One of my favorite sayings is ....
"Let's be EFFECTIVE first... we can be EFFICIENT later on "
and one of my other most favorites is...
" Act ....as if ye had faith "
So.... It's gonna be a long time before we take the "gam" outa' gamble . That's true. In the mean time and in between time ... I like to prepare this sort of bet.
I take the Math Average of these events...say its a double we are hunting..that's 27% right? Another way to approach it is ...Double hits 1 outa' 4 draws. Then ...wait.
we wait and find a long out Double that is 2 or 3 times over it's normal expected hit rate and "JUMP IN " Somewhere..along the way after that. We gamble.
We jump in and "Act" as though we had faith and good sense.We then prepare to stay on bet(on target) for at least 4 more draws or it's normal math average till hit.
One thing we always have going for us (no matter what) ODDS wise... we always have a 1 n 4 shot at a hit on a Double! No matter where or when we jump in. No matter.
We can talk about PROBABILITY changes.... etc and be efficient later on. We can start at the top and work down.
One of my other favorite sayings is ...
" ODDs don't change..but Probability does!
Until then, we get to be effective at least...I like killing flys with my hammer sometimes ..while we wait to be efficient . LOL