Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited December 8, 2016, 10:57 am
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

Buying more tickets = reduced odds

Topic closed. 100 replies. Last post 13 years ago by Dowser.

Page 6 of 7
PrintE-mailLink
ayenowitall's avatar - rod serling4.jpg

United States
Member #4416
April 22, 2004
1075 Posts
Offline
Posted: May 7, 2004, 6:31 pm - IP Logged

Colin,

You miss my point entirely, but I think there is precious little I can say to help you comprehend. I will say that the concept of odds is not exactly rocket science. What you consider to be the universally accepted meaning is correct as far as it goes, but to stop there without giving consideration to odds as the ratio between the amounts put up by the parties to a bet with respect to the expected probability either way leaves a huge blind spot in your argument. It also leaves the door wide open to losing due to ignorance of a more critical aspect of odds for gamblers. Cashing a ticket because of a perceived enhancement of probability is one thing. Actually winning and showing a profit is quite another. You might want to expand you computer model to account for a more comprehensive approach to odds if you plan hit the big one somewhere along the way. Until then, good luck and good learning.

    BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
    Dump Water Florida
    United States
    Member #380
    June 5, 2002
    3104 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: May 7, 2004, 9:20 pm - IP Logged

    Let's see now, 6/49 lotto with odds of 1 in 13,983,816

    Buying X Unique Tickets
    1 = 13,983,816
    2 = 6,991,908
    4 = 3,495,954
    8 = 1,747,977
    16 = 873,988.5
    32 = 436,994.25
    64 = 218,497.125
    128 = 109,248.5625
    256 = 54,624.28125
    512 = 27,312.140625
    1024 = 13,656.0703125
    2048 = 6,828.03515625
    4096 = 3,414.017578125
    8192 = 1,707.0087890625
    16384 = 853.50439453125
    32768 = 426.752197265625
    65536 = 213.3760986328125
    131072 = 106.68804931640625
    262144 = 53.344024658203125
    524288 = 26.6720123291015625
    1048576 = 13.33600616455078125
    2097152 = 6.668003082275390625
    4194304 = 3.3340015411376953125
    8388608 = 1.66700077056884765625
    13983816 = 1.00000000000000000000
    16777216 = 0.833500385284423828125

    And so we come full round and a little beyond.  BobP
     


      Australia
      Member #3084
      December 22, 2003
      328 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: May 7, 2004, 10:37 pm - IP Logged

      ayenowitall

      I don't plan to hit the big one. I'm concerned about increasing the 3's, 4's and 5's wins in for example a 6/49 Lotto for a given number of tickets. Now, if you had looked up some of what I've posted before you would have found that I acknowledge that as a difficult task. For the best systems it hinges on getting the 5's up more consistently and often. For the realists amongst us that is the challenge and enjoyment.

      Some like to play the Pick3 and Pick4 games where I would not discount the capability of the human brain to see trends (how many human faces of our own race can we distinguish between - probably millions). I favour the games with the allure of a huge first prize and where a bit of number crunching helps one along.

      Generally, what is used is short term occurrence, long term occurrence, absence, Hit-Miss signatures and not much else. Wheels are just a way of playing the numbers youv'e decided on more efficiently. Some of what I do is innovative and that has appeal to me especially if it works.

      The crunch is if there was a contest of 5 x 500 draw runs and the winner was the one who made the most dollars from the 3's, 4's and 5's then with you playing random selections and me playing my system I would win; might be by a significant amount or a small amount but I would win. Why? Because I've managed to move the odds that small amount in my favour compared to random selections.

      Colin 

        Avatar
        Melbourne
        Australia
        Member #3717
        February 14, 2004
        41 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: May 7, 2004, 10:42 pm - IP Logged

        I've been following this thread with interest and my take on it is this:

        If a given draw comprises of 1,000 possible combinations and I buy one ticket, that means that I win if that combination comes up and lose if it doesn't.  The term "odds" is made up of two things..."Odds for" and "odds against" and in this case, my "odds for" = 1 and my "odds against" = 999.  The odds therefore are 1 in 1000 or 999 to 1 against.

        If I buy two tickets, that means that I win if either of those combinations come up and lose if they don't and in this case, my "odds for" = 2and my "odds against" = 998.  The odds therefore are 2 in 1000 or 998 to 2 (or 499 to 1) against and so on.

        So by buying one extra ticket, my odds have improved from 999 to 1 against to 499 to 1 against.  Of course, this point of view also brings into play the Law of Diminishing Returns (e.g if I buy a third ticket, my odds improve to 3 in 1000 or 997 to 3 against, which is 332.33 to 1 against, which means that the purchase of the third ticket has only improved my chances by 166.7 to 1 over the purchase of two tickets)....and the purchase of each subsequent ticket sees a progressively smaller improvement in my chances.

        Any comments ??


          Australia
          Member #3084
          December 22, 2003
          328 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: May 7, 2004, 11:28 pm - IP Logged

          Probability of getting winning six for x games played in 6/49 Lotto.

          1 = 1/13,983,816
          2 = 1/6,991,908
          4 = 1/3,495,954
          8 = 1/1,747,977
          16 = 1/873,988
          32 = 1/436,994
          64 = 1/218,497
          128 = 1/109,248
          256 = 1/54,624
          512 = 1/27,312
          1024 = 1/13,656
          2048 = 1/6,828
          4096 = 1/3414
          8192 = 1/1,707
          16384 = .001171
          32768 = .002343
          65536 = .004686
          131072 = .009373
          262144 = .018746
          524288 = .037492
          1048576 = .074984
          2097152 = .149969
          4194304 = .299939
          8388608 = .599879
          13983816 = 1

          This is fun. The things we do and don't get paid for.

          Regards

          Colin

            ayenowitall's avatar - rod serling4.jpg

            United States
            Member #4416
            April 22, 2004
            1075 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: May 9, 2004, 3:05 pm - IP Logged
            Quote: Originally posted by Colin F on May 07, 2004



            I don't plan to hit the big one. I'm concerned about increasing the 3's, 4's and 5's wins in for example a 6/49 Lotto for a given number of tickets...  For the best systems it hinges on getting the 5's up more consistently and often. For the realists amongst us that is the challenge and enjoyment.

            The crunch is if there was a contest of 5 x 500 draw runs and the winner was the one who made the most dollars from the 3's, 4's and 5's then with you playing random selections and me playing my system I would win; might be by a significant amount or a small amount but I would win. Why? Because I've managed to move the odds that small amount in my favour compared to random selections.

            Colin 





            Colin,

            My plan is indeed to hit the big one. The challenge and enjoyment of a game might be enough for you, but it's all about the Benjamin for me. With the huge fixed edge that lotteries take on secondary prizes, I think you'll have to do much better than moving the odds a small amount in your favor. They'll grind you down into a loser on that level. No amount of tickets or strategy can change the edge they take on the payoff odds. No matter how you might fare when matched against other players, you ultimately have to beat the lottery to be a winner. Only the jackpot - and sometimes the second prize - gives you a real shot to overcome the lottery's edge.

            By the way, how many of those 5's have you hit so far? Whatever that number is, good luck with hitting more of them... a lot more.

              ayenowitall's avatar - rod serling4.jpg

              United States
              Member #4416
              April 22, 2004
              1075 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: May 11, 2004, 2:26 am - IP Logged
              Quote: Originally posted by Jake649 on May 09, 2004


              In summary, buying 2 tickets doubles the probability of winning. Buying 3 tickets triples the probability of winning. Buying 4 tickets quadruples the probability of winning, etc.

              The purpose of this post is to prove that probabilities of winning increases with the number of tickets purchased. This is by no means meant to convince anyone that they should buy more tickets. Spend only what you can afford to lose.






              Jake,


              Your math is right, but I wouldn't say that buying more tickets increases the probabilities of winning. You just increase the probability of cashing tickets.


              Let's use the Pick 3 game as an example of what I'm talking about. In Kentucky, the Pick 3 pays $600 (a 40% edge) for a straight win. [Incidentally, many other lotteries only pay $500 (a 50% edge) for a straight win.] All things being equal, if you buy one ticket on each draw over a period of 1000 draws, you'll win $600 one time, but you will have spent $1000. That's a loss of $400.


              If you buy two unique tickets on each draw over a period of 1000 draws, you'll win $600 twice ($1200), but you will have spent $2000. That's a loss of $800.


              !f you buy three unique tickets on each draw over a period of 1000 draws, you'll win $600 three times ($1800), but you will have spent $3000. That's a loss of $1200.


              Do you see what's happening here? You're betting more money, cashing more tickets, and losing more money. You have a greater probability of cashing tickets, but isn't that rather meaningless if you're losing more money? Why? It's because you're also effectively reducing the payoff odds when you buy more tickets. With one ticket, you're getting 599 to 1 when you win. With two unique tickets, you're getting 299.5 to 1 when you win because you put up twice as much money for the same return. With three unique tickets, you're getting 199.7 to 1 when you win because you put up three times as much money for the same return.


              Personally, I don't play the Pick 3 games. The huge edge they take is very hard to overcome for the amount you stand to win. I'd recommend that anyone playing that game have a very strong winning strategy, bet conservatively, be lucky as heck, get ahead early, and then quit! Otherwise, the edge they take will grind you down into a loser.


              My earliest wagering experience came from betting horses, so I spent a lot of time watching the tote boards. I think we have to keep an eye on the payoff odds as well as the probability odds when playing lottery games, too. And as you so wisely said, "Spend only what you can afford to lose." 


                Australia
                Member #3084
                December 22, 2003
                328 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: May 11, 2004, 3:43 am - IP Logged

                ayenowitall

                Playing random selections will usually give you a return in accordance with the advertised odds. This means as you increase the number of tickets purchased over all the draws your chances of getting the higher prizes kicks in.

                So playing BobP's 164 Lines over 500 Draws in a 6/49 Lotto with a random selection of 28 tickets per draw the expected return is 15%; playing 164 the expected return is 18% because a 5 is expected. For Wisconsin he beat the odds and got 3 fives up giving a return around 24%.

                Colin

                  ayenowitall's avatar - rod serling4.jpg

                  United States
                  Member #4416
                  April 22, 2004
                  1075 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: May 12, 2004, 4:24 am - IP Logged
                  Quote: Originally posted by Colin F on May 11, 2004

                  So playing BobP's 164 Lines over 500 Draws in a 6/49 Lotto with a random selection of 28 tickets per draw the expected return is 15%; playing 164 the expected return is 18% because a 5 is expected. For Wisconsin he beat the odds and got 3 fives up giving a return around 24%.





                  Colin,

                  Was this a workout based on draw history, a computer model, or actual play? My hat goes off to anyone who can truly beat the odds, but I'm concerned with reality and actually making money. I'd be interested in seeing a more articulate and detailed accounting of BobP's experience. In particular, I'm wondering exactly how much was spent over 500 draws to hit those 3 fives. Do you have the details?


                    Australia
                    Member #3084
                    December 22, 2003
                    328 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: May 12, 2004, 7:01 am - IP Logged

                    ayenowitall

                    May I be the first to congratulate you on your more conciliatry approach. I try not to be drawn too much on commenting on an individuals chances of winning first prize. Dreams are what keep a lot of people going and coping with life.

                    My program in this case is just being the medium to run BobP 164 lines against the actual Wisconsin 6/49 History and caculate and record the wins. (It takes just a few minutes.) In the run referred to I started it from the begining and it scored 24%. Starting it 300 Draws later it scorred 21% with 2 Fives.

                    Cost: 500 x 164 x 50c = $41,000
                    Prizes: 3 ; $2  4 ; $40  5 ; $1,500

                    Expected per Probability: 3's - 1447; 4's - 77; 5's - 1 (calc gives 1.5)
                    Percentage Return: 18% of Cost  (7474/41000)

                    Wisconsin:

                    Run 1: 3's - 1455; 4's - 84; 5's - 3  Percentage Return: 24% of Cost
                    Run 2: 3's - 1456; 4's - 69; 5's - 2  Percentage Return: 21% of Cost

                    More details are in the SUMS thread.

                    For details on the 164 lines - over to BobP.

                    Regards

                    Colin

                      ayenowitall's avatar - rod serling4.jpg

                      United States
                      Member #4416
                      April 22, 2004
                      1075 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: May 13, 2004, 1:49 am - IP Logged

                      Colin,

                      I did go back and read the entire SUMS thread. It was interesting reading. Perhaps the most enlightening aspect of the thread was your statement that your enjoyment of the lottery comes from just being able to improve on the odds ever so slightly. I suppose that's why I failed to recognize the validity of your argument. You see, I thought we were all trying to actually win money.

                      Well, I'm thinking that my computer, my pocket calculator, and all of my acquired math skills must be failing me. For some reason, I just cant get the numbers you gave in your last post to add up, but I'll assume that your figures must be right. Even though you've made it clear that you'd never stoop to calling anyone stupid, I'll do it for you. I must be the stupidest person here at Lottery Post  because I can't understand how wagering $41,000 to get back a grand total of $9840 can possibly be construed as winning or beating the odds. The notion of payoff odds (I apologize if that offends you)  and my demonstration that they are effectively reduced as more and more tickets are bought, must be entirely wrong. What on earth was I thinking?

                      Even though, to my convoluted way of thinking, your claim of beating the odds is at best a statistical pyrrhic victory, I will concede and defer to your superior intellect and skills. Now, as a heartfelt gesture of humility and penitence, allow me to extend a most generous offer to you. Since you are justifiably elated with achieving a total return of 24% on your money, I will return to you the generous sum of $20,500 if you will first send to me $41,000. That's a full 50%! That beats by far any small amount that you might be able to move the lottery odds in your favor. Additionally, I have some prime real estate and bridges here in the United States that I'm sure will make excellent investment opportunities for you. I accept checks and all major credit cards, but I do have a strong preference for cash in the form of US dollars.

                      Good luck and best wishes for continued success in all your lottery play.

                        BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
                        Dump Water Florida
                        United States
                        Member #380
                        June 5, 2002
                        3104 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: May 13, 2004, 1:58 am - IP Logged
                        Quote: Originally posted by Colin F on May 12, 2004



                        ayenowitall

                        May I be the first to congratulate you on your more conciliatry approach. I try not to be drawn too much on commenting on an individuals chances of winning first prize. Dreams are what keep a lot of people going and coping with life.

                        My program in this case is just being the medium to run BobP 164 lines against the actual Wisconsin 6/49 History and caculate and record the wins. (It takes just a few minutes.) In the run referred to I started it from the begining and it scored 24%. Starting it 300 Draws later it scorred 21% with 2 Fives.

                        Cost: 500 x 164 x 50c = $41,000
                        Prizes: 3 ; $2  4 ; $40  5 ; $1,500

                        Expected per Probability: 3's - 1447; 4's - 77; 5's - 1 (calc gives 1.5)
                        Percentage Return: 18% of Cost  (7474/41000)

                        Wisconsin:

                        Run 1: 3's - 1455; 4's - 84; 5's - 3  Percentage Return: 24% of Cost
                        Run 2: 3's - 1456; 4's - 69; 5's - 2  Percentage Return: 21% of Cost

                        More details are in the SUMS thread.

                        For details on the 164 lines - over to BobP.

                        Regards

                        Colin






                        Many of you already know about this, for those of you who don't . . .

                        One of the worlds most powerful wheels is the 3if3of6in22numbers77lines.

                        Also written as 22,6,3,3,77 in wheeling circles, this means that if you find three of the six winning numbers among your 22, you are mathamatically guaranteed at least one 3# winning line. 

                        Now that doesn't sound so impressive until you consider what happens if you have more then three of the winning numbers among your 22.

                        With 4 winning numbers among the 22 you don't just get two 3# wins, you get four!

                        With 5 winning numbers among the 22 you get ten 3# wins and 71% coverage of a 4# win.

                        With 6 winning numbers among the 22 you get twenty 3# wins and 96% coverage of a 4# win and fair odds of two or three of them.

                        So what's the worst possible outcome?  Well that would be having zero, one or two of the winning numbers among our 22. 

                        This is offset by working the remaining numbers into (for 6/49) a 3if4 wheel or another 3if3 wheel.  The 3if4 is cheaper and allows us to come in around 77 + 87 = 164 lines depending on whose 3if4 wheel you use.  A 3if3 wheel for 27 numbers takes about 128 lines + 77 means 208 lines.

                        The odds for the winning numbers falling onto either wheel are roughly the same as them turning up odd/even or low/high, which means you get 3/3 a lot, but about one time in 50 draws one half or the other gets ALL SIX allowing for very interesting possibilities in a test against a large draw history. 

                        Personally I'd rather have a small chance of a jackpot in every draw rather then wait 50 or so draws for the good one.  BobP

                          BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
                          Dump Water Florida
                          United States
                          Member #380
                          June 5, 2002
                          3104 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: May 13, 2004, 2:08 am - IP Logged
                          Quote: Originally posted by ayenowitall on May 13, 2004



                          Colin,

                          I did go back and read the entire SUMS thread. It was interesting reading. Perhaps the most enlightening aspect of the thread was your statement that your enjoyment of the lottery comes from just being able to improve on the odds ever so slightly. I suppose that's why I failed to recognize the validity of your argument. You see, I thought we were all trying to actually win money.

                          Well, I'm thinking that my computer, my pocket calculator, and all of my acquired math skills must be failing me. For some reason, I just cant get the numbers you gave in your last post to add up, but I'll assume that your figures must be right. Even though you've made it clear that you'd never stoop to calling anyone stupid, I'll do it for you. I must be the stupidest person here at Lottery Post  because I can't understand how wagering $41,000 to get back a grand total of $9840 can possibly be construed as winning or beating the odds. The notion of payoff odds (I apologize if that offends you)  and my demonstration that they are effectively reduced as more and more tickets are bought, must be entirely wrong. What on earth was I thinking?

                          Even though, to my convoluted way of thinking, your claim of beating the odds is at best a statistical pyrrhic victory, I will concede and defer to your superior intellect and skills. Now, as a heartfelt gesture of humility and penitence, allow me to extend a most generous offer to you. Since you are justifiably elated with achieving a total return of 24% on your money, I will return to you the generous sum of $20,500 if you will first send to me $41,000. That's a full 50%! That beats by far any small amount that you might be able to move the lottery odds in your favor. Additionally, I have some prime real estate and bridges here in the United States that I'm sure will make excellent investment opportunities for you. I accept checks and all major credit cards, but I do have a strong preference for cash in the form of US dollars.

                          Good luck and best wishes for continued success in all your lottery play.





                          The idea is to reduce the cost to play with lower tier prizes while waiting to win the jackpot which should pay back all reasonable playing expenses and then some.

                          Of course at this point we're just talking about putting that kind of money into play.  Certainly smarter to have a pretty good idea what's going to happen if we do, then to have no idea what-so-ever.  BobP

                            Australia
                            Member #3084
                            December 22, 2003
                            328 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: May 13, 2004, 2:52 am - IP Logged

                            AyeNoWitAll

                            As they say "A leopard can't change it's spots".

                            1. Lotto is a negative return expectation game.

                            2. If you can't subtract $7,474 from $10,770 and realize you're better off
                               by $3,296 then that's you're problem.

                            4. To "plan" on winning Lotto with no plan is equivalent to saying I intend
                                to live for 10,000 years.

                            5. The offer you make is not a lottery as it is a one dvent with a 1st prize
                                less than the cost of participation; it's a scam. That you offer it does not
                                surprise me. To the extent that you rate the intelligence of others as
                                seeing some merit in such a blatant scam is a reflection on your own
                                intelligence.

                            6. You may have observed that people who play slot machines or pokies will
                                quickly change to another machine if they think it will pay better.

                            7. I like wit - but you have to be clever to use it. You don't have to be clever
                                to realize someone is trying to be witty but falling on their face. Know your
                                limitations and work within them. You remind me of some people I have 
                                asked to tell me what they know as it would only take a minute.

                            Colin 


                              Belgium
                              Member #2220
                              September 2, 2003
                              553 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: May 13, 2004, 4:23 am - IP Logged
                              Quote: Originally posted by Jake649 on May 03, 2004



                              This topic came up in another thread but the thread went off in a tangent so I decided to start a new thread devoted to the following questions.

                              Q: Can lottery odds be reduced by buying more tickets?

                              A: Yes

                              Q: How are the new, reduced odds calculated?

                              A: Say that a lottery has X number of unique outcomes. Then the odds of hitting the jackpot is 1 in X. If one buys N number of tickets where no two tickets have exactly the same set of numbers, then the odds of hitting the jackpot is 1 in X/N.







                              In this case, the mathematical odds will always remain 1*N in X  or N in X nomatter what you try!!!  not  1 in X/N ???