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"Under-delivery" of Padovan sequence possibly detected, although recent spike of 4, but another expected , and definitely 3 and if it comes it will be one after another in succession (3 or 4 x in few weeks time), will possibly play 3 x combination between now and 4 weeks from now, highest hit I ever got on this was 3 # using this strategy but with very low and sporadic spend...
Draw Sequence: 96 -----------------------------------------------------------
Entropy: 10.7198
Fractal Dimension (Capacity): 1
Fractal Dimension (Information): 0.983586
Fractal Dimension (Correlation): 0.971366
Local Lyapunov Exponent: 0
Draw 07/01/2011 12 17 30 35 47 +26
Number/Frequency (Sorted by Number)
Number 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Frequency 08 08 07 12 06 10 05 08 09 15 11 12 08 12 07 07 11 10 12 12
Number 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Frequency 07 08 10 09 06 09 07 10 09 05 11 09 09 07 12 08 07 11 06 06
Number 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56
Frequency 06 05 07 03 09 09 12 11 04 10 08 05 13 06 08 08
Number/Frequency (Sorted by Frequency)
Number 44 49 07 30 42 52 05 25 39 40 41 54 03 15 16 21 27 34 37 43
Frequency 03 04 05 05 05 05 06 06 06 06 06 06 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07
Number 01 02 08 13 22 36 51 55 56 09 24 26 29 32 33 45 46 06 18 23
Frequency 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 10 10 10
Number 28 50 11 17 31 38 48 04 12 14 19 20 35 47 53 10
Frequency 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 15
Predictions made on: 07/01/2011 for the next draw: 44 49 44 49 07 07 30 42
52 05 25 54 03 15 43 01 02 56 09 24 46 06 18 50 11 17 48 04 12 47 53 10 [32 Numb
ers]
Press any key to continue . . .
Steady wave (the challenge is to enter/exit this game (and save money), timing powerball (and possibly mega and this game (NJ P6) at the moment and will issue similar plot for mega ball) I have never succeeded to hit >3 in these games, but it is really funny to me I can do at least this with a somewhat weird premeditation (3 hits), when I do play I fix 3 numbers and try hard to "see" the rest (attempt at precognition and other esoteric means... because I dont believe anything else is possible) One thing also, I imagine that one needs to play one set of consecutive numbers (outside of the 3 Padovan), and for mega/power ball to use a single number in all plays... The chances of winning are still waaay beyond reach, using statistical methods alone will never be sufficient...
Draw Sequence: 44 -----------------------------------------------------------
Entropy: 5.73944
Fractal Dimension (Capacity): 0.986259
Fractal Dimension (Information): 0.963223
Fractal Dimension (Correlation): 0.944221
Local Lyapunov Exponent: 0
Draw 07/30/2009 06 09 23 27 41 48 $0.00
Number/Frequency (Sorted by Number)
Number 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Frequency 05 10 05 06 04 06 08 07 04 11 05 03 03 03 13 05 07 03 05 05
Number 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Frequency 09 04 09 04 04 05 05 03 06 07 07 05 03 03 01 05 10 07 07 01
Number 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49
Frequency 05 03 05 00 07 06 06 08 01
Number/Frequency (Sorted by Frequency)
Number 44 35 40 49 12 13 14 18 28 33 34 42 05 09 22 24 25 01 03 11
Frequency 00 01 01 01 03 03 03 03 03 03 03 03 04 04 04 04 04 05 05 05
Number 16 19 20 26 27 32 36 41 43 04 06 29 46 47 08 17 30 31 38 39
Frequency 05 05 05 05 05 05 05 05 05 06 06 06 06 06 07 07 07 07 07 07
Number 45 07 48 21 23 02 37 10 15
Frequency 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 13
Predictions made on: 07/30/2009 for the next draw: 44 35 44 35 40 49 12 13
42 05 09 25 01 03 43 04 06 47 08 17 45 07 48 48 21 23 23 02 37 37 10 15 [32 Numb
ers]
Press any key to continue . . .
07/02/2011 01-11-18-29-51 32 (1)
Draw Sequence: 132 -----------------------------------------------------------
Entropy: 12.3911
Fractal Dimension (Capacity): 1
Fractal Dimension (Information): 0.989529
Fractal Dimension (Correlation): 0.982264
Local Lyapunov Exponent: 0
Draw 06/29/2011 24 30 45 57 59
Number/Frequency (Sorted by Number)
Number 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Frequency 10 06 08 13 08 07 14 09 08 15 18 17 12 10 08 10 12 11 10 22
Number 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Frequency 14 19 11 08 05 05 13 10 05 11 09 17 09 12 04 16 13 14 11 13
Number 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59
Frequency 17 11 09 12 13 08 13 12 12 09 11 15 11 06 10 10 11 12 11
Number/Frequency (Sorted by Frequency)
Number 35 25 26 29 02 54 06 03 05 09 15 24 46 08 31 33 43 50 01 14
Frequency 04 05 05 05 06 06 07 08 08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 10 10
Number 16 19 28 55 56 18 23 30 39 42 51 53 57 59 13 17 34 44 48 49
Frequency 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 12
Number 58 04 27 37 40 45 47 07 21 38 10 52 36 12 32 41 11 22 20
Frequency 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 15 15 16 17 17 17 18 19 22
Predictions made on: 06/29/2011 for the next draw: 35 25 35 25 26 29 02 54 54 06 03 03 05 09 46 08 31 50 01 14 56 18 23 59 13 17 58 04 27 47 07 21 38 10 52 52 36 12 12 32 41 41 11 22 22 20 [46 Numbers]
Press any key to continue . . .
Entering somewhat unfamiliar territory, to aid some of the symbolic, numerical and yes, clairvoyant topics and contemplations, came across this resource book ref [1]
Augusta Curtiss [2] was an original author of many books that one could, I guess, classify as Christian mysticism, but this is far too strict of a classification, this particular book
pertains to the subject of numbers and symbols as it appears in various spiritual and metaphysical (spiritual) texts.
To give you quick taste of the book content, ie she writes:
"Numbers can be compared to bones of the body in that they are framework upon which a superstructure of manifestation is erected"
"In the Bible, from the day of Creation to the Apocalypse, great stress is laid upon numbers , especially 3, 4, 7 and 12"
"The word Tarot maybe written in the form of a cross and read ROTA, a wheel"
The book is packed with various references to spiritual writings from ancient Hebrew texts to the ancient Egyptians, and finds common traits among them.
[2] - Curtiss, Harriette Augusta - Biography (1856-1932)
Recently I came across this research paper [1] , it is unusual to encounter description of engineering device/software that in a serious way and under academic conditions performs amplification of PSI phenomena, such devices are long available to military organizations since the Cold War, they have nothing to do with pseudo-scientific explanations such as given in the public media (for decades now), rather they serve to study and amplification of "psycho-metric" data .
Software itself is used to detect subtle patterns in the subject decision/control/action and via repetition builds memory of these and generate feedback loops, which in turn leads to amplifying effects, such in the case of this study: precognition.
Paper reports significant skewing of the medium when this technique was applied against game of Roulette.
Interestingly paper quotes Czech scientist Milan Ryzl (former biophysicist who became one of the leading KGB resources in the area of psychotronics). Psychotronics name was used by the Soviets (as opposed to parapsychology in the US) because they were very much interested in man-machine interactions (electronics) especially in the area of mind-control and manipulation, they took this idea to a next level and incorporated psychology, hence psycho-tronics.
It is in my estimation, this area of study never stopped and continues, this experiment was shut down around 1981, at the peak of Stargate (in US) and psychotronics (in the Soviet Union) which does not make sense if only from their operational standpoint.
References:
[1] Amplifying Precognition Four Experiments with Roulette http://www.parapsychologie.at/programm/ws200809/Kugel_PA.pdf
In the paper written by Doctor Eva Lobach from University of Amsterdam and presented at parapsychology conference in October 2008 (see ref. 4) following definition
is given to presentiment:
Presentiment, also called prestimulus response, involves changes in physiological processes that are related to future stimuli.
Pesentiment is also known as:
Doctor Eva Lobach (quoting from her website, see ref. 2) engages in a formal research regarding intuition:
"... Intuition. I am completing a PhD project about Intuition (with Dick Bierman).
Intuition can be defined as "affectively charged judgments that arise through rapid, non-conscious, and holistic associations." (Dane & Pratt, 2007).
Although intuition involves non-conscious processes, the outcomes of these intuitive processes can somehow be evaluated.
I try to find answers to questions like:
..."
Presentation paper by Doctor Eva Lobach (see ref. 1) outlines a research programe' (past, current and future) and already contains some intriguing results to quote few points from the paper (what the author also calls Presentiment Hypothesis) :
"Psi-effect will be stronger with threatening stimuli"
"Presentiment-effect is due to unconscious psi-augmented decisions of the experimenter."
"Presentiment-effect will be stronger if consciousness is more coherent"
"Life is a consequence of advanced waves; all living systems reflect retrocausality"
"Presentiment-effect increases when participants’ minds can act like REGs, i.e., remain undetermined." (REG= Random Event Generator)
Summary:
Paper lays nice foundation to the cut edge research to this fascinating subject, ideas quoted such as " Syntropy (Fantappiè, Vannini): Life is a consequence of advanced
waves; all living systems reflect retrocausality" warrant further investigation in the context of retro-causality.
References:
1. Presentiment Research: Past, Present, and Future by Drs. Eva Lobach University of Amsterdam (note: you need Microsoft Powerpoint software or compatible reader to open this document)
2. Drs. Eva Lobach University of Amsterdam website:
http://home.medewerker.uva.nl/e.lobach/
3. The Parapsychology Foundation Lyceum
4. PARAPSYCHOLOGY FOUNDATION INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCES (Utrecht II: Charting the Future of Parapsychology October 15th through October 18th, 2008) Abstracts of Presentations
Beginning series of exploring or rather augmenting statistical and probability research with my other interest which is parapsychology.
Below talk given by Professor Garret Moddel University of Colorado at Boulder Exploring the Science Underlying Psi Phenomena, on that retrocausation (the present affecting the past) is one of very recent scientific minded explorations into the world of paranormal.
What is really interesting about retro-causality is that it does not violate 2nd law of thermodynamics (key opposing factor to any form of precognition) there is no logical argument that can be posed (at the moment) that would overthrow retrocausality as physically unsound.
I could compare this idea to Hugh Everett "Many World Interpretation" where the quantum wave collapse is interpreted as continuously splitting (or branching) world event lines, in this theory just as is retrocausality, there is no currently known logical and physical argument that would disprove it. By the same token according to scientific philosopher Karl Popper, since such a theory can not be falsified (disproved) it does not fall into category of valid science.
Talk part 1 of 2
Talk part 2 of 2
References:
1. PsiPhen Laboratory University of Colorado at Boulder
2. "Can you still win yesterday’s lottery? or, retrocausation: is it compatible with known physics?," G. Moddel, Annual Meeting of the Society for Scientific Exploration, June 27-29, 2008, Boulder, Colorado (slides)
http://psiphen.colorado.edu/Pubs/ModdelSSE08.pdf
3. Many-worlds interpretation - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Few words of explanation:
1. Main idea for me was to see entropy data together with performance of Padovan numbers.
2. Entropy calculations were done as follows: ("reduced" lottery matrix set was used as per usual)
a) for every game event and each number, count number of frequencies going past 10 draws (thats why data points start from 10 and up for the entropy)
b) calculate probability: number probability = number frequency / 10 * 80 (80 is total numbers in NY P10 game)
c) calculate Shannon entropy = entropy += (number_probability * log(1 / number_probability))
3. Green represents Shannon Entropy and Red Padovan Sequence Numbers matched
Few observations:
1. it actually took some time to measure correct time window (10 in the NY P10 game) in order to arrive with well scaled trend line, believe it to be the correct measure
2. in many instances Shannon Entropy "predicts" (saddle points precede day or two in advance increase in the number of hits from the Padovan sequence) and this is exactly value of this chart.
3. Overall strategy to optimize entry into the game (not to optimize getting exact numbers!) appears to be at the lowest "saddle" points of entropy trend lines that is when uncertainty is at its highest, (this parallels findings in the RPS game! where betting during lowest entropy points brought best payoff!)
Similar chart can be constructed for entire prediction sequence (not just Padovan or some other arbitrary "well behaved" sequence)
Different lottery game require different scale (the above fits well with 20/80 game).
Immediate prediction for NY P10 game is that there will be >=7 hits in the Padovan sequence (even knowing that brings HUGE advantage into the game) timing this event is exactly subject of this blog entry!
Some explanations follow:
1. Red line shows total number of predictions being made where predictions are coming from a reduced number field that is < 80 using numbers from sorted sequences that have property of being on the "boundary" of next "potential" frequency (potential as it is not known obviously if the number will hit or not, in some respect this is to high degree arbitrary choice of smaller lottery matrix), slope trends upwards as frequency accumulate of course and there is more and more numbers to choose from.
2. Green line represents total number of hits when matched between result of the draw (for that day) and numbers from reduced set.
3. Blue line represents Padovan numbers that matched.
Few interesting points:
1. Padovan numbers settle approximately at 5 hits, regardless of increased number of predictions (red line), it also exhibits interesting oscillatory behavior and to great extent coincides with the green line (spikes in hits) .
Chance for > 5 in Padovan hits increases after approx. > 70 draws, the possibility of 0 hits in Padovans also decreases substantially
Overall, winning this game might be equated to "guessing" the right slope of green and blue line, the chart also shows that there might indeed be a fractal structure beneath of it all.
more research will follow, (computation of fractal dimension, and LLE) as well as trending other games using the above.
Compiled yet another statistics this time for the New York Pick 10 (Keno) game. (Trying to ultimate to devise a "model" to inject entropy, cluster density, Lyapunov threshold and others, I can't use blind "lottery" matrix, need to reduce probability pool substantially even if artificially. Work is ongoing to assemble and research tools in domain from stochastic analysis, chaos theory all the way to catastrophe theory
Data was assembled for the last 132 draws between 03/20/2009 and 07/27/2009 and simulation run to detect optimal time window when a game play using frequency/number transition would yield best performance.
Idea is to detect best possible entry into the game for highest possible hit/total ratio in a reduced number field
In example, if we would enter the game for the day 07/25 , we would capture 16 numbers (19 - duplicates) in the field of 65, and even though this is still high number of possibilities it does offer a glimmer of hope for a better result!
Draw Sequence: 130 -----------------------------------------------------------
Draw 07/25/2009 01 06 07 09 11 21 24 31 35 36 38 41 43 52 55 65 66 71 72 74
Number/Frequency (Sorted by Frequency)
Number 02 63 61 70 43 08 68 77 09 16 23 33 48 07 39 53 64 22 12 26
Frequency 22 22 23 23 24 25 25 25 26 26 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 28 29 29
Number 27 47 76 03 06 17 51 54 04 21 36 46 58 62 24 34 38 44 52 72
Frequency 29 29 29 30 30 30 30 30 31 31 31 31 31 31 32 32 32 32 32 32
Number 78 01 11 45 75 79 30 41 49 55 57 10 50 65 67 74 19 20 25 60
Frequency 32 33 33 33 33 33 34 34 34 34 34 35 35 35 35 35 36 36 36 36
Number 66 69 18 28 35 40 42 59 15 31 05 56 73 13 14 71 32 80 29 37
Frequency 36 36 37 37 37 37 37 37 38 38 39 39 40 41 41 41 42 43 44 46
Predictions made on: 07/25/2009 for the next draw:
02 63 02 63 61 61 70 43 43 08 68 77 09 16 48 07 39 64 22 12 12 26 27 76 03 06 54 04 21 62 24 34 78 01 11 79 30 41 57 10 50 74 19 20 69 18 28 59 15 31 31 05 56 56 73 13 13 14 71 71 32 80 80 29 37
[65 Numbers]
Matched [For Date]: 07/26/2009 77 09 16 39 26 06 24 01 79 69 15 13 13 71 71 80 80 29 37 [Total = 19]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Further expanded chaos toolkit by adding new process to calculate Fractal Dimension in a Time Series.
Below are sample runs using RPS game model (graph 1 and graph 2), scaling property is clearly visible, (scaling property is common to fractals and an indicator that time series under study is most likely chaotic)
Calculations were performed with the help of software FD3 (see ref. 1) C language was ported to C++ and several tests were conducted to verify validity of the implementation from other sources (including successful calculation of the Fractal Dimension of the coast of Great Britain)
Fractal Dimension, might offer yet another way for entry/exit game strategy, we will at some point take time to model P3 and P4 games to translate individual number probability trajectories and apply to them exactly the same techniques as we are doing with RPS game (RPS is a stochastic game already, but with key important difference being that there is a learning algorithm that recalculates opposite player probability, nevertheless player's choice is still determined by the RNG)
It is highly interesting if: entropy/ fractal dimension/hurst exponent (not yet implemented and verified)/ lyapunov exponent and yet to be modeled: nsb-entropy (hardest but with highest potential) can be made applicable in lottery games. this question is still very much open.
It is also interesting that RPS game exhibits similar Fractal Dimension as Spectrum of Fibonacci Hamiltonian (0.88137) (see ref. 2 and 3)
Graph 1 (500 Iterations)
Graph 2 (1000 Iterations):
References:
1. FD3 Software - written by John Sarraille and Peter DiFalco, using ideas from "A FAST ALGORITHM TO DETERMINE FRACTAL DIMENSION BY BOX COUNTING", by Liebovitch and Toth, Physics Letters A, 141, 386-390 (1989).
2. From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fractal_dimension
3. List of fractals by Hausdorff Dimension (Fractal Dimension)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fractals_by_Hausdorff_dimension
First a little background, what is Entropy ?
According to Wiki entry (ref. 1) In information theory, entropy is a measure of the uncertainty associated with a random variable. (there are other types of entropies such as associated with thermodynamics, but they don't apply in our context)
The concept was introduced by Claude E. Shannon in his 1948 paper "A Mathematical Theory of Communication". (ref. 2)
Very short way to describe information entropy (H) is to understand it in terms of measure of certainty (maximum certainty H = 1.0) or uncertainty (maximum uncertainty H = 0.0) and of course anything in between (0.0 < H < 1.0) representing degree of (un) certainty in the information content.
For the purpose of using it in a random strategy game (ie RPS) we want to measure value of using H in timing profitable entry into the game when certainty of the information is at the lowest (H = 0.0) (see graph 1).
These single events (H = 0.0) were measured to be few (in the span of 100 game iterations) and surprisingly result in up-wards of 50% (Win/Total ratio) gain! when measured against a player that does "blind" bets.
Below, is application (ref. 3) console output representing run using 2 types of strategies (0 strategy (-) and strategy employing entropy measurement with a threshold of 0, that is a bets are made <=> [only and only iff] Entropy H = 0.0
Each run (total of 5) consists of 525 game iterations, notice player using Entropy strategy places significantly less bets than player using no strategy and betting on every single game occurence. Results are consistent and show not only gains but also that no single game resulted in the loss bet.
Strategy without(-)
Total Game Iterations: 525 Super Agent Played: 525 times. Wins: 179 Losses: 170 Ties: 176 Ratio Win/Total: 0.340952
Strategy with (+) Entropy (sampling time window: 5, Threshold min: 0, max: 0)
Total Game Iterations: 525 Super Agent Played: 49 times. Wins: 35 Losses: 14 Ties: 0 Ratio Win/Total: 0.714286 [GAIN of 2 x]
Press any key to continue . . .
Strategy without(-)
Total Game Iterations: 525 Super Agent Played: 525 times. Wins: 167 Losses: 176 Ties: 182 Ratio Win/Total: 0.318095
Strategy with (+) Entropy (sampling time window: 5, Threshold min: 0, max: 0)
Total Game Iterations: 525 Super Agent Played: 56 times. Wins: 39 Losses: 15 Ties: 2 Ratio Win/Total: 0.696429 [GAIN of 2 x]
Press any key to continue . . .
Strategy without(-)
Total Game Iterations: 525 Super Agent Played: 525 times. Wins: 194 Losses: 150 Ties: 181 Ratio Win/Total: 0.369524
Strategy with (+) Entropy (sampling time window: 5, Threshold min: 0, max: 0)
Total Game Iterations: 525 Super Agent Played: 39 times. Wins: 23 Losses: 16 Ties: 0 Ratio Win/Total: 0.589744 [GAIN]
Press any key to continue . . .
Strategy without(-)
Total Game Iterations: 525 Super Agent Played: 525 times. Wins: 172 Losses: 182 Ties: 171 Ratio Win/Total: 0.327619
Strategy with (+) Entropy (sampling time window: 5, Threshold min: 0, max: 0)
Total Game Iterations: 525 Super Agent Played: 52 times. Wins: 34 Losses: 17 Ties: 1 Ratio Win/Total: 0.653846 [GAIN]
Press any key to continue . . .
Strategy without(-)
Total Game Iterations: 525 Super Agent Played: 525 times. Wins: 169 Losses: 161 Ties: 195 Ratio Win/Total: 0.321905 [GAIN]
Strategy with (+) Entropy (sampling time window: 5, Threshold min: 0, max: 0)
Total Game Iterations: 525 Super Agent Played: 21 times. Wins: 13 Losses: 8 Ties: 0 Ratio Win/Total: 0.619048
Press any key to continue . . .
Graph 1 showcases a sample run of a Super Agent making bets against Player ONE using his total Entropy derived from total sequence of his bets
a pseudo code used in calculating his total entropy is: entropy := probability[event type] * log (1 / probability[event type]) for v = R, P, S
Reference:
1. Entropy From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Entropy_(Information_theory)
2. Claude E. Shannon "A Mathematical Theory of Communication"
http://cm.bell-labs.com/cm/ms/what/shannonday/shannon1948.pdf
3. Application Source code (Entropy methods added):
https://members.lotterypost.com/edge/programs/src/rps_game.h
https://members.lotterypost.com/edge/programs/src/rps_game.cpp
We will be adding entropy studies into random numerical/pattern sequences research.
This research sparked my interest as it pertains directly to undersampled data.
Reference 3 points out possible applications of this algorithm:
Dynamical systems
1. Complexity of dynamics
2. Dimensions of strange attractors
as well as
"rare events statistics"
Reference 3, is actually extremely interesting even outside of theme of study we are doing (random games, random sequences), in fact, NSB Entropy is used by bio-physicist to study "emergence" of intelligent behaviour...
References:
1. The nsb-entropy project is devoted to implementation and practical use of the NSB algorithm for estimation of entropy and related information-theoretic quantities
from undersampled discrete data
http://nsb-entropy.sourceforge.net/
2. (Formal paper) Entropy and inference, revisited by Ilya Nemenman, Fariel Shafee, William Bialek
http://xxx.lanl.gov/abs/physics/0108025
3. (Power Point Presentation) A Bayesian Estimator of Entropies in a Severely Undersampled Regime: Theory and Applications to the Neural Code) by Ilya Nemenman
