Welcome Guest
You last visited December 11, 2016, 4:50 am
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

# Basics

Topic closed. 23 replies. Last post 14 years ago by Clipper.

 Page 1 of 2
South Carolina
United States
Member #491
July 16, 2002
837 Posts
Offline
 Posted: May 2, 2003, 6:16 pm - IP Logged

Here's a nice little experiment. If predicting the powerball drawing is so easy, this should be a snap. Try predicting the next coin flip. Flip a coin 100 times and using past data keep flipping and predict every tenth flip. To make thing easier, here is a online coin flipper.

Coin Flipper

Okay, now I believe you can predict lottery numbers

South Carolina
United States
Member #491
July 16, 2002
837 Posts
Offline
 Posted: May 2, 2003, 6:21 pm - IP Logged

Here's some other probability experiments.

Experiments

Okay, now I believe you can predict lottery numbers

Miami,FL
United States
Member #760
October 7, 2002
267 Posts
Offline
 Posted: May 2, 2003, 8:37 pm - IP Logged

Nobody said predicting PowerBall or any Pick-6 Lottery

game for that matter is easy.

East Jordan, MI
United States
Member #2
June 1, 2001
675 Posts
Offline
 Posted: May 3, 2003, 7:26 am - IP Logged

Thomas,

Since you brought up the subject of coin tosses:

http://mathforum.com/library/drmath/view/56660.html

Pay particular attention to the term "conditional probability".

...../George

South Carolina
United States
Member #491
July 16, 2002
837 Posts
Offline
 Posted: May 3, 2003, 7:57 am - IP Logged

I understand your point. You are saying that in a pick 3 drawing, where the numbers drawn are 1-2-3, that in the next drawing the probabililty of the numbers being 1-2-3 are less than the probability of the numbers being anything else. Correct?

Okay, now I believe you can predict lottery numbers

East Jordan, MI
United States
Member #2
June 1, 2001
675 Posts
Offline
 Posted: May 3, 2003, 8:07 am - IP Logged

Basically, Yes.  This is where the usefulness of past draws, drawfiles, are utilized.

It is the reverse logic that I spoke of in a previous thread.

http://search.msn.com/results.aspx?srch=104&FORM=AS4&q=conditional+probability

South Carolina
United States
Member #491
July 16, 2002
837 Posts
Offline
 Posted: May 3, 2003, 8:42 am - IP Logged

But there must be more to it than that. The probability for each drawing is still 1:1000. The probability of a set of drawings may be different. But elimimating 1-2-3 stills leaves 999 other numbers. It would be easier just to use the three positions, but you don't bet on that, you bet on all three.

Okay, now I believe you can predict lottery numbers

East Jordan, MI
United States
Member #2
June 1, 2001
675 Posts
Offline
 Posted: May 3, 2003, 9:57 am - IP Logged

Numbers are made up of three and four digits/balls, pulled from three and four bins respectively.  With each position having it's own independent Mechanical Bias.

Where do you get that eliminating 1-2-3 leaves you 999 other numbers?

Eliminating these digits in each respective position leaves you 729 other numbers, NOT 999.

Come on Thomas, work with me here.

People don't bet on numbers, they never have.  They bet on positions.  If they bet on numbers the lottery officials would be dropping 1,000 and 10,000 balls into one huge bin for the pick-3 and pick-4.  The lottery officials would pick one ball and that would be the winning number.

Like wise think of the first possible Mega-Millions combination as this:

01-02-03-04-05 | 01 Or;

010203040501 = Six Positions

South Carolina
United States
Member #491
July 16, 2002
837 Posts
Offline
 Posted: May 3, 2003, 10:21 am - IP Logged

Didn't you say in a previous post that there is very little mechanical bias. With no mechanical bias what would it matter if each position has a different container?

Okay, now I believe you can predict lottery numbers

East Jordan, MI
United States
Member #2
June 1, 2001
675 Posts
Offline
 Posted: May 3, 2003, 12:31 pm - IP Logged

So why are you now mixing apples and oranges?

I said that in the bigger games there exists very little Mechanical Bias, if any.  You took my comment out of context.

If there is Mechanical Bias, however slight, my system will find it.  If it cannot find Mechanical Bias, then it relies on conditional and normal probability ie; Natural Bias.

South Carolina
United States
Member #491
July 16, 2002
837 Posts
Offline
 Posted: May 3, 2003, 1:22 pm - IP Logged

The reason I started coming here was to see if there was a way to get an advantage. I am just questioning your statements. The Pick 3 mechanics are minimized just like the bigger games. Even a slight mechanical bias would not reduce the odds enough to make a difference. Especially in the bigger games. Even if you were able to reduce the powerball odds to half, you still would have to come up with 60 million bucks to take advantage of it. How much are the odds reduced using your system?

Okay, now I believe you can predict lottery numbers

East Jordan, MI
United States
Member #2
June 1, 2001
675 Posts
Offline
 Posted: May 3, 2003, 2:25 pm - IP Logged

Thomas,

With Millions and Millions of dollars at stake in one game.  How much of an operating budget do you think they have for Powerball or Mega-Millions?

Now compare that operating budget on a state-by-state basis for the pick-3 and pick-4.

I'm sure that you will find the officials at PBall/Mega-Millions Central have a LOT more money to invest in new ball sets, machines, analysis etc. etc.  All in an attempt to keep the game non-biased.

My software loves a truly random game.  Using conditional probability is what it does best.  It looks for a Mechanical Bias as an afterthought.

How much are the odds reduced in my system?  I can't say for sure in PBall or the Mega-Millions just yet.  Only because the system has not been programmed and tested.

In the pick-3 and pick-4 games, I routinely beat the house edge.

Granted the following screenshot is after the fact, but remember that I am only using three filters.  In this particular one, The sum filter had barely raised the hit ratio.  About 99% of the hit ratio was achieved by just using the Gaussian and Multiple Permutation Filters.

http://www.dreamwater.net/biz/sedertree/screenshot3.jpg

You will have to copy and paste this link to your browser.

South Carolina
United States
Member #491
July 16, 2002
837 Posts
Offline
 Posted: May 3, 2003, 3:21 pm - IP Logged

Forgive me if I think your opinion may be a little bias. The programers of these lottery systems do seem to have a lot more success than the average player. Max payout for the pick 3 is \$500 for a straight. If I bought one ticket and won \$500 using my "count the hairs on my head" system, for the next 500 days I could say my system beats the house edge. How much are the odds reduced in your pick 3 software?

By the way, most lotteries numbers are drawn by little rubber balls, How would your system change if they used pictures of fruit instead of numbers.

Okay, now I believe you can predict lottery numbers

East Jordan, MI
United States
Member #2
June 1, 2001
675 Posts
Offline
 Posted: May 3, 2003, 3:43 pm - IP Logged

How much are the odds reduced in my pick 3 software?

http://www.dreamwater.net/biz/sedertree/screenshot1.jpg

As for "fruit instead of numbers".  As long as there are a finite set of fruit and they are drawn by position.  The results would be the same.

Erie, Pa Dallas Tx
United States
Member #588
August 23, 2002
1124 Posts
Offline
 Posted: May 3, 2003, 3:53 pm - IP Logged

Thursday at work I walked by a concrete truck that had 471 written on the front bumper in paint stick. This weekend my grandaughter  makes her First Holy Communion. Her birthday is 4/17. I said that must be an omen. So I started playing 471 and it came out Friday midday. What do you think the odds of that happening are?

"May the next number out be yours"

Love #'s-417, 117, 820

Pick

 Page 1 of 2