Math Models vs Actual ResultsPrev Topic Next Topic

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What's your approach

Use a traditional math model approach only

[ 4 ]

[ 28.6% ]

Use actuals for determing a math model

[ 10 ]

[ 71.4% ]

Total valid votes

[ 14 ]

Discarded votes

[ 6 ]

JKING

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Sep 6, 2004, 9:48 pm

There seems to be a difference in how people at the post are attaching the same problem. The differences are good because it makes for alot of good discussions.
Where do you stand?

You are a slave to the choices you have made. jk

Even a blind squirrel will occasionally find an acorn.

There is no elevator to success, you will have to take the stairs.
trance

www.winnerspost.com
China
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July 22, 2004
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Sep 9, 2004, 10:52 am

actuals
hypersoniq

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Sep 15, 2004, 5:45 pm

I have always used actuals...

Have an EXCELlent day!
LottoFan

Arizona
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May 6, 2004
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Sep 21, 2004, 5:54 pm

Actuals.
MADDOG10

50

Beautiful Florida
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July 18, 2004
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Sep 25, 2004, 12:29 pm

actuals
JAG331

Greenwich, CT
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Sep 25, 2004, 1:31 pm

I've been using actuals since I started my jackpot quest in February. In the last month I've also been using the theoretical math models to chart actual drawing variance. I think there is a danger in using actual drawings in place of, not in conjunction with, theoretical models...your analysis may come out skewed.
hypersoniq

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April 6, 2003
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Sep 25, 2004, 4:08 pm

In my experiences with excel, I find the skew comes from the limited number of sample draws versus the total number of possibilities. The theoretical models tell you what would happen after the dust settles, where the numbers are expected to be frequency-wise... observations don't agree because there are only usually a few hundred or a few thousand results and millions of possibilities.
The theory helps set ranges, but observation helps narrow them down to useful size.
here's an example from the MUSL powerball...
5/53
Theoretical ranges...
(Sorted Order)
First ball- 1 to 49 - 48 numbers to pick from
Second Ball- 2 to 50 - 48 numbers to pick from
THird Ball- 3 to 51 - 48 numbers to pick from
Fourth Ball- 4 to 52 - 48 numbers to pick from
Fifth Ball- 5 to 53 - 48 numbers to pick from

Observed Range to date...
First ball- 1 to 32 - leaves 31 numbers to pick from
Second Ball- 2 to 45 - leaves 43 numbers to pick from
THird Ball- 6 to 50 - leaves 44 numbers to pick from
Fourth Ball- 8 to 52 - leaves 44 numbers to pick from
Fifth Ball- 10 to 53 - leaves 43 numbers to pick from

Observed Range with spikes trimmed (3 or more occurrences in boundary numbers)...
First ball- 1 to 31 - leaves 30 numbers to pick from
Second Ball- 5 to 34 - leaves 30 numbers to pick from
THird Ball- 14 to 46 - leaves 32 numbers to pick from
Fourth Ball- 17 to 50 - leaves 33 numbers to pick from
Fifth Ball- 32 to 53 - leaves 21 numbers to pick from
We know all high or all low spikes can and do happen, but to be within 80% of the actual observed ranges of all 205 powerball draw results since the new matrix went into play (10-9-2002), the numbers above better serve your immediate needs.
There are also gaps within those ranges...
Observed Range with spikes trimmed (with missing #s and #s drawn less than 3 times)...
First ball- 1 to 31 (21-22-23-24-25-26-27-28-29-30) leaves 20 numbers to pick from
Second Ball- 5 to 34 (27) leaves 29 numbers to pick from
THird Ball- 14 to 46 (15-41-42-43-44) leaves 27 numbers to pick from
Fourth Ball- 17 to 50 (18-19-23-24-36) leaves 28 numbers to pick from
Fifth Ball- 32 to 53 (37) leaves 20 numbers to pick from
powerball itself is a tough nut to crack...
range is 1 to 42, in theory... and 1 to 41 observed (using 3 or more hits to count)...
if you remove the missing and low frequency numbers, you get
Powerball - 1 to 41 (12-14-24-26-27)
picking numbers from the above lists will not guarantee a win, you just put yourself in the observed history "Hit Zone"... Unfortunately the numbers don't know what ranges they are supposed to fall into, so luck is still a piece of the puzzle... 1% system, 98% luck, 1% actually buying a ticket to be in the game...
good luck and keep the math flowing... cool forum!

Have an EXCELlent day!
Bertil

S.Windsor, CT
United States
Member #4,580
May 4, 2004
119 Posts
Offline

Sep 25, 2004, 4:47 pm

Quote: Originally posted by hypersoniq on September 25, 2004

In my experiences with excel, I find the skew comes from the limited number of sample draws versus the total number of possibilities. The theoretical models tell you what would happen after the dust settles, where the numbers are expected to be frequency-wise... observations don't agree because there are only usually a few hundred or a few thousand results and millions of possibilities.
The theory helps set ranges, but observation helps narrow them down to useful size.
here's an example from the MUSL powerball...
5/53
Theoretical ranges...
(Sorted Order)
First ball- 1 to 49 - 48 numbers to pick from
Second Ball- 2 to 50 - 48 numbers to pick from
THird Ball- 3 to 51 - 48 numbers to pick from
Fourth Ball- 4 to 52 - 48 numbers to pick from
Fifth Ball- 5 to 53 - 48 numbers to pick from

Observed Range to date...
First ball- 1 to 32 - leaves 31 numbers to pick from
Second Ball- 2 to 45 - leaves 43 numbers to pick from
THird Ball- 6 to 50 - leaves 44 numbers to pick from
Fourth Ball- 8 to 52 - leaves 44 numbers to pick from
Fifth Ball- 10 to 53 - leaves 43 numbers to pick from

Observed Range with spikes trimmed (3 or more occurrences in boundary numbers)...
First ball- 1 to 31 - leaves 30 numbers to pick from
Second Ball- 5 to 34 - leaves 30 numbers to pick from
THird Ball- 14 to 46 - leaves 32 numbers to pick from
Fourth Ball- 17 to 50 - leaves 33 numbers to pick from
Fifth Ball- 32 to 53 - leaves 21 numbers to pick from
We know all high or all low spikes can and do happen, but to be within 80% of the actual observed ranges of all 205 powerball draw results since the new matrix went into play (10-9-2002), the numbers above better serve your immediate needs.
There are also gaps within those ranges...
Observed Range with spikes trimmed (with missing #s and #s drawn less than 3 times)...
First ball- 1 to 31 (21-22-23-24-25-26-27-28-29-30) leaves 20 numbers to pick from
Second Ball- 5 to 34 (27) leaves 29 numbers to pick from
THird Ball- 14 to 46 (15-41-42-43-44) leaves 27 numbers to pick from
Fourth Ball- 17 to 50 (18-19-23-24-36) leaves 28 numbers to pick from
Fifth Ball- 32 to 53 (37) leaves 20 numbers to pick from
powerball itself is a tough nut to crack...
range is 1 to 42, in theory... and 1 to 41 observed (using 3 or more hits to count)...
if you remove the missing and low frequency numbers, you get
Powerball - 1 to 41 (12-14-24-26-27)
picking numbers from the above lists will not guarantee a win, you just put yourself in the observed history "Hit Zone"... Unfortunately the numbers don't know what ranges they are supposed to fall into, so luck is still a piece of the puzzle... 1% system, 98% luck, 1% actually buying a ticket to be in the game...
good luck and keep the math flowing... cool forum!
Bertil

S.Windsor, CT
United States
Member #4,580
May 4, 2004
119 Posts
Offline

Sep 25, 2004, 4:54 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Bertil on September 25, 2004

Quote: Originally posted by hypersoniq on September 25, 2004

In my experiences with excel, I find the skew comes from the limited number of sample draws versus the total number of possibilities. The theoretical models tell you what would happen after the dust settles, where the numbers are expected to be frequency-wise... observations don't agree because there are only usually a few hundred or a few thousand results and millions of possibilities.
The theory helps set ranges, but observation helps narrow them down to useful size.
here's an example from the MUSL powerball...
5/53
Theoretical ranges...
(Sorted Order)
First ball- 1 to 49 - 48 numbers to pick from
Second Ball- 2 to 50 - 48 numbers to pick from
THird Ball- 3 to 51 - 48 numbers to pick from
Fourth Ball- 4 to 52 - 48 numbers to pick from
Fifth Ball- 5 to 53 - 48 numbers to pick from

Observed Range to date...
First ball- 1 to 32 - leaves 31 numbers to pick from
Second Ball- 2 to 45 - leaves 43 numbers to pick from
THird Ball- 6 to 50 - leaves 44 numbers to pick from
Fourth Ball- 8 to 52 - leaves 44 numbers to pick from
Fifth Ball- 10 to 53 - leaves 43 numbers to pick from

Observed Range with spikes trimmed (3 or more occurrences in boundary numbers)...
First ball- 1 to 31 - leaves 30 numbers to pick from
Second Ball- 5 to 34 - leaves 30 numbers to pick from
THird Ball- 14 to 46 - leaves 32 numbers to pick from
Fourth Ball- 17 to 50 - leaves 33 numbers to pick from
Fifth Ball- 32 to 53 - leaves 21 numbers to pick from
We know all high or all low spikes can and do happen, but to be within 80% of the actual observed ranges of all 205 powerball draw results since the new matrix went into play (10-9-2002), the numbers above better serve your immediate needs.
There are also gaps within those ranges...
Observed Range with spikes trimmed (with missing #s and #s drawn less than 3 times)...
First ball- 1 to 31 (21-22-23-24-25-26-27-28-29-30) leaves 20 numbers to pick from
Second Ball- 5 to 34 (27) leaves 29 numbers to pick from
THird Ball- 14 to 46 (15-41-42-43-44) leaves 27 numbers to pick from
Fourth Ball- 17 to 50 (18-19-23-24-36) leaves 28 numbers to pick from
Fifth Ball- 32 to 53 (37) leaves 20 numbers to pick from
powerball itself is a tough nut to crack...
range is 1 to 42, in theory... and 1 to 41 observed (using 3 or more hits to count)...
if you remove the missing and low frequency numbers, you get
Powerball - 1 to 41 (12-14-24-26-27)
picking numbers from the above lists will not guarantee a win, you just put yourself in the observed history "Hit Zone"... Unfortunately the numbers don't know what ranges they are supposed to fall into, so luck is still a piece of the puzzle... 1% system, 98% luck, 1% actually buying a ticket to be in the game...
good luck and keep the math flowing... cool forum!

Hypersoniq,
Please disregard my failed attempt above to communicate.
Is your above analysis based on the ball frequencies reported by MUSL on it site or do they refer to the about 110 draws since the game went 5/53 on Oct.9,2002? If you based it on the new game data, could you tell us where they are posted?
Bertil
hypersoniq

Pennsylvania
United States
Member #1,340
April 6, 2003
2,581 Posts
Offline

Sep 25, 2004, 5:25 pm

I only count the draws since 10/9/02... there are currently 205 draws under the new matrix with draw 206 tonight.
I don't know if they are posted anywhere, I used game history and excel to get frequency data. I keep a chart of occurrences in several columns (overall, positional (sort order) and positional (draw order)).
here is the game history since then...
Draw Date---Draw#--WB1-WB2-WB3--WB4-WB5---PB
10/09/2002----001----09----10----38----42----43----05
10/12/2002----002----23----26----46----49----52----28
10/16/2002----003----08----11----24----31----37----41
10/19/2002----004----04----18----20----25----42----29
10/23/2002----005----02----14----18----30----31----36
10/26/2002----006----12----14----27----33----39----41
10/30/2002----007----09----16----19----23----41----12
11/02/2002----008----08----15----32----34----35----34
11/06/2002----009----09----11----12----17----19----23
11/09/2002----010----30----36----38----40----53----08
11/13/2002----011----18----23----31----38----50----20
11/16/2002----012----32----33----35----40----51----01
11/20/2002----013----14----21----22----29----44----03
11/23/2002----014----15----16----19----21----49----05
11/27/2002----015----01----20----25----40----53----19
11/30/2002----016----01----04----19----21----29----08
12/04/2002----017----13----20----21----35----40----35
12/07/2002----018----03----17----27----32----48----01
12/11/2002----019----06----12----14----22----33----21
12/14/2002----020----08----17----24----42----44----37
12/18/2002----021----02----14----33----50----52----22
12/21/2002----022----05----22----34----39----52----30
12/25/2002----023----05----14----16----29----53----07
12/28/2002----024----02----15----38----43----50----29
01/01/2003----025----18----34----42----43----53----17
01/04/2003----026----01----11----37----39----40----23
01/08/2003----027----16----22----26----44----46----20
01/11/2003----028----09----45----46----48----51----02
01/15/2003----029----04----17----30----42----44----15
01/18/2003----030----04----17----34----48----52----10
01/22/2003----031----20----28----30----40----43----03
01/25/2003----032----10----12----15----49----51----21
01/29/2003----033----10----12----27----30----53----28
02/01/2003----034----02----11----16----21----39----42
02/05/2003----035----02----05----07----09----48----32
02/08/2003----036----02----13----20----21----23----35
02/12/2003----037----07----12----19----47----49----06
02/15/2003----038----01----26----29----38----42----30
02/19/2003----039----06----11----16----17----44----26
02/22/2003----040----02----05----06----09----10----26
02/26/2003----041----10----23----27----31----34----11
03/01/2003----042----06----07----27----28----41----03
03/05/2003----043----02----24----28----37----44----06
03/08/2003----044----01----05----20----21----45----24
03/12/2003----045----05----24----25----44----52----20
03/15/2003----046----12----30----41----42----52----35
03/19/2003----047----19----37----40----47----51----40
03/22/2003----048----05----29----31----47----49----25
03/26/2003----049----10----28----31----40----52----41
03/29/2003----050----02----09----17----25----36----08
04/02/2003----051----12----17----35----47----50----13
04/05/2003----052----07----14----23----46----49----20
04/09/2003----053----06----28----35----38----51----41
04/12/2003----054----17----27----28----35----52----02
04/16/2003----055----04----25----39----41----50----31
04/19/2003----056----10----18----40----46----48----30
04/23/2003----057----14----15----23----31----51----34
04/26/2003----058----05----11----13----22----36----31
04/30/2003----059----07----13----17----32----33----35
05/03/2003----060----14----21----39----40----47----06
05/07/2003----061----13----18----34----35----51----28
05/10/2003----062----01----02----06----10----20----38
05/14/2003----063----20----33----34----45----52----21
05/17/2003----064----05----13----18----42----50----04
05/21/2003----065----04----30----32----35----41----09
05/24/2003----066----10----42----48----49----50----42
05/28/2003----067----06----16----17----19----38----16
05/31/2003----068----10----26----30----46----52----35
06/04/2003----069----02----14----24----26----53----01
06/07/2003----070----11----17----26----27----40----06
06/11/2003----071----12----16----43----44----46----38
06/14/2003----072----12----26----40----42----50----03
06/18/2003----073----19----20----21----45----46----20
06/21/2003----074----15----19----27----36----44----17
06/25/2003----075----05----26----35----43----50----04
06/28/2003----076----07----09----14----41----44----25
07/02/2003----077----16----17----24----26----45----36
07/05/2003----078----05----17----25----37----49----21
07/09/2003----079----19----21----26----31----51----40
07/12/2003----080----06----16----50----51----52----23
07/16/2003----081----18----27----28----30----49----20
07/19/2003----082----14----29----30----34----48----01
07/23/2003----083----04----16----34----37----51----38
07/26/2003----084----09----10----30----32----34----11
07/30/2003----085----18----22----26----31----49----28
08/02/2003----086----17----40----41----42----46----25
08/06/2003----087----11----14----26----31----48----30
08/09/2003----088----18----23----25----26----40----15
08/13/2003----089----26----31----35----44----48----32
08/16/2003----090----13----15----20----37----42----07
08/20/2003----091----08----22----35----46----48----15
08/23/2003----092----01----39----46----50----51----07
08/27/2003----093----24----31----36----42----46----32
08/30/2003----094----09----35----36----41----49----33
09/03/2003----095----06----09----19----24----40----31
09/06/2003----096----06----15----18----20----41----17
09/10/2003----097----03----17----29----30----33----34
09/13/2003----098----06----10----19----28----32----39
09/17/2003----099----02----19----24----32----34----02
09/20/2003----100----11----13----28----31----33----29
09/24/2003----101----17----19----20----28----47----37
09/27/2003----102----09----20----30----41----48----29
10/01/2003----103----04----05----19----21----50----41
10/04/2003----104----08----13----29----44----48----36
10/08/2003----105----01----06----07----08----25----18
10/11/2003----106----11----14----21----32----45----21
10/15/2003----107----06----09----29----39----52----08
10/18/2003----108----22----25----33----34----35----14
10/22/2003----109----03----25----27----28----53----35
10/25/2003----110----06----17----45----47----48----04
10/29/2003----111----08----19----22----34----53----29
11/01/2003----112----16----19----34----37----47----18
11/05/2003----113----06----20----27----38----39----31
11/08/2003----114----05----08----24----38----52----22
11/12/2003----115----07----11----19----20----22----01
11/15/2003----116----08----20----22----32----52----39
11/19/2003----117----16----26----36----42----47----33
11/22/2003----118----09----12----17----29----45----04
11/26/2003----119----01----03----16----37----41----19
11/29/2003----120----14----36----39----43----51----15
12/03/2003----121----01----10----35----37----43----30
12/06/2003----122----21----24----37----41----45----39
12/10/2003----123----04----17----26----37----40----15
12/13/2003----124----17----19----25----26----44----19
12/17/2003----125----15----18----19----21----43----07
12/20/2003----126----12----20----24----25----48----37
12/24/2003----127----01----06----31----34----44----25
12/27/2003----128----16----17----32----34----43----31
12/31/2003----129----05----07----18----28----35----01
01/03/2004----130----04----05----22----41----42----02
01/07/2004----131----04----07----14----18----44----25
01/10/2004----132----02----13----19----27----50----05
01/14/2004----133----12----33----40----44----50----40
01/17/2004----134----08----09----32----45----48----15
01/21/2004----135----13----17----34----41----45----17
01/24/2004----136----01----05----37----38----53----31
01/28/2004----137----08----13----17----39----48----34
01/31/2004----138----03----06----27----37----41----38
02/04/2004----139----07----12----17----25----32----33
02/07/2004----140----31----34----35----39----46----03
02/11/2004----141----05----16----28----50----52----04
02/14/2004----142----10----24----25----35----43----32
02/18/2004----143----04----24----36----44----50----02
02/21/2004----144----15----22----26----48----53----14
02/25/2004----145----04----05----11----17----47----35
02/28/2004----146----06----25----26----52----53----40
03/03/2004----147----05----11----17----23----53----34
03/06/2004----148----09----17----46----49----51----09
03/10/2004----149----10----20----22----41----49----06
03/13/2004----150----11----44----45----48----50----02
03/17/2004----151----07----15----20----24----43----05
03/20/2004----152----02----14----24----27----44----06
03/24/2004----153----18----20----39----43----47----31
03/27/2004----154----02----15----17----30----34----32
03/31/2004----155----15----31----34----39----50----35
04/03/2004----156----06----07----26----32----43----13
04/07/2004----157----02----07----16----35----37----10
04/10/2004----158----02----09----30----47----48----40
04/14/2004----159----01----06----20----22----38----22
04/17/2004----160----04----29----34----41----42----11
04/21/2004----161----08----11----34----42----51----27
04/24/2004----162----02----13----22----35----44----28
04/28/2004----163----27----34----42----49----52----23
05/01/2004----164----01----10----34----39----47----33
05/05/2004----165----09----16----21----25----32----08
05/08/2004----166----03----09----17----37----43----39
05/12/2004----167----11----31----35----42----45----35
05/15/2004----168----01----26----27----43----46----31
05/19/2004----169----14----15----31----37----41----31
05/22/2004----170----01----07----36----42----49----41
05/26/2004----171----03----10----31----35----38----16
05/29/2004----172----01----16----30----32----39----02
06/02/2004----173----05----06----12----26----29----30
06/05/2004----174----05----26----39----41----42----39
06/09/2004----175----01----31----33----37----50----40
06/12/2004----176----06----20----43----48----52----28
06/16/2004----177----16----18----26----39----48----22
06/19/2004----178----02----09----36----37----48----16
06/23/2004----179----09----12----16----20----39----01
06/26/2004----180----09----17----32----41----47----08
06/30/2004----181----02----29----31----45----47----04
07/03/2004----182----03----08----12----30----47----23
07/07/2004----183----18----25----30----34----41----10
07/10/2004----184----16----17----23----26----44----13
07/14/2004----185----09----24----45----49----50----37
07/17/2004----186----20----23----36----45----50----09
07/21/2004----187----03----31----38----42----46----02
07/24/2004----188----02----03----13----29----52----25
07/28/2004----189----04----19----39----40----50----22
07/31/2004----190----14----31----35----45----47----35
08/04/2004----191----11----22----26----37----51----21
08/07/2004----192----08----09----16----34----48----08
08/11/2004----193----05----10----29----33----51----35
08/14/2004----194----04----10----11----18----43----41
08/18/2004----195----31----33----35----40----42----40
08/21/2004----196----03----16----27----39----40----03
08/25/2004----197----01----30----32----37----50----19
08/28/2004----198----06----30----35----39----45----31
09/01/2004----199----31----33----44----45----51----31
09/04/2004----200----13----15----25----26----46----28
09/08/2004----201----02----04----28----33----52----18
09/11/2004----202----25----34----36----46----49----09
09/15/2004----203----01----08----17----28----50----20
09/18/2004----204----02----14----27----31----36----09
09/22/2004----205----06----14----34----37----40----07

Have an EXCELlent day!
Bertil

S.Windsor, CT
United States
Member #4,580
May 4, 2004
119 Posts
Offline

Sep 25, 2004, 9:10 pm

Hypersoniq,
Your table of data is greatly appreciated and might serve as a basis for other kinds of
analysis and predictions.
Bertil
JKING

United States
Member #5,599
July 13, 2004
1,207 Posts
Offline

Oct 4, 2004, 8:04 pm

Pure statistical analysis is a proven truth. It's a great way to determine what your your error ratios are going to be when you select your reduction criteria. But, seems to be lacking in the area of current dvents. I think the most useful information, after the basic statistics has been performed, is applying statistical concepts to the current data, occurrences over a range, last time picked, pairings,....etc. The question is, is what is the best combination to yeild to best results.
Would anyone like to comment one what they think is the best combinaton?

You are a slave to the choices you have made. jk

Even a blind squirrel will occasionally find an acorn.

There is no elevator to success, you will have to take the stairs.

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