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The time is now 1:30 am
You last visited
April 24, 2024, 11:36 pm
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What We're Seeing in the Employment Numbers.
Published:
Updated:
Below are charts of the Employed % of the Total Employable Population.
We have seen a slowing in the percentage growth.
It may not be obvious in the data or regression wave, however, when analyzing the rates of change, we can see the subtle movements.
The scale for the rates of change are on a factored scale of ±1.
The actual values would be a lesser value for each rate of change from Velocity to Impelleration.
Factoring to a ±1 scale allows us to see the values easier.
We can see the trend since 2011 has been mostly up, but appears to be cresting.
This is evident in the rates of change by the decrease in the Velocity and the negative values for Acceleration and Impelleration.
The decrease in velocity seems to have really taken off since late 2016.
Hmm, what happened in late 2016?
Here's a close up view starting from 2006.
It appears the Employed % is cresting and as long as the Acceleration and Impelleration are Negative, it will continue to slow till it stops and the reverse trend causes the Velocity to go Negative.
Negative Velocity, Acceleration and Impelleration could be a sign of Recession.
But, that's just our Opinion.
The One Over None.
Comments
Here's some of the data and analysis we have from 2006-01 to 2018-05:
Index Date Employed % Regression Wave Velocity Acceleration Impelleration
697 2006-01 62.91% 62.98% 0.2054 -0.1717 -0.2889
698 2006-02 62.99% 63.02% 0.1941 -0.2085 -0.2987
699 2006-03 63.05% 63.05% 0.1807 -0.2463 -0.3079
700 2006-04 63.00% 63.07% 0.1652 -0.2852 -0.3164
701 2006-05 63.08% 63.10% 0.1475 -0.3250 -0.3236
702 2006-06 63.13% 63.12% 0.1276 -0.3655 -0.3296
703 2006-07 62.99% 63.14% 0.1055 -0.4065 -0.3335
704 2006-08 63.11% 63.15% 0.0811 -0.4476 -0.3350
705 2006-09 63.12% 63.16% 0.0546 -0.4888 -0.3346
706 2006-10 63.27% 63.16% 0.0257 -0.5294 -0.3310
707 2006-11 63.30% 63.16% -0.0052 -0.5694 -0.3248
708 2006-12 63.44% 63.16% -0.0383 -0.6081 -0.3154
709 2007-01 63.31% 63.14% -0.0734 -0.6454 -0.3037
710 2007-02 63.27% 63.13% -0.1105 -0.6811 -0.2899
711 2007-03 63.33% 63.10% -0.1494 -0.7149 -0.2754
712 2007-04 62.96% 63.07% -0.1900 -0.7469 -0.2604
713 2007-05 63.03% 63.03% -0.2323 -0.7770 -0.2445
714 2007-06 63.04% 62.98% -0.2761 -0.8051 -0.2290
715 2007-07 62.90% 62.93% -0.3213 -0.8311 -0.2116
716 2007-08 62.74% 62.87% -0.3678 -0.8546 -0.1914
717 2007-09 62.91% 62.80% -0.4154 -0.8752 -0.1674
718 2007-10 62.71% 62.72% -0.4640 -0.8922 -0.1379
719 2007-11 62.93% 62.63% -0.5132 -0.9044 -0.1000
720 2007-12 62.74% 62.54% -0.5628 -0.9111 -0.0539
721 2008-01 62.93% 62.44% -0.6123 -0.9107 0.0032
722 2008-02 62.78% 62.33% -0.6614 -0.9021 0.0699
723 2008-03 62.70% 62.21% -0.7095 -0.8839 0.1476
724 2008-04 62.66% 62.08% -0.7560 -0.8552 0.2340
725 2008-05 62.51% 61.95% -0.8004 -0.8149 0.3276
726 2008-06 62.38% 61.81% -0.8418 -0.7625 0.4264
727 2008-07 62.23% 61.66% -0.8798 -0.6978 0.5269
728 2008-08 62.02% 61.50% -0.9136 -0.6208 0.6263
729 2008-09 61.90% 61.35% -0.9425 -0.5322 0.7208
730 2008-10 61.72% 61.18% -0.9661 -0.4330 0.8068
731 2008-11 61.36% 61.02% -0.9838 -0.3248 0.8809
732 2008-12 61.00% 60.85% -0.9952 -0.2093 0.9397
733 2009-01 60.56% 60.68% -1.0000 -0.0889 0.9800
734 2009-02 60.29% 60.52% -0.9981 0.0340 1.0000
735 2009-03 59.85% 60.35% -0.9896 0.1567 0.9983
736 2009-04 59.78% 60.19% -0.9746 0.2767 0.9757
737 2009-05 59.57% 60.03% -0.9533 0.3912 0.9323
738 2009-06 59.41% 59.87% -0.9262 0.4983 0.8712
739 2009-07 59.31% 59.72% -0.8937 0.5959 0.7941
740 2009-08 59.08% 59.58% -0.8566 0.6824 0.7039
741 2009-09 58.74% 59.44% -0.8155 0.7566 0.6035
7
742 2009-10 58.52% 59.31% -0.7710 0.8175 0.4959
743 2009-11 58.57% 59.19% -0.7239 0.8647 0.3839
744 2009-12 58.25% 59.08% -0.6751 0.8981 0.2714
745 2010-01 58.45% 58.97% -0.6251 0.9180 0.1626
746 2010-02 58.47% 58.88% -0.5748 0.9254 0.0595
747 2010-03 58.51% 58.79% -0.5246 0.9213 -0.0333
748 2010-04 58.69% 58.71% -0.4753 0.9072 -0.1148
749 2010-05 58.63% 58.64% -0.4272 0.8846 -0.1836
750 2010-06 58.54% 58.57% -0.3806 0.8552 -0.2390
751 2010-07 58.51% 58.52% -0.3360 0.8205 -0.2824
752 2010-08 58.56% 58.47% -0.2934 0.7818 -0.3147
753 2010-09 58.49% 58.42% -0.2532 0.7403 -0.3376
754 2010-10 58.32% 58.39% -0.2152 0.6971 -0.3522
755 2010-11 58.25% 58.36% -0.1797 0.6528 -0.3605
756 2010-12 58.31% 58.33% -0.1466 0.6080 -0.3641
757 2011-01 58.34% 58.31% -0.1160 0.5633 -0.3640
758 2011-02 58.36% 58.30% -0.0878 0.5190 -0.3606
759 2011-03 58.43% 58.29% -0.0619 0.4754 -0.3546
760 2011-04 58.37% 58.28% -0.0384 0.4327 -0.3468
761 2011-05 58.34% 58.28% -0.0171 0.3913 -0.3372
762 2011-06 58.20% 58.28% 0.0020 0.3512 -0.3266
763 2011-07 58.21% 58.28% 0.0190 0.3125 -0.3149
764 2011-08 58.34% 58.29% 0.0340 0.2753 -0.3024
765 2011-09 58.39% 58.30% 0.0471 0.2398 -0.2884
766 2011-10 58.42% 58.31% 0.0583 0.2064 -0.2723
767 2011-11 58.57% 58.32% 0.0678 0.1751 -0.2542
768 2011-12 58.57% 58.33% 0.0758 0.1463 -0.2342
769 2012-01 58.44% 58.34% 0.0823 0.1203 -0.2121
770 2012-02 58.51% 58.36% 0.0876 0.0971 -0.1887
771 2012-03 58.55% 58.37% 0.0918 0.0768 -0.1648
772 2012-04 58.45% 58.39% 0.0950 0.0596 -0.1402
773 2012-05 58.53% 58.41% 0.0975 0.0454 -0.1154
774 2012-06 58.56% 58.42% 0.0994 0.0342 -0.0912
775 2012-07 58.47% 58.44% 0.1008 0.0259 -0.0672
776 2012-08 58.42% 58.46% 0.1019 0.0206 -0.0437
777 2012-09 58.68% 58.47% 0.1029 0.0180 -0.0212
778 2012-10 58.79% 58.49% 0.1039 0.0180 0.0001
779 2012-11 58.70% 58.51% 0.1050 0.0205 0.0207
780 2012-12 58.66% 58.53% 0.1064 0.0254 0.0396
781 2013-01 58.57% 58.55% 0.1081 0.0322 0.0557
782 2013-02 58.56% 58.56% 0.1103 0.0407 0.0686
783 2013-03 58.50% 58.58% 0.1130 0.0502 0.0775
784 2013-04 58.58% 58.60% 0.1163 0.0603 0.0825
785 2013-05 58.64% 58.62% 0.1202 0.0706 0.0833
786 2013-06 58.64% 58.64% 0.1245 0.0804 0.0803
787 2013-07 58.70% 58.67% 0.1294 0.0895 0.0737
788 2013-08 58.68% 58.69% 0.1347
788 2014-08 59.03% 59.03% 0.1913 0.0401 -0.0914
789 2014-09 59.07% 59.06% 0.1929 0.0294 -0.0871
790 2014-10 59.28% 59.09% 0.1940 0.0196 -0.0799
791 2014-11 59.23% 59.13% 0.1946 0.0109 -0.0704
792 2014-12 59.27% 59.16% 0.1948 0.0038 -0.0585
793 2015-01 59.31% 59.19% 0.1947 -0.0019 -0.0460
794 2015-02 59.26% 59.22% 0.1944 -0.0060 -0.0333
795 2015-03 59.25% 59.26% 0.1939 -0.0086 -0.0211
796 2015-04 59.34% 59.29% 0.1934 -0.0099 -0.0106
797 2015-05 59.41% 59.32% 0.1928 -0.0101 -0.0019
798 2015-06 59.36% 59.35% 0.1923 -0.0095 0.0047
799 2015-07 59.32% 59.39% 0.1918 -0.0084 0.0091
800 2015-08 59.39% 59.42% 0.1914 -0.0071 0.0110
801 2015-09 59.21% 59.45% 0.1911 -0.0057 0.0106
802 2015-10 59.34% 59.48% 0.1909 -0.0047 0.0089
803 2015-11 59.38% 59.51% 0.1907 -0.0040 0.0054
804 2015-12 59.59% 59.55% 0.1905 -0.0037 0.0022
805 2016-01 59.66% 59.58% 0.1902 -0.0038 -0.0009
806 2016-02 59.79% 59.61% 0.1900 -0.0042 -0.0027
807 2016-03 59.83% 59.64% 0.1898 -0.0046 -0.0039
808 2016-04 59.68% 59.67% 0.1895 -0.0052 -0.0046
809 2016-05 59.66% 59.71% 0.1892 -0.0059 -0.0055
810 2016-06 59.66% 59.74% 0.1888 -0.0068 -0.0078
811 2016-07 59.73% 59.77% 0.1883 -0.0082 -0.0114
812 2016-08 59.75% 59.80% 0.1878 -0.0103 -0.0168
813 2016-09 59.75% 59.83% 0.1871 -0.0132 -0.0235
814 2016-10 59.74% 59.86% 0.1861 -0.0171 -0.0316
815 2016-11 59.77% 59.89% 0.1849 -0.0221 -0.0407
816 2016-12 59.76% 59.92% 0.1834 -0.0283 -0.0502
817 2017-01 59.85% 59.96% 0.1815 -0.0356 -0.0595
818 2017-02 59.99% 59.99% 0.1791 -0.0439 -0.0681
819 2017-03 60.16% 60.01% 0.1762 -0.0532 -0.0750
820 2017-04 60.16% 60.04% 0.1728 -0.0630 -0.0801
821 2017-05 60.01% 60.07% 0.1688 -0.0732 -0.0830
822 2017-06 60.11% 60.10% 0.1642 -0.0836 -0.0844
823 2017-07 60.16% 60.13% 0.1591 -0.0940 -0.0851
824 2017-08 60.10% 60.15% 0.1534 -0.1044 -0.0846
825 2017-09 60.39% 60.18% 0.1472 -0.1147 -0.0832
826 2017-10 60.15% 60.20% 0.1404 -0.1247 -0.0818
827 2017-11 60.14% 60.22% 0.1331 -0.1344 -0.0792
828 2017-12 60.14% 60.24% 0.1253 -0.1439 -0.0771
829 2018-01 60.14% 60.26% 0.1169 -0.1531 -0.0747
830 2018-02 60.41% 60.28% 0.1081 -0.1619 -0.0716
831 2018-03 60.36% 60.30% 0.0989 -0.1702 -0.0677
832 2018-04 60.32% 60.31% 0.0892 -0.1778 -0.0619
833 2018-05 60.39% 60.33% 0.0791 -0.1846 -0.0550
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