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Power Ball "Time Window" for the frequency/number transitions

Published:

Last Edited: July 4, 2009, 12:48 pm

Data sample was taken between: 07/19/2008 and 07/01/2009 (total of 100 draws)

Looked for highest number of hits, while keeping prediction set small

Prediction set starts from a small set of 7 and ends up 32 numbers (100th draw), this is easily understood as the initial frequency/number transition boundaries (from which predictions are derived from) are mostly 0.

On the opposite spectrum however, starting from approximately 59 drawing, there are already 34 numbers being predicted, due to high count of frequency/number transition boundaries and thats basically to the fact that this is a point where the game has/is entered a statistical equilibrium.

What is interesting is, that larger prediction set does not guarantee higher number of hits! (see ref. 1)

I tend to think that the best moment to enter the game is on the right threshold, in the mega that seems to be 56th draw (so if each number had to be drawn at least once and only once, it would do so on every draw until 56th)

Powerball has larger game set (59 draws) and theoretically i would assume the same would hold, set the "cut off" threshold at 59 past draws, but this has not worked very well.

In fact , we are either too early or too late, and numbers jump around frequency/number transition boundaries, believe this is a wrong threshold for this game and correct one could be to look at no higher than 45 draws (in the data sample prediction set for this draw happened to be 25 numbers (one repeat due to boundary overlay)


Draw Sequence: 45 -----------------------------------------------------------

Draw 12/20/2008 03 19 32 54 14 +24

Number/Frequency (Sorted by Number)

Number      01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Frequency  03 04 06 04 06 04 04 04 02 03 03 04 06 07 04 02 07 04 03 01

Number      21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Frequency  04 00 02 06 04 07 00 05 03 03 04 09 05 02 03 06 04 04 06 09

Number      41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59
Frequency  03 00 05 02 04 02 05 05 05 02 05 06 04 04 06 00 00 00 00

Number/Frequency (Sorted by Frequency)

Number      22 27 42 56 57 58 59 20 09 16 23 34 44 46 50 01 10 11 19 29
Frequency  00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 03 03 03 03 03

Number      30 35 41 02 04 06 07 08 12 15 18 21 25 31 37 38 45 53 54 28
Frequency  03 03 03 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 05

Number      33 43 47 48 49 51 03 05 13 24 36 39 52 55 14 17 26 32 40
Frequency  05 05 05 05 05 05 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 07 07 07 09 09

Predictions made on: 12/20/2008 for the next draw: 22 27 59 20 09 09 16 23 50 01 10 41 02 04 54 28 33 51 03 05 55 14 17 26 32 40 [26 Numbers]

Matched [For Date]: 12/24/2008 22 41 02 17 32 [Total = 5]

References:

1. https://members.lotterypost.com/edge/programs/doc/powerball_large.txt  large (full output including frequency tables) containing frequency/number predictions

Entry #20

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