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Optimum # of Previous Draws... ??

Topic closed. 12 replies. Last post 13 years ago by hypersoniq.

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hypersoniq's avatar - 8ball
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Posted: June 19, 2003, 6:11 pm - IP Logged

There are almost as many theories on how many past draws to utilize as there are forums on the 'net... my question is this (2 part)...

How many past draws should you use for the MUSL Powerball... and why use that many?(the more math in the answer the better :-)  )?

(p.s. please no negativity from the "previous draws are irrelevant" contingent or a rehash of the "Annuity vs. Cash" Debate... Why search for anything other than the winning combo? and I WOULD take the cash ;-)  )


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    Posted: June 19, 2003, 6:37 pm - IP Logged
    H:

    I used to deliver a weekly lottery magazine to stores; unfortunately, the company went out of business 18 months ago. Personally, I don't "track" the numbers.

    As for "cash V annuity" if you're playing a MUSL game you don't have to worry about what to choose, unless you hit PB, or "Hot Lotto". (If you play   Stupid-6, of course, you still have to choose when you play; one reason Super-6 has to go.)

      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
      mid-Ohio
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      Posted: June 19, 2003, 11:40 pm - IP Logged

      You don't need any fancy math for the answer to your questions.  You can count the past drawings and you will see for the last 73 drawings(since Powerball changed) all five numbers in the core combinations had appeared in the previous 6-47 drawings with most of them between 12-31.  It really depends on the amount of numbers you wish to put in the mix.

      RJOh

        hypersoniq's avatar - 8ball
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        Posted: June 21, 2003, 2:30 pm - IP Logged

        Thanks, I'll have to check into that... For tonight's P-Ball drawing, I adjusted from last73 to last10. I'm trying to work towards a more accurate guess (right now I pick 2 lines for the next draw, would like to get it down to 1). I'm tired of wasting money on a handful of losing tickets. I am fine tuning my Excel spreadsheet the rest of this month so I can take my own "Powerball Challenge"...

        For the month of July, I'm only going to buy 2 tickets (one line each) for each powerball drawing... One that's MY pick, and one QP... then, in august and thereafter, I only play ONE ticket... whichever performs better throughout July... no more 4 to 6 bucks per drawing for me.

          Thomas Covenant's avatar - money
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          Posted: June 21, 2003, 7:15 pm - IP Logged

          Let's compare the number of possible powerball combinations to a swimming pool. Take one drop of water out of the pool. That's your one ticket. Now take two drops of water out. You have now doubled the amount of water you have. Take 100 drops of water out. You now have 100 times the amount of water.WOW! But now compare it to the amount of water still in the pool. Doesn't seem like you have much water now. Same with the tickets. Save your money, just buy one per drawing.


          Okay, now I believe you can predict lottery numbers

            visiondude's avatar - eye3logo
            light on my feet
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            Posted: June 21, 2003, 7:57 pm - IP Logged

            FYI: thomas covenant is NOT a paid card carrying member of visiondude quick pick international.



            he has a mind of his own (lol).



            VDQPLS

                        "i am .........."meant to"       

            P.S.,  that RJoH  is a stand up guy.  thanks,  vision

                     until further notice,  it's  france everyday

              RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
              mid-Ohio
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              Posted: June 21, 2003, 8:26 pm - IP Logged

              Look at it this way T.C.,
              Nobody can afford to empty the whole pool, so why try?  The MUSL is only going to take one drop out of the pool, the player just have to come close or match that drop. With over 120M drops, you going to have to be lucky to come close no matter how many drops you select, but there is hope because there are more than 1.7M drops that are close enough to pay back 3x or more the cost of one drop.
              RJOh

                RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                Posted: June 21, 2003, 8:40 pm - IP Logged

                To Hypersonig,

                This data below in from my RGN which analize the file to help me pick parameters for picking my numbers, it shows the distributions of the numbers of previous draws that contained all five of the numbers.




                  FILE:POWRBALL    73 rec.      ave.gap  10  8  8  9  COVERAGE= 100%
                  PREVIOUS DRAWS THAT CONTAINED 5 NUMBERS OF THE 5 DURING THE 73 DRAWS

                     1 = 0      13 = 2      25 = 4        37 = 0      49 = 0      9
                     2 = 0      14 = 2      26 = 1        38 = 1      50 = 0      22
                     3 = 0      15 = 3      27 = 0        39 = 0      51 = 0      16
                     4 = 0      16 = 4      28 = 1        40 = 2      52 = 0    * 51
                     5 = 0      17 = 3      29 = 1        41 = 0      53 = 0           
                     6 = 1      18 = 1      30 = 3        42 = 0      54 = 0    MX= 47
                     7 = 1      19 = 2      31 = 3        43 = 0      55 = 0
                     8 = 2      20 = 2      32 = 0        44 = 0      56 = 0
                     9 = 1      21 = 0      33 = 0        45 = 0      57 = 0
                    10 = 0      22 = 0      34 = 1        46 = 0      58 = 0
                    11 = 1      23 = 3      35 = 1        47 = 1      59 = 0
                    12 = 3      24 = 0      36 = 1        48 = 0      60 = 0

                 COMB SIZE = 5  AVE GAP = 9 ( 1 - 39 ) NUMBERS = 53  AVE SPLIT = 3 / 0
                 SUM = 134 ( 32 - 199 )  RANGE = 36 ( 8 - 52 )  OD/EV= 171 / 194
                  0 = 3200  0  1 = 1724  0  2 = 312  0  3 = 20  0  4 = 0  0
                  AVE  0 = 44  1 = 24    2 = 4    3 = 0    4 = 0
                  0= 36 TO 53  1= 16 TO 32  2= 0 TO 7  3= 0 TO 2  4= 0 TO 0
                 

                                      HIT ANY KEY TO CONTINUE

                RJOh
                 

                  visiondude's avatar - eye3logo
                  light on my feet
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                  Posted: June 21, 2003, 9:28 pm - IP Logged

                  man you guys are good at math.

                              "i am .........."meant to"       

                  P.S.,  that RJoH  is a stand up guy.  thanks,  vision

                           until further notice,  it's  france everyday

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                    Posted: June 21, 2003, 10:03 pm - IP Logged

                    RJOH, have you ever won anything by doing all that? What program did you use or is it just paper ?

                      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                      mid-Ohio
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                      Posted: June 21, 2003, 10:44 pm - IP Logged

                      To Kristin,

                      The answer is NO, but I did get luckly last year and match 5 of 6 in OhioSuperLoto. That RNG is a program that I wroted using GWBasic, I just can't get into Visual Basic because I already know GWBasic.  Every time someone mention an idea, if I like it, I add a routine to search the file for that information.  I added that routine about 3 weeks ago, so I haven't had a chance to use it much. I have routines that get me a total of the different sums, ranges, gaps, matches(1-4), numbers in different postions and etc. I don't know if it matters, but I like to know that so I can generate my numbers accordingly.  The program is written for 5,6,5+1 and 6+1 numbers games up to 60 numbers and I store all my lottery data in a similar file format,so I can generate that information for any lottery that I play.  It only takes about a few seconds for most files, but Buckeye5 file has over 2300 drawings so it takes a minute or so for it.  One I've added the routine, I never have to do it by hand again.

                      RJOh

                        hypersoniq's avatar - 8ball
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                        Posted: June 22, 2003, 6:03 am - IP Logged

                        played 14 lines this week (with power play)... had quite a few 1 or 2 numbers... matched the Powerball on 2 (cost $28 .... winnings (with power play)... $30  it was a good week ;-)    )

                          hypersoniq's avatar - 8ball
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                          Posted: June 23, 2003, 5:54 pm - IP Logged

                          so far it looks like the following #of previous draws works better than others (tried from 2 thru 26) [in sorted order]....

                          White ball 1 = 12 draws

                          White ball 2 = 11 draws

                          White ball 3 = 5 draws

                          White ball 4 = 10 draws

                          White ball 5 = 10 draws

                          Power Ball = 6 draws

                          Applying an error correction constant of (3-2-12-2-3---2)

                          in 74 draws, it catches 40 of 444 drawn numbers an $24 in lower tier prizes... still would have cost $50 more than it returned, but I think I'm on the right track ;-)