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500 million powerball jackpot,possible??

Topic closed. 32 replies. Last post 12 years ago by luckylottolady.

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twisted's avatar - underground
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Posted: November 9, 2004, 7:40 pm - IP Logged

I concur. But I just want to correct your math a little (just a little).



Jackpot winners receives 31.690% of sales in MM. If we assume that the cash value of the annutized jackpot is around 58.9% then the cash value for a $500 million jackpot would be $294,500,000 (as you said above). But if jackpot winners receive 31.690% of sales then



X(.31690) = $294,500,000



then X = $929,315,241



The lottery would have to sell $929,315,241.

    DoctorEw220's avatar - alien helmet.jpg
    Yinzer Country, PA
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    Posted: November 9, 2004, 9:01 pm - IP Logged

    it is not going to happen. unless they make the matrix incredibly high, all of the number combinations will be sold.

    I've redone my website.  Go to www.dr-ew.com.  I kept a lot of the old stuff, and I've added some new stuff.  Look for more new stuff in the coming weeks.

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      Greenwich, CT
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      Posted: November 9, 2004, 9:27 pm - IP Logged
      Quote: Originally posted by DoctorEw220 on November 09, 2004


      it is not going to happen. unless they make the matrix incredibly high, all of the number combinations will be sold.


      I have to disagree with you.  Yeah, it's very likely that the winning number combination will be sold, but not a sure bet!  Even if a billion tickets were sold for a single drawing, there would still be a few lines left uncovered.
        Maverick's avatar - yinyang
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        Posted: November 29, 2004, 7:01 pm - IP Logged

        It would mostly end up in the pockets of corporate bigwigs anyway.

          LOTTOMIKE's avatar - cash money.jpg
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          Posted: November 29, 2004, 9:40 pm - IP Logged

          i think the reason a lot of the corporate big wigs win is they probably spend 400 or 500 bucks on every drawing so there is a real healthy chance of winning.

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            Posted: November 30, 2004, 9:24 pm - IP Logged

            Anything can happen jackpot-wise. Badger 5 could hit a million dollars, or Mega Millions can be won 12 draws in a row. But it's really a matter of probability of wether that can actually happen. The probability of Powerball hitting half a billion is pretty slim to begin with. But add the fact that jackpot growth is limited, and that millions and millions of people play, the jackpot getting that big becomes almost as probable as winning it. Mega Millions is more likely to hit that amount, but again it's unlikely. They still haven't beat it's predecessor's record yet.

            (insert signature here)

              Jake649's avatar - scene sunovermountains.jpg

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              Posted: November 30, 2004, 10:00 pm - IP Logged

              JAG331,

              That was a good analysis a couple of messages back in this thread (I did not want to quote it because it is so large) where you calculated that there needs to be 925,000,000 tickets sold without a win to get a jackpot of $500 million.

              I would like to make a correction on your analysis if I may. Reaching a  $500 million jackpot is easier than calculated because it only needs to get to something like $350 million without a win. That would take sales of around 600 million tickets. Why? Because when the jackpot is advertised at the $500 million level, one could assume that it is won at that level. Therefore the sales that contribute to the last jump of $150 miillion do not have to be factored in as part of the sales that go without a match. I am not sure I am explaining it properly.

              Bottom line is that sales of around 6o0 million tickets without a win is needed.

              Good luck,
              Jake

                LOTTOMIKE's avatar - cash money.jpg
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                Posted: November 30, 2004, 10:07 pm - IP Logged

                plus someone said that when there was x amount of tickets sold after so many drawings that a jackpot must be hit because all the combinations have been sold...but each drawing is a brand new drawing with the numbers being sold all over again and whatever combination of numbers were sold in the previous drawing has no bearing whatsoever with the combinations sold in the next drawing.all the combinations if they are sold or almost sold starts completely over with each new ball drawing......

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                  Greenwich, CT
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                  Posted: December 1, 2004, 10:36 am - IP Logged

                  Jake,

                  Thanks for making that distinction.  You're right, you would only need 600,000,000 tickets sold to advertise the $500 million jackpot.  If you could sell 925,000,000 tickets without a winner,  you could advertise the $730 million jackpot for next drawing.

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                    Morrison, IL
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                    Posted: December 1, 2004, 11:08 am - IP Logged
                    Quote: Originally posted by JimmySand9 on November 30, 2004


                    Mega Millions is more likely to hit that amount, but again it's unlikely. They still haven't beat it's predecessor's record yet.



                      Yes, and its predecessor set the record when the odds were 1 in only 80 million.

                      urbossmanpimpin's avatar - batman49
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                      Posted: December 1, 2004, 11:54 am - IP Logged

                      well it looks like we won't see one of that size for years to come.

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                        Posted: December 2, 2004, 5:19 pm - IP Logged

                        It will be interesting to see what happens if the jackpot gets to $300 million again. I like to see winners and think $20-40 million is high enough, but I'm curious about the jackpot increases and how many drawings it can continue without a winner at $300 million. As long as there's a few uncovered combinations and it keeps landing on them, who knows.  The real answer is, at what jackpot amount are excitement and sales so large that 99% of combinations are covered?

                          LOTTOMIKE's avatar - cash money.jpg
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                          Posted: December 2, 2004, 9:45 pm - IP Logged

                          good question......at what jackpot amount are excitement and sales so large that 99 percent of combinations are covered????

                            DoctorEw220's avatar - alien helmet.jpg
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                            Posted: December 2, 2004, 10:32 pm - IP Logged

                            don't forget about power play sales. those contributew to the jackpot as well. even if it does hit $500 million, or even a billion, there would be so many tickets sold for the drawing that the jackpot would very likely be split between at least 5 tickets.

                            I've redone my website.  Go to www.dr-ew.com.  I kept a lot of the old stuff, and I've added some new stuff.  Look for more new stuff in the coming weeks.

                              Bradly_60's avatar - disney37
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                              Posted: December 2, 2004, 10:45 pm - IP Logged

                              Yes it will never reach that high unless they change the number matrix to 5c60 and 1c60.  Once the odds get that high then it could happen.  I mean the lotteries sell over 100,000,000 tickets when it reaches $200 million.  Almost every single possible ticket is covered.  The odds are in favor of it being it when those many tickets are sold.  I say you would need to have 1 in 300 million odds for a jackpot to reach that high.