Quote: Originally posted by Loops on October 01, 2003
(from http://www.saliu.com/probability.html)
~~~~~Probability starts with logic. There is a set of N elements. We can define a sub-set of n favorable elements, where n is less than or equal to N. Probability is defined as the rapport of the favorable cases over total cases, or calculated as:
n
p = -----
N
~~~~~~~~~~~~~
n would equal your tickets purchased, provided they're of different combinations, and N would equal the total number of combinations for the drawing (eg 120,526,770 for powerball). So yes, going from one ticket to two tickets essentially doubles your chances to win.
There is a set of N elements. We can define a sub-set of n favorable elements, where n is less than or equal to N. There is only ONE favorable outcome... winning, they only draw once.
Probability is defined as the rapport of the favorable cases over total cases, or calculated as:
n for lottery, must equal 1
p = -----
N
n would equal your tickets purchased, provided they're of different combinations(This is where the "Gambler's Fallacy" comes into play... there is only ONE outcome... this could only be more than one if there were a second, third, fourth... etc... dvent... like picking a Jack from a deck of cards (there are 4)), and N would equal the total number of combinations for the drawing (eg 120,526,770 for powerball). So yes, going from one ticket to two tickets essentially doubles your chances to win. No, buy 5 tickets, each ticket has the same odds 1:129,526,770. If you want to use the probability formula, fine, but remember that n can not equal anything other than 1, as there is only one drawing. In the pick 3 games, overall odds are 1:1000, but if you think about it... you are betting on 3 separate 1:10 dvents, match all 3 in the same order and get $500 for $1 (in PA) .. match the 3 but out of order, get $80 for the same $1... this is because now n can be something other than 1... a "straight" hit means n=1, but in a "Box" hit, n=6... in this case you can genuinely manipulate the fraction, but never enough to beat the house odds.