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JustMaybe

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Apr 8, 2026, 1:52 pm

During the Covid Era and the ensuing Stimulus Checks, there was arguments that the "free money" was driving lottery sales and the massive jackpots that we saw.

Fast forward 2026 - with the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and the Tax incentives - no taxes on over time and tips etc, and with the Tax season almost coming to an end, are we likely to see increased spending on the lottery from the "Tax Refunds"?

It's the first time in 3 years that I have had a tax refund, I am always paying extra taxes to Uncle Sam. I directed 100% of my refunds to retirement accounts - sorry MUSL 🤣

Note: this is a conversation on the influence of "free money" on lottery sales and not a political conversation on OBBB Act and where one stands on the same.

I believe winning the lottery jackpot is a 💯 % factor of luck.

May Fortuna, goddess of chance or lot vindicate me.
Tucker Black

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Apr 8, 2026, 5:17 pm

Probably not. Food and housing are much more expensive now, and those come first.
JustMaybe

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Apr 8, 2026, 5:53 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Tucker Black on Apr 8, 2026
Probably not. Food and housing are much more expensive now, and those come first.

You are totally right, everything is becoming so expensive.

You forgot gas ⛽ - the price of gas is now double due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

I believe winning the lottery jackpot is a 💯 % factor of luck.

May Fortuna, goddess of chance or lot vindicate me.
Tucker Black

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Apr 8, 2026, 6:04 pm

Quote: Originally posted by JustMaybe on Apr 8, 2026
You are totally right, everything is becoming so expensive.

You forgot gas ⛽ - the price of gas is now double due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

I think it's worse than just gasoline. Higher diesel prices affect the cost of everything you buy.

Unlike food (for everyone) and housing (if you rent, and there's property taxes if you own), much of America's gasoline consumption is optional. Biking and public transportation (which I use) use none, and small cars use less than big cars. When I was a kid in the 80's, everyone drove small cars and no one whined about it.

Yesterday I bought four Millionaire for Life tickets. Rather than 4 lines for one drawing, I picked numbers and did four drawings. Nothing yesterday but still three more chances to go. While groceries do cost more, I can spare $20 for a good game. Long odds but not absurd like PB/MM.
CDanaT

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Apr 8, 2026, 6:11 pm

While you folks mention consumables, what I just noticed was the House Ins. increase over the last 5 years. It's doubled for us but the cost of the house sure hasn't. Maybe it's gone up 33 - 40% in value.

Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.
JustMaybe

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Apr 8, 2026, 8:58 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Tucker Black on Apr 8, 2026
I think it's worse than just gasoline. Higher diesel prices affect the cost of everything you buy.

Unlike food (for everyone) and housing (if you rent, and there's property taxes if you own), much of America's gasoline consumption is optional. Biking and public transportation (which I use) use none, and small cars use less than big cars. When I was a kid in the 80's, everyone drove small cars and no one whined about it.

Yesterday I bought four Millionaire for Life tickets. Rather than 4 lines for one drawing, I picked numbers and did four drawings. Nothing yesterday but still three more chances to go. While groceries do cost more, I can spare $20 for a good game. Long odds but not absurd like PB/MM.

Please don't remind me of my Millionaire For Life ticket that I bought yesterday.

I matched zero numbers and won a big $0 🤣🤣

You are right on the size of cars that people drive just for normal errands.

But you know, grown up men love their trucks 🛻, so am not going to start a war that I cannot win by suggesting getting a Nissan Note or the bigger Juke 🤣🤣🤣🤣

Running 🏃🏃🏃🏃🏃for my life 🤣🤣

I believe winning the lottery jackpot is a 💯 % factor of luck.

May Fortuna, goddess of chance or lot vindicate me.
GiveFive

Florida's West Coast
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Apr 9, 2026, 12:06 pm

Quote: Originally posted by CDanaT on Apr 8, 2026
While you folks mention consumables, what I just noticed was the House Ins. increase over the last 5 years. It's doubled for us but the cost of the house sure hasn't. Maybe it's gone up 33 - 40% in value.

And that's IF you can buy a homeowner policy. In Florida that's not all that easy to do. Many big insurance companies won't write a homeowners policy in Florida. Those that do, charge big money and in my estimation will fight any submitted claim tooth and nail rather than pay it.

Then there's the hurricane deductible that must be by Florida law included in each and every homeowners policy. It's a separate deductible from a normal deductible. During hurricane season, June1st to November 30th, if a declared and named hurricane damages your house the deductible is computed by a special formula. That computation can easily create a $40,000 deductible. That means the homeowner is responsible for paying the first $40,000 to fix damage before their insurance company starts paying your claim. How nice. Why even bother to buy homeowners? G5

Play Smart! That's IF there is such a thing as playing smartly!!
RichW

Deckerville, Michigan
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Apr 10, 2026, 5:00 pm
JustMaybe brings up a really good question. The data actually backs it up.

During the stimulus check period (2020-2021), US lottery sales jumped roughly 20% year-over-year. That wasn't just bigger jackpots driving more tickets, the spike in sales started within days of each stimulus deposit hitting bank accounts. The timing was too consistent to be coincidence.

There's a well-documented behavioral economics concept called "mental accounting", people treat money differently depending on where it comes from. A paycheck feels earned, so you budget it carefully. A tax refund or stimulus check feels like a bonus, so you're more willing to take a shot with part of it. That's why lottery sales spike every year during tax refund season (Feb-April), not just during the stimulus era.

To Tucker Black's point though, inflation is eating into that "play money" buffer. When gas and groceries take a bigger slice, even tax refunds get redirected to bills instead of tickets. So the real question is whether the new tax breaks (no tax on overtime, tips, etc.) actually create enough of a surplus that people feel like they have money to play with again.

My guess: it depends on the income bracket. Hourly workers who rely on overtime and tips will feel the difference immediately and some of that will flow into lottery spending. Salaried workers won't notice much.

Either way, if history is any guide, watch the jackpot growth rates over the next few months. If the "free money" effect kicks in, we should see jackpots climbing faster than usual because more tickets are being sold per draw.
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JustMaybe

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Apr 10, 2026, 8:16 pm

Quote: Originally posted by RichW on Apr 10, 2026
JustMaybe brings up a really good question. The data actually backs it up.

During the stimulus check period (2020-2021), US lottery sales jumped roughly 20% year-over-year. That wasn't just bigger jackpots driving more tickets, the spike in sales started within days of each stimulus deposit hitting bank accounts. The timing was too consistent to be coincidence.

There's a well-documented behavioral economics concept called "mental accounting", people treat money differently depending on where it comes from. A paycheck feels earned, so you budget it carefully. A tax refund or stimulus check feels like a bonus, so you're more willing to take a shot with part of it. That's why lottery sales spike every year during tax refund season (Feb-April), not just during the stimulus era.

To Tucker Black's point though, inflation is eating into that "play money" buffer. When gas and groceries take a bigger slice, even tax refunds get redirected to bills instead of tickets. So the real question is whether the new tax breaks (no tax on overtime, tips, etc.) actually create enough of a surplus that people feel like they have money to play with again.

My guess: it depends on the income bracket. Hourly workers who rely on overtime and tips will feel the difference immediately and some of that will flow into lottery spending. Salaried workers won't notice much.

Either way, if history is any guide, watch the jackpot growth rates over the next few months. If the "free money" effect kicks in, we should see jackpots climbing faster than usual because more tickets are being sold per draw.

So many times I fall victim to the "mental accounting" behaviour.

I have my main job and I do some side hustles. I never play the lottery with my main job earnings, I always spend from my side hustle.

I treat the side hustle as extra income and feel comfortable using that to play the lottery. But at the end of the day, it's all earned income and $10 is $10 regardless of the source.

You have very good points. Thank you

I believe winning the lottery jackpot is a 💯 % factor of luck.

May Fortuna, goddess of chance or lot vindicate me.
GiveFive

Florida's West Coast
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Apr 11, 2026, 9:35 am

Quote: Originally posted by JustMaybe on Apr 10, 2026
So many times I fall victim to the "mental accounting" behaviour.

I have my main job and I do some side hustles. I never play the lottery with my main job earnings, I always spend from my side hustle.

I treat the side hustle as extra income and feel comfortable using that to play the lottery. But at the end of the day, it's all earned income and $10 is $10 regardless of the source.

You have very good points. Thank you

I'm a "mental accounting guy" myself.

Last week I won 40 bucks playing a dice game called Left, Right, Center. The Old Fogies that live around here play it at "The Activity Center" once per month. They get a group of maybe 100 people sitting around tables rolling dice trying to win "the pot". Unbelievable how LOUD those fogies start screaming when they start rollin' them bones. From lookin' at 'em, you wouldn't think they had that much life left in 'em. (Not that I aint an Old Fogie myself or nuthin.)

After I won the pot, the very first thing I said to my wife was "Hey! Now I get to buy an extra two Florida Millionaire Raffle tickets this month!" My Social Security check don't allow me to buy more than one Florida Millionaire Raffle ticket. G5

Play Smart! That's IF there is such a thing as playing smartly!!
GiveFive

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Apr 11, 2026, 9:43 am

Quote: Originally posted by GiveFive on Apr 11, 2026
I'm a "mental accounting guy" myself.

Last week I won 40 bucks playing a dice game called Left, Right, Center. The Old Fogies that live around here play it at "The Activity Center" once per month. They get a group of maybe 100 people sitting around tables rolling dice trying to win "the pot". Unbelievable how LOUD those fogies start screaming when they start rollin' them bones. From lookin' at 'em, you wouldn't think they had that much life left in 'em. (Not that I aint an Old Fogie myself or nuthin.)

After I won the pot, the very first thing I said to my wife was "Hey! Now I get to buy an extra two Florida Millionaire Raffle tickets this month!" My Social Security check don't allow me to buy more than one Florida Millionaire Raffle ticket. G5

Just had a thought....

I really do hope I win a million bucks with one of those two extra raffle tickets I bought. That'd really twist some of those old fogies cajones real good if they knew I won a million using THEIR money.

Hell, they couldn't stand it when they saw me puttin' those 40 singles I took outta the pot and put 'em in my pocket. Just think how they'd feel if they heard I put a million bucks in my bank account by using their Left Right Center money. G5

Play Smart! That's IF there is such a thing as playing smartly!!
JustMaybe

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Apr 11, 2026, 8:23 pm

Quote: Originally posted by GiveFive on Apr 11, 2026
I'm a "mental accounting guy" myself.

Last week I won 40 bucks playing a dice game called Left, Right, Center. The Old Fogies that live around here play it at "The Activity Center" once per month. They get a group of maybe 100 people sitting around tables rolling dice trying to win "the pot". Unbelievable how LOUD those fogies start screaming when they start rollin' them bones. From lookin' at 'em, you wouldn't think they had that much life left in 'em. (Not that I aint an Old Fogie myself or nuthin.)

After I won the pot, the very first thing I said to my wife was "Hey! Now I get to buy an extra two Florida Millionaire Raffle tickets this month!" My Social Security check don't allow me to buy more than one Florida Millionaire Raffle ticket. G5

I hope you win the jackpot with the two tickets you bought.

Just make sure the other Old Fogies don't get wind of your win.

I believe winning the lottery jackpot is a 💯 % factor of luck.

May Fortuna, goddess of chance or lot vindicate me.
grwurston

100

Same digits. Different games.

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Apr 11, 2026, 9:55 pm

Quote: Originally posted by GiveFive on Apr 11, 2026
Just had a thought....

I really do hope I win a million bucks with one of those two extra raffle tickets I bought. That'd really twist some of those old fogies cajones real good if they knew I won a million using THEIR money.

Hell, they couldn't stand it when they saw me puttin' those 40 singles I took outta the pot and put 'em in my pocket. Just think how they'd feel if they heard I put a million bucks in my bank account by using their Left Right Center money. G5

This reminded me of an old joke.

How do you get a bunch of old ladies to cuss like crazy?

Have another old lady yell out, BINGO!!

List Pick 3 singles by low sums, high sums. Separate each sum row by consecutive pair and non consecutive pair combos. These 3 pair groups. 14 17 47, 25 28 58, 36 39 69 are in 63 combos. 54 combos do not have them. Which sums do the 3 pair groups appear and not appear? Look at root sum groups 147, 258, 369. Play accordingly.
HoLeeKau

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Apr 13, 2026, 8:41 am

Quote: Originally posted by Tucker Black on Apr 8, 2026
I think it's worse than just gasoline. Higher diesel prices affect the cost of everything you buy.

Unlike food (for everyone) and housing (if you rent, and there's property taxes if you own), much of America's gasoline consumption is optional. Biking and public transportation (which I use) use none, and small cars use less than big cars. When I was a kid in the 80's, everyone drove small cars and no one whined about it.

Yesterday I bought four Millionaire for Life tickets. Rather than 4 lines for one drawing, I picked numbers and did four drawings. Nothing yesterday but still three more chances to go. While groceries do cost more, I can spare $20 for a good game. Long odds but not absurd like PB/MM.

How'd your luck on those tickets play out? I'm not having much luck at all on Millionaire for Life.
Tucker Black

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Apr 13, 2026, 9:53 am

Quote: Originally posted by HoLeeKau on Apr 13, 2026
How'd your luck on those tickets play out? I'm not having much luck at all on Millionaire for Life.

Zero. I think I'll wait a few more days before trying again.

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