Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited December 11, 2016, 4:50 am
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

Basics

Topic closed. 23 replies. Last post 14 years ago by Clipper.

Page 1 of 2
PrintE-mailLink
Thomas Covenant's avatar - money
South Carolina
United States
Member #491
July 16, 2002
837 Posts
Offline
Posted: May 2, 2003, 6:16 pm - IP Logged

Here's a nice little experiment. If predicting the powerball drawing is so easy, this should be a snap. Try predicting the next coin flip. Flip a coin 100 times and using past data keep flipping and predict every tenth flip. To make thing easier, here is a online coin flipper.



Coin Flipper


Okay, now I believe you can predict lottery numbers

    Thomas Covenant's avatar - money
    South Carolina
    United States
    Member #491
    July 16, 2002
    837 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: May 2, 2003, 6:21 pm - IP Logged

    Here's some other probability experiments.



    Experiments


    Okay, now I believe you can predict lottery numbers

      Lottowiz34's avatar - spider
      Miami,FL
      United States
      Member #760
      October 7, 2002
      267 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: May 2, 2003, 8:37 pm - IP Logged

      Nobody said predicting PowerBall or any Pick-6 Lottery

      game for that matter is easy.

        Avatar
        East Jordan, MI
        United States
        Member #2
        June 1, 2001
        675 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: May 3, 2003, 7:26 am - IP Logged

        Thomas,

        Since you brought up the subject of coin tosses:

        http://mathforum.com/library/drmath/view/56660.html

        Pay particular attention to the term "conditional probability".

        ...../George

          Thomas Covenant's avatar - money
          South Carolina
          United States
          Member #491
          July 16, 2002
          837 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: May 3, 2003, 7:57 am - IP Logged

          I understand your point. You are saying that in a pick 3 drawing, where the numbers drawn are 1-2-3, that in the next drawing the probabililty of the numbers being 1-2-3 are less than the probability of the numbers being anything else. Correct?


          Okay, now I believe you can predict lottery numbers

            Avatar
            East Jordan, MI
            United States
            Member #2
            June 1, 2001
            675 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: May 3, 2003, 8:07 am - IP Logged

            Basically, Yes.  This is where the usefulness of past draws, drawfiles, are utilized.

            It is the reverse logic that I spoke of in a previous thread.

            Here are some more links on the subject:  Happy Reading.

            http://search.msn.com/results.aspx?srch=104&FORM=AS4&q=conditional+probability

              Thomas Covenant's avatar - money
              South Carolina
              United States
              Member #491
              July 16, 2002
              837 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: May 3, 2003, 8:42 am - IP Logged

              But there must be more to it than that. The probability for each drawing is still 1:1000. The probability of a set of drawings may be different. But elimimating 1-2-3 stills leaves 999 other numbers. It would be easier just to use the three positions, but you don't bet on that, you bet on all three.


              Okay, now I believe you can predict lottery numbers

                Avatar
                East Jordan, MI
                United States
                Member #2
                June 1, 2001
                675 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: May 3, 2003, 9:57 am - IP Logged

                Numbers are made up of three and four digits/balls, pulled from three and four bins respectively.  With each position having it's own independent Mechanical Bias.

                Where do you get that eliminating 1-2-3 leaves you 999 other numbers?

                Eliminating these digits in each respective position leaves you 729 other numbers, NOT 999.

                Come on Thomas, work with me here.

                People don't bet on numbers, they never have.  They bet on positions.  If they bet on numbers the lottery officials would be dropping 1,000 and 10,000 balls into one huge bin for the pick-3 and pick-4.  The lottery officials would pick one ball and that would be the winning number.

                Like wise think of the first possible Mega-Millions combination as this:

                01-02-03-04-05 | 01 Or;

                010203040501 = Six Positions

                  Thomas Covenant's avatar - money
                  South Carolina
                  United States
                  Member #491
                  July 16, 2002
                  837 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: May 3, 2003, 10:21 am - IP Logged

                  Didn't you say in a previous post that there is very little mechanical bias. With no mechanical bias what would it matter if each position has a different container?


                  Okay, now I believe you can predict lottery numbers

                    Avatar
                    East Jordan, MI
                    United States
                    Member #2
                    June 1, 2001
                    675 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: May 3, 2003, 12:31 pm - IP Logged

                    So why are you now mixing apples and oranges?

                    I said that in the bigger games there exists very little Mechanical Bias, if any.  You took my comment out of context.

                    If there is Mechanical Bias, however slight, my system will find it.  If it cannot find Mechanical Bias, then it relies on conditional and normal probability ie; Natural Bias.

                      Thomas Covenant's avatar - money
                      South Carolina
                      United States
                      Member #491
                      July 16, 2002
                      837 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: May 3, 2003, 1:22 pm - IP Logged

                      The reason I started coming here was to see if there was a way to get an advantage. I am just questioning your statements. The Pick 3 mechanics are minimized just like the bigger games. Even a slight mechanical bias would not reduce the odds enough to make a difference. Especially in the bigger games. Even if you were able to reduce the powerball odds to half, you still would have to come up with 60 million bucks to take advantage of it. How much are the odds reduced using your system?


                      Okay, now I believe you can predict lottery numbers

                        Avatar
                        East Jordan, MI
                        United States
                        Member #2
                        June 1, 2001
                        675 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: May 3, 2003, 2:25 pm - IP Logged

                        Thomas,

                        With Millions and Millions of dollars at stake in one game.  How much of an operating budget do you think they have for Powerball or Mega-Millions?

                        Now compare that operating budget on a state-by-state basis for the pick-3 and pick-4.

                        I'm sure that you will find the officials at PBall/Mega-Millions Central have a LOT more money to invest in new ball sets, machines, analysis etc. etc.  All in an attempt to keep the game non-biased.

                        My software loves a truly random game.  Using conditional probability is what it does best.  It looks for a Mechanical Bias as an afterthought.

                        How much are the odds reduced in my system?  I can't say for sure in PBall or the Mega-Millions just yet.  Only because the system has not been programmed and tested.

                        In the pick-3 and pick-4 games, I routinely beat the house edge.

                        Granted the following screenshot is after the fact, but remember that I am only using three filters.  In this particular one, The sum filter had barely raised the hit ratio.  About 99% of the hit ratio was achieved by just using the Gaussian and Multiple Permutation Filters.

                        http://www.dreamwater.net/biz/sedertree/screenshot3.jpg

                        You will have to copy and paste this link to your browser.

                          Thomas Covenant's avatar - money
                          South Carolina
                          United States
                          Member #491
                          July 16, 2002
                          837 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: May 3, 2003, 3:21 pm - IP Logged

                          Forgive me if I think your opinion may be a little bias. The programers of these lottery systems do seem to have a lot more success than the average player. Max payout for the pick 3 is $500 for a straight. If I bought one ticket and won $500 using my "count the hairs on my head" system, for the next 500 days I could say my system beats the house edge. How much are the odds reduced in your pick 3 software?



                          By the way, most lotteries numbers are drawn by little rubber balls, How would your system change if they used pictures of fruit instead of numbers.


                          Okay, now I believe you can predict lottery numbers

                            Avatar
                            East Jordan, MI
                            United States
                            Member #2
                            June 1, 2001
                            675 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: May 3, 2003, 3:43 pm - IP Logged

                            How much are the odds reduced in my pick 3 software?

                            http://www.dreamwater.net/biz/sedertree/screenshot1.jpg

                            As for beating the odds, please see the following threads:

                            http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/68183

                            http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/68145

                            As for "fruit instead of numbers".  As long as there are a finite set of fruit and they are drawn by position.  The results would be the same.

                              Avatar
                              Erie, Pa Dallas Tx
                              United States
                              Member #588
                              August 23, 2002
                              1124 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: May 3, 2003, 3:53 pm - IP Logged

                              Thursday at work I walked by a concrete truck that had 471 written on the front bumper in paint stick. This weekend my grandaughter  makes her First Holy Communion. Her birthday is 4/17. I said that must be an omen. So I started playing 471 and it came out Friday midday. What do you think the odds of that happening are?

                              "May the next number out be yours"

                               Love #'s-417, 117, 820


                               Pick