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Buckeye5 simulation for 03/11/03

Topic closed. 9 replies. Last post 14 years ago by RJOh.

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RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
mid-Ohio
United States
Member #9
March 24, 2001
19894 Posts
Offline
Posted: March 11, 2003, 12:45 pm - IP Logged

I've been running some simulations to see if I would be better off to play the Buckeye5 a few times and spend more money or play regularly and spend $8 to cover enough combinations to include all 37 numbers.  When I've played $8 worth of numbers I have usually matched the odds of a win (1:8) and matched 2 most of the time for $1 and occasionnally matched 3 for $10 for a normal payout of $1 for $8.  When I simulated playing 249 numbers with the same parameters I used to pick my 8 numbers the playoff has been $58-$85 at least for a normal payout of $1-$2 for $6 plus I've had more chances to match 4 for $250 or 5 for $100000.  Today I am running the simulation again and posting it.  I have chosen 249 combinations that have not matched 3 in the last 25 draws and all 37 numbers are used at least 29 times.  I will post the results of this simulation after the drawing.

 11 27 34 36 37    09 18 26 29 30    08 16 21 25 35   
 15 20 23 28 33    02 04 05 12 31    01 06 14 19 22   
 07 10 13 17 24    03 23 29 32 36    17 21 28 30 34   
 01 03 08 09 31    07 12 19 25 27    02 06 10 15 26   
 11 22 24 32 33    05 14 18 20 35    04 13 16 19 32   
 04 06 09 17 37    11 12 16 20 26    02 07 18 33 36   
 10 21 22 29 31    01 05 15 24 27    03 13 14 25 28   
 13 22 26 34 35    08 14 24 29 37    02 11 23 30 35   
 15 16 17 31 36    03 10 12 33 34    05 07 09 28 32   
 01 04 20 25 30    18 19 23 31 37    06 13 20 21 27   
 08 17 26 27 33    09 12 24 35 36    07 08 15 22 30   
 04 10 11 18 28    05 06 16 23 34    05 17 19 25 29   
 02 09 14 21 26    02 03 13 16 37    01 18 23 27 32   
 10 15 20 25 32    01 11 28 29 33    04 07 21 24 35   
 06 08 12 22 36    11 12 13 15 29    09 14 16 27 29   
 06 07 20 24 31    09 11 17 23 25    05 08 10 21 23   
 02 17 18 32 34    16 18 22 25 28    03 18 22 24 27   
 04 14 24 26 36    03 26 27 31 35    19 24 28 34 35   
 03 04 08 20 29    01 07 29 35 37    02 08 27 28 37   
 07 11 14 23 34    14 15 21 33 37    06 10 12 30 32   
 03 05 19 30 33    09 10 20 34 37    14 25 31 32 34   
 03 09 11 15 19    01 02 10 16 36    05 08 13 18 36   
 01 04 12 23 26    04 05 15 22 37    13 17 30 31 33   
 01 12 17 21 32    06 13 25 33 35    19 21 26 30 36   
 03 17 21 25 27    06 10 13 29 34    02 17 20 22 26   
 08 14 32 35 36    04 10 21 27 36    07 10 19 20 22   
 05 09 11 13 16    04 05 11 33 34    04 23 29 30 37   
 05 07 10 18 27    02 06 32 36 37    06 10 16 19 35   
 21 23 25 28 36    03 12 16 21 30    09 17 32 33 36   
 09 12 13 18 37    04 09 13 20 31    02 17 21 29 35   
 03 08 15 18 26    06 07 12 23 37    02 10 24 25 34   
 03 04 16 24 34    05 12 29 30 35    09 20 27 30 33   
 09 21 24 32 34    02 11 14 16 22    03 07 19 32 37   
 06 15 27 28 30    08 10 14 17 18    04 11 14 19 27   
 10 11 12 31 35    06 08 16 26 32    14 16 26 28 33   
 14 23 25 26 29    02 09 16 17 30    01 03 07 15 34   
 10 13 14 19 33    04 17 30 32 35    05 21 24 25 31   
 05 21 27 35 37    01 02 04 21 22    05 11 15 23 26   
 02 15 20 35 36    04 19 22 23 25    09 15 25 36 37   
 12 13 27 28 34    02 11 21 27 33    03 04 09 22 32   
 01 10 14 26 35    12 23 24 27 33    04 12 16 25 33   
 03 12 14 15 36    01 03 13 21 24    02 24 27 31 32   
 01 06 07 13 18    09 22 28 31 34    01 08 10 15 29   
 06 09 25 30 31    07 13 22 23 31    03 06 16 31 33   
 09 12 15 26 34    08 11 17 20 24    21 26 27 28 29   
 01 06 09 29 32    09 13 14 15 24    08 10 11 30 33   
 01 16 18 20 33    02 12 20 23 25    05 24 26 30 34   
 04 08 09 12 30    04 06 10 22 24    05 12 24 32 37   
 04 08 16 18 31    05 15 18 31 32    07 12 18 29 34   
 01 13 14 29 31    05 07 14 30 31    02 03 06 14 23   
 16 19 33 34 36    05 06 14 29 36    11 19 25 30 37   
 05 17 27 31 34    06 09 16 24 28    02 19 20 30 31   
 15 17 22 25 34    13 16 17 18 21    15 16 21 23 29   
 04 06 08 14 33    08 09 19 20 28    08 10 22 28 35   
 01 05 14 23 28    01 03 12 20 27    15 18 28 34 36   
 08 12 19 35 37    07 12 24 28 30    12 20 22 28 29   
 02 07 08 19 26    23 25 32 35 37    01 18 24 25 29   
 08 12 14 16 34    02 12 14 19 29    10 16 17 25 37   
 05 09 15 29 33    03 11 14 21 29    04 06 11 25 36   
 11 14 17 35 37    07 11 18 20 37    13 14 16 20 23   
 07 14 15 16 35    16 22 26 36 37    20 22 31 32 36   
 02 03 21 28 31    02 03 07 09 25    03 06 26 28 36   
 02 05 19 28 36    14 24 30 33 35    20 25 29 31 33   
 01 11 13 17 22    09 14 18 19 34    07 17 29 30 36   
 05 06 26 31 37    07 10 12 21 26    03 08 17 23 37   
 02 03 04 26 33    02 08 09 23 29    11 16 19 24 31   
 01 22 27 31 37    05 10 13 15 28    06 15 17 19 24   
 03 20 22 23 34    07 11 17 19 21    02 08 22 25 32   
 04 07 19 28 29    01 12 25 34 36    02 10 18 30 37   
 17 20 21 31 37    08 09 21 22 37    01 03 19 25 35   
 05 07 13 33 37    06 18 22 29 37    04 05 09 23 36   
 04 15 21 28 32    06 18 23 24 36    06 18 26 27 34   
 03 10 18 32 35    03 16 17 19 20    21 23 30 32 33   
 04 08 11 32 37    06 13 19 31 36    03 05 08 34 35   
 12 15 18 21 22    03 05 11 22 36    04 05 08 24 28   
 04 10 15 19 31    05 06 22 28 33    07 08 28 31 33   
 08 11 12 18 23    07 20 25 28 34    06 15 32 34 35   
 04 10 13 26 30    17 19 23 27 36    10 24 28 31 36   
 09 15 21 30 35    22 23 26 27 30    10 19 23 32 34   
 15 20 24 26 29    10 11 22 25 26    11 13 24 25 27   
 16 17 24 26 35    13 18 26 32 33    07 20 27 29 32   
 11 20 28 32 35    01 11 16 27 30    02 13 18 27 35   
 07 20 26 33 35    01 17 18 28 35    01 07 09 10 30

RJOh   

    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
    mid-Ohio
    United States
    Member #9
    March 24, 2001
    19894 Posts
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    Posted: March 11, 2003, 7:50 pm - IP Logged

    Buckeye5 for 03/11/03 was 1-2-11-18-37  which hadn't matched 3 for 257 drawings since 05/14/02.
    The above list contained 30 match 2's and 2 match 3's and would have paid $50 for a $249.

    RJOh

     

      Avatar

      United States
      Member #434
      June 30, 2002
      675 Posts
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      Posted: March 13, 2003, 6:18 am - IP Logged

      RJOh,

      I enjoyed your analysis. Do it again sometime.

        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
        mid-Ohio
        United States
        Member #9
        March 24, 2001
        19894 Posts
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        Posted: March 23, 2003, 11:43 am - IP Logged

        For anyone interested, I have checked the 249 numbers with all the additional drawings since the post and these are the results:

        03/11|| 1-2-11-18-37 matched 2x30,3x2 paid $50
        03/12|| 4-13-28-30-35 matched 2x28, 3x2, paid $48
        03/13|| 12-13-19-25-35 matched 2x24, 3x4, paid $64
        03/14|| 9-19-27-33-36 matched 2x21, 3x4, paid $61
        03/15|| 9-12-24-28-37 matched 2x21, 3x5, paid $71
        03/17|| 10-13-17-19-33 matched 2x27, 3x2,4x1, paid $307
        03/18|| 3-14-15-19-32 matched 2x29, 3x3, paid $59
        03/19|| 5-6-10-14-22 matched 2x26, 3x4, paid $66
        03/20|| 1-7-11-14-18 matched 2x29, 3x3, paid $59
        03/21|| 6-9-18-22-36 matched 2x33, 3x3, paid $63
        03/22|| 6-9-14-26-36 matched 2x32, 3x4, paid $72

        With a 5/37 lottery that pays for a match 2, the odds of winning a prize are 1:7.9 so one can expect an aveage of 31.3 winning tickets per draws for the 249 numbers.  I think I may have found a factor that will decrease those odds and will apply it in future simulations.  Hopefully that factor may help me when I play Ohio649P this wednesday.  Ohio649P and Megamillions both have a $15M jackpot this week.

        RJOh


          United States
          Member #89
          January 18, 2002
          2092 Posts
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          Posted: March 23, 2003, 4:17 pm - IP Logged

          RJOh,

          you have been busy and have done a lot of midnight oil burning. I applaud your hard work but I do suggest a break once in a while. When a person gets too close to the thing that's being worked on missing fine points can be lost real easily and very nerve wracking!

            Just being a friend not nosey!

          Teufellj

            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
            mid-Ohio
            United States
            Member #9
            March 24, 2001
            19894 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: March 23, 2003, 8:03 pm - IP Logged

            Teufellj,

            It really doen't take a lot of effort to come up with such information if you have an updated data files and you have written a routine to come up with similar information in the past.  For example my Buckeye5 drawing file now has 2246 records dating back to 04/06/93.  Again, with a 5/37 game that considers a match 2 as a prize, the odds of winning a prize are 1:7.9 per number and when one compare each drawing with the other drawings in the file one should expect an aveage of 281.95  wins  per draw in addition to it matching 5.

            I wrote this routine 2yrs ago for 500 records and revised it to handle 2300 records which took about 20 minutes.  It is written in GWBasic so it's slow, but once I type in the parameters(data file name and number of records to load) the computer does the rest. I come back in 20 minutes and read the results.  These are some of the results:

            File name:buckeye5
            matched  0: ave =1036 (933-1112)
            matched  1: ave = 927 (853-1023)
            matched  2: ave = 256 (204-314) 
            matched  3: ave = 26 (12-45)
            matched  4: ave = 1 (0-4)
            column 1: 1-29
            column 2: 2-33
            column 3: 3-35
            column 4: 6-36
            column 5: 10-37
            winnining occurances: ave = 282, median = 288

            I won't bore with all the information, but I did noticed that most winning numbers seem to hit more than the calculated amount and I might use that fact when picking my numbers in the future.

            When you write a routine to get information from your files and you save it, you only have to do it once.  Later if the file change or get larger or it is a different lottery, it no work to come up with a rework of the same information.

            RJOh

             


              United States
              Member #89
              January 18, 2002
              2092 Posts
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              Posted: March 23, 2003, 9:38 pm - IP Logged

              RJOh, I know where you are coming from and no impunities were sent at least not on purpose, what I was attempting to relate is that no matter the program or thing, items especially numbers, tend to get dyslectic when the mind is pushed. Enough said about it.

              Does your pogram reflect any kind of innermatrix patterns that you are aware of as in digit relationships or as I was taught in cryptology, this equals that only when such and such happens but not if it happens on a certain day, week, hour or year and you are left-handed? I'm just funnin' on some of this banter but I believe you get the idea, yes?

              Teufellj

                RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                mid-Ohio
                United States
                Member #9
                March 24, 2001
                19894 Posts
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                Posted: March 24, 2003, 10:03 am - IP Logged

                Teufellj, I've never studied cryptology and I don't know the difference between an innermatrix pattern and a jack in the box.  I sum up the occurances of different numbers and do some simple math.  I leave the sophisticated stuff to the professionals.

                RJOh


                  United States
                  Member #89
                  January 18, 2002
                  2092 Posts
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                  Posted: March 24, 2003, 8:26 pm - IP Logged

                  RJOh,

                  I'm not doing a very good job of saying "Hello, how are you, got any new thoughts on these beastly numbers," am I?

                   

                  Teufellj

                    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                    mid-Ohio
                    United States
                    Member #9
                    March 24, 2001
                    19894 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: March 26, 2003, 12:44 pm - IP Logged

                    Teufellj,
                    I've posted all my thoughts (new and old).  Have you checked out everett's posts? He also posted a Buckeye5 simulation and some numbers for other pick5 games, he may have some thoughts to share .  Now that the Ohio649P is $15M, I'll be picking numbers for that game.

                    RJOh