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Lottery Director slightly ahead!!

Topic closed. 32 replies. Last post 12 years ago by RJOh.

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paul762's avatar - lion

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Posted: July 8, 2004, 4:21 am - IP Logged

LANTERN - I'm giong to see how the new lottosync V1.8 performs, and if it's no better than my own selections I'll forget about lotto software. got 3 from 6 last night + 4 from 7 two nights before, this from the minimum 6 + 7 numbers, GH=2 numbers and LD=2 numbers, they also hit 1 number each the two nights before, these were using 8 numbers not 6 + 7.

good luck.

    LANTERN's avatar - kilroy 28_173_reasonably_small.jpg
    Tx
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    Posted: July 8, 2004, 1:48 pm - IP Logged

    Yes, but working with software teaches us a few things, that we might not have thought about otherwise and with software you can do some things that you can't without it, software can give you many ideas that you can start with and you can take it from there.

    Also as Pick-4 master says, proper use of the software is very important, it might not give you the right numbers by itself, but with help from you, it might or at least give you some help that you need, that together with something else might give you some numbers, or it might give you some new ideas about how you might be able to get the numbers or some numbers, even if a particular program can't by itself give you the numbers, it might be able to perform a task that you need so you or some other program can get some numbers, sometimes you have to use several programs in tandem or use several programs and have each do a particular task that is needed so in the end you get some numbers right.

    Also you can do some work with your head and or pencil and paper and some other work with lottery programs that in the end will get you some winning numbers.

    Even if a particular program can't give you the numbers it might still be able to help you in some way so you can get the numbers.

    I can't find any pick 3 programs that are good enough by themselves, but together with other programs and some work with wordpad or notepad and the job gets done.

    I have left the jackpot games alone, because of the pick 3, but now I know enough about the pick 3 and on august I will start to learn how to get numbers for the jackpot games, I have no idea how long this will take and if I will be able to do as well or as good as I do with the pick 3, I think that I will be happy if I get 3 numbers right out of 6  25% of the time and 4 out of 6   8% of the time, at least for a while, sooner or later I would like to get 3 numbers right out of 4  25% of the time.

    BibleOnline  ParishesOnline  ChristianRadioOnline   MassOnline   Mass

    "Ten measures of beauty descended to the world, nine were taken by Jerusalem."

      BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
      Dump Water Florida
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      Posted: July 9, 2004, 2:22 am - IP Logged
      Quote: Originally posted by paul762 on July 08, 2004



      LANTERN - I'm giong to see how the new lottosync V1.8 performs, and if it's no better than my own selections I'll forget about lotto software. got 3 from 6 last night + 4 from 7 two nights before, this from the minimum 6 + 7 numbers, GH=2 numbers and LD=2 numbers, they also hit 1 number each the two nights before, these were using 8 numbers not 6 + 7.

      good luck.






      Forget Gail Howard predictions.  Using about 200 past draws F3 set F4 clear V chart then run the Smart Picks 3,4,5, 6,7, C,D then the W report with F9 to include all the numbers, after each draw highlight the winning numbers.  Soon you will spot the groups that often contain winning numbers, wheel the numbers in those groups.  Works good for the Pick-5 games wheeling 20 to 25 numbers, make a 2if wheel in CoverMaster, waste of money to play those 3if wheels for Pick-5 if you pay attention to where you drop the numbers. BobP




        Belgium
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        Posted: July 9, 2004, 5:37 am - IP Logged

        The law of large numbers !

        often people rave over "systems" or techniques that have short term success. The fact is that we should look a lot further than that. Let's say I invented a "system" where we take the numbers of the last draw and multiply the odd numbers by 2 and divide the even by 2 to obtain the numbers to be drawn next. Or a system where I paint numbers on a wall, and throw darts at the numbers blindfolded in order to know what will be drawn next. (I've seen people enthousiastic about weirder systems) Obviously these systems are ridiculous, and yet, when you start to test them on certain occasions they may even produce you multiple 4 of 6 wins in a row. Does that mean they are valid ??? NO absolutely not, the initial success will very quickly turn to disaster. If you isolate a small number of independent trials with equal probability of success, one may see the balance of achieved success versus expected success (according to the probability) turn in your favor for a short while simply because of an inequal distribution of hits. (Large deviation)

        example: let's say the probability of success is 1 in 10

        we can expect the result of 30 independent trials to be like this where every zero stands for failure and 1 for success.

        000000100000000001000000000100

        Or you can get this :

        000100110000001000010100000100

        Often people conclude from such a situation that the system that produced the second example line is better than the system that produced the first example line. This is not true because the probability that the second example line will be followed by a result like this increases.

        0000000000000000000000000100000000000000000000000000000000010000000000000000000

        The law of large numbers says that we may see far more success than expected in a small isolated amount of trials, while dventually the larger the amount of trials becomes, the more the amount of success will tend toward the mathematical probability ! If one would do an infinite number of trials, the success should theoritically become exactly the probability. The deviation becomes smaller and smaller when the amount of trials rises. Eventually the deviation will become aprox. zero.

        From this we must conclude that an isolated success (even when it is a 5 out of 6 hit) does not mean anything at all. The only valid barometer for the performance of a system is when we measure the amount of success in an amount of trials of at least 10 times the probability of success. If the probability is 1 in 10, we should at least do 100 trials before jumping to conclusions. The larger the amount of trials, the more reliable the results.

        Derived from this we should conclude that a system capable of turning for example a probability of 1 in 9,915 (=the probability of hitting at least 3 numbers from a group of 9 in a 6/42 lotto) to 1 in 5 over at least 100 trials is by far more reliable than a system that produces three 4 of 6 hits in 10 trials.

        The illusion of combinatorial systems:

        The above conclusion only goes for systems predicting number groups, not for combinatorial systems that use all numbers from your lottery. It is fairly easy to create a combinatorial system that produces regular 3 out of 6 hits by using all numbers in your lotto. But these systems cannot improve the odds of winning the bigger prizes nor can they ever result in consistent money making. One simple rule proves this. If you cannot predict numbers, then every line of 6 numbers played from a combinatorial system will have an equal chance of winning the jackpot as a randomly generated 6 number line. Trying to increase the odds for matching 5 or 6 numbers with combinatorial so called tricks will inevitably lead to the need for playing disgustingly large amounts of combinations. Just like playing more random generated 6 number combinations increases your chances. The benefit is always zero with these systems, nomatter what you try! And yet, there are so many systems available on the net that use this misleading illusion !!!!! A few examples of such systems are lottotrix, honest lotto system, delta lotto system,... They are all based on errorous and misleading beliefs.

        Bottom line is : Don't jump to conclusions too fast when you have a streak of wins or losses. Only judge over large amounts of trials not single impressive hits from others. A system capable of doubling the odds to match 3 numbers consistently in a large amount of trials will certainly increase the odds for winning bigger prizes. This proves that such system is build on a solid basis. While systems that promote isolated big hits mostly prove nothing at all !!

          paul762's avatar - lion

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          Posted: July 9, 2004, 6:24 am - IP Logged

          GURU, does this mean V1.8 averages 3 from 9 every 5 draws now and not every 3 as previously posted? or was that just an example?


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            Posted: July 9, 2004, 7:08 am - IP Logged

            Paul:

            It was just an example.

              RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
              mid-Ohio
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              Posted: July 9, 2004, 11:33 am - IP Logged

              GURU,
              Let say you invented a "system" where you took the numbers of the last three drawings and used them to pick combinations for the next drawing. In the last Ohio Super Lotto drawing, you would have won the $17M jackpot.
               
              415    07/07/04    08 11 27 31 35 38  +32
              414    07/03/04    01 31 32 35 38 48  +26
              413    06/30/04    05 08 27 37 41 42  +07
              412    06/26/04    02 11 25 27 30 47  +15

              Does this mean the system is valid??? NO absolutely not, but who cares, the system only have to work once and you are a millionaire.

              RJOh

               * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                 
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                LANTERN's avatar - kilroy 28_173_reasonably_small.jpg
                Tx
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                Posted: July 9, 2004, 11:43 am - IP Logged

                That is one of the big reasons why filters and wheels are used, because they only have to work right once to get the big-one and untill then you can win smaller prices.

                It all has to do with the statistics of the game.

                BibleOnline  ParishesOnline  ChristianRadioOnline   MassOnline   Mass

                "Ten measures of beauty descended to the world, nine were taken by Jerusalem."

                  RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                  mid-Ohio
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                  Posted: July 9, 2004, 12:13 pm - IP Logged

                  That means there are a lot of non-valid systems out there that have already seen their best days and when someone tells you they won a jackpot using a certain systems,  it doesn't mean much but it is interesting.

                  RJOh

                   * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                     
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                    Belgium
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                    Posted: July 9, 2004, 1:25 pm - IP Logged

                    RJOH:

                    This is an example of extreme curve fitting !

                    Afterwards it is easy to find a "so called system" that won along the way albeit ridiculous, but the future is something different I'm afraid. That's where uncertainty kicks in.

                    When you hear a story in the news that someone survived crossing the ocean on a plank, this does not mean we all have to start travelling that way. Right ? Ok, it happened, the guy survived, but for ship designers and builders it is an isolated case without any value.

                    If you would find such a situation once a year in the same lottery, then it would mean something. Now it is just a coincidence that was impossible to foresee. Nothing points to the fact that this will happen again. (just like a second guy that tries sailing the ocean on a plank will most probably drown)

                      LANTERN's avatar - kilroy 28_173_reasonably_small.jpg
                      Tx
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                      Posted: July 9, 2004, 2:49 pm - IP Logged

                      RJOh

                      It might mean that if it did, then it might again, it also means that if you had seen it the first time and thought that it might again and had been wheeling (Full wheel) all 18 numbers for every draw there-after and playing them, you would had won the big-one.

                      But not really, because the bonus ball was not there the second time.

                      And even if it had been, it might not have been wheeled into the proper position.

                       

                      But with a partial wheel (And maybe some filters) you might had made some money. (?)

                      BibleOnline  ParishesOnline  ChristianRadioOnline   MassOnline   Mass

                      "Ten measures of beauty descended to the world, nine were taken by Jerusalem."

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                        Posted: July 9, 2004, 3:41 pm - IP Logged

                        Starting at drawing 392 to 415, 24 drawings there were only 6 that had 4 or more numbers out of the last 3 drawings.

                        Draw 395 4#'s out of draws 394, 393, 392 = 19#'s

                        Draw 403 4#'s out of draws 402, 401, 400 = 19#'s

                        Draw 405 4#'s out of draws 404, 403, 402 = 18#'s

                        Draw 407 6#'s out of draws 406, 405, 404 = 20#'s

                        Draw 410 4#'s out of draws 409, 408, 407 = 18#'s

                        Draw 415 7#'s out of draws 414, 413, 412 = 20#'s

                        I try to follow such activity and getting 4#'s out of the last 3 drawings happens about 25% of the time, more than 4#'s happens about 8.3% of the time.  There is something to say for repeating numbers though, watch those number that have skipped 7 or more drawings and then hit, to be possible repeaters. Also look to the numbers that are running at or above average hit rate for total past drawings to be possible repeaters.

                        Look at the history of the number 27 that was just drawn in the last drawing, it hit in draw 411 after skipping 16 draws and hit 3 more times in the next 4 draws.


                          Belgium
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                          Posted: July 9, 2004, 4:20 pm - IP Logged
                          Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on July 09, 2004



                          GURU,
                          Let say you invented a "system" where you took the numbers of the last three drawings and used them to pick combinations for the next drawing. In the last Ohio Super Lotto drawing, you would have won the $17M jackpot.
                           
                          415    07/07/04    08 11 27 31 35 38  +32
                          414    07/03/04    01 31 32 35 38 48  +26
                          413    06/30/04    05 08 27 37 41 42  +07
                          412    06/26/04    02 11 25 27 30 47  +15

                          Does this mean the system is valid??? NO absolutely not, but who cares, the system only have to work once and you are a millionaire.

                          RJOh





                          Even if this would happen 2 or 3 times a year it would probably not win you the jackpot.

                          The last 3 draws contain 20 different numbers 1 2 5 7 8 11 15 25 26 27 30 31 32 35 37 38 41 42 47 48

                          I suppose the total amount of numbers in this lottery is 49.

                          The chance of hitting 7 from 20 numbers in this lottery is 1 against 1108

                          The chance of hitting the main 6 from 20 numbers is 1 against 361

                          Far from likely to hit the jackpot unless you play aprox. 361 combinations each time !!??

                          Suppose it does not happen again, you would be in the poor house soon

                            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                            Posted: July 9, 2004, 4:23 pm - IP Logged

                            UCI1,

                            My SuperLotto file shows it(4 numbers in previous 3 drawings) has happen a total of 41 time which includes the 12 times it happen in the previous 2 drawings.  It also show that on 08/03/02 the number 10 finally hit after 61 no-shows.

                            RJOh

                             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                               
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                              Posted: July 9, 2004, 5:47 pm - IP Logged
                              Quote: O