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Conditional Probabilties?

Topic closed. 1 reply. Last post 13 years ago by desparado.

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Thoth's avatar - binary
Findlay, Ohio
United States
Member #4855
May 28, 2004
400 Posts
Posted: June 2, 2004, 2:34 am - IP Logged

Hello everyone,

I have been reading over this site for well over a month now and I must say that I have enjoyed your posts and really like what I am seeing.

I have spent upwards of 10 years looking for a way to consistantly win the Pick 3 (Ohio) - unfortunately I have yet to come up with any surefire systems that guarantee a win within a short period of time on only a minimal investment.

Over the past month I have learned to look at the game in a whole new perspective and I feel if a breakthrough is ever going to happen its going to have to be soon.  Essentially this new perspective is comparable to flipping quarters - where heads is a win and tails is a loss, throw a group of 5 quarters into the air and the probabilty is such that you should land a winner 96% of the time.

Anyways (and not related to the above), I was wondering what everyones thoughts are regarding longterm probabilities and consecutive draws.

Suppose at random you choose 5 for the Position 1 digit in the Pick 3. The longterm probabilty is 91.137% that your 5 will hit somewhere (in Pos 1) within 23 consecutive drawings. In all cases, long term probabilities seem to hold true - at least in Ohio.

My question is - Do you suppose the drawings absolutely HAVE TO BE consecutive for probability to rule? Or can the drawings just simply be evenly spaced (geometrically distributed) over a period of time?

For Example:
If i was to keep track of the pick 3 games using Excel I would have 4 columns with the following lables:  Date    Combo    Game#    Line#

Date and Combo columns are obvious, game# would be the ongoing count of games from the very first pick 3 to present. The Line# would be one through ten (starting over every ten games) or whatever intervals you wanted to use.

Once the results were all entered on the spreadsheet you could sort it by Line #5 ascending, then by game# ascending and it would show you all drawings on line 5 in ascending order.

Now lets say you look at the last 20, 30 or even 40 draws on line 5 to try and determine the next Pos 1 outcome for the next line 5 drawing, Will probability play its role in the natural order of randomness or will you get an odd mix of repeats, way over due numbers or other anomalies?

~Probability=Odds in Motion~

    South Africa
    Member #4640
    May 12, 2004
    178 Posts
    Posted: June 2, 2004, 8:46 am - IP Logged

    its going to work some way,but not for all positions.