
- Based on the most recent draws ending Jan 24/26.
- 3 wheel sizes: 10, 15, 30 tickets.
- All wheels were generated by custom algorithms and none by Cover Master.
- No winning guarantees for any wheel.
- Backtrack 20 draws which is about 2.5 months.
- Using wheel ROI as the measurement.
- Qualifying threshold 70% ROI minimum.
- ROIs include only 2+, 3 & 4 number winners, the most common in this lottery.
- Each test involves 1K wheels.
The test conditions are exactly the same for all wheels and thus the results are valid and relevant.
10 ticket wheels: 67 (6.7%), 9 in profit zone
Wheel-49N-10T(9) - 80%
Wheel-49N-10T(25) - 95%
Wheel-49N-10T(38) - 82%
Wheel-49N-10T(48) - 110%
Wheel-49N-10T(57) - 77%
Wheel-49N-10T(69) - 90%
Wheel-49N-10T(74) - 72%
Wheel-49N-10T(86) - 97%
Wheel-49N-10T(92) - 97%
Wheel-49N-10T(127) - 72%
Wheel-49N-10T(136) - 97%
Wheel-49N-10T(142) - 72%
Wheel-49N-10T(151) - 70%
Wheel-49N-10T(157) - 102%
Wheel-49N-10T(158) - 70%
Wheel-49N-10T(189) - 75%
Wheel-49N-10T(204) - 80%
Wheel-49N-10T(235) - 77%
Wheel-49N-10T(238) - 90%
Wheel-49N-10T(292) - 75%
Wheel-49N-10T(341) - 92%
Wheel-49N-10T(352) - 80%
Wheel-49N-10T(355) - 70%
Wheel-49N-10T(361) - 72%
Wheel-49N-10T(363) - 70%
Wheel-49N-10T(386) - 75%
Wheel-49N-10T(401) - 85%
Wheel-49N-10T(438) - 72%
Wheel-49N-10T(462) - 102%
Wheel-49N-10T(464) - 87%
Wheel-49N-10T(468) - 87%
Wheel-49N-10T(470) - 90%
Wheel-49N-10T(500) - 70%
Wheel-49N-10T(514) - 135%
Wheel-49N-10T(541) - 72%
Wheel-49N-10T(544) - 72%
Wheel-49N-10T(548) - 90%
Wheel-49N-10T(550) - 90%
Wheel-49N-10T(570) - 72%
Wheel-49N-10T(572) - 75%
Wheel-49N-10T(590) - 75%
Wheel-49N-10T(600) - 70%
Wheel-49N-10T(665) - 102%
Wheel-49N-10T(677) - 114%
Wheel-49N-10T(696) - 80%
Wheel-49N-10T(698) - 77%
Wheel-49N-10T(706) - 92%
Wheel-49N-10T(714) - 72%
Wheel-49N-10T(752) - 80%
Wheel-49N-10T(760) - 102%
Wheel-49N-10T(784) - 70%
Wheel-49N-10T(823) - 70%
Wheel-49N-10T(830) - 70%
Wheel-49N-10T(859) - 70%
Wheel-49N-10T(894) - 72%
Wheel-49N-10T(899) - 75%
Wheel-49N-10T(907) - 92%
Wheel-49N-10T(911) - 87%
Wheel-49N-10T(932) - 75%
Wheel-49N-10T(941) - 75%
Wheel-49N-10T(944) - 72%
Wheel-49N-10T(948) - 105%
Wheel-49N-10T(955) - 70%
Wheel-49N-10T(962) - 70%
Wheel-49N-10T(969) - 70%
Wheel-49N-10T(973) - 87%
Wheel-49N-10T(993) - 105%
---------------------------------------
15 ticket wheels: 37 (3.7%), 1 in profit zone
AS-T15-wheel(18) - 93%
AS-T15-wheel(63) - 75%
AS-T15-wheel(67) - 78%
AS-T15-wheel(68) - 81%
AS-T15-wheel(77) - 73%
AS-T15-wheel(94) - 70%
AS-T15-wheel(112) - 80%
AS-T15-wheel(114) - 88%
AS-T15-wheel(118) - 70%
AS-T15-wheel(120) - 81%
AS-T15-wheel(159) - 81%
AS-T15-wheel(189) - 110%
AS-T15-wheel(202) - 71%
AS-T15-wheel(218) - 83%
AS-T15-wheel(240) - 83%
AS-T15-wheel(241) - 70%
AS-T15-wheel(245) - 71%
AS-T15-wheel(326) - 86%
AS-T15-wheel(343) - 91%
AS-T15-wheel(424) - 85%
AS-T15-wheel(438) - 78%
AS-T15-wheel(468) - 75%
AS-T15-wheel(469) - 73%
AS-T15-wheel(502) - 85%
AS-T15-wheel(604) - 76%
AS-T15-wheel(624) - 70%
AS-T15-wheel(678) - 81%
AS-T15-wheel(696) - 80%
AS-T15-wheel(741) - 71%
AS-T15-wheel(781) - 86%
AS-T15-wheel(790) - 75%
AS-T15-wheel(802) - 78%
AS-T15-wheel(805) - 71%
AS-T15-wheel(852) - 70%
AS-T15-wheel(900) - 76%
AS-T15-wheel(935) - 85%
AS-T15-wheel(960) - 78%
---------------------------------------
30 ticket wheels: 9 (0.9%), none in profit zone
Wheel-49N-30T(70) - 83%
Wheel-49N-30T(131) - 81%
Wheel-49N-30T(252) - 71%
Wheel-49N-30T(269) - 70%
Wheel-49N-30T(282) - 72%
Wheel-49N-30T(522) - 80%
Wheel-49N-30T(641) - 73%
Wheel-49N-30T(864) - 75%
Wheel-49N-30T(941) - 71%
The conclusion is: as wheels grow in size fewer and fewer can meet the threshold. Not only their ROIs are poorer but P/Ls can be budget wreckers. Smaller wheels rule in both financial categories. And all this despite the fact that bigger wheels have greater winning potential. It seems, unfortunately, that the potential does not translate easily into cash.
Thus, there are 2 relationships between wheels and their financials:
- direct: the more numbers in a wheel the better the financials
- inverse: the more tickets in a wheel the poorer the financials
That's exactly opposite to what is offered by covers. Covers are used for few numbers and generate large number of tickets.
In this context wheel covers do not amount to too much, in fact, they can be considered irrelevant. The winning wheels are small and include as many numbers as they can fit, preferably all.
This is reflected in wheel filtering - discard cover, reduce number of tickets and thus improve the financials. But it will work only if only the number of tickets is reduced and the number of numbers remains the same. Watch out for that.
Don't get it wrong. Cover Master, with all its covers, is playable, no question. But it's for those who want to win something - at any cost. And this requires a fat wallet.
For those who don't have such a wallet (including your humble) there are cheaper alternatives. And, as it turns out, there are plenty of them. All outside any covers.
Which leads us to another conclusion that the value of a wheel depends not on its covers but on what it can do beyond covers. I believe, based on past LP post, I'm not the first one to come to such conclusion.
These findings apply also to QPs. When you buy a bunch of tickets you don't just buy numbers. You also buy w wheel selected for you by the LC. There are usually duplicates in numbers. Compare 5 tickets with 30 numbers vs 5 tickets with 25. The former has better financials (due to more numbers). May not appear much of a difference for 1 draw but try in the long term.
It is better to chose your own numbers (whatever the method) and fill all number positions with unique numbers, and use duplicates only when you already have all the numbers but still want to play more tickets.
And that's my statistical take on wheel covers, risks, sizes, potentials, ROIs and P/Ls.
700 light yrs West of Milky Way Galaxy's Center
Playa649 ...Still puttin the Cart B4 da Horse. 
