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Probability of Repeats, Subsequent Draws

Topic closed. 12 replies. Last post 13 years ago by WIN D.

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Australia
Member #3084
December 22, 2003
328 Posts
Offline
Posted: May 9, 2004, 12:28 am - IP Logged

A 6/49 Lotto.

Probabilty of a repeat in the next draw 6/49. This explains why we nearly get a repeat number from the previous draw in every draw.

I would like to see some probability equations for the draw after that and the draw after that etc.

To each his own. I can extract that information without getting a headache but not necessarilly so if I have to wade through the Math(s). But I like to see that my results correspond to the Math(s).

Regards

Colin 

    WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
    Stone Mountain*Georgia
    United States
    Member #828
    November 2, 2002
    10491 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: May 11, 2004, 2:23 pm - IP Logged
    Hello mate! I'll have to talk fast.... before all the blood rushes to my head. Not use to this southern hemisphere (Australia). LOL  

     Colin, I don't play the larger games, Pick 3 is my hobby. I do enjoy your post very much and read this one on repeats and probability and became interested in asking you more about it. 

     Have you ever tracked the position frequency for repeats? Not the numbers ....no....just the positions. In the 6/49 you are lucky in that your choices are of an even number(6).

      Six Positions a,b,c, d,e,f .....or position Box 1.2.3.4.5. and 6  What we have here are 3 high and 3 low as well as 3 odd and 3 even positions.  123 and 456.

      Consider the situation if each one of these position numbers repeats all came from the position boxes or slots ......something like this.  1,2,1,4,4,3,6,6,2,2,1  Pretend for a moment that this was the position that each of the last repeat numbers came from. Are you starting to see what I'm getting at? The missing slot number # 5  has not hit yet! The next draw might be 17 12 34 32 22 25 The number 22 in position #5 would be a prime candidate as a repeat. If not the next draw,perhaps the next. Perhaps this example is not as clear an indicator as the next examples but note worthy, yes? 

     Other examples:   

      Position order numbers. 123456  If I saw the last 4 or 5 repeats came from the position(boxes) numbers 1.2.3.3.1. ........I would consider that the repeat would next come from the other side either 4,5, or 6. After all it is 50/50

     If I saw that the last several  position hits all were fromeven number positions ......say 2, 2, 4,2, 6,6,4.... I would consider the next position hit would come from one of the ODD position slots.

     High/ low ......odd/even recording of the repeats and the position order box they came from.

     I'm sure this method would result in cutting your odds down by 50% on several occasions during the year, and increase the chances of a hit on  that repeat number

     Perhaps you might have noticed a probability chart for sequential numbers in a  post on the Systems Forum. "Everything you need to know about P-3" I think it has dropped a couple of pages back now. It had to do with probability of equally like dvents (50/50) .....which is what we have here.  

      Hope this was clear enough for you Colin. Sorry if it wasn't but I will try again if you wish. Interested in your opinion on this as a potential indicator tool for your game. 

     I'm sure these numbers will rock back n forth most of the time, and not present any clear or immanent choice. But........when they do take their turn being bad (and all numbers do) their value as indicators will go way up!     

     

     

    The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                  Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                  Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                           Win d    


      Australia
      Member #3084
      December 22, 2003
      328 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: May 12, 2004, 8:13 am - IP Logged

      Win D

      How ya doing. Good to hear from you.

      I don't know whether you've noticed but I'm currently working on a simple little free Pick3/Pick4 program to sort and analyze a Draw History. The idea is I get some experience in uploading, providing downloading and putting some security into the program before I do anything more ambitious. I asked for a bit of feedback from a couple of members - but nothing yet.

      At the moment I'm looking at including the following:
      History List: 3 Columns or 4
      Choose History: Type, State etc
      Choose History Depth: 50, 100, 150 etc
      Sort Order: Ascending, Descending
      Sort Choice: By Date, By Number (?)
      Hit Rate per Column by Number
      Absence per Column by Number

      So maybe I can include what you're asking for if it's not covered above.

      How about doing a bit of a diagram with sample data in it illustrating what you would like to see on your screen. The how to you can leave up to me.

      Regards

      Colin

        WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
        Stone Mountain*Georgia
        United States
        Member #828
        November 2, 2002
        10491 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: May 13, 2004, 8:54 am - IP Logged

        Dear Big game players, 

         What per cent of the time do you get a 2 number repeat in 6/49 ? Is there an equation?

         What is the % of a one number repeat?

         What per cent do you have all even numbers..or...all odd? On the rare times that we get an all even on the 5/39 .......if I remember, your odds go down from a pool of about a half a million .....to .....around 5o,ooo . I only play all even numbers when I do play. On those days.....90% better odds.    

         If you knew that position 3 had produced the last 7 repeat numbers what would you do? If the last 6 or 7 repeats were all even numbers how would this change your choices if at all?

         If you knew that position 2 had not produced a repeat in 25 draws that a repeat actually did occur.....what would you do? Would you play the number under position 2 every time .....until it did hit?

         If you knew the last 9 times a repeat occurred ......they all came from either position 1, 2, or 3....... would you consider this an opportunity to trap the next repeat by only choosing from the other half of the positions....4,5, or 6 ? 

         Does any big game software out there already track repeats by position ? Pick 3 mentality whats to know. LOL 

         

         

        The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                      Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                      Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                               Win d    


          Australia
          Member #3084
          December 22, 2003
          328 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: May 14, 2004, 3:50 am - IP Logged

          Win d

          I'm not ignoring what you ask for just give me a bit of time. Over 2 years ago I went into all this then went well away from it. I'll dig out what you want but anyone else feel free to provide the info.

          One thing I can tell you is that the figures did not get much enthusiasm from me; in fact they were the prime motivator for me to look for another way forward. I do believe that finding some kind of useful repetition is the key to a good lotto system.

          Regards
          Colin


            Australia
            Member #3084
            December 22, 2003
            328 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: May 14, 2004, 10:56 am - IP Logged

            WIN D

            Just to see what it looks like.

             OccurrenceAllDrawsByNumber
             Wisconsin June 20 1992 To Jan 5 2002
              No  Hits
              9  156
              24  140
              34  135
              25  134
              36  134
              42  134
              44  134
              11  133
              28  131
              31  131
              5  129
              13  128
              2  128
              16  127
              15  126
              27  126
              8  125
              32  124
              26  123
              29  122
              33  122
              48  121
              45  121
              47  121
              43  120
              49  120
              30  120
              22  119
              38  119
              14  119
              12  119
              37  118
              41  118
              19  118
              6  117
              18  117
              4  117
              10  116
              46  115
              20  114
              21  114
              40  114
              7  113
              3  112
              39  111
              35  109
              1  108
              17  105
              23  105

              RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
              mid-Ohio
              United States
              Member #9
              March 24, 2001
              19816 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: May 14, 2004, 1:31 pm - IP Logged

              The probablity of a repeat in the next draw of a 6/49 game is the same as it would be for any six numbers combination having numbers in the next draw.

               6 / 6      1 : 13983816
               5 / 6      1 : 54201
               4 / 6      1 : 1032
               3 / 6      1 : 57
               2 / 6      1 : 8
               1 / 6      1 : 2

              The odds of a single number repeating in the next draw is 1:2, to get the odds of 2+ draws back divide the above odds by 2+.

                      OHIO649P: 07/15/00 TO 05/12/04  399 RECORDS

                1. 53    11. 62    21. 47    31. 49    41. 61    51. 0
                2. 35    12. 48    22. 59    32. 61    42. 45    52. 0
                3. 54    13. 41    23. 56    33. 48    43. 42    53. 0
                4. 43    14. 51    24. 63    34. 40    44. 41    54. 0
                5. 48    15. 56    25. 51    35. 47    45. 63    55. 0
                6. 46    16. 51    26. 54    36. 39    46. 44    56. 0
                7. 51    17. 54    27. 43    37. 48    47. 49    57. 0
                8. 52    18. 49    28. 41    38. 36    48. 36    58. 0
                9. 42    19. 50    29. 57    39. 37    49. 49    59. 0
               10. 47    20. 51    30. 52    40. 52    50. 0    60. 0
               AVE SUM = 148.4    AVE. RNG = 35.6


              RJOh

               * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                 
                           Evil Looking       

                WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
                Stone Mountain*Georgia
                United States
                Member #828
                November 2, 2002
                10491 Posts
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                Posted: May 14, 2004, 6:49 pm - IP Logged

                Thanks Colin and RJOH .

                 This is a TUFF game. It hurts my little....  Pea- Pickin' Pick3 head. The odds are just toooo much for me to use in my little methods.

                  In the Pick-5 games ....I always picture it as me against the odds of about 10 college football stadiums ....each one of them holding about 50,000 people. During halftime they call out the winning ticket number at all 10 stadiums .......Yeah! it's me. I can handle that easy. ha ha. 

                  OK, I can dream that high ...one in  500,000. But......that  ..... one in 13 million. That's me playing against 260 stadiums ....all holding 50 thousand people each!!! Ok .... I win again ....yeah! But wait. 

                 It's not really a winner yet. I have to go to one more bowl game because it's not 13 million ......its almost 14 million to one.(13,983,16) Soooo...I have to go to another really big bowl game that holds 983 thousand more people. Yeah! .....I win again. LOL   But wait.....  

                 Then I have to draw short straws with those last 16 people ...... LOL oh no!  That last part just kills my hopes of a win.             

                 

                 

                The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                              Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                              Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                                       Win d    


                  Australia
                  Member #3084
                  December 22, 2003
                  328 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: May 14, 2004, 7:35 pm - IP Logged

                  WIN D

                  And that is why I say if you can consistently do marginally better than the published odds in these big odds games for the 3's, 4's and 5's you're doing very well.

                  Some of us know and have confirmed that some of the outrageous claims made by some promoters will not stand close scrutiny. You have a little pick at someone who's getting a bit too y now and then, that's all - if you tried to take them all on you'd go nuts.

                  For the regular contributions you make I think you should be thanked for that effort in providing others with information - you know as well as I do that your Posting to a world stage and if you want to retain any credibility you have to think about what your putting up there before you press that "Post" button. And that means time, unpaid for time.

                  I do wish Todd had a facility like a manufacturer I deal with where if your the author you can edit your Post (well at least within a given time frame.) Get rid of those petty and embarrassing errors.

                  Regards

                  Colin

                    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                    mid-Ohio
                    United States
                    Member #9
                    March 24, 2001
                    19816 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: May 15, 2004, 2:02 am - IP Logged

                    Colin,

                    You have 7-10 minutes after you post to edit or delete your post.  There are edit and delete buttons on the lower right side of you post, they disappear 7-10 minutes after you post the first time .  I often edit and update my posts  several times and they still look stupid when I review them a day later.

                    RJOh

                     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                       
                                 Evil Looking       

                      S.Windsor, CT
                      United States
                      Member #4580
                      May 4, 2004
                      119 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: May 15, 2004, 4:41 pm - IP Logged

                      To Mathematics followers,

                      There is a very good book about the math of lotto games:

                      "How to win more...." by N.Henze

                      Bertil

                        WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
                        Stone Mountain*Georgia
                        United States
                        Member #828
                        November 2, 2002
                        10491 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: May 15, 2004, 4:51 pm - IP Logged

                         Went back by hand and looked at the last 52 draws on lotto south.

                         25 repeats of 1 digit ....and of those only 2 two number repeats.

                         Of the 25 repeats 16 were odd numbers....and only 9 even.

                         Each of the 6 positions had at least one hit. 

                          position 1.....5 hits

                                    p2.....3 hits

                                     p3.....1 hit  *

                                    p4.....1 hit  *

                                     p5.....6 hits

                                    p6.....7 hits

                         Based on this and other considerations, it seems the value of this as a tool to pick the next repeat number can go way up at certain times, presenting some highly probable choices.  

                         The last draw for lotto south was 10-21-24-26-28-41. If we get a repeat tonight, the position #3...digit 24 has the best confidence level. The last 4 repeats all ended in odd digits(would be better if it were 5 or 6). This, and the 16 to 9 difference of odd to even position hits, compound the probability the next repeat should be EVEN and should end with a low even number.  

                         So.....position #3 should be the next repeat and with an even number. If a repeat hits tonight ...digit # 24 is a good choice. Digit #3 is a good choice until it does hit. It will be fun to see how this does.    

                                       

                         

                         

                        The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                                      Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                                      Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                                               Win d    

                          WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
                          Stone Mountain*Georgia
                          United States
                          Member #828
                          November 2, 2002
                          10491 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: May 16, 2004, 1:50 pm - IP Logged

                           LoL ... It was even number repeat and did hit in Position 3. It was not the number 24 that repeated. It was 28. Position p-5, and it repeated in 3rd. slot. This is ofno help at all ....unless you wanted to predict what position was next going to receive the next repeat number. Position doesn't count in 6/49. That's what we get when a Pick-3 player uses his game familiarity starting from here.  

                            Well, between an inexperienced player, and using bad data history, and attempting to do it by hand, you get what you pay for. "Doo-Doo" Maybe it's just me.....but I get the feeling most people are wrong on this game a lot.... and don't win very often. LOL 

                           I really do think there is something here, and it should be looked at more closely. It could be of value.... at least on certain draws. Hopefully, someone with the right tools and experience will give this the shot it deserves.  It is interesting, and someone is already doing it somewhere. Share a little with us.         

                           





                          /15/200416-22-28-35-45 47color=#0000ff details
                          5/12/200410-21-24-26-28 41color=#0000ff details
                          5/8/200413-16-20-22-27 38color=#0000ff details
                          5/5/200420-37-40-42-43 44color=#0000ff details
                          5/1/200413-22-23-24-36 39color=#0000ff details
                          4/28/200409-13-28-33-37  49  color=#0000ff
                          4/24/200402-10-17-19-30 49color=#0000ff details
                          4/21/200408-13-20-26-44 49color=#0000ff details
                          4/17/200402-11-19-20-21 25color=#0000ff details
                          4/14/200409-31-32-41-45 47color=#0000ff details
                          4/10/200409-12-29-33-35 46color=#0000ff details
                          4/7/200403-08-27-28-34 39details
                          4/3/200401-16-30-41-47 49details
                          3/31/200402-19-22-35-44 48details
                          3/27/200401-04-16-19-20 45color=#0000ff details
                          3/24/200410-11-17-23-28 36color=#0000ff details
                          3/20/200401-07-20-31-36 44color=#0000ff details
                          3/17/200402-06-18-19-36 39color=#0000ff details
                          3/13/200401-07-13-33-36 44


                           

                           

                          The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                                        Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                                        Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                                                 Win d