Finite Random Selection and the 'You can't predict' Paradox

Published: March 23, 2007, 4:10 am

All lotteries are Finite Random Selection. This means the possible outcomes are calculable, are able to be generated and are knowable. It's necessary that all lotteries have this quality, because it would be pointless to have a lottery that is a Pick something from 1 to ¥. In that case, it would be a no win situation for anyone playing. Lotteries also rely on this fact about Finite Random Selection to entice people to play. People have to have that level of confidence, even though the odds are very high; they have to believe they have some kind of chance of winning the Big One.

You can't predict, you can't predict, you can't predict.... I've heard and read many people say this. Okay, let's assume this is true. We'll relate this to Finite Random Selection because that's what most are referring to. You can not predict the outcome of a set of numbers drawn in a lottery. Keep that statement in mind as we go along. We are going to lead into a Paradox, but don't worry, there's a way out.

Prediction, I've defined it in an earlier blog. Prediction is any method of selection before and related to the instantaneous moment of random selection. Any method is anything, it's unbounded; has no limits. When you choose to play and pay, you've made a prediction.

Obviously, Jackpots have been won. Those predictions happen to win the Big One. Remember, regardless of how someone selects their numbers, the fact they bought a ticket IS A PREDICTION. But, herein lays the Paradox, if the 'You can't predict' statement is true, those people who won should not have won because they should not have been able to predict the numbers drawn. But, they did win, but they shouldn't have been able to predict, but they won, but their not suppose to be able to predict so they should not have won, but they won.... etc... Paradox!!!

So, what are we to do. Well, the only way to break the Paradox is to find the one statement that is not True. Since Jackpots have been won, there is only one statement that clearly is false. 'You can't predict' is a false statement. It's self proving, a fact. It has to be false or lotteries are out of business. They count on this to promote their product. If anyone didn't think they had any chance to win, they would not play.

Entry #139

Comments

truecritic - Mar 23, 2007, 4:53 am

In my mind, the word predict, would include to be able to do it in a repeatable manner. I don't raise a simple "guess or random act" to the level of predict.

JADELottery - Mar 23, 2007, 5:05 am

What you've described is an Experiment that results in a Statistical observation over a Continuous interval. Prediction is an Instantaneous event with in the Experiment.

truecritic - Mar 23, 2007, 9:31 am

Quote: "Statistical observation over a Continuous interval. "

Think of a Doctor, prescibes 10 pills to be taken 1 per day (10 days total).
The entire bottle is a continous interval, right? I would call each individual pill a prediction. They each perform in a "predictable" way. If the same bottle of pills contained 10 different types of pills chosen at random and all had different types of expected results, I would call that either "guessing or random."

JADELottery - Mar 23, 2007, 3:27 pm

You've made a mistake in trying to use some logical reasoning that has nothing to do with Finite Random Selection and tried to make it seem Applicable to Finite Random Selection, but it's not.
Each pill consists of many molecules or parts and must integrate itself into the host subject over time to provide a result over time or a continuous interval of time. A prediction would be the individual molecules and their individual interaction with the host's molecular structure. Since no Drug testing trial can be based on an individual molecule, many molecules are administered in the form of a pill or many predictions are conducted over a smaller interval of time relative to the whole Experiment. A mini-Experiment in simpler terms. With those many predictions, it then suggest that the individual pill trial is not a prediction, but Reasonable Expectation.

truecritic - Mar 23, 2007, 3:58 pm

I would still place a higher value to the word predict than I would to a guess or random. I do believe "You can't predict" is a false statement. Doesn't mean the prediction will be correct but I definitely think you can sometimes predict future events in a precise manner.

Finite Random Selection and the 'You can't predict' Paradox

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