Mega Millions VS Big GamePrev TopicNext Topic

• Gamma Ray

  

  United States
  Member #180
  April 10, 2002
  62 Posts
  Offline
  Apr 10, 2002, 8:03 am

  ▲▼

  Welfare loss for Big Game Players at Georgia, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey,and Virginia!
  
  Except the ability to have a bigger jackpot
  Odds is higher for all catergories
  % Payouts increase lower than % odds increase
  
  Mathematically, that means the operator have a bigger advantage over players, and player have a bigger expected loss! (Summation Payouts x Odds) (Jackpot*135,145,920 +$175,000*2,649,920 +... VS Jackpot*76,275,360 +$150,000*2,179,296...) Players of Mega Millions will have a bigger expected loss for every dollors they bet
  
  Where's the tricks?
  Increaed balls
  52,52 VS 50,36
  
  Jackpots Odds Change!
  1:52*51*50*49*48*52 VS 1:50*49*48*47*46*36
  
  The only unknown is the % revenue contributed to jackpot
  It will be honest to increase this % to compensate the higher expected loss on players
  
  The administration cost actually goes down with more participation states, why they need to raise the odds that much?
  
  I hope my argument is correct
  Please let me know for any mistakes
  
  Good foutune, everyone
  
  sources for odds:
  http://www.mdlottery.com/prmega.html
  http://www.michigan.gov/lottery/1,1607,7-110-812_813_858---,00.html
• Guest

  United States
  Member #0
  May 31, 2000
  0 Posts
  Offline
  Apr 10, 2002, 12:42 pm

  ▲▼

  Maybe what you're trying to say is that you figured the jackpot level will pay out a higher percentage of prize money than now (or, Mega Millions will return less money per dollar bet in the eight lower tiers vs Big Game).
• Gamma Ray

  

  United States
  Member #180
  April 10, 2002
  62 Posts
  Offline
  Apr 10, 2002, 7:58 pm

  ▲▼

  Let me talk about expected gain on gambling
  
  Expect gain Per Bet
  =Bet x Payout x Odds
  
  For the 5+0 matche:
  
  Biggame Player's Expected Gain
  =$1 x $150,000 x 1 /2,179,296
  =$0.068,829,566 Or 6.88%
  
  Mega Millions Player's Expected Gain
  =$1 x $175,000 x 1 /2,649,920
  =$0.066,039,729 Or 6.66%
  
  The calculation shows there is a welfare loss form players to operator.
  
  To be honest, and have the welfare unchange, Payout
  =0.068,829,566 / (1 /2,649,920)
  =$182,392.85
  
  
  Operator's Expect Gain %
  =1 -Player's Expected Gain %
  
  Operator's Expected $ Gain
  =Player's Bet x Operator Expected Gain %