Mega Millions and Powerball RacePrev Topic Next Topic

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winoneday

Canada
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April 14, 2014
710 Posts
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Apr 7, 2025, 9:54 am

The Mega Millions and Powerball games are in a race to see who gets the biggest jackpots. Both jackpots are currently at $54 million.

The Powerball jackpots have been growing much faster lately because the game has three draws per week as opposed to the two draws for Mega Millions.

But I predict Mega Millions will prove to have much faster growing jackpots due to the higher ticket price. Most people on this forum are complaining about the higher ticket price and claim they will stop buying tickets. They made the same claim when the ticket price went to $2 but after a short while went back to buying tickets.

In general, there are two types of ticket buyers. First, there is the player that always spends the same amount per draw or per week. They will continue to spend the same amount and just buy fewer Mega Millions tickets each time. Second, there is the player that always buys one ticket each draw or each week. They will continue to buy one ticket each time but will be spending $150% more money each time. There are a lot of the second type of player and therefore the Mega Millions jackpot will grow at a relatively fast rate compared to Powerball.

When deciding which game to play, most people are influenced by the size of the jackpot and not the odds or the ticket price. Therefore, once the Mega Millions jackpot grows larger then the Powerball jackpot, it will continue to grow at a faster rate.

We will see soon enough.

By the way, the most important factor when choosing which game to play is not the ticket price, or the odds or even the jackpot, but the "effective" expected value. That should be the only factor.
DrMiracle

MARYLAND
United States
Member #119,877
December 5, 2011
1,889 Posts
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Apr 7, 2025, 9:14 pm

With five dollars in their pocket, people may skip the eggs—but they won’t skip the dream.

"Listen with the intent to understand, not the intent to reply " - Stephen Covey
winoneday

Canada
Member #154,371
April 14, 2014
710 Posts
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Apr 9, 2025, 8:55 am

The Mega Millions jackpot has taken an early lead and is ahead of the Powerball jackpot by $7 million. Both games have had 4 roll overs of the jackpot.
JustMaybe

us
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January 2, 2023
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Apr 9, 2025, 12:52 pm

Quote: Originally posted by winoneday on Apr 9, 2025
The Mega Millions jackpot has taken an early lead and is ahead of the Powerball jackpot by $7 million. Both games have had 4 roll overs of the jackpot.

PB and MM Summary.

Both Jackpots were at 54M on Sunday.

PB Monday draw.

Winnings paid out - $ 2,371,605.

Current Jackpot - $65M.

MM Tuesday draw.

Winnings paid out - $ 4,327,171.

Current Jackpot - $72M.

MM paid out more than PB in winnings and MM is currently ahead.

The extra PB draw on Wednesday will definitely have an effect on the race.

Will see how it goes by Sunday.

I believe winning the lottery jackpot is a 💯 % factor of luck.

May Fortuna, goddess of chance or lot vindicate me.
winoneday

Canada
Member #154,371
April 14, 2014
710 Posts
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Apr 12, 2025, 9:19 am

The Mega Million jackpot is now $96 million surpassing the Powerball jackpot by $14 million. It is beginning to appear the Mega Millions price increase may prove to be successful. Powerball now has two draws in a row. It has the opportunity to pass Mega Millions.

Despite the large increase in the Mega Millions jackpot, the current jackpot is far off the Mega Millions record jackpot for 5 rolls. The record stands at $148 million. It is much larger than the Powerball 5 roll record of $124 million.
Justing618

Baltimore
United States
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March 26, 2022
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Apr 12, 2025, 2:22 pm

Quote: Originally posted by winoneday on Apr 12, 2025
The Mega Million jackpot is now $96 million surpassing the Powerball jackpot by $14 million. It is beginning to appear the Mega Millions price increase may prove to be successful. Powerball now has two draws in a row. It has the opportunity to pass Mega Millions.

Despite the large increase in the Mega Millions jackpot, the current jackpot is far off the Mega Millions record jackpot for 5 rolls. The record stands at $148 million. It is much larger than the Powerball 5 roll record of $124 million.

Wonder why the rolls are down. Sales? And do you know the dates of the record rolls?
JustMaybe

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January 2, 2023
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Apr 12, 2025, 3:15 pm

Quote: Originally posted by JustMaybe on Apr 9, 2025
PB and MM Summary.

Both Jackpots were at 54M on Sunday.

PB Monday draw.

Winnings paid out - $ 2,371,605.

Current Jackpot - $65M.

MM Tuesday draw.

Winnings paid out - $ 4,327,171.

Current Jackpot - $72M.

MM paid out more than PB in winnings and MM is currently ahead.

The extra PB draw on Wednesday will definitely have an effect on the race.

Will see how it goes by Sunday.

Based on the two draws, MM is ahead of PB both in the jackpot estimate and the winnings paid out.

However, when we add the extra drawing that PB has, then it will most likely tip the scales in favor of PB.

I therefore don't think it's worth it to compare a three game draw and a two game draw, I don't feel that's it's really comparing apples to apples.

Based on that I don't see the need to track the jackpot growth for MM against PB.

It would be more beneficial to track MM and see how the price changes are impacting the jackpot growth.

My thoughts.

I believe winning the lottery jackpot is a 💯 % factor of luck.

May Fortuna, goddess of chance or lot vindicate me.
winoneday

Canada
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April 14, 2014
710 Posts
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Apr 12, 2025, 4:22 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Justing618 on Apr 12, 2025
Wonder why the rolls are down. Sales? And do you know the dates of the record rolls?

The roll records are directly related to sales.
winoneday

Canada
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April 14, 2014
710 Posts
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Apr 12, 2025, 4:25 pm

Quote: Originally posted by JustMaybe on Apr 12, 2025
Based on the two draws, MM is ahead of PB both in the jackpot estimate and the winnings paid out.

However, when we add the extra drawing that PB has, then it will most likely tip the scales in favor of PB.

I therefore don't think it's worth it to compare a three game draw and a two game draw, I don't feel that's it's really comparing apples to apples.

Based on that I don't see the need to track the jackpot growth for MM against PB.

It would be more beneficial to track MM and see how the price changes are impacting the jackpot growth.

My thoughts.

I feel the comparison is relevant. Powerball was ahead when it had 3 draws per week and Mega Millions tickets were $2. But now that Mega Millions tickets are $5, Mega Millions appears to be ahead.

But it is still too early to declare the definite winner in the race for the fastest growing jackpots.
Justing618

Baltimore
United States
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Apr 12, 2025, 4:44 pm

Quote: Originally posted by winoneday on Apr 12, 2025
The roll records are directly related to sales.

Gotcha! So sales are down.... Mabye it was smart that mm raised the prices. Less sales but more money. 🤷
KY Floyd

NY
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October 16, 2005
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Apr 13, 2025, 2:00 am

"I therefore don't think it's worth it to compare a three game draw and a two game draw, I don't feel that's it's really comparing apples to apples. "

IMHO the sensible comparison is by the week. When PB added the 3rd draw the sales for Wednesday and Saturday drawings went down a little bit, but by adding Monday sales they got a modest increase in weekly sales.

"The roll records are directly related to sales. "

And sales are generally down compared to anything farther back than the past year. The 6 draw record (if that's accurate) of $148 million was only 1 year ago, and the jackpot was hit on draw # 20 when it reached $560 million. Way back in 2012, when tickets were only $1 the jackpot for drawing #6 was only $51 million, but it was at $656 million when it was hit on draw #19. The difference in the actual cash was even bigger: $264.4 after 20 drawings at $2 per ticket vs $474 million after 19 drawing at $1 per ticket. That's about 3.5 times as many tickets sold for 19 drawings than for 20 drawings. That general downward trend in sales, nd therefore revenue, is why we've seem the increase in ticket prices and the extra drawing.

"Less sales but more money. "

Which is exactly what they were hoping for. They knew they would sell fewer tickets at $5, but they were hoping that the higher price would offset reduced sales enough to at least maintain revenue, and right now that seems to be happening. What they're really counting on is having more huge jackpots where sales for a single jackpot can bring in as much revenue as the first month of sales after a jackpot win reduces the jackpot to the starting value.
winoneday

Canada
Member #154,371
April 14, 2014
710 Posts
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Apr 16, 2025, 8:30 am

The Powerball jackpot has taken a slight lead with a $113 million jackpot compared to the Mega Millions jackpot of only $112 million. The heavy advertising for the new Mega Millions game may be starting to wear off causing sales to drop off. Also, since the last update, Powerball has had 2 draws versus only 1 draw for Mega Millions.

Both games are well off their respective records. The Mega Millions record jackpot for 6 rolls is $178 million set in the April 19, 2024 draw with a starting jackpot of $20 million.. The Powerball record jackpot for 7 rolls is $168.7 million set way back on September 4, 2013. The Powerball record was set when the game only had 2 draws per week and the starting jackpot was $40 million.
Justing618

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United States
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March 26, 2022
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Apr 16, 2025, 2:44 pm

Quote: Originally posted by KY Floyd on Apr 13, 2025
"I therefore don't think it's worth it to compare a three game draw and a two game draw, I don't feel that's it's really comparing apples to apples. "

IMHO the sensible comparison is by the week. When PB added the 3rd draw the sales for Wednesday and Saturday drawings went down a little bit, but by adding Monday sales they got a modest increase in weekly sales.

"The roll records are directly related to sales. "

And sales are generally down compared to anything farther back than the past year. The 6 draw record (if that's accurate) of $148 million was only 1 year ago, and the jackpot was hit on draw # 20 when it reached $560 million. Way back in 2012, when tickets were only $1 the jackpot for drawing #6 was only $51 million, but it was at $656 million when it was hit on draw #19. The difference in the actual cash was even bigger: $264.4 after 20 drawings at $2 per ticket vs $474 million after 19 drawing at $1 per ticket. That's about 3.5 times as many tickets sold for 19 drawings than for 20 drawings. That general downward trend in sales, nd therefore revenue, is why we've seem the increase in ticket prices and the extra drawing.

"Less sales but more money. "

Which is exactly what they were hoping for. They knew they would sell fewer tickets at $5, but they were hoping that the higher price would offset reduced sales enough to at least maintain revenue, and right now that seems to be happening. What they're really counting on is having more huge jackpots where sales for a single jackpot can bring in as much revenue as the first month of sales after a jackpot win reduces the jackpot to the starting value.

100% makes sence from a buisness standpoint! I still think it's a rip off though . 😂
winoneday

Canada
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April 14, 2014
710 Posts
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Apr 19, 2025, 8:24 am

The race has been won by Powerball. The Mega Millions jackpot reached $126 million and was won - one winning ticket sold in Ohio. Whereas the Powerball jackpot is $131 million.

The Mega Millions jackpot is set at the starting value of $50 million. Since this is the first time the jackpot was been won under the new format, a new record was set. The previous record was $40 million for both games. The Powerball record jackpot for 8 rolls is $208 million set way back on September 7, 2013. The Powerball record was set when the game had 2 draws per week and the starting jackpot was $40 million.
hearsetrax

United States
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May 21, 2007
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Apr 19, 2025, 9:30 am

Quote: Originally posted by winoneday on Apr 19, 2025
The race has been won by Powerball. The Mega Millions jackpot reached $126 million and was won - one winning ticket sold in Ohio. Whereas the Powerball jackpot is $131 million.

The Mega Millions jackpot is set at the starting value of $50 million. Since this is the first time the jackpot was been won under the new format, a new record was set. The previous record was $40 million for both games. The Powerball record jackpot for 8 rolls is $208 million set way back on September 7, 2013. The Powerball record was set when the game had 2 draws per week and the starting jackpot was $40 million.

you need new glasses ... MM was $112 Million and reset to $50 million

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