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Math Models vs Actual Results

Topic closed. 11 replies. Last post 12 years ago by JKING.

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What's your approach

Use a traditional math model approach only [ 4 ]  [28.57%]
Use actuals for determing a math model [ 10 ]  [71.43%]
Total Valid Votes [ 14 ]  
Discarded Votes [ 6 ]  
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Posted: September 6, 2004, 9:48 pm - IP Logged

There seems to be a difference in how people at the post are attaching the same problem. The differences are good because it makes for alot of good discussions.

Where do you stand?

You are a slave to the choices you have made.  jk

Even a blind squirrel will occasioanlly find an acorn.

    www.winnerspost.com
    China
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    Posted: September 9, 2004, 10:52 am - IP Logged

    actuals

      hypersoniq's avatar - 8ball
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      Posted: September 15, 2004, 5:45 pm - IP Logged

      I have always used actuals...

      Playing more than one ticket per game is betting against yourself.

        LottoFan's avatar - nw sorc2.jpg
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        Posted: September 21, 2004, 5:54 pm - IP Logged

        Actuals.

          MADDOG10's avatar - smoke
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          Posted: September 25, 2004, 12:29 pm - IP Logged

            actuals

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            Greenwich, CT
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            Posted: September 25, 2004, 1:31 pm - IP Logged

            I've been using actuals since I started my jackpot quest in February.  In the last month I've also been using the theoretical math models to chart actual drawing variance.  I think there is a danger in using actual drawings in place of, not in conjunction with, theoretical models...your analysis may come out skewed.

              hypersoniq's avatar - 8ball
              Pennsylvania
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              Posted: September 25, 2004, 4:08 pm - IP Logged

              In my experiences with excel, I find the skew comes from the limited number of sample draws versus the total number of possibilities. The theoretical models tell you what would happen after the dust settles, where the numbers are expected to be frequency-wise... observations don't agree because there are only usually a few hundred or a few thousand results and millions of possibilities.

              The theory helps set ranges, but observation helps narrow them down to useful size.

              here's an example from the MUSL powerball...

              5/53

              Theoretical ranges...

              (Sorted Order)
              First ball- 1 to 49 - 48 numbers to pick from
              Second Ball- 2 to 50 - 48 numbers to pick from
              THird Ball- 3 to 51 - 48 numbers to pick from
              Fourth Ball- 4 to 52 - 48 numbers to pick from
              Fifth Ball- 5 to 53 - 48 numbers to pick from


              Observed Range to date...
              First ball- 1 to 32 - leaves 31 numbers to pick from
              Second Ball- 2 to 45 - leaves 43 numbers to pick from
              THird Ball- 6 to 50 - leaves 44 numbers to pick from
              Fourth Ball- 8 to 52 - leaves 44 numbers to pick from
              Fifth Ball- 10 to 53 - leaves 43 numbers to pick from


              Observed Range with spikes trimmed (3 or more occurrences in boundary numbers)...
              First ball- 1 to 31 - leaves 30 numbers to pick from
              Second Ball- 5 to 34 - leaves 30 numbers to pick from
              THird Ball- 14 to 46 - leaves 32 numbers to pick from
              Fourth Ball- 17 to 50 - leaves 33 numbers to pick from
              Fifth Ball- 32 to 53 - leaves 21 numbers to pick from

              We know all high or all low spikes can and do happen, but to be within 80% of the actual observed ranges of all 205 powerball draw results since the new matrix went into play (10-9-2002), the numbers above better serve your immediate needs.

              There are also gaps within those ranges...

              Observed Range with spikes trimmed (with missing #s and #s drawn less than 3 times)...
              First ball- 1 to 31 (21-22-23-24-25-26-27-28-29-30) leaves 20 numbers to pick from
              Second Ball- 5 to 34 (27) leaves 29 numbers to pick from
              THird Ball- 14 to 46 (15-41-42-43-44) leaves 27 numbers to pick from
              Fourth Ball- 17 to 50 (18-19-23-24-36) leaves 28 numbers to pick from
              Fifth Ball- 32 to 53 (37) leaves 20 numbers to pick from

              powerball itself is a tough nut to crack...

              range is 1 to 42, in theory... and  1 to 41 observed (using 3 or more hits to count)...

              if you remove the missing and low frequency numbers, you get

              Powerball - 1 to 41 (12-14-24-26-27)

              picking numbers from the above lists will not guarantee a win, you just put yourself in the observed history "Hit Zone"... Unfortunately the numbers don't know what ranges they are supposed to fall into, so luck is still a piece of the puzzle... 1% system, 98% luck, 1% actually buying a ticket to be in the game...

              good luck and keep the math flowing... cool forum!

              Playing more than one ticket per game is betting against yourself.

                S.Windsor, CT
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                May 4, 2004
                119 Posts
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                Posted: September 25, 2004, 4:47 pm - IP Logged
                Quote: Originally posted by hypersoniq on September 25, 2004



                In my experiences with excel, I find the skew comes from the limited number of sample draws versus the total number of possibilities. The theoretical models tell you what would happen after the dust settles, where the numbers are expected to be frequency-wise... observations don't agree because there are only usually a few hundred or a few thousand results and millions of possibilities.

                The theory helps set ranges, but observation helps narrow them down to useful size.

                here's an example from the MUSL powerball...

                5/53

                Theoretical ranges...

                (Sorted Order)
                First ball- 1 to 49 - 48 numbers to pick from
                Second Ball- 2 to 50 - 48 numbers to pick from
                THird Ball- 3 to 51 - 48 numbers to pick from
                Fourth Ball- 4 to 52 - 48 numbers to pick from
                Fifth Ball- 5 to 53 - 48 numbers to pick from


                Observed Range to date...
                First ball- 1 to 32 - leaves 31 numbers to pick from
                Second Ball- 2 to 45 - leaves 43 numbers to pick from
                THird Ball- 6 to 50 - leaves 44 numbers to pick from
                Fourth Ball- 8 to 52 - leaves 44 numbers to pick from
                Fifth Ball- 10 to 53 - leaves 43 numbers to pick from


                Observed Range with spikes trimmed (3 or more occurrences in boundary numbers)...
                First ball- 1 to 31 - leaves 30 numbers to pick from
                Second Ball- 5 to 34 - leaves 30 numbers to pick from
                THird Ball- 14 to 46 - leaves 32 numbers to pick from
                Fourth Ball- 17 to 50 - leaves 33 numbers to pick from
                Fifth Ball- 32 to 53 - leaves 21 numbers to pick from

                We know all high or all low spikes can and do happen, but to be within 80% of the actual observed ranges of all 205 powerball draw results since the new matrix went into play (10-9-2002), the numbers above better serve your immediate needs.

                There are also gaps within those ranges...

                Observed Range with spikes trimmed (with missing #s and #s drawn less than 3 times)...
                First ball- 1 to 31 (21-22-23-24-25-26-27-28-29-30) leaves 20 numbers to pick from
                Second Ball- 5 to 34 (27) leaves 29 numbers to pick from
                THird Ball- 14 to 46 (15-41-42-43-44) leaves 27 numbers to pick from
                Fourth Ball- 17 to 50 (18-19-23-24-36) leaves 28 numbers to pick from
                Fifth Ball- 32 to 53 (37) leaves 20 numbers to pick from

                powerball itself is a tough nut to crack...

                range is 1 to 42, in theory... and  1 to 41 observed (using 3 or more hits to count)...

                if you remove the missing and low frequency numbers, you get

                Powerball - 1 to 41 (12-14-24-26-27)

                picking numbers from the above lists will not guarantee a win, you just put yourself in the observed history "Hit Zone"... Unfortunately the numbers don't know what ranges they are supposed to fall into, so luck is still a piece of the puzzle... 1% system, 98% luck, 1% actually buying a ticket to be in the game...

                good luck and keep the math flowing... cool forum!




                  S.Windsor, CT
                  United States
                  Member #4580
                  May 4, 2004
                  119 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: September 25, 2004, 4:54 pm - IP Logged
                  Quote: Originally posted by Bertil on September 25, 2004



                  Quote: Originally posted by hypersoniq on September 25, 2004



                  In my experiences with excel, I find the skew comes from the limited number of sample draws versus the total number of possibilities. The theoretical models tell you what would happen after the dust settles, where the numbers are expected to be frequency-wise... observations don't agree because there are only usually a few hundred or a few thousand results and millions of possibilities.

                  The theory helps set ranges, but observation helps narrow them down to useful size.

                  here's an example from the MUSL powerball...

                  5/53

                  Theoretical ranges...

                  (Sorted Order)
                  First ball- 1 to 49 - 48 numbers to pick from
                  Second Ball- 2 to 50 - 48 numbers to pick from
                  THird Ball- 3 to 51 - 48 numbers to pick from
                  Fourth Ball- 4 to 52 - 48 numbers to pick from
                  Fifth Ball- 5 to 53 - 48 numbers to pick from


                  Observed Range to date...
                  First ball- 1 to 32 - leaves 31 numbers to pick from
                  Second Ball- 2 to 45 - leaves 43 numbers to pick from
                  THird Ball- 6 to 50 - leaves 44 numbers to pick from
                  Fourth Ball- 8 to 52 - leaves 44 numbers to pick from
                  Fifth Ball- 10 to 53 - leaves 43 numbers to pick from


                  Observed Range with spikes trimmed (3 or more occurrences in boundary numbers)...
                  First ball- 1 to 31 - leaves 30 numbers to pick from
                  Second Ball- 5 to 34 - leaves 30 numbers to pick from
                  THird Ball- 14 to 46 - leaves 32 numbers to pick from
                  Fourth Ball- 17 to 50 - leaves 33 numbers to pick from
                  Fifth Ball- 32 to 53 - leaves 21 numbers to pick from

                  We know all high or all low spikes can and do happen, but to be within 80% of the actual observed ranges of all 205 powerball draw results since the new matrix went into play (10-9-2002), the numbers above better serve your immediate needs.

                  There are also gaps within those ranges...

                  Observed Range with spikes trimmed (with missing #s and #s drawn less than 3 times)...
                  First ball- 1 to 31 (21-22-23-24-25-26-27-28-29-30) leaves 20 numbers to pick from
                  Second Ball- 5 to 34 (27) leaves 29 numbers to pick from
                  THird Ball- 14 to 46 (15-41-42-43-44) leaves 27 numbers to pick from
                  Fourth Ball- 17 to 50 (18-19-23-24-36) leaves 28 numbers to pick from
                  Fifth Ball- 32 to 53 (37) leaves 20 numbers to pick from

                  powerball itself is a tough nut to crack...

                  range is 1 to 42, in theory... and  1 to 41 observed (using 3 or more hits to count)...

                  if you remove the missing and low frequency numbers, you get

                  Powerball - 1 to 41 (12-14-24-26-27)

                  picking numbers from the above lists will not guarantee a win, you just put yourself in the observed history "Hit Zone"... Unfortunately the numbers don't know what ranges they are supposed to fall into, so luck is still a piece of the puzzle... 1% system, 98% luck, 1% actually buying a ticket to be in the game...

                  good luck and keep the math flowing... cool forum!





                  Hypersoniq,

                  Please disregard my failed attempt above to communicate.

                  Is your above analysis based on the ball frequencies reported by MUSL on it site or do they refer to the about 110 draws since the game went 5/53 on Oct.9,2002?  If you based it on the new game data, could you tell us where they are posted?

                  Bertil 




                    hypersoniq's avatar - 8ball
                    Pennsylvania
                    United States
                    Member #1340
                    April 6, 2003
                    2450 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: September 25, 2004, 5:25 pm - IP Logged

                    I only count the draws since 10/9/02... there are currently 205 draws under the new matrix with draw 206 tonight.

                    I don't know if they are posted anywhere, I used game history and excel to get frequency data. I keep a chart of occurrences in several columns (overall, positional (sort order) and positional (draw order)).

                    here is the game history since then...

                    Draw Date---Draw#--WB1-WB2-WB3--WB4-WB5---PB
                    10/09/2002----001----09----10----38----42----43----05
                    10/12/2002----002----23----26----46----49----52----28
                    10/16/2002----003----08----11----24----31----37----41
                    10/19/2002----004----04----18----20----25----42----29
                    10/23/2002----005----02----14----18----30----31----36
                    10/26/2002----006----12----14----27----33----39----41
                    10/30/2002----007----09----16----19----23----41----12
                    11/02/2002----008----08----15----32----34----35----34
                    11/06/2002----009----09----11----12----17----19----23
                    11/09/2002----010----30----36----38----40----53----08
                    11/13/2002----011----18----23----31----38----50----20
                    11/16/2002----012----32----33----35----40----51----01
                    11/20/2002----013----14----21----22----29----44----03
                    11/23/2002----014----15----16----19----21----49----05
                    11/27/2002----015----01----20----25----40----53----19
                    11/30/2002----016----01----04----19----21----29----08
                    12/04/2002----017----13----20----21----35----40----35
                    12/07/2002----018----03----17----27----32----48----01
                    12/11/2002----019----06----12----14----22----33----21
                    12/14/2002----020----08----17----24----42----44----37
                    12/18/2002----021----02----14----33----50----52----22
                    12/21/2002----022----05----22----34----39----52----30
                    12/25/2002----023----05----14----16----29----53----07
                    12/28/2002----024----02----15----38----43----50----29
                    01/01/2003----025----18----34----42----43----53----17
                    01/04/2003----026----01----11----37----39----40----23
                    01/08/2003----027----16----22----26----44----46----20
                    01/11/2003----028----09----45----46----48----51----02
                    01/15/2003----029----04----17----30----42----44----15
                    01/18/2003----030----04----17----34----48----52----10
                    01/22/2003----031----20----28----30----40----43----03
                    01/25/2003----032----10----12----15----49----51----21
                    01/29/2003----033----10----12----27----30----53----28
                    02/01/2003----034----02----11----16----21----39----42
                    02/05/2003----035----02----05----07----09----48----32
                    02/08/2003----036----02----13----20----21----23----35
                    02/12/2003----037----07----12----19----47----49----06
                    02/15/2003----038----01----26----29----38----42----30
                    02/19/2003----039----06----11----16----17----44----26
                    02/22/2003----040----02----05----06----09----10----26
                    02/26/2003----041----10----23----27----31----34----11
                    03/01/2003----042----06----07----27----28----41----03
                    03/05/2003----043----02----24----28----37----44----06
                    03/08/2003----044----01----05----20----21----45----24
                    03/12/2003----045----05----24----25----44----52----20
                    03/15/2003----046----12----30----41----42----52----35
                    03/19/2003----047----19----37----40----47----51----40
                    03/22/2003----048----05----29----31----47----49----25
                    03/26/2003----049----10----28----31----40----52----41
                    03/29/2003----050----02----09----17----25----36----08
                    04/02/2003----051----12----17----35----47----50----13
                    04/05/2003----052----07----14----23----46----49----20
                    04/09/2003----053----06----28----35----38----51----41
                    04/12/2003----054----17----27----28----35----52----02
                    04/16/2003----055----04----25----39----41----50----31
                    04/19/2003----056----10----18----40----46----48----30
                    04/23/2003----057----14----15----23----31----51----34
                    04/26/2003----058----05----11----13----22----36----31
                    04/30/2003----059----07----13----17----32----33----35
                    05/03/2003----060----14----21----39----40----47----06
                    05/07/2003----061----13----18----34----35----51----28
                    05/10/2003----062----01----02----06----10----20----38
                    05/14/2003----063----20----33----34----45----52----21
                    05/17/2003----064----05----13----18----42----50----04
                    05/21/2003----065----04----30----32----35----41----09
                    05/24/2003----066----10----42----48----49----50----42
                    05/28/2003----067----06----16----17----19----38----16
                    05/31/2003----068----10----26----30----46----52----35
                    06/04/2003----069----02----14----24----26----53----01
                    06/07/2003----070----11----17----26----27----40----06
                    06/11/2003----071----12----16----43----44----46----38
                    06/14/2003----072----12----26----40----42----50----03
                    06/18/2003----073----19----20----21----45----46----20
                    06/21/2003----074----15----19----27----36----44----17
                    06/25/2003----075----05----26----35----43----50----04
                    06/28/2003----076----07----09----14----41----44----25
                    07/02/2003----077----16----17----24----26----45----36
                    07/05/2003----078----05----17----25----37----49----21
                    07/09/2003----079----19----21----26----31----51----40
                    07/12/2003----080----06----16----50----51----52----23
                    07/16/2003----081----18----27----28----30----49----20
                    07/19/2003----082----14----29----30----34----48----01
                    07/23/2003----083----04----16----34----37----51----38
                    07/26/2003----084----09----10----30----32----34----11
                    07/30/2003----085----18----22----26----31----49----28
                    08/02/2003----086----17----40----41----42----46----25
                    08/06/2003----087----11----14----26----31----48----30
                    08/09/2003----088----18----23----25----26----40----15
                    08/13/2003----089----26----31----35----44----48----32
                    08/16/2003----090----13----15----20----37----42----07
                    08/20/2003----091----08----22----35----46----48----15
                    08/23/2003----092----01----39----46----50----51----07
                    08/27/2003----093----24----31----36----42----46----32
                    08/30/2003----094----09----35----36----41----49----33
                    09/03/2003----095----06----09----19----24----40----31
                    09/06/2003----096----06----15----18----20----41----17
                    09/10/2003----097----03----17----29----30----33----34
                    09/13/2003----098----06----10----19----28----32----39
                    09/17/2003----099----02----19----24----32----34----02
                    09/20/2003----100----11----13----28----31----33----29
                    09/24/2003----101----17----19----20----28----47----37
                    09/27/2003----102----09----20----30----41----48----29
                    10/01/2003----103----04----05----19----21----50----41
                    10/04/2003----104----08----13----29----44----48----36
                    10/08/2003----105----01----06----07----08----25----18
                    10/11/2003----106----11----14----21----32----45----21
                    10/15/2003----107----06----09----29----39----52----08
                    10/18/2003----108----22----25----33----34----35----14
                    10/22/2003----109----03----25----27----28----53----35
                    10/25/2003----110----06----17----45----47----48----04
                    10/29/2003----111----08----19----22----34----53----29
                    11/01/2003----112----16----19----34----37----47----18
                    11/05/2003----113----06----20----27----38----39----31
                    11/08/2003----114----05----08----24----38----52----22
                    11/12/2003----115----07----11----19----20----22----01
                    11/15/2003----116----08----20----22----32----52----39
                    11/19/2003----117----16----26----36----42----47----33
                    11/22/2003----118----09----12----17----29----45----04
                    11/26/2003----119----01----03----16----37----41----19
                    11/29/2003----120----14----36----39----43----51----15
                    12/03/2003----121----01----10----35----37----43----30
                    12/06/2003----122----21----24----37----41----45----39
                    12/10/2003----123----04----17----26----37----40----15
                    12/13/2003----124----17----19----25----26----44----19
                    12/17/2003----125----15----18----19----21----43----07
                    12/20/2003----126----12----20----24----25----48----37
                    12/24/2003----127----01----06----31----34----44----25
                    12/27/2003----128----16----17----32----34----43----31
                    12/31/2003----129----05----07----18----28----35----01
                    01/03/2004----130----04----05----22----41----42----02
                    01/07/2004----131----04----07----14----18----44----25
                    01/10/2004----132----02----13----19----27----50----05
                    01/14/2004----133----12----33----40----44----50----40
                    01/17/2004----134----08----09----32----45----48----15
                    01/21/2004----135----13----17----34----41----45----17
                    01/24/2004----136----01----05----37----38----53----31
                    01/28/2004----137----08----13----17----39----48----34
                    01/31/2004----138----03----06----27----37----41----38
                    02/04/2004----139----07----12----17----25----32----33
                    02/07/2004----140----31----34----35----39----46----03
                    02/11/2004----141----05----16----28----50----52----04
                    02/14/2004----142----10----24----25----35----43----32
                    02/18/2004----143----04----24----36----44----50----02
                    02/21/2004----144----15----22----26----48----53----14
                    02/25/2004----145----04----05----11----17----47----35
                    02/28/2004----146----06----25----26----52----53----40
                    03/03/2004----147----05----11----17----23----53----34
                    03/06/2004----148----09----17----46----49----51----09
                    03/10/2004----149----10----20----22----41----49----06
                    03/13/2004----150----11----44----45----48----50----02
                    03/17/2004----151----07----15----20----24----43----05
                    03/20/2004----152----02----14----24----27----44----06
                    03/24/2004----153----18----20----39----43----47----31
                    03/27/2004----154----02----15----17----30----34----32
                    03/31/2004----155----15----31----34----39----50----35
                    04/03/2004----156----06----07----26----32----43----13
                    04/07/2004----157----02----07----16----35----37----10
                    04/10/2004----158----02----09----30----47----48----40
                    04/14/2004----159----01----06----20----22----38----22
                    04/17/2004----160----04----29----34----41----42----11
                    04/21/2004----161----08----11----34----42----51----27
                    04/24/2004----162----02----13----22----35----44----28
                    04/28/2004----163----27----34----42----49----52----23
                    05/01/2004----164----01----10----34----39----47----33
                    05/05/2004----165----09----16----21----25----32----08
                    05/08/2004----166----03----09----17----37----43----39
                    05/12/2004----167----11----31----35----42----45----35
                    05/15/2004----168----01----26----27----43----46----31
                    05/19/2004----169----14----15----31----37----41----31
                    05/22/2004----170----01----07----36----42----49----41
                    05/26/2004----171----03----10----31----35----38----16
                    05/29/2004----172----01----16----30----32----39----02
                    06/02/2004----173----05----06----12----26----29----30
                    06/05/2004----174----05----26----39----41----42----39
                    06/09/2004----175----01----31----33----37----50----40
                    06/12/2004----176----06----20----43----48----52----28
                    06/16/2004----177----16----18----26----39----48----22
                    06/19/2004----178----02----09----36----37----48----16
                    06/23/2004----179----09----12----16----20----39----01
                    06/26/2004----180----09----17----32----41----47----08
                    06/30/2004----181----02----29----31----45----47----04
                    07/03/2004----182----03----08----12----30----47----23
                    07/07/2004----183----18----25----30----34----41----10
                    07/10/2004----184----16----17----23----26----44----13
                    07/14/2004----185----09----24----45----49----50----37
                    07/17/2004----186----20----23----36----45----50----09
                    07/21/2004----187----03----31----38----42----46----02
                    07/24/2004----188----02----03----13----29----52----25
                    07/28/2004----189----04----19----39----40----50----22
                    07/31/2004----190----14----31----35----45----47----35
                    08/04/2004----191----11----22----26----37----51----21
                    08/07/2004----192----08----09----16----34----48----08
                    08/11/2004----193----05----10----29----33----51----35
                    08/14/2004----194----04----10----11----18----43----41
                    08/18/2004----195----31----33----35----40----42----40
                    08/21/2004----196----03----16----27----39----40----03
                    08/25/2004----197----01----30----32----37----50----19
                    08/28/2004----198----06----30----35----39----45----31
                    09/01/2004----199----31----33----44----45----51----31
                    09/04/2004----200----13----15----25----26----46----28
                    09/08/2004----201----02----04----28----33----52----18
                    09/11/2004----202----25----34----36----46----49----09
                    09/15/2004----203----01----08----17----28----50----20
                    09/18/2004----204----02----14----27----31----36----09
                    09/22/2004----205----06----14----34----37----40----07

                    Playing more than one ticket per game is betting against yourself.

                      S.Windsor, CT
                      United States
                      Member #4580
                      May 4, 2004
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                      Posted: September 25, 2004, 9:10 pm - IP Logged

                       

                          Hypersoniq,

                          Your table of data is greatly appreciated and might serve as a basis for other kinds of

                          analysis and predictions.

                          Bertil

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                        Member #5599
                        July 13, 2004
                        1185 Posts
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                        Posted: October 4, 2004, 8:04 pm - IP Logged

                        Pure statistical analysis is a proven truth. It's a great way to determine what your your error ratios are going to be when you select your reduction criteria. But, seems to be lacking in the area of current dvents. I think the most useful information, after the basic statistics has been performed, is applying statistical concepts to the current data, occurrences over a range, last time picked, pairings,....etc. The question is, is what is the best combination to yeild to best results.

                        Would anyone like to comment one what they think is the best combinaton?

                        You are a slave to the choices you have made.  jk

                        Even a blind squirrel will occasioanlly find an acorn.