Predicting 24 of 49 works how often?Prev Topic Next Topic

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6 winning numbers among 24 picked from 49 is expected?

Zero times

[ 2 ]

[ 8.7% ]

1 time in 2 tries

[ 0 ]

[ 0.0% ]

1 time in 24 tries

[ 2 ]

[ 8.7% ]

1 time in 35 tries

[ 2 ]

[ 8.7% ]

1 time in 58 tries

[ 1 ]

[ 4.3% ]

1 time in 77 tries

[ 0 ]

[ 0.0% ]

1 time in 104 tries

[ 11 ]

[ 47.8% ]

1 time in 144 tries

[ 0 ]

[ 0.0% ]

1 time in 210 tries

[ 1 ]

[ 4.3% ]

1 time in 421 tries

[ 4 ]

[ 17.4% ]

Total valid votes

[ 23 ]

Discarded votes

[ 11 ]

BobP

Dump Water Florida
United States
Member #380
June 5, 2002
3,678 Posts
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Dec 10, 2003, 3:35 pm

What do you think your chances are? Say your game is a standard 6/49 game and you like to select 24 numbers to wheel. How often can you expect all SIX of the winning numbers to be among your 24 picks? BobP
MikeK

United States
Member #2,873
November 25, 2003
1,132 Posts
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Dec 10, 2003, 4:16 pm

BobP,
I like the poll. Knowing the of course answer (isn't the hypergeometric distribution a fun function) but not giving it away, I am trying to reduce the numbers currently to 18 in the Powerpick 6 Program.
The topic shows of course also how "unwinable" games are such as a 6 out of 69 or just 6/52 and 6/53.
Good luck,
RJOh

100

mid-Ohio
United States
Member #9
March 24, 2001
20,272 Posts
Offline

Dec 10, 2003, 7:15 pm

Possible combinations of 6 in field of 49 = 13,983,816
Possible combinations of 6 in field of 24 = 134,596
13,983,816/134,596 = 103.89

* you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones *
lottoshlep

BC
Canada
Member #2,120
August 19, 2003
258 Posts
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Dec 11, 2003, 12:31 am

I voted 1/104 tries, based on actual back testing of ~10 yrs of data (1032 draws) with BC49 (6/49 lotto).
The actual figure obtained was avg 1.1/yr with a best of 4x 6/6 in one year and 0x 6/6 in 4 separate yrs. The overall win rate was ~63% for at least a 3/6 hit in the same time period.
Have not found a wheel yet that would come close to break even point with the 24 # picking method I used, let alone give a reasonable chance of capturing the 6/6.
I learned, as RJOh's stats confirm, my machinations were not much better than random picking.

if at first you don't succeed ... destroy all evidence you ever tried
Irvin

New Zealand
Member #2,234
September 2, 2003
173 Posts
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Dec 11, 2003, 1:57 am

I would run the risk of excluding the last 6 drawn numbers and pick the 24 from 43....But then I wouldnt pick 24 numbers.

Stick to small groups 10 to 12 numbers.
BobP

Dump Water Florida
United States
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June 5, 2002
3,678 Posts
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Dec 11, 2003, 11:33 am

Quote: Originally posted by Irvin on December 11, 2003

I would run the risk of excluding the last 6 drawn numbers and pick the 24 from 43....But then I wouldnt pick 24 numbers.

Stick to small groups 10 to 12 numbers.

Fair enough. So by random chance how often would you expect all the six winning numbers in your game to be among a group of 10 to 12 numbers?
How much better has your selection method done vs the above?

Just speculation here, which do you feel would do better over time:

Shot gunning all the numbers randomly onto 8 or 9 lines, or . . .

Shot gunning all the numbers strategically into 8 or 9 lines, or . . .

Wheeling 10 to 12 random numbers in 8 or 9 lines, or . . .

Wheeling your selected 10 to 12 numbers in 8 or 9 lines?
johnph77

CA
United States
Member #2,987
December 10, 2003
832 Posts
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Dec 12, 2003, 2:45 am

Wheel 10 numbers and there are 210 different 6 number combinations. Odds of hittine a 48/6 jackpot with 210 selections are 1::58435.77.
Wheel 11 numbers and there are 462 different 6 number combinations. Odds of hitting a 48/6 jackpot with 462 selections are 1::26561.71.
Wheel 12 numbers and there are 924 different 6 number combinations. Odds of hitting a 48/6 jackpot with 924 selections are 1::13280.86
Irvin

New Zealand
Member #2,234
September 2, 2003
173 Posts
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Dec 12, 2003, 3:42 am

Robert,

I have never really sat down and figured it out but here is what happens with the NZ lotto.

For a start there are only 40 balls from this 6 + 2 bonus balls are drawn. So if I take out the 6 balls from the previous draw I only have to chose from 34.

I could also take out the draw before that bringing the total selection of balls to around 30 (This happens 1 in every 6 draws).

If I did a full 12 number wheel from the 30 numbers left And the 6 drawn balls just happen to be from those 30 numbers then chances of me having all 6 would be 1 in 642.

The problem here is I would not play a full wheel, way too expensive for me.

Best I would probably play is a 4if4from6 wheel. And chances of all 6 being in that group and matching 6 in one line would be 1 in 14482.

Those are my calculations based on the 6 balls being drawn from the remaining 30.

If I am wrong sorry and if it doesnt make sense its probably because when I wrote this I had one eye closed and a spinning head.....too much late night celebrating and excess work lately.
BobP

Dump Water Florida
United States
Member #380
June 5, 2002
3,678 Posts
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Dec 18, 2003, 8:56 pm

Irvin: Consider a wheel like this. Start with a 4if6in12 wheel made in blocks of 3 numbers, where if you get any two blocks right you win a jackpot and if not but get 6 among the 12 you win 4#'s anyway, then for insurance build a 3if6in24 wheel to 95% around it, whole thing takes only 15 lines. BobP

1 2 3 4 5 6
1 2 3 7 8 9
1 2 3 10 11 12
4 5 6 7 8 9
4 5 6 10 11 12
7 8 9 10 11 12
9 13 14 19 20 22
13 15 17 21 23 24
14 15 16 19 20 23
3 16 17 18 21 22
2 6 10 15 22 24
3 4 8 11 14 24
1 5 8 10 17 19
1 7 12 18 20 21
2 11 13 16 18 23
end 15 pointer number lines
CASH Only

United States
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June 5, 2002
11,294 Posts
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Jan 5, 2004, 8:35 am

Australia also has games with 2 bonus balls. Yet to hear of such a game in the US.
CASH Only

United States
Member #379
June 5, 2002
11,294 Posts
Offline

Jan 6, 2004, 9:34 am

Of course, some call the "Mega Ball" or PB a bonus ball-but I don't think of a bonus ball as something needed to win the jackpot.
BobP

Dump Water Florida
United States
Member #380
June 5, 2002
3,678 Posts
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Jan 8, 2004, 11:05 pm

Quote: Originally posted by CASH Only on January 06, 2004

Of course, some call the "Mega Ball" or PB a bonus ball-but I don't think of a bonus ball as something needed to win the jackpot.

Bonus balls help players to win and come from the same hopper as the drawing. ie: AU 6/45 with 2 bonus balls, you play six numbers the lottery draws 8.

A mega or power ball comes from an additional hopper and can duplicate a number already drawn raising the odds making the game much harder to win.

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