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Old Farmers Almanac: Global cooling may be underway

Published:

Old Farmers Almanac: Global cooling may be underway

DUBLIN, N.H. � The Old Farmer's Almanac is going further out on a limb than usual this year, not only forecasting a cooler winter, but looking ahead decades to suggest we are in for global cooling, not warming.
Based on the same time-honored, complex calculations it uses to predict weather, the Almanac hits the newsstands on Tuesday saying a study of solar activity and corresponding records on ocean temperatures and climate point to a cooler, not warmer, climate, for perhaps the next half century.

"We at the Almanac are among those who believe that sunspot cycles and their effects on oceans correlate with climate changes," writes meteorologist and climatologist Joseph D'Aleo. "Studying these and other factor suggests that cold, not warm, climate may be our future."

It remains to be seen, said Editor-in-Chief Jud Hale, whether the human impact on global temperatures will cancel out or override any cooling trend.

"We say that if human beings were not contributing to global warming, it would become real cold in the next 50 years," Hale said.

Entry #722

Comments

1.
time*treatComment by time*treat - September 21, 2008, 10:55 am
A good take on this theory is the movie "The Day After Tomorrow".
2.
ToddComment by Todd - September 21, 2008, 9:43 pm
@T*T: That movie has perhaps the worst science of any recent movie. It is a complete farce. Warming = warming and cooling = cooling, but warming <> cooling, and attempts at linking the two are desparate attempts to maintain the illusion that mankind is cooking the planet.

It is indeed the Sun -- as well as the Earth's many-thousand-year cycle of elongating and then flattening its eliptical orbit around the sun -- that causes the overall changes in Earth's surface temperatures. Yes, mankind may be able to have a very slight influence, but anything we can do (the tiny little specks that we are) is vastly overshadowed by unflinching, unsympathetic Mother Nature.
3.
time*treatComment by time*treat - September 22, 2008, 12:24 am
You got to remember, people don't pay to see movies they could have watched (or slept through) in science class. Almost any movie will skimp on the science and the speed of events.
Yeah the cause was wrong, but the effect was right. I think the movie did a good job of showing the (potential) effects of sudden climate change on humanity. As far as a warm event leading to cooling (and vice-versa), hurricanes are massive heat engines and volcanic eruptions heat up the surrounding area (check out pinatubo-1991, tambora-1815) but can drop temps worldwide for many years. 1816 was the year without a summer.
4.
ToddComment by Todd - September 22, 2008, 8:06 am
The events you're talking about are not engines of cooling. Any global effects are temporary, not the kind of long-term phenomena that is described in this blog topic. When talking about "global cooling" we are talking about a long-term trend of cooling, not a one- or two-year dip in temperatures.

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