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Enough Draws?

Topic closed. 6 replies. Last post 13 years ago by hypersoniq.

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Greenwich, CT
United States
Member #4793
May 24, 2004
1822 Posts
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Posted: May 24, 2004, 8:46 pm - IP Logged

Hey, I'm a new member, but I've been browsing the boards for a few weeks.  I keep seeing comments on how there have not been enough draws in PB and MM to make studying past history worthwhile or effective.  I tend not to agree...I feel that 211 draws for MM and 170 draws for PB is an accurate enough sampling of the 100 million+ possible combos.  My guess would be that even after 50 draws you could have a relatively accurate sample of numbers.  Does anyone share this view?  Or if not, why do you disagree?

    JAP69's avatar - alas
    South Carolina
    United States
    Member #6
    November 4, 2001
    8790 Posts
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    Posted: May 24, 2004, 9:11 pm - IP Logged

    I agree.
    I only do the pick 5 right now but I think the same theory would apply to the jackpot games  as well. I look for the probability of each individual number when it may be drawn again. The draw history you mention is enough to find the probability of each individual number. Wether that probability occurs or not when that number is chosen is found out on the next draw.
    I do not see where past combination history would have a factor in individual number probability.

    MAGA

      Johannesburg
      South Africa
      Member #4640
      May 12, 2004
      178 Posts
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      Posted: May 24, 2004, 9:38 pm - IP Logged

      Because lotto is all randomness,You can predict relying on as many past historcial draws as you want to.I often use past 10 draws and its working well.I think past 10 draws reflect the most probable trend best.

        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
        mid-Ohio
        United States
        Member #9
        March 24, 2001
        19831 Posts
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        Posted: May 24, 2004, 11:28 pm - IP Logged

        I play Buckeye5 (2611 drawings), OhioSuperLotto (402 drawings) and MegaMillioins (211 drawings) and have the history of them all.  So far more history has not equaled more wins.  Last Saturday, I picked 21 numbers to play in OH649 with parameters that had included at least three of the winning 60% of time in past drawings and not one winning number was in the group.  So far, history has been just a guide for what not to play, because winning combinations seldom repeat.

        RJOh

         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
           
                     Evil Looking       

          ayenowitall's avatar - rod serling4.jpg

          United States
          Member #4416
          April 22, 2004
          1075 Posts
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          Posted: May 25, 2004, 6:15 am - IP Logged

          I also look at draw history. I'm under no illusions about it though. How do past draws change the probability of any ball being drawn? Doesn't that remain constant?

            ayenowitall's avatar - rod serling4.jpg

            United States
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            April 22, 2004
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            Posted: May 25, 2004, 9:04 pm - IP Logged
            Quote: Originally posted by JAG331 on May 25, 2004



            In answer to aye, I think that evaluating a sequence of draws does change the likelihood, if not the probability, of certain balls being drawn in the future. 






            What is the difference between likelihood and probability? None, I think.

            Evaluating a sequence has no effect on the likelihood or probability of any number being selected, if you wish to make a distinction.

            The only time the probability of a ball being drawn changes is during the actual draw as balls are subsequently selected, but that doesn't change in favor of or against any particular ball(s). The remaining balls all have the same probability of being drawn.

              hypersoniq's avatar - 8ball
              Pennsylvania
              United States
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              April 6, 2003
              2450 Posts
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              Posted: May 28, 2004, 6:38 pm - IP Logged

              the difference between probability and likelihood can be found here...

              http://www.economics.soton.ac.uk/staff/aldrich/fisherguide/SECT.htm

              there is mention of the difference when dealing with fuzzy logic and neural net classification

              Playing more than one ticket per game is betting against yourself.