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Ball Ranges Anyone?!

Topic closed. 9 replies. Last post 13 years ago by desparado.

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Bangalore
India
Member #2444
October 4, 2003
234 Posts
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Posted: May 22, 2004, 10:31 am - IP Logged

Hi All,

I guess it would be interesting if we could look for sequences WITHIN different BALL RANGES (positional sequence search, in other words) for a given lottery, INSTEAD of the ENTIRE range of lottery! This "ball-by-ball" search would be a "different ball game" altogether...LOL. Result of this search could be later unified to reflect the whole game, once we discover a pattern or trend...:)

In this regard, it is interesting to visit this site which gives break-up of ball ranges for a 649 lottery: http://lotteryhelp.com/concept2.htm

Good Luck!

Just Monkeying Around With Numbers...!

    hypersoniq's avatar - 8ball
    Pennsylvania
    United States
    Member #1340
    April 6, 2003
    2450 Posts
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    Posted: May 22, 2004, 4:11 pm - IP Logged

    I separate the draws into individual positions... waiting until the end to combine them into a pick...

    sometimes the data has ball#3 lower than ball#2... even tho the history is in sorted order (because draw order has too wide of a range to be useful)

    an example... P.A. match6

    most popular numbers (BY POSITION)

    1st Ball = 02 (drawn 9 times in position 1, 10 times overall)

    2nd Ball = 07 (drawn 5 times in position 2, 11 times overall)

    3rd ball = three way tie 07 (x3), 11 (x3) and 15 (x3)

    4th ball = 25 (drawn 4 times in position 4, 7 times overall)

    5th ball = 33 (drawn 6 times in position 5, 11 times overall)

    6th ball = Tie... 41 (x4), 49 (x4)

     

    The most popular number in any position... a tie between 07 and 33 with 11 appearances in 33 draws EACH... but only 3 times did they appear together in the same draw...

    the 100% range as observed so far in the match6 (by position) is

    Pos1 = 01 to 24

    Pos2 = 02 to 30

    Pos3 = 06 to 36

    Pos4 = 10 to 43

    Pos5 = 11 to 48

    Pos6 = 28 to 49

    Playing more than one ticket per game is betting against yourself.

      Avatar
      Columbia,Pa
      United States
      Member #3522
      January 27, 2004
      372 Posts
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      Posted: May 22, 2004, 4:29 pm - IP Logged

      At this point there's not much to analyze with the Pa Match6 game. It's a young game with only 33 drawings. Two numbers have never been drawn. It may be a couple of years before we even start getting enough data for useful pattern and trend analysis. 

      Chas

        JAP69's avatar - alas
        South Carolina
        United States
        Member #6
        November 4, 2001
        8790 Posts
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        Posted: May 22, 2004, 4:33 pm - IP Logged
        Quote: Originally posted by hypersoniq on May 22, 2004



        I separate the draws into individual positions... waiting until the end to combine them into a pick...

        sometimes the data has ball#3 lower than ball#2... even tho the history is in sorted order (because draw order has too wide of a range to be useful)

        an example... P.A. match6

        most popular numbers (BY POSITION)

        1st Ball = 02 (drawn 9 times in position 1, 10 times overall)

        2nd Ball = 07 (drawn 5 times in position 2, 11 times overall)

        3rd ball = three way tie 07 (x3), 11 (x3) and 15 (x3)

        4th ball = 25 (drawn 4 times in position 4, 7 times overall)

        5th ball = 33 (drawn 6 times in position 5, 11 times overall)

        6th ball = Tie... 41 (x4), 49 (x4)

         

        The most popular number in any position... a tie between 07 and 33 with 11 appearances in 33 draws EACH... but only 3 times did they appear together in the same draw...

        the 100% range as observed so far in the match6 (by position) is

        Pos1 = 01 to 24

        Pos2 = 02 to 30

        Pos3 = 06 to 36

        Pos4 = 10 to 43

        Pos5 = 11 to 48

        Pos6 = 28 to 49




        What are you using to select your numbers if chosen by position?

        MAGA

          hypersoniq's avatar - 8ball
          Pennsylvania
          United States
          Member #1340
          April 6, 2003
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          Posted: May 22, 2004, 5:20 pm - IP Logged

          right now I am using a weighted average of statistics.

          I have the following stats for match6... MODE, Average Deviation, Mean, my own set of "lucky" numbers, standard deviation and finally a conglomerate average of all the other stats...

          They are generated based on the previous draw history to see if they help indicate where the next numbers will come from. Beside each set of 6 columns of stats (it is broken down by position) is a delta number, or how each generated number deviated from the actual draw results... at the BOTTOM of each column of deltas, I keep a running MODE, the most common number... I use an addition to "zero the mode" and create an error correction mask for each set of stats...

          AN example of a correction mask...

          Match6 Standard Deviation... by position = 04-07-08-08-05 ... not a playable set of numbers... to get each column's mode to zero, the following correction mask is applied... +2, 0, +16, +17, +22, +33... when combined, this generates a "pick" for the next drawing of 04-07-24-25-30-38 ... since I have the backtesting above I see that the best it has ever done was match 4 on drawing #2... I did not have the correction mask for drawing#2 so I did not match 4 ot 6 then... the main problem with the mask is that it adds a "hindsight" component... it can change with the stats over time but not dynamically enough.

          now, for each stat listed above, I have a "pick" for a total of 6 picks for the next draw... each set over time has a higher success rate in it's respective columns than others... I use a zero count to find out which... now I have a resultant matrix of zero counts...higher being better... for each pick in each position... I also have the 6 picks stacked to see the reference numbers... Using a weighting scheme giving the nod to the higher performers in each category, I get an average for each position...

          an example formula for generating one pick from 6...

          =(((L50*3)+(L51*5)+(L52*3)+(L53*6)+(L54*3)+(L55*4))/24)

          this takes the best pick in L53 and gives it a weight of 6 and the 3 least producing performers a weight of 3 each... as you can see it is a simple average.

          I use conditional formatting to show me zeros in the delta columns... I have alot of them... but not alot on any one line. Rather than abandon the work I put into the stats, I decided to use the weighted average to get what I was after from day 1... a single pick with ties to draw history that consistently gets closer to the draw results than a quick pick... Since Match6 goves you 2 QP's, PA had a few tries to beat my one line and my match6 numbers come closer... but not enough to cash in on 4/6 5/6 and 6/6 prizes... yet.

          I will continue to tweak the formulas, the next thing I need to add is short-term trend analysis to that one pick... I'm not there yet tho...

          Sure it's more complicated for the same losing ticket I could get easilyu with a QP... but it is fun putting it all together... because it is in excel... all i need do is update the draw history to add the new draw and the rest is automatic... a "quick" pick ;-)

          Playing more than one ticket per game is betting against yourself.

            hypersoniq's avatar - 8ball
            Pennsylvania
            United States
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            April 6, 2003
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            Posted: May 22, 2004, 5:21 pm - IP Logged

            as for my own lucky numbers ,it is a collection of everyone in the family's age... ranging from 7 to 40... it has been the best single performer to date... in match6 and cash5... but no jackpots yet...

            Playing more than one ticket per game is betting against yourself.

              San Diego
              United States
              Member #4520
              May 1, 2004
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              Posted: May 22, 2004, 10:18 pm - IP Logged
              Quote: Originally posted by keystonechas on May 22, 2004



              At this point there's not much to analyze with the Pa Match6 game. It's a young game with only 33 drawings. Two numbers have never been drawn. It may be a couple of years before we even start getting enough data for useful pattern and trend analysis. 

              Chas





              That's a much more serious fallacy than you indicate here. I don't know the PA Match6 ballset size, but for 6/49, Even if you have 4000 drawings, at twice a week for 40 years, you are still only looking at 0.030 percent of all combinations possible, surely not enough for a pattern. And that's exactly what the lottery wants to happen. It's like drawing conclusions on the earth's fossil record based on the dvents of the last century.

              I am rounding numbers grossly here, but it suffices for my point.

                RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                mid-Ohio
                United States
                Member #9
                March 24, 2001
                19831 Posts
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                Posted: May 22, 2004, 10:34 pm - IP Logged

                Ohio SuperLottoPlus have 402 drawings 07/15/00 - 05/22/04.
                The distribution of the numbers drawn so far are very similar to the distribution of all the possible combinations.

                 SUMS = 57 TO 239
                 RANGE= 13 TO 48
                 GAPS = 1 TO 33

                 COLUMN 1 = 1 TO 35
                 COLUMN 2 = 2 TO 37
                 COLUMN 3 = 4 TO 44
                 COLUMN 4 = 7 TO 45
                 COLUMN 5 = 14 TO 48
                 COLUMN 6 = 18 TO 49
                    BONUS = 1 TO 49

                RJOh

                 * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                   
                             Evil Looking       

                  johnph77's avatar - avatar
                  CA
                  United States
                  Member #2987
                  December 10, 2003
                  832 Posts
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                  Posted: May 22, 2004, 10:48 pm - IP Logged

                  FYI -

                  Positional frequency charts:  http://www.johnph77.com/math/lotfreq.html

                  Sum chart for 6/49:  http://www.johnph77.com/math/lotsum.html#c6049

                  gla

                  Blessed Saint Leibowitz, keep 'em dreamin' down there..... 

                  Next week's convention for Psychics and Prognosticators has been cancelled due to unforeseen circumstances.

                   =^.^=

                    Johannesburg
                    South Africa
                    Member #4640
                    May 12, 2004
                    178 Posts
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                    Posted: May 23, 2004, 4:43 am - IP Logged

                    If lottery numbers dont totally follow the ball range"regulation,We could have missed big winners many times.